I saw this on the Seattle I saw this on the Seattle blog. Was curious what the feedback would be in our little blogosphere.
UCGal
March 6, 2011 @
10:46 AM
I have a coworker who wants I have a coworker who wants to retire, but needs the equity to make it happen. He’s waiting for prices to come back up.
Jazzman
March 7, 2011 @
9:16 AM
Judging by the lack on Judging by the lack on listings in my area (and alternative areas I’ve been looking), and the number of conversations I’ve had with brokers at open houses, I’d say a significant number are waiting for a recovery in prices. But I think this depends on the demographic. Those who don’t need to sell, and who have significant equity built up in their homes, i.e. baby-boomers, and who have forestalled retirement plans anyway are the main contenders. I believe it is significant enough to balance out (to some extent) the increase in inventory brought on by foreclosures. What is interesting is that very few sellers blog, so feedback is almost zilch.
NotCranky
March 7, 2011 @
9:26 AM
How many people have bought How many people have bought their retirement house at recent lows, or will buy it soon and then sell current home when and if retirement+ good time to sell coincide?
bearishgurl
March 7, 2011 @
2:30 PM
Rustico wrote:How many people [quote=Rustico]How many people have bought their retirement house at recent lows, or will buy it soon and then sell current home when and if retirement+ good time to sell coincide?[/quote]
I am considering doing this before the end of 2011, spiffing it up a little and immediately offering a long-term lease to tenants in my retirement home.
I will then list my current home 3 years from now, in the spring of 2014 and if I should accept a good offer, I’ll give my tenants at least 30 days notice to vacate.
I believe I might fare much better price-wise on my retirement-home purchase if I did this. However, I would likely have to pay for property manager services if I purchased a retirement home out of county.
I’m likely not the only “baby boomer” who has considered taking this route.
Chunkymutt
March 7, 2011 @
10:02 PM
I’d hate to be the one that I’d hate to be the one that tells you this, but…prices are never going back to where they’ve been for the last 10 years in San Diego. The only reason prices got as high as they did is simple. They were giving anyone a 500K loan!!! Less supply, cheap credit, more demand…bidding wars over 50 year old homes that were termite damaged sitting on a 3000 sq ft. lot….Here is a preview of the next four years. Once the Banks trickle the shadow inventory through, credit is going to become very expensive. Once the Fed increases the rate at which people borrow money…there are going to be fewer and fewer people who qualify to purchas a home. We are going back to the good ol’ days of 20% down. People who have cash are going to make out like bandits, and people who purchased a home for 600K in 2005 can only expect to get half of that price in 2015…if they’re lucky…if they have Mello Roos or Added Value taxes attached to their homes…buona fortuna!
bearishgurl
March 7, 2011 @
10:40 PM
Welcome, Chunkymutt! This is Welcome, Chunkymutt! This is all fine with me. I don’t need to make a killing. I bought ten years ago and still have the same purchase-money assumable loan. You may ask, why would anyone want to assume a loan which would only cover half or less of the purchase price? Well, I’ll tell you why. They’re cheap to assume, easier to qualify for and a buyer can close in less than three weeks. There will also be only 17 years or less remaining on it when I get ready to sell. Every time a decent property (not longtime stripped down rental home) is listed in my ‘hood (or word of mouth gets around that the owners are THINKING of listing it), it is snapped up by a neighbor very quickly (3 days to 3 weeks). The neighbor doesn’t buy it for themselves, they buy it for their children, in laws, brother, sister or parents. If they are buying it for children or siblings, it will be put in the name of the children/siblings. It will actually be those buyers who will assume my loan. The neighbor will contribute the cash.
I probably won’t even have to put it on the MLS. I will just spread the word and perhaps offer to pay a co-broke fee and my place will be in escrow. In 2010, a house sold two houses down from me to a brother of another neighbor. It was sold the same day the sign was being put in the yard. The brother and his wife live in AZ. So far they have “visited” the house once. A gardener comes once a week and the porch lights are automatic. It is fully furnished and waiting for them when they come to SD. There are several “vacant but not really” houses like this in my vicinity. They are nearly all owned free and clear. We have no Mello Roos or HOA around here and our average lot size is 7000 – 8000 sf. Many surrounding lots are .5 to 1.5 AC.
Most of my neighbors are very unassuming and look, act and drive like regular folks. They have been living well under their means for so long that many are now worth a small fortune!
I hope all the changes you are forecasting take place, Chunkymutt. “Wanting” to be a homeowner and actually “being” a successful long term homeowner are two completely different animals. Homeownership isn’t for everyone. There SHOULD be a lot of “vetting” before being granted the right to use OPM (“other people’s money”) as leverage. I am looking forward to more stability in the market. This is America and it’s really okay to pay cash.
sdrealtor
March 7, 2011 @
11:33 PM
I lover it! Chula I lover it! Chula Vista…everyone wants to live there! Bi-winning!
an
March 7, 2011 @
11:46 PM
Chunkymutt wrote:I’d hate to [quote=Chunkymutt]I’d hate to be the one that tells you this, but…prices are never going back to where they’ve been for the last 10 years in San Diego. The only reason prices got as high as they did is simple. They were giving anyone a 500K loan!!! Less supply, cheap credit, more demand…bidding wars over 50 year old homes that were termite damaged sitting on a 3000 sq ft. lot….Here is a preview of the next four years. Once the Banks trickle the shadow inventory through, credit is going to become very expensive. Once the Fed increases the rate at which people borrow money…there are going to be fewer and fewer people who qualify to purchas a home. We are going back to the good ol’ days of 20% down. People who have cash are going to make out like bandits, and people who purchased a home for 600K in 2005 can only expect to get half of that price in 2015…if they’re lucky…if they have Mello Roos or Added Value taxes attached to their homes…buona fortuna![/quote]
Never is a very long time. I’m 100% sure you’ll be wrong on that one. Also, a blanket 50% off peak price is so 2007. Let me know when I can pick up something like this one: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/325-La-Amatista-Rd-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16763937_zpid/ for 50% off its 2005 sold price. $575k for a beach bungalow 2 blocks from the ocean in Del Mar sitting on a 8k sq-ft lot isn’t too shabby.
(former)FormerSanDiegan
March 8, 2011 @
8:04 AM
Chunkymutt wrote:
…prices [quote=Chunkymutt]
…prices are never going back to where they’ve been for the last 10 years in San Diego. [/quote]
March 6, 2011 @ 10:35 AM
I saw this on the Seattle
I saw this on the Seattle blog. Was curious what the feedback would be in our little blogosphere.
March 6, 2011 @ 10:46 AM
I have a coworker who wants
I have a coworker who wants to retire, but needs the equity to make it happen. He’s waiting for prices to come back up.
March 7, 2011 @ 9:16 AM
Judging by the lack on
Judging by the lack on listings in my area (and alternative areas I’ve been looking), and the number of conversations I’ve had with brokers at open houses, I’d say a significant number are waiting for a recovery in prices. But I think this depends on the demographic. Those who don’t need to sell, and who have significant equity built up in their homes, i.e. baby-boomers, and who have forestalled retirement plans anyway are the main contenders. I believe it is significant enough to balance out (to some extent) the increase in inventory brought on by foreclosures. What is interesting is that very few sellers blog, so feedback is almost zilch.
March 7, 2011 @ 9:26 AM
How many people have bought
How many people have bought their retirement house at recent lows, or will buy it soon and then sell current home when and if retirement+ good time to sell coincide?
March 7, 2011 @ 2:30 PM
Rustico wrote:How many people
[quote=Rustico]How many people have bought their retirement house at recent lows, or will buy it soon and then sell current home when and if retirement+ good time to sell coincide?[/quote]
I am considering doing this before the end of 2011, spiffing it up a little and immediately offering a long-term lease to tenants in my retirement home.
I will then list my current home 3 years from now, in the spring of 2014 and if I should accept a good offer, I’ll give my tenants at least 30 days notice to vacate.
I believe I might fare much better price-wise on my retirement-home purchase if I did this. However, I would likely have to pay for property manager services if I purchased a retirement home out of county.
I’m likely not the only “baby boomer” who has considered taking this route.
March 7, 2011 @ 10:02 PM
I’d hate to be the one that
I’d hate to be the one that tells you this, but…prices are never going back to where they’ve been for the last 10 years in San Diego. The only reason prices got as high as they did is simple. They were giving anyone a 500K loan!!! Less supply, cheap credit, more demand…bidding wars over 50 year old homes that were termite damaged sitting on a 3000 sq ft. lot….Here is a preview of the next four years. Once the Banks trickle the shadow inventory through, credit is going to become very expensive. Once the Fed increases the rate at which people borrow money…there are going to be fewer and fewer people who qualify to purchas a home. We are going back to the good ol’ days of 20% down. People who have cash are going to make out like bandits, and people who purchased a home for 600K in 2005 can only expect to get half of that price in 2015…if they’re lucky…if they have Mello Roos or Added Value taxes attached to their homes…buona fortuna!
March 7, 2011 @ 10:40 PM
Welcome, Chunkymutt! This is
Welcome, Chunkymutt! This is all fine with me. I don’t need to make a killing. I bought ten years ago and still have the same purchase-money assumable loan. You may ask, why would anyone want to assume a loan which would only cover half or less of the purchase price? Well, I’ll tell you why. They’re cheap to assume, easier to qualify for and a buyer can close in less than three weeks. There will also be only 17 years or less remaining on it when I get ready to sell. Every time a decent property (not longtime stripped down rental home) is listed in my ‘hood (or word of mouth gets around that the owners are THINKING of listing it), it is snapped up by a neighbor very quickly (3 days to 3 weeks). The neighbor doesn’t buy it for themselves, they buy it for their children, in laws, brother, sister or parents. If they are buying it for children or siblings, it will be put in the name of the children/siblings. It will actually be those buyers who will assume my loan. The neighbor will contribute the cash.
I probably won’t even have to put it on the MLS. I will just spread the word and perhaps offer to pay a co-broke fee and my place will be in escrow. In 2010, a house sold two houses down from me to a brother of another neighbor. It was sold the same day the sign was being put in the yard. The brother and his wife live in AZ. So far they have “visited” the house once. A gardener comes once a week and the porch lights are automatic. It is fully furnished and waiting for them when they come to SD. There are several “vacant but not really” houses like this in my vicinity. They are nearly all owned free and clear. We have no Mello Roos or HOA around here and our average lot size is 7000 – 8000 sf. Many surrounding lots are .5 to 1.5 AC.
Most of my neighbors are very unassuming and look, act and drive like regular folks. They have been living well under their means for so long that many are now worth a small fortune!
I hope all the changes you are forecasting take place, Chunkymutt. “Wanting” to be a homeowner and actually “being” a successful long term homeowner are two completely different animals. Homeownership isn’t for everyone. There SHOULD be a lot of “vetting” before being granted the right to use OPM (“other people’s money”) as leverage. I am looking forward to more stability in the market. This is America and it’s really okay to pay cash.
March 7, 2011 @ 11:33 PM
I lover it! Chula
I lover it! Chula Vista…everyone wants to live there! Bi-winning!
March 7, 2011 @ 11:46 PM
Chunkymutt wrote:I’d hate to
[quote=Chunkymutt]I’d hate to be the one that tells you this, but…prices are never going back to where they’ve been for the last 10 years in San Diego. The only reason prices got as high as they did is simple. They were giving anyone a 500K loan!!! Less supply, cheap credit, more demand…bidding wars over 50 year old homes that were termite damaged sitting on a 3000 sq ft. lot….Here is a preview of the next four years. Once the Banks trickle the shadow inventory through, credit is going to become very expensive. Once the Fed increases the rate at which people borrow money…there are going to be fewer and fewer people who qualify to purchas a home. We are going back to the good ol’ days of 20% down. People who have cash are going to make out like bandits, and people who purchased a home for 600K in 2005 can only expect to get half of that price in 2015…if they’re lucky…if they have Mello Roos or Added Value taxes attached to their homes…buona fortuna![/quote]
Never is a very long time. I’m 100% sure you’ll be wrong on that one. Also, a blanket 50% off peak price is so 2007. Let me know when I can pick up something like this one: http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/325-La-Amatista-Rd-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16763937_zpid/ for 50% off its 2005 sold price. $575k for a beach bungalow 2 blocks from the ocean in Del Mar sitting on a 8k sq-ft lot isn’t too shabby.
March 8, 2011 @ 8:04 AM
Chunkymutt wrote:
…prices
[quote=Chunkymutt]
…prices are never going back to where they’ve been for the last 10 years in San Diego. [/quote]
I’d take the other side of that bet any time.