Piggington's Evoloution-when will housing prices become the discussion again.

User Forum Topic
Submitted by temeculaguy on March 7, 2019 - 12:48am

As an OG of this site I have dropped in every few months only to close the window in disgust to see what my once loved forum has become. I have different motives today than I did back then. I bought eleven years ago after the biggest bubble in my lifetime and I will always credit this place with how I managed to time the market. Now I'm curious as my children are now adults, college grads and in the workforce, I want to give them advice that is timely as far as purchases or renting goes.

But alas, the site is awash in liberal drivel, socialism, politics and trump derangement syndrome. What the hell happened? This place was the "red pill" to the main stream media circa 2006 and look at it now. To quote Bunk from the Wire "Makes me sick how far we done fell" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmgghlEagA

So when does piggington become a forum for the economic punk rockers again, those who would never listen to the main stream media and want to beat the sheeple and the system. Or will it remain a place democratic socialists go when the Rachael Maddow show has a guest host?

I've also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene, but wisdom prevents me from doing so because they need to age out of it. As the old saying goes, "if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain." They need to age out of it and I will not convince them otherwise, however at some point someone has to declare "adult swim, everyone under 18, out of the pool." Plus I hate politics and despise both sides and never put that much faith in another human.

BTW interesting history about that socialist quote, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24...
there's debate about who said it and what they said, but any of those credited and any of the versions still make the point.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 7, 2019 - 8:00am.

Long time TG,

Other than big money escaping SD and LA moving to TV not too much happening on the housing front IMO.

Ontario airport and surrounding area's RE and biz is on fire.

Submitted by moneymaker on March 7, 2019 - 9:10am.

Like the Winston Churchill quote and bookmarked the site. Also bought post bubble, 10 years ago. So real estate is not on my priority list. Still fun to watch as my wife seems to be addicted to it. The stock market is also starting to get boring, Trump needs to spout off more often to shake things up, got about 30% cash waiting for something to happen. For lent I think I'll become anti-commercial and try not to spend any more money than I need to. Really should feel lucky that we bought when we did, got $8000 from government, great rate now (2.625%) on a 15 year loan, and currently have lots of equity.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 7, 2019 - 9:28am.

Well this should give the local RE a boost.

Apple (AAPL) has announced it's bringing 1,200 employees to a San Diego office over the next three years, growing its presence right in the backyard of its current legal rival Qualcomm.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 7, 2019 - 12:41pm.

Moneymaker, you know that Winston Churchill was a drunk and sexual harasser, right?

Submitted by SDNative2 on March 7, 2019 - 7:05pm.

Dear Piggs, I've been on here three years but lurking longer. I'm getting to a point to buy a primary residence again mid-summer. I only want to buy in 92054, West of the 5. Prices seem to have topped out for both SFRs and condos (but no multi's that remotely pencil out at all.) Rents are lowering somewhat I've noticed. Should I rent one more year? Do you think coastal O'side prices might depress a little bit? What do you think of a place like North Coast Village (where most are Air BnB'd), if I could pick up a 1 BR for $450K + $500 HOA?

Thoughts?
Thank you...

Submitted by moneymaker on March 7, 2019 - 8:26pm.

Not surprised at all, most historical figures have skeletons in their closets. One of the worst, who I used to look up to as a kid was Thomas Alvin Edison, he electrocuted an elephant to prove DC was safer than AC, here's the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uByT6Zdphwc

Submitted by spdrun on March 8, 2019 - 8:54am.

Edison didn't hold the patents on AC power distribution, and his DC system was unviable outside of cities. So he held demonstrations of the "dangers" of AC current and heavily pushed the electric chair, which ran on AC power. I think the tagline was "Do you want the hangman's current running through your walls?"

Small consulation was that the Tesla/Westinghouse AC system won out in the end anyway...

Edison: "Invention is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration."
Tesla: "If he was able to math, he wouldn't perspire so much."

Cruel irony of this was that Tesla died forgotten and Edison died a rich man.

Submitted by phaster on March 8, 2019 - 10:07am.

"red pill"

huh,...

AAPL bringing 1,200 employees is indeed a good sign that the area has telecomm knowledge (which is field of growing demand),...

https://www.piggington.com/apple_aapl_ha...

BUT looking at the big picture there is a storm that too few know is brewing

Quote:

Where Do Households (w/ in California) Have the Most Money After Housing?
https://www.zillow.com/research/metros-m...

looking at the interactive graph seems Los Angeles is worst off than San Diego (for real estate affordability),... BUT one item not taken into account in the zillow study and other real estate centric studies is the systemic problem of public pensions

have not looked into detail(s) how the LA public pension portfolio is structured, but here in SD the big problem seems to be the three decades plus standard operation procedure of a 13th check which looking at the black box, is exponentially producing debt obligation (which the front page news article in the UT should have reported on)

www.TinyURL.com/13thcheck

given the court ruling just announced

Quote:

California Supreme Court curbs a pension benefit but preserves ‘California Rule’
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-m...

people should seriously ponder "what if" nothing is done to directly address issues like the "California rule" which implies taxpayers are the financial backstop for shortfalls of public pension portfolios because the "California rule" like credit default swaps from too big to fail banks, have taxpayers as the implied financial backstop

www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning

bottom line,... even before the eventual storm hits, the system is set up w/ two massive systemic head winds which are setup to hit households w/ debt obligations that are going to be difficult/impossible to deal w/ so as a result I'd say real estate is going to take an eventual hit (so better have a hedge strategy in place to beat the sheeple and the system)

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 8, 2019 - 10:30am.

For me it’s easy to become liberal in old age. You’re supposed to grow intellectually and become wiser with age.
I don’t talk as much to some old friends because they have stagnated intellectually.

I don’t watch Rachel Maddow. I like to watch lectures at Asia Society and Center for Strategic and Intenational Studies. That kind of talk is such more more interesting.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 8, 2019 - 10:50am.

I don't want to get too far off RE topic in this thread but even the dedicated democrat Warren Buffett said he would never buy RE or open a biz in LA or San Francisco becuse of the unfunded pension liability.

Submitted by flu on March 8, 2019 - 11:08am.

it amazes me how many people would rather soak and bake in doomsday mentality despite how over and over again the sky has not fallen and the world has not ended.

All these folks soaking in the economic doomsday scenario and dreaming for it are no different than the crazy religious nut jobs that think Jesus Christ is coming and the end of the world is near.

I suspect folks that fall into this trap of doomsday thinking have a miserable life and only wish other people end up as miserable as them so they feel better. News flash... ain't gonna happen... There's got to be some mental medical disorder that describes this...And hopefully a public healthcare option in the US will eventually help people get treated.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 8, 2019 - 11:08am.

LOL I don't think the sky is falling,

But even former gov Brown said, only a reasonable pension should be guaranteed, I think leaving a door open for default and restructure.

Submitted by flu on March 8, 2019 - 11:45am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
LOL I don't think the sky is falling,

But even former gov Brown said, only a reasonable pension should be guaranteed, I think leaving a door open for default and restructure.

I wasnt talking about you. Come on now, I know you're pretty sensible.... I was talking about a lot of the other "ooo it's going to crash and burn anyway now" that came before you...

And there's got to be a medical diagnosis for those that get high on seeing other people fail.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 8, 2019 - 11:54am.

Deficit hawks have been predicting a catastrophic crash for a long time now.
Ron Paul with his dollar debasement theories.

Debt ceiling anyone?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 8, 2019 - 12:38pm.

flu wrote:

And there's got to be a medical diagnosis for those that get high on seeing other people fail.

Medical diagnosis is a cop out to avoid personal responsibility. Notice now that as more people are opioid addicted, it’s no longer weakness of character, low-life culture, or criminal behavior, but a medical condition people have no control over. Or it’s the Mexican drug pushers.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on March 8, 2019 - 1:34pm.

TG,
In the past I've always enjoyed your posts. Your writing has always been original, often witty, and sometimes downright funny. But this post... well, let's say it's just not up to your standards. Let's take a look at what you wrote:

temeculaguy wrote:
But alas, the site is awash in liberal drivel, socialism, politics and trump derangement syndrome. What the hell happened? This place was the "red pill" to the main stream media circa 2006 and look at it now. To quote Bunk from the Wire "Makes me sick how far we done fell" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wmgghlEagA

So when does piggington become a forum for the economic punk rockers again, those who would never listen to the main stream media and want to beat the sheeple and the system. Or will it remain a place democratic socialists go when the Rachael Maddow show has a guest host?

So what is it you'd like to see discussed? Non-main stream economic topics? The only thing that I can think of that fits that bill is Modern Monetary Theory and how it is being used (abused?) by some to justify things it doesn't justify. But the writing between the lines of your post leads me to think that any discussion of MMT would be dismissed by you as crazy socialist crap. The rantings of immature liberals who haven't got a clue.

Perhaps you'd like to discuss how we need to curb deficits and restore some financial responsibility to our government. But that's hardly non-main stream, so presumably not.

Maybe you'd like to talk about housing. Certainly we can agree that's a good topic. The problem is there isn't much to say. Housing prices continue to go up. (Maybe slowing their pace a bit now, but meh.. not very controversial there.) So, what would we discuss?

temeculaguy wrote:
I've also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene, but wisdom prevents me from doing so because they need to age out of it. As the old saying goes, "if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain." They need to age out of it and I will not convince them otherwise, however at some point someone has to declare "adult swim, everyone under 18, out of the pool." Plus I hate politics and despise both sides and never put that much faith in another human.

BTW interesting history about that socialist quote, https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/02/24...
there's debate about who said it and what they said, but any of those credited and any of the versions still make the point.

I first heard a variation of this quote when I was in my early 20s. (Maybe even high school) And yes, I admit it, I was pretty liberal at that time. At the time I found the quote condescending. Then when I was in my 40s, registered as a Republican, and a small business owner, it seemed to make sense. But now that I'm in my 60s, it just seems like another platitude we tell ourselves to reassure ourselves that we are right.

Pehaps there should be a third part to this quote? Seems to me that it's really saying, if you don't have a sense of compassion when your 20 your an ass, if you haven't had that sense of compassion beat out of you by the time your 40, you're a slow learner. But is losing any sense of compassion for others a good thing? Given that rewording maybe the third part should be, if you don't regain your sense of compassion by the time you are 60 you aren't trying.

Perhaps the topic worth discussion is: As we change going through life is it a line going from idealistic youth to cynical middle age to angry old person, or is it a circle from idealist to conservative and then back to optimistic? Or maybe some other variation? And why do some people seem to follow the path to anger and some don't? Do we pick our path, or is our fate predestined? And what does your path say about the person you are?

Or maybe that's just a bunch of touchy feely liberal crap. You call it.

XBoxBoy

Submitted by phaster on March 8, 2019 - 2:36pm.

flu wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
LOL I don't think the sky is falling,

But even former gov Brown said, only a reasonable pension should be guaranteed, I think leaving a door open for default and restructure.

I wasnt talking about you. Come on now, I know you're pretty sensible.... I was talking about a lot of the other "ooo it's going to crash and burn anyway now" that came before you...

And there's got to be a medical diagnosis for those that get high on seeing other people fail.

You talkin' to me?

huh,... thought this was water under the bridge

https://www.piggington.com/ot_dontfeedth...

or perhaps you have yet to face up to knock on effect of various medical issues?!

spdrun wrote:

March 5, 2019 - 1:23pm

Says the cancer patient who could become unable to work and end up dependent on social insurance at basically any time...

https://www.piggington.com/more_crazy_ta...

oh well, anyway to everyone else who might come across this thread,... FWIW there is an expression familiar to pilots and aeronautical engineers

Quote:

"Aviation in itself is not inherently dangerous. But to an even greater degree than the sea, it is terribly unforgiving of any carelessness, incapacity or neglect"

I mention this aviation safety reminder (which I grew up with) because the same mindset should be applied to investing (like when managing a public pension portfolio OR buying/managing RE investment properties)

the reason we are where we are is because of carelessness, incapacity AND neglect,... so just sayin' if the goal of the OP is to "become a forum for the economic punk rockers again" (which implies acknowledging the existence of systemic mismanagement),... better have a hedge strategy in place to beat the sheeple and the system (which is something Warren Buffett implied just a few days ago)

Quote:

Warren Buffett discusses ‘disaster’ contributing to Bay Area exodus in CNBC interview

...California’s unfunded public pensions are a hot topic, with taxpayers on the hook for making up any shortfalls in employee contributions or investment returns.

“If I were relocating into some state that had a huge unfunded pension plan, I'm walking into liabilities," Buffett said. "'Cause I mean, who knows whether they're gonna get it from the corporate income tax or my employees — you know, with personal income taxes or what. That liability isn't gonna — you can't ship it offshore or anything like that. And those are big numbers, really big numbers

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco...

Submitted by flu on March 8, 2019 - 3:04pm.

I'm still waiting for peak oil....

You know, that conviction that blew up in doomsday theorists face, royally...Funny no one likes to talk about it anymore... But hey, it's a great folklore, right up there with the entire John Titor timer traveler folklore..

Damn, there were a heck of a lot more dinosaurs that decayed than peak oil theorists estimated....

ha ha ha

Scientists 1, Conspiracy Theorists 0

Submitted by spdrun on March 8, 2019 - 5:26pm.

Wouldn't we be better off if peak oil HAD hit 20 years ago and we were updating the nation's electric grid to handle (say) 75% of vehicles being electric, electrifying freight lines, converting all oil heating systems, etc? Also, we'd have more clean, safe, and modern nuclear reactors as well as renewable power right now.

Cheap oil and gas are crutches that keep us from developing cleaner energy technologies.

Submitted by moneymaker on March 8, 2019 - 9:43pm.

Ok I'll give it a try, Of the big 3 home builders why can't one of them build a bunch of 3 bed/2 bath, 1200-1800 sq. ft. homes that are affordable preferably without HOA's.
Instead they build these McMansions thinking that people who already own homes are going to upgrade. Surprise! a lot of those people that own older smaller homes don't want the higher taxes and/or interest rates. Common sense to me, but I guess the 2 story McMansions on cookie cutter lots has better profit margins. Most first time home buyers don't need a McMansion! If anyone knows of a new build SFH in San Diego County that is a single story 3/2 for under 400k with no HOA let me know. There used to be some out in Campo a long time ago, those were the cheapest ones I can remember.

Submitted by flu on March 9, 2019 - 5:39am.

moneymaker wrote:
Ok I'll give it a try, Of the big 3 home builders why can't one of them build a bunch of 3 bed/2 bath, 1200-1800 sq. ft. homes that are affordable preferably without HOA's.
Instead they build these McMansions thinking that people who already own homes are going to upgrade. Surprise! a lot of those people that own older smaller homes don't want the higher taxes and/or interest rates. Common sense to me, but I guess the 2 story McMansions on cookie cutter lots has better profit margins. Most first time home buyers don't need a McMansion! If anyone knows of a new build SFH in San Diego County that is a single story 3/2 for under 400k with no HOA let me know. There used to be some out in Campo a long time ago, those were the cheapest ones I can remember.

you answered your own question.
There's still a healthy stream of these "McMansion" buyers such that builders don't need to build smaller
home. And they would rather build these larger homes since they have bigger margins. That might chsngr in the future...but for now, it's what it is.

And some of these smaller home owners probably got in at killer price or loan such that they can keep their smaller homes as rentals, given how much it costs to rent these days. your other tenants end up paying for your larger home's mortgage and property tax and HOA.

Submitted by Astrid Rey on March 9, 2019 - 8:38am.

I joined this site with plans of asking about real estate in Temecula. I remember the temeculaguy posts from years ago and always believed they were insightful. This post is very disappointing.

Trump Derangement Syndrome? You could not even come up with an original phrase?

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.p...

It is sad to see how Trump and his media have poisoned the mind of many good people. Over and over we hear people repeat the same old empty phrases and then congratulate themselves for their cleverness. The most ironic of these phrases of course is "mainstream media" LOL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWLjYJ4BzvI

Is this the quality, balanced journalism that you use?

When I read your post, I think of one word: "sheeple"

A very pathetic return, temeculaguy.

Submitted by zk on March 9, 2019 - 11:40pm.

temeculaguy wrote:

I've also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene…
But alas, the site is awash in liberal drivel, socialism, politics and trump derangement syndrome…
As the old saying goes, "if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain." They need to age out of it and I will not convince them otherwise, however at some point someone has to declare "adult swim, everyone under 18, out of the pool..."
Or will it remain a place democratic socialists go when the Rachael Maddow show has a guest host?...

Followed by

temeculaguy wrote:

I hate politics and despise both sides ...

You despise both sides? Really? Are you not proofreading your posts?

temeculaguy wrote:

I've also seen the treatment of some old friends by the rabid progressives and have been tempted to intervene, but wisdom prevents me from doing so because they need to age out of it.

“I could stand up for my old friends. But I’m not going to.” Very weak. I don’t know if you’re talking about me or not (I’m not a rabid progressive; I'm more of a left-leaning centrist with my positions on different issues spread across the spectrum, but I’m often perceived as a rabid progressive because of my passionate loathing of both trump and the right-wing propaganda machine). But if you are talking about me, I say bring it. I’d love to see a defense of the (in my opinion) indefensible positions I’ve attacked from somebody who’s actually capable of defending them (if such a person or such a defense exists). I don’t think you can. I think you hide behind what until this week was pretty much the consensus view that you knew what you were talking about (although even that, in retrospect, might’ve been influenced by your undeniable wit and charm) and your wise-old-OG status and you think you can just breezily say, “ah, they’ll age out of it” and everyone will bow to that. It’s bullshit. If you actually have an argument to make to "intervene" on behalf of your friends, then make it. If you don’t, then don’t claim to, or bullshit will be called.

temeculaguy wrote:

As the old saying goes, "if you are not a socialist by 20 you have no heart but if you are not a conservative by 40 you have no brain."

A brainless quote if ever there was one. There’s nothing there but the self-congratulation of older conservatives and those conservatives' disdain of liberals.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 9, 2019 - 4:24pm.

keep your eyes open 4 me in temecula TG. im nowadays riding a bicycle that is 12 feet tall with numerous flags.

seriously.

last seen today headed down ynez from the TYC [temec. yoga collective] where i am trying to become less up and down tight and more ligamentally progressive and fascia liberal, and booking down rancho calif.

no anti trump shit on my bike.

repressing my feelings (like i pray to the Lord that trump has a stroke and is frozen in his body and is treated like shit for a decade by nurses who despise him secretly and covertly torture him)

and instead went with a Christian theme of novelty license plates)

put on a PROUD AMERICAN CHRISTIAN license plate (has one of the christoan fishes with a flag inside) on the tall bike.....

plus a JESUS SAVES novelty plate even tho im jewish to try to generate good vibes from the edgy populace.

and flags of many lands

G-d i hate that proud american christian plate, with all my heart on at least 4 lev els of hatred... therefore it is perfect.

not sure whether tall bikes skew right or left wing.

but maybe i can attach wings somehow.

Submitted by flu on March 9, 2019 - 4:28pm.

ZK, I don't think TG was referring to you .. I think TG was referring to most of the threads BrianSD digs up to stir shit up over and over again.

Right BrianSD?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 9, 2019 - 5:04pm.

some days i think the tax code should be wayyyy more progressive but inversely. tax the first 25k at 40 perc, then up to 100k at 30 percent. up to 250k at 12 perc, then 2.5 percent up to one billion.

poor people arent good with money and richer people tend to deploy it better so, we should have have a progressively smaller tax upwards

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 10, 2019 - 12:37am.

Sad thing is that most Americans don’t understand the concept of progressive taxation. The marginal tax rate concept is hard for people to grasp. Whatever tax rate you’re talking about, they think it applies to all income. Are Americans the most intelligent people in the world?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 11, 2019 - 6:55pm.

what if your rate was randome each year like a lottery. some win some lose.

populace would like a tax lotto i think.

Submitted by temeculaguy on March 11, 2019 - 9:19pm.

Mea Culpa ZK, it was not my best work. I was frustrated. I haven't needed any insight into real estate for quite some time and now that I do have a need for some info I was frustrated that I couldn't find much.

I did find what was once on the cutting edge of economics had become a much different place. Your analysis of my diatribe was once reserved for statements put out by CEO's of mortgage companies and trade organizations. Nice to see the skills are still sharp if there was a conspiracy afoot. Perhaps there is no more boogeyman we can unite against.

It is possible that real estate is accurately priced, there is no large scale conspiracy like there was in 06, hence the lack of analysis. However looking at the rent to purchase ratio, it still seems off to me in some places and renting looks better especially for young couples in the twenties whose careers have just begun and may take some twists, turns and location changes in the next few years.

But I'll keep researching over the next year and I'll make it a point not to be a little more civil. However that was not an idiotic quote.

Submitted by temeculaguy on March 11, 2019 - 10:14pm.

duplicate

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