OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

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Submitted by svelte on December 11, 2015 - 7:41am

I apologize in advance for bringing up the topic (it is sure to be over-discussed next year!), but now is a good time to make predictions.

The primaries start in just a few weeks and bring clarity to who will be the final candidates.

So now is the opportune time to make predictions: who will be the final, post-convention candidate selections for US President of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and any other party you which to mention?

Bonus points for specifying who their running mate will be!

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 7, 2016 - 6:25pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
BG, you gonna to be very dissapointed.

Tomorrow, I'm hosting a little election watch party at my apartment. We're going to have global elite fare -- champagne, caviar, sushi. maybe a papaya shrimp salad... You know, the same stuff Trump serves at his super model parties.

Umm . . .

Methinks that FIH/brian (our "in-house transplant" from SD to LV) has been living in a self-imposed "condo bubble." He seems to be blissfully unaware what is actually going on amongst the masses of the "unwashed deplorables" in the streets of his esteemed (adopted) city and county :=0

Submitted by harvey on November 7, 2016 - 6:48pm.

The Confirmation Bias Bus Tour sounds like so much fun.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 7, 2016 - 8:02pm.

NV will go for Hillary. Early Hispanic voting is strongest ever.
I've been following NV closely. We'll the answer tomorrow.

BG, you know what they say about computers... garbage in, garbage out. Will you reprogram your computer if you're proven wrong? I will reprogram mine if I'm wrong.

Submitted by svelte on November 7, 2016 - 10:12pm.

I've been following the swing states pretty carefully too, and here is my prediction:

FL - Clinton
OH - Trump
PA - Clinton
MI - Clinton
NH - ? very unclear to me
NC - Trump
NV - Clinton
WI - Clinton
IA - Trump
VA - Clinton
ME - Clinton
AZ - Trump
CO - Clinton
NM - Clinton

A couple of those predictions go against current polling, but mail-in ballot stats influenced my prediction (mainly NV and FL).

And so it goes.

In mere hours, we'll know if we're led by Clown 1 or Clown 2.

Submitted by ltsdd on November 7, 2016 - 10:25pm.

If Clinton takes FL then it's pretty much over and NH is inconsequential. On the other hand if FL goes to trump, the election may come down to the 4 votes from NH.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on November 8, 2016 - 10:42am.

The BG trip with CA deplorables going to NV campaign reminded me of something ...

What the hell is Bernie Sanders doing all over billboards in California promoting a proposition in California that impacts Californians.

Did he move here or is he just getting paid as a spokeman ?

Submitted by ucodegen on November 8, 2016 - 2:08pm.

One prediction I can give on the election, is that voter turnout will be higher than normal. I saw the election rolls of voters and there were many mail-ins listed on the rolls, many many many more than I have ever seen. The polls where I went to before lunch were not that busy, particularly when compared to the registrar's lines.

As for accuracy of polls - it should be interesting. A group of voters that normally doesn't participate seems to be voting. Which group that is - I can't tell. It may split evenly along party lines -- or not.

Submitted by temeculaguy on November 15, 2016 - 1:25am.

temeculaguy wrote:
Kinda early for predictions but i say trump wins primary and election based on the current situation. He is in the lead and has the experts baffled without spending much.

Here's the rub fellow piggs, most Americans hate politicians and know they are being lied to. Trump may say offensive or even stupid things but even the stupid things feel more genuine than the others. I liked Kasich for his healthcare, Christie for numerous reasons and Rubio for many other reasons. But honestly my favorites were Fiorina and the Doc because they weren't politicians. Trump is another animal altogether, he says what people think, but afraid to say it. Voting is private, polls aren't. My thoughts are Trump beats the polls and the polls are in his favor.

Evil as it may seem, after San Bernadino, I saw cair on TV and was sick to my stomach, then saw Obama (who I voted for twice) and was sick again. Cair should be on TV snitching off anyone who even looks radicalized.

This site is a collections of intellectuals and economics geeks, but do not for a minute think we are a majority. Plus Hillary will lose the female vote, I know no women who like her. She stayed with a man that cheated more than a professional cyclist just for public opinion, that will bite her. Funny thing is, I voted for him too, twice, but I have no respect for a woman who stayed with him, he deserved to be an alimony payer despite his attributes.

Wow, once again i failed to place a bet in vegas or buy a stock. At some point I will trust my own analysis.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 15, 2016 - 10:44am.

That was a good call temecula guy.

I think i have a pretty good pulse of the country. But I missed the disaffection in the industrial east/Midwest.

What you said is true and affected Florida where the the old folks voted for Trump. But in California and new-economy cities and states such as Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Dallas County, even AZ, economics and demographics overcame the Trump factors.

Despite her shortcomings, Hillary did better than Obama in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and of course California. I think that Trump is the last stand of the old guard.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 1:25pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
That was a good call temecula guy.

I think i have a pretty good pulse of the country. But I missed the disaffection in the industrial east/Midwest.

What you said is true and affected Florida where the the old folks voted for Trump. But in California and new-economy cities and states such as Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Dallas County, even AZ, economics and demographics overcame the Trump factors.

Despite her shortcomings, Hillary did better than Obama in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and of course California. I think that Trump is the last stand of the old guard.

Um, FIH?? Not sure where you are getting your info from but Trump WON all those states but CA ... and CO, where he lost by 2.8%. It doesn't matter what happened in the election (and re-election) of Obama. He is on his way out and so is most of his "legacy." And Trump would have won CO but for (mostly) "progressive" millenials moving in its most populous counties (with JOBS) since the legalization of MJ (1/1/14) and registering to vote. The exceptions were El Paso (county seat: CO Sprs, which has a high "evangelical" population) and Weld (county seat: Greeley, which has a very high illegal immigrant population which has been stretching the gratuitousness of local charities there for decades). Those two populous counties voted Trump. HRC only won Pueblo County by .2% (199 votes), which is heavily (majority?) Latino and where the bulk of legal MJ is cultivated! CO has the possibility of reverting back to red in the next election cycle.

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/re...

The reasons are because CO state and local gubments are beyond fed up with the cost of "policing" the sales and use of recreational MJ, in spite of the public coffers its 35% + "sales tax" brings in. The law also created drivers on (often icy) mountainous roads who were impaired and a danger to everyone, sometimes heavily so and also mostly uninsured or relying on Medicaid.

The truth is, new incoming millenials just starting out have been priced out of rent in CO's blue counties (the counties with CU/CSU and most of the good jobs) for almost 10 years now. Only the well-established boomers from states with higher-priced housing can afford to "retire" in CO and often not even in the county of their choice due to prohibitive cost so they better hurry. Rent and RE prices in most of CO are higher than most of CA except within the priciest coastal enclaves. The areas with cheaper rent/RE prices in the Denver metro area are trailer-park-like transient h@llholes which have beat cops parked on every corner and are an onerous commute to major job centers (especially in the winter). For these reasons, millenials who have not doubled and tripled up in a house/unit with a long term lease that they can live with (or are part of a dual-income couple, BOTH permanently gainfully employed FT) are not going to be able to make it long-term in the Denver area, Boulder County or Larimer County (county seat: Ft Collins).

Once this shift takes place in CO (millenials leave for the likes of [more affordable] KS City and the boomers move in while the getting is good), CO will revert back to red and vote to repeal their short-sighted law to legalize recreational MJ.

I'm intimately familiar with all four corners of CO and everything in between, having lived there for ~10 years in my youth (which was a lo-o-o-o-ong time ago :=0) and making 1-4 road trips through CO nearly every year since then. I've spent 35 days there in the last five years in the rockies alone. I was last in CO 2.5 months ago, staying for 6 nights in 3 different counties. I have a full and complete understanding of its people, its culture and the (often stark) differences between its counties.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 1:24pm.

Well temeculaguy, if you're reading this thread, it appears you called the 2016 presidential election early on. I did also, but not as early as you, cuz I wasn't really paying attention to it until the end of Feb 2016.

However, you didn't stick around to "take the heat" from our resident passel of vocal, ultra-lib Piggs . . . simply for supporting Trump's candidacy. Sorry you missed out on that :=0

I would surmise that if I were as busy as you are, I wouldn't have stuck around here, either :=]

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 15, 2016 - 2:07pm.

BG, it does matter that Hillary did better than Obama in new-economy states.
The old economy turned against Hillary out of misplaced hopey changey to the old days.

Florida (old republican retirees) and the blue wall old-economy delivered a win for Trump.

The fact that Hillary was not inspiring but carried CO speaks volumes to Trump not being able to overcome new-economy demographics.

Show me where I'm wrong.... and BTW, who did your millennial kids vote for?

Submitted by njtosd on November 15, 2016 - 2:09pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I think that Trump is the last stand of the old guard.

According to Pew Research:

Clinton received a lower share of the vote among young voters (ages 18-29) than Obama received in 2012 or 2008. Young adults preferred Clinton over Trump by a wide 55%-37% margin; by comparison, Obama had a 60%-36% advantage over Romney in 2012 and a 66%-32% advantage over McCain in 2008.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/201...

At least according to these date, the Democrats are losing ground among the 18 - 29 age group and Republicans are gaining.

Submitted by harvey on November 15, 2016 - 2:57pm.

njtosd wrote:
At least according to these date, the Democrats are losing ground among the 18 - 29 age group and Republicans are gaining.

You took a few data points that are heavily confounded by the likability of Obama, Romney, McCain, and Hillary - and called that a trend?

Romney is hardly "old guard" - he created Obamacare.

Trump is a novel character but his message was about tradition. Remember, we are making America great, again.

It is a resurgence of the old guard, look at the characters he's dragged out for his cabinet. Of course none of them had much to do with America's past greatness.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 15, 2016 - 2:52pm.

Hillary got lower overall turnout among the young because young people don't vote unless the candidate is inspirational. If you want to believe that republicans are gaining, then so be it.

But Hillary did proportionally better than 2012 Obama in new-economy states and metropolitan areas

Southern California is new economy. You may support Trump but you're not in the majority. The people you talk to don't reflect where you live.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 2:56pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
.... Show me where I'm wrong.... and BTW, who did your millennial kids vote for?
They voted for Bernie in the primaries and then two of them had a crying fest in July in front of me because Bernie lost the nomination to HRC. AFAIK, none of them ended up voting in the general election.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 3:21pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
. . . Southern California is new economy. You may support Trump but you're not in the majority. The people you talk to don't reflect where you live.
As I posted here before, my actual precinct is registered roughly 1/3 D, 1/3 R and 1/3 I. I have no idea how it voted. My surrounding precincts which are similarly demographically-situated had the same voter registration characteristics, give or take 5 points. I know Dems and Independents who stated they were voting Trump but I don't know any Republicans who stated they would vote for HRC. If any Pigg could post a SD County precinct map of the results of the 2016 presidential election here, that would be helpful. OR, in the alternative, a CA Legislative District map. It is possible that not enough time has elapsed to come up with these maps. HRC won San Diego County by 17.1 points (a virtual landslide) but I don't yet know how the vote broke down in the individual precincts.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 15, 2016 - 3:06pm.

BG, your kids' voting patterns match what I said about young people. They want inspirational, all or nothing. They are too young to know that change is a slow process. Getting rid of old for new is how people remodel their houses, a little at a time. Few people have the wherewithal to do a top to bottom transformational remodel.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 3:10pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
. . . The fact that Hillary was not inspiring but carried CO speaks volumes to Trump not being able to overcome new-economy demographics.
The only "new-economy demographics" in CO were the thousands of incoming millenials who moved there in recent years for the legal weed. Were it not for legal weed, I believe CO would have gone red this election cycle.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 15, 2016 - 3:23pm.

Legal weed and the new economy in the boulder Denver area. Central Denver is pretty gentrified and hip, i hear.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 3:33pm.

Flyer in HI wrote:
Central Denver is pretty gentrified and hip, i hear.
It's been "gentrified" and "hip" since about 1969. The RE prices in Central Denver neighborhoods began escalating in about 1989 and have now gone thru the stratosphere, pricing almost all first-time buyers out as well as most subsequent buyers. In addition, most of the houses there which were suitable for flipping are now gone (just like SD).

Even with an interstate spur-loop now completed all around the Denver Metro area (with its northern portion a toll road), it is still an arduous commute to work centers for moderate and middle-income buyers who must almost always purchase in distant subdivisions (if they wish to buy a SFR). It is not uncommon for a Boulder County worker (where much of the tech firms are located) to spend 3.5 hours per day commuting, especially in the snow.

Just like in SD, whichever families have been most established in Denver (usually for several decades) win at the RE game.

Submitted by Hobie on November 15, 2016 - 4:11pm.

C-mon you guys. Now not just the 1% can hire Hillery for $250k speeches. I'm sure her wisdom could be had by high school graduations for cheap.

Submitted by bearishgurl on November 15, 2016 - 4:30pm.

Hobie wrote:
C-mon you guys. Now not just the 1% can hire Hillery for $250k speeches. I'm sure her wisdom could be had by high school graduations for cheap.
LOL . . .

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 15, 2016 - 8:02pm.

BG. yeah, I've been Denver a few times. I had friends who lived there.
Beginning the late 80s Denver became a California refugee destination. All CA refugee destinations become expensive... Portland is another one.

Submitted by zk on November 16, 2016 - 4:44pm.

One last prediction before I move on to more entertaining and productive endeavors.

Trump's presidency will be, at best, bad for the country, and at worst, a disaster for the world.

Trump and his cronies, and the right-wing noise machine, will find a way to blame the whole thing on the left, despite having the presidency, the senate, the house, and (soon) the supreme court.

Either that, or they will say everything is wonderful. Just like North Korea does.

If I ever have to eat those words, they'll taste like ribeye steak with red wine and Java Chip ice cream for desert. But I'm not holding my breath.

That prediction is if his presidency lasts for 4 years. Resignation or impeachment could happen before that.

Submitted by harvey on November 16, 2016 - 7:04pm.

zk wrote:
Trump's presidency will be, at best, bad for the country, and at worst, a disaster for the world.

Nailed it.

Submitted by Hobie on November 16, 2016 - 9:09pm.

If I were to make a prediction, Trump will not make a big deal in blaming others but just go forward with his policies. And I'm grateful that you naysayers will benefit too.

Submitted by temeculaguy on November 18, 2016 - 12:09am.

BG, I didn't stick around to take the heat for a reason, because I do not believe in political discussions. This was a prediction thread and I was correct, I think I was one of the earliest. This does not mean this was my first choice, it was akin to gambling. Here's another prediction, Bama wint the college football championship. I'm not a fan, but I'm not emotional as an Aztec and my team wont make the playoffs, probably ever, due to it's non power five conference membership.

I'm a student of demographics and I know more than half of those reading this will need to google "power five conference" and wont be able to decipher the acronym "SEC" or know what the "East Coast Bias" means to college sports. That doesn't mean anyone is better than anyone else, just that I know the audience.

Politics is religion, debate is useless and for as long as I've been a part of this online community I have chosen to fade away during elections on purpose.

I am but an observer, but I find bias distorts perception. Here's my latest prediction and the one thing I am most worried about and that is the California tax on tobacco. Dumbest thing ever, we should repeal all taxes, subsidize tobacco and allow it indoors and in all public places and offices.
we should come within inches of mandating it.

This might sound crazy but all these nanny state laws are going to drive up costs for social security, medicare and other retirement expenses that workers subsidize. There's no argument that they work, but the costs of people living longer are going to be our greatest challenges in the future. I shouldn't say this as a man in striking distance of his 50th birthday but the system benefits from shorter lifespans. Youth is finite, the amount of years the young are a drain on the economy is fairly constant. Death keeps moving further out to the point that working life is nearing parity with retirement life. That is going to be a problem. Mark my words, you know I'll bump and quote this prediction in 20 years.

Submitted by ocrenter on November 18, 2016 - 6:58am.

temeculaguy wrote:

I am but an observer, but I find bias distorts perception. Here's my latest prediction and the one thing I am most worried about and that is the California tax on tobacco. Dumbest thing ever, we should repeal all taxes, subsidize tobacco and allow it indoors and in all public places and offices.
we should come within inches of mandating it.

This might sound crazy but all these nanny state laws are going to drive up costs for social security, medicare and other retirement expenses that workers subsidize. There's no argument that they work, but the costs of people living longer are going to be our greatest challenges in the future. I shouldn't say this as a man in striking distance of his 50th birthday but the system benefits from shorter lifespans. Youth is finite, the amount of years the young are a drain on the economy is fairly constant. Death keeps moving further out to the point that working life is nearing parity with retirement life. That is going to be a problem. Mark my words, you know I'll bump and quote this prediction in 20 years.

Not crazy at all. Phillip Morris actually lobbied against a proposed cigarette tax in the Czech Republic using the same argument.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 18, 2016 - 8:29am.

what benefits an individual may harm society. how else can we kill people.

repeal helmet laws.
legalize heroin.
give tax refunds by check or double that value in cartons of cigs
need more ideas...

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