OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

User Forum Topic
Submitted by svelte on December 11, 2015 - 7:41am

I apologize in advance for bringing up the topic (it is sure to be over-discussed next year!), but now is a good time to make predictions.

The primaries start in just a few weeks and bring clarity to who will be the final candidates.

So now is the opportune time to make predictions: who will be the final, post-convention candidate selections for US President of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and any other party you which to mention?

Bonus points for specifying who their running mate will be!

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 20, 2015 - 2:42pm.

I listened to Bernie Sanders yesterday and he sounds reasonable.
I think we should have family leave, Medicare for all, and better labor laws.
I feel sorry for hourly wage workers who don't get any paid time off. It sucks to be asked to be on standby, then called in for a few hours then sent home without pay.

I'm surprised that O'malley is not more popular. He's the most telegenic of all.

Submitted by barnaby33 on December 21, 2015 - 12:56pm.

I make predictions as well as the next schmoe. Here's mine, the Democratic candidate wins. None of the Republican candidates is addressing the core concerns of what are historically swing voters.

That being said, I hope it's Bernie, I'm voting for him. I don't like all of the things he's promoting, but his record is flat out unimpeachable. He is the only candidate talking about the real issues. Poverty, lack of access to education, health care. Hillary is smart, but far to wedded to the groups that enabled the predicament we are currently in. At this point for someone like me to vote for her I'd have to see her go on national television and say, "elect me and I'll close Citibank down," which is not going to happen.

Josh

Submitted by utcsox on December 22, 2015 - 10:52am.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arch...

It is far more interesting to predict if the "Wall Street" or "Main Street" candidate win the Republican nomination. But if you have to bet, the casino will always win. Marco Rubio will be the Republicans nominee and likely the 45th President of the United States.

Submitted by spdrun on December 22, 2015 - 7:01pm.

.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 22, 2015 - 4:47pm.

utcsox wrote:
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

It is far more interesting to predict if the "Wall Street" or "Main Street" candidate win the Republican nomination. But if you have to bet, the casino will always win. Marco Rubio will be the Republicans nominee and likely the 45th President of the United States.

Very interesting article that makes many excellent points.

I don't see how Marco Rubio would turn out disaffected Republican to the ballot boxes.

Submitted by harvey on December 22, 2015 - 6:03pm.

Agree, I just don't think many undecided people are going to get off their couches on election day to vote for Rubio.

Clinton probably doesn't excite many folks either, but the family name alone will muster more support than any issue Rubio can run on.

All Republicans can do is pray for a disaster: a significant terrorist attack or the economy tanking.

Many of them are already doing that.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 22, 2015 - 9:44pm.

It must be quite a life to pray for disaster. I wonder if God would grant such a wish this holiday season and into the new year.

I'm enjoying low gas prices now. Had to drive my gas guzzling truck more lately so the low prices are welcome.

Submitted by spdrun on December 23, 2015 - 6:47pm.

^^^

Still not good for the environment or progress. I'm not praying for disaster, but $300/bbl oil would be nice and good in the long run.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 24, 2015 - 2:31pm.

$300 oil would just cause is to consume oil over a longer period of time. Maybe hundreds of years.

Who cares is we polute today, or over longer time? In the scheme of the universe, nobody gives a shit.
Drill baby drill. I want to pollute while I'm alive and leave nothing behind.

Submitted by spdrun on December 24, 2015 - 2:40pm.

^^^

Lower rate of consumption = less CO2 output and more time to deal with the issue.

Besides, who says we can't address the issue and keep our lifestyle? Electric vehicles (both cars and rail) are getting better every year.

If you're serious about your short-sighted opinion and aren't just trolling, it's really a shame you weren't miscarried. Because that's what you're doing -- aborting future generations.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 24, 2015 - 8:03pm.

I've been won over by the argument that co2 is harmless and good for plants.

Drill baby drill. An oil powered economy will drive growth. We will leave future generations with lots of wealth and dollar savings. With strong paper dollars they can buy whatever they want.

Submitted by zk on December 26, 2015 - 8:32am.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-roo...

Huh. Probably the end of their perfect record of predicting the next president.

Submitted by spdrun on December 26, 2015 - 8:37am.

Here's hoping.

LET'S GO SAN-DERS!!!

Submitted by phaster on December 26, 2015 - 10:56am.

svelte wrote:
I apologize in advance for bringing up the topic (it is sure to be over-discussed next year!), but now is a good time to make predictions.

The primaries start in just a few weeks and bring clarity to who will be the final candidates.

So now is the opportune time to make predictions: who will be the final, post-convention candidate selections for US President of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and any other party you which to mention?

Bonus points for specifying who their running mate will be!

the only predictions I'll make is, the winner (as well as all those that want the job) have some kind of mental issue(s) because it seems like a thankless job where no matter what you do at least 1/2 of the population is going to hate you...

http://www.theonion.com/article/black-ma...

Submitted by temeculaguy on December 29, 2015 - 10:40pm.

Kinda early for predictions but i say trump wins primary and election based on the current situation. He is in the lead and has the experts baffled without spending much.

Here's the rub fellow piggs, most Americans hate politicians and know they are being lied to. Trump may say offensive or even stupid things but even the stupid things feel more genuine than the others. I liked Kasich for his healthcare, Christie for numerous reasons and Rubio for many other reasons. But honestly my favorites were Fiorina and the Doc because they weren't politicians. Trump is another animal altogether, he says what people think, but afraid to say it. Voting is private, polls aren't. My thoughts are Trump beats the polls and the polls are in his favor.

Evil as it may seem, after San Bernadino, I saw cair on TV and was sick to my stomach, then saw Obama (who I voted for twice) and was sick again. Cair should be on TV snitching off anyone who even looks radicalized.

This site is a collections of intellectuals and economics geeks, but do not for a minute think we are a majority. Plus Hillary will lose the female vote, I know no women who like her. She stayed with a man that cheated more than a professional cyclist just for public opinion, that will bite her. Funny thing is, I voted for him too, twice, but I have no respect for a woman who stayed with him, he deserved to be an alimony payer despite his attributes.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on December 30, 2015 - 7:20am.

temeculaguy wrote:
Kinda early for predictions but i say trump wins primary and election based on the current situation. He is in the lead and has the experts baffled without spending much.

Here's the rub fellow piggs, most Americans hate politicians and know they are being lied to. Trump may say offensive or even stupid things but even the stupid things feel more genuine than the others. I liked Kasich for his healthcare, Christie for numerous reasons and Rubio for many other reasons. But honestly my favorites were Fiorina and the Doc because they weren't politicians. Trump is another animal altogether, he says what people think, but afraid to say it. Voting is private, polls aren't. My thoughts are Trump beats the polls and the polls are in his favor.

Evil as it may seem, after San Bernadino, I saw cair on TV and was sick to my stomach, then saw Obama (who I voted for twice) and was sick again. Cair should be on TV snitching off anyone who even looks radicalized.

This site is a collections of intellectuals and economics geeks, but do not for a minute think we are a majority. Plus Hillary will lose the female vote, I know no women who like her. She stayed with a man that cheated more than a professional cyclist just for public opinion, that will bite her. Funny thing is, I voted for him too, twice, but I have no respect for a woman who stayed with him, he deserved to be an alimony payer despite his attributes.

Agree.

There is a feeling now that authenticity in many things is lost, lacking and desireable. Craft beer, selvedge denim and etsy.com are some manifestations of this. Trump simulates authenticity better than others. Therefore he will win the nomination.

I like trump for his appearing to be unfiltered. It feels like it is almost real. I would likely vote for him v. Hillary because I think he's slightly less likely to go to war.

Trump, sanders and vermin supreme are all in play for me. But...

Isn't marriage sacred? I don't blame hillary for staying. I don't like her for other reasons, but not because bill wanted a random blowjob and she stayed.

She's a player, not one who is played.

I am pretty sure that no one is real, that everything including the election is a simulated reality, but that it does not matter in terms of election results.

Submitted by spdrun on December 30, 2015 - 7:55am.

Trump may be authentic, but he's an authentic bigot who speaks his mind. No thanks. I feel like he also might be going senile. Not someone whose hand I want on the nuclear trigger.

Sanders, Kasich, or even O'Malley, please.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on December 30, 2015 - 8:09am.

spdrun wrote:
Trump may be authentic, but he's an authentic bigot who speaks his mind. No thanks. I feel like he also might be going senile. Not someone whose hand I want on the nuclear trigger.

Sanders, Kasich, or even O'Malley, please.

Can a money loving narcissist truly destroy the world and with it all his wealth. Vermin supreme would never destroy the world but I doubt trump would either. Or at least he'd check with his accountants first.

Submitted by spdrun on December 30, 2015 - 8:30am.

I'm not convinced of the state of his mental health at this point. His father had Alzheimer's at his age.

Submitted by svelte on December 30, 2015 - 8:36am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

Isn't marriage sacred? I don't blame hillary for staying. I don't like her for other reasons, but not because bill wanted a random blowjob and she stayed.

Personally I don't think it is any of our business what agreement Bill and Hill have. I don't hold that against them, though I do have a problem with the Oval Office event. But then Hillary wasn't involved in that as far as I know.

I do think the Republican view that she's a little shady is probably correct. Maybe vindictive is the right word. I can sorta see it in her face, the way she holds herself.

I really can't get excited about any of the candidates on either side. It feels like a bunch of really screwy choices we have this time around. I kind of like Bush, probably because of his demeanor which is much like Obama. Very thoughtful and deliberate, which resonates with me. I will certainly give him serious consideration and hope he doesn't get pulled too far right.

I like O'Malley too but he is too liberal for me. Seems like he is waiting in the wings in case Hillary screws up. Can't see Bernie winning but what do I know.

The biggest issue in this coming election, for me anyway, is who I want to make the Supreme Court choices for the next 4-8 years. For that reason alone, I may vote Democratic.

Or I may just leave the Prez box unchecked next election, as I've done a few times in the past. I truly have no idea what I'll do in a year.

Submitted by spdrun on December 30, 2015 - 8:48am.

Why is "liberal" a four-letter word in 2015? Putting cost of college in line with historical norms and a base level of national insurance coverage for all (portable between states) seem like laudable goals. So are police and criminal justice reform.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on December 30, 2015 - 4:13pm.

svelte wrote:
Or I may just leave the Prez box unchecked next election, as I've done a few times in the past. I truly have no idea what I'll do in a year.

If you live in California, what you mark on your ballet will be inconsequential. The votes they actually count to determine who gets to be president, (the electoral votes) from the state of California will go to whoever the democratic nominee will be. This is so widely accepted and uncontested that whoever is the republican nominee won't even bother to campaign in California. (Although they may make a stop or two to pick up checks from big donors)

Submitted by svelte on January 1, 2016 - 9:58am.

XBoxBoy wrote:
svelte wrote:
Or I may just leave the Prez box unchecked next election, as I've done a few times in the past. I truly have no idea what I'll do in a year.

If you live in California, what you mark on your ballet will be inconsequential. The votes they actually count to determine who gets to be president, (the electoral votes) from the state of California will go to whoever the democratic nominee will be. This is so widely accepted and uncontested that whoever is the republican nominee won't even bother to campaign in California. (Although they may make a stop or two to pick up checks from big donors)

True, true. Which is why I haven't worried about leaving it blank in past elections.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on January 2, 2016 - 12:52am.

svelte wrote:

I do think the Republican view that she's a little shady is probably correct. Maybe vindictive is the right word. I can sorta see it in her face, the way she holds herself.

How is Hillary shady or vindictive? I believe she's being treated differently because she's a woman. I can compartmentalize and see her as any other politician that she is.

svelte wrote:

I kind of like Bush, probably because of his demeanor which is much like Obama. Very thoughtful and deliberate, which resonates with me. I will certainly give him serious consideration and hope he doesn't get pulled too far right.

For being the "smart one" of the Bush kids, Jeb doesn't have very good command of speech of facts like George Bush senior, Bill Clinton and Obama do. Those guys are smart and intellectually curious and they have policies down. Reagan, and GWB, we are just surface kind of guys without much intellectual depth, but people wanted to "have a beer" with them.

To me, Jeb sounds more like his bro, GWB, than his dad. He does have the Republican establishment money backing him.

svelte wrote:

I like O'Malley too but he is too liberal for me. Seems like he is waiting in the wings in case Hillary screws up.

O'Malley a handsome, telegenic politician. I'm surprised he's not more popular. Demographics are changing and the new fragmented media landscape is not good for him.

svelte wrote:

The biggest issue in this coming election, for me anyway, is who I want to make the Supreme Court choices for the next 4-8 years. For that reason alone, I may vote Democratic.

Very interesting observation. The Supreme Court because of Republican appointment is more conservative than the population, although they caved on gay marriage because they knew that upholding marriage discrimination would be untenable to a younger public.

In the end, demographics is destiny. The Republicans' current strategies are unwinnable on a national level.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on January 2, 2016 - 1:54am.

Very interesting Trump and Republican Party article

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/31/ups...

Submitted by poorgradstudent on January 4, 2016 - 12:29pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:

Very interesting observation. The Supreme Court because of Republican appointment is more conservative than the population, although they caved on gay marriage because they knew that upholding marriage discrimination would be untenable to a younger public.

I'm not sure I totally agree with this. Justice Kennedy has some libertarian leanings that frustrate both Democrats and Republicans at times. He's the swing vote that keeps Roe v. Wade intact, and was also arguably the swing vote on DOMA. Yet he also voted to give GW Bush Florida over Gore, and is a big proponent that campaign spending is a form of Free Speech. In particular in the last 10 or so years, Kennedy's overall opinions have drifted slightly liberal.

I suppose you can float the argument that the conservative justices are VERY conservative (Alito, Scalia and Thomas in particular, with Roberts being more middle of the road conservative) while the liberals are somewhat less heavily liberal. In practical terms this just means the conservatives are slightly more likely to peel off an extra vote for a 6-3 decision rather than much of a difference in real policy. Most of the time, as goes Kennedy, so goes the court, and although his individual positions can differ from the population, overall I'm not sure he's too far off from the middle.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on January 4, 2016 - 3:01pm.

Poorgrad, that's a pretty good take on the Supreme Court.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on January 19, 2016 - 2:45pm.

Wow, Donald Trump go Sarah Palin's endorsement.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on January 19, 2016 - 2:48pm.

If Ted Cruz were to win there would likely be a Supreme Court ruling on his natural born status.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on January 19, 2016 - 2:48pm.

I'm excited that Iowa is finally going to vote soon.

After we get real results from IA and NH we'll find out what the "real" Republican field is like. The strength of Rubio in particular will be interesting to see, and of course where Trump actually falls. And if Bernie loses both IA and NH, even by slim margins, it's hard to see him coming back in states that are less white.

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