OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

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Submitted by svelte on December 11, 2015 - 7:41am

I apologize in advance for bringing up the topic (it is sure to be over-discussed next year!), but now is a good time to make predictions.

The primaries start in just a few weeks and bring clarity to who will be the final candidates.

So now is the opportune time to make predictions: who will be the final, post-convention candidate selections for US President of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and any other party you which to mention?

Bonus points for specifying who their running mate will be!

Submitted by svelte on December 11, 2015 - 7:44am.

I know looking back on this post in another year my prediction will seem foolish, but I still think Jeb is waiting in the wings, staying out of the fray.

I think it's going to be Clinton and Bush. Not that I want it to be that, but I predict that's where we'll end up.

Submitted by NotCranky on December 11, 2015 - 8:02am.

I agree. It will be two party approved candidates anyway.

Submitted by Coronita on December 11, 2015 - 8:06am.

hillary is going to win.....better than barry though... I'm not a fan of her, but all the other candidates from both parties are just nuts.

So what can you do?

Submitted by an on December 11, 2015 - 10:35am.

I think Hillary would win too, unless we get a major or several major terrorist attack. Then it's whoever the republican nominee is (hopefully not Trump).

Submitted by harvey on December 11, 2015 - 10:58am.

You gotta hand it to the Republicans, they've got quite a cast for this season.

Of course there's Trump, but we've also got the red-blooded American who is a Canadian citizen, the actual brain surgeon who comes across as completely unintelligent, and the other racial minority candidate that is generally disliked by his own minority group.

Submitted by zk on December 11, 2015 - 11:50am.

The republicans have a brokered convention. Bush or Rubio is the nominee. If I have to pick a winner, I'd say Rubio.

I wonder if part of the GOP's anti-Trump strategy is to encourage (behind the scenes, of course) most of the candidates to stay in the race. That will reduce the chances of Trump winning on the first ballot, after which the establishment can relatively easily install their favorite candidate. I don't know much about the political parties or their workings, so this scenario could be totally far-fetched. I'd be interested to hear other opinions on it.

On the other side, Hillary wins.

General election, Hillary wins.

About a month ago, I bet a guy at work on the republican nomination. I gave him Trump and Carson (this was when Carson was running almost even with Trump, and everybody else was trailing badly) and I took the field. I don't see either of those guys winning the nomination.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on December 11, 2015 - 1:39pm.

Rubio wins the Republican Nomination
Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination

Clinton wins the White House in a close popular election but dominates the Electoral College thanks to current Democratic structural advantages.

The Democrats gain 3 seats in the Senate leaving the Republicans a slim 51-49 majority. Democrats make small gains in the house (10-12 seats), but no massive coattail effect, and Republicans keep a majority, losing their most moderate members from purplish districts.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on December 11, 2015 - 1:47pm.

I don't think Trump or Bush have better than a 2% chance of actually winning, for the record. Bush has a ton of cash, but he's got no personality... he doesn't even seem to really WANT to be president.

So Scenario #1 was Rubio. Here's Scenario #2 (Chickens run the Henhouse)

Clinton still wins the Democratic Nomination because Bernie polls poorly with minority voters, a huge chunk of the Democratic Coalition.

Cruz wins Iowa, takes second in New Hampshire (or wins a very crowded field there), and manages to grind his way to the nomination as a sort of compromise between the Trump wing (~25% of the party) and everyone else.

Clinton of course destroys Cruz in the general election, because he's Cruz. Massive Coat Tails allow Democrats to take 4 seats in the Senate to take a 50-50 tie, and the House is too close to call on Election Night. Ultimately Paul Ryan holds onto the speakership by a slim majority, but can't pass anything past his own caucus, much less send it to the Senate to get rejected.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 11, 2015 - 2:12pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
Rubio wins the Republican Nomination
Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination

Clinton wins the White House in a close popular election but dominates the Electoral College thanks to current Democratic structural advantages.

The Democrats gain 3 seats in the Senate leaving the Republicans a slim 51-49 majority. Democrats make small gains in the house (10-12 seats), but no massive coattail effect, and Republicans keep a majority, losing their most moderate members from purplish districts.

wow! Another well analyzed post. Your posts are always on point. Very professorial and level headed.

I would add that the Republican establishment wins. Non college educated Whites become more alienated from the party.

I also agree with scenario #2.

Scenario #3. Trump gets the nomination. Republicans have no choice but to support him, and that brings up all kinds of issues.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 11, 2015 - 2:15pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
the Trump wing (~25% of the party)

That's the most interesting part. How would you define the Trump wing and how it affects future Republican politics?

Submitted by harvey on December 11, 2015 - 2:26pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:

Scenario #3. Trump gets the nomination. Republicans have no choice but to support him, and that brings up all kinds of issues.

That would be like watching Dr. Strangelove: hilarious and terrifying at the same time.

Submitted by Hatfield on December 11, 2015 - 6:35pm.

zk wrote:
The republicans have a brokered convention. Bush or Rubio is the nominee. If I have to pick a winner, I'd say Rubio.

I'm with you on the brokered convention, though I think it may tip towards Bush. Tough to call. Bush has spent a fortune this cycle and hasn't made much of a dent so far. So I'll say 55% Bush, 45% Rubio but who knows, really.

In any event, GOP machine engineers an anyone-but-Trump candidacy. Trump gets butthurt, runs as an independent, and splits the conservative vote, handing the election to the Democratic nominee. I'm hoping it'll be Bernie but it'll probably be Hillary. I'll hold my nose and vote for her.

Submitted by svelte on December 11, 2015 - 6:54pm.

Hatfield wrote:

In any event, GOP machine engineers an anyone-but-Trump candidacy. Trump gets butthurt, runs as an independent, and splits the conservative vote, handing the election to the Democratic nominee. I'm hoping it'll be Bernie but it'll probably be Hillary. I'll hold my nose and vote for her.

Anyone know what the latest date is for Trump to qualify as a candidate on the ballot of all 50 states?

If he's not watching that closely, then that tells me he was never serious about running independent - and that once that date passes the GOP powers will kick him out on his arse.

I'm still 75% sure he knows he's not a serious candidate and is purposely being a fruitcake for some other reason. Publicity for his businesses? Attempting to steer the GOP platform where he wants it? Attention in general? Did he make a deal with the GOP to stir up the GOP base and take the heat from the Dems while all the other candidates whistle and look at the sky? Not sure...probably the only one who knows for sure is Trump himself.

I'm not typically all that interested in primaries, but I will be watching pretty closely this time just to see if people really are going to vote for him...it will blow my mind if they do.

Submitted by Coronita on December 11, 2015 - 7:12pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
Rubio wins the Republican Nomination
Clinton wins the Democratic Nomination

Clinton wins the White House in a close popular election but dominates the Electoral College thanks to current Democratic structural advantages.

The Democrats gain 3 seats in the Senate leaving the Republicans a slim 51-49 majority. Democrats make small gains in the house (10-12 seats), but no massive coattail effect, and Republicans keep a majority, losing their most moderate members from purplish districts.

I could live with that....Democrat white house, repub senate and house.

Submitted by svelte on December 11, 2015 - 7:28pm.

flu wrote:

I could live with that....Democrat white house, repub senate and house.

That's the way I normally like it - white house with one party and congress with the other. They keep an eye on each other that way.

Didn't work out so well this go-round due to undue pressure from the Tea Party that headed off any compromises, but in general it works very well.

Submitted by utcsox on December 12, 2015 - 12:10pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
poorgradstudent wrote:
the Trump wing (~25% of the party)

That's the most interesting part. How would you define the Trump wing and how it affects future Republican politics?

~25%? Stop being so disrespectful. According to the latest poll, Trump's Republican Support Rises to 35%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/tracke...

And.. two-thirds of Republicans back Trump's Muslim proposal.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/12/11...

Submitted by Hatfield on December 12, 2015 - 12:20pm.

svelte wrote:
Anyone know what the latest date is for Trump to qualify as a candidate on the ballot of all 50 states?

Great question. I was curious about this myself and found the answer via the Google.

Every state has its own deadline, the first of which appears to be South Dakota at the end of April. Presumably an independent could squeak by without South Dakota's 3 electoral votes. The first big state is Texas which has a May 9th deadline. Most of the states are later than this.

Full table here:

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_access_fo...

Submitted by paramount on December 12, 2015 - 12:47pm.

When the dust settles Ted Cruz is the Republican Candidate.

I would hope for the sake of this country and world that we do not end up with a criminal in office.

Submitted by spdrun on December 13, 2015 - 4:40pm.

I hope for Sanders in office. Ta hell with everyone else :)

Submitted by paramount on December 13, 2015 - 5:36pm.

spdrun wrote:
I hope for Sanders in office. Ta hell with everyone else :)

Ted Cruz!

*Truly believes and adheres to the Constitution
*Limited Fed Govt!!
*Tireless fighter for liberty and Freedom

What's not to like? Wake up - gov't can't solve all of your problems - only you can!

Submitted by Hatfield on December 13, 2015 - 6:13pm.

paramount wrote:
What's not to like?

For starters, how about shutting down the government for no reason except to score a cheap political point, risking default on payments for things congress already agreed to, and lowering our credit rating? Literally, for no reason. Got nothing out of it. What a jackass.

Submitted by paramount on December 13, 2015 - 6:17pm.

Hatfield wrote:
paramount wrote:
What's not to like?

For starters, how about shutting down the government for no reason except to score a cheap political point, risking default on payments for things congress already agreed to, and lowering our credit rating? Literally, for no reason. Got nothing out of it. What a jackass.

You're right - big government dc establishment socialists are fed up with Ted Cruz and his antics.

Submitted by Hatfield on December 13, 2015 - 6:41pm.

But you're missing the point. The default was for things already agreed upon. The personal finance analogy would be to buy a bunch of stuff on the credit card and then refuse to pay the bill when it arrives, screwing your credit rating and ACCOMPLISHING NOTHING IN THE PROCESS.

If you want to deal with the spending problem, deal with the spending problem. Don't send us into default and then be whiny little prick about it, which seems to be his modus operandi. We can do without this sort of "leadership" in Washington.

Submitted by utcsox on December 14, 2015 - 10:58pm.

utcsox wrote:
FlyerInHi wrote:
poorgradstudent wrote:
the Trump wing (~25% of the party)

That's the most interesting part. How would you define the Trump wing and how it affects future Republican politics?

~25%? Stop being so disrespectful. According to the latest poll, Trump's Republican Support Rises to 35%.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/tracke...

And.. two-thirds of Republicans back Trump's Muslim proposal.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2015/12/11/two-thirds-republicans-back-trump-proposal/

41% now, a new High in a high quality national poll.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/po...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 15, 2015 - 4:24pm.

utcsox wrote:

41% now, a new High in a high quality national poll.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/po...

True colors don't fade. I suppose that why coastal real estate is expensive.
As someone might say, the cheap areas are cheap for a reason.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 15, 2015 - 4:22pm.

I wonder is Romney is regretting running against the incumbent Obama. Maybe he was the placeholder for Jeb! No just Jeb, but Jeb!

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 16, 2015 - 2:36am.

spdrun wrote:
I hope for Sanders in office. Ta hell with everyone else :)

Earlier I Was talking to a friend who is a Sanders supporter.

I'm not convinced a European model would be good for us. We already know what Europe is like and that is slower growth, where 2000 euros/month is a good salary. Even in England, that is more US like, all you have to do is look at the employment ads in the Economist to see they make less money than us, and endure higher cost of living.

Plus Europe has large marginalized immigrant populations because commerce is more rigid and it takes established connections to get public jobs and jobs with large private enterprises that provide good benefits. Here, immigrants can and do thrive running small business.

Also, because the USA has fastest growth of any large OECD country, we attract foreign investments which continues that growth. Where can pension funds invest in a safe modern, faster growing economy?

Maybe economic growth comes with more anxiety and less leisure because, in a competitive economy, people do have to worry about being up to snuff. That is the price of more money and prosperity. If some individuals want to take it slow, they can withdraw somewhat and take it slower.

Submitted by 42nate1 on December 19, 2015 - 8:36am.

Since we are speculating, i'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Republican nominee will be Trump and his running mate will be Cruz. In politics, this is going to be a very exciting year. Obviously Hillary will get the nomination on the left.

How it plays out with voter turn out, i've no clue, but it won't be boring. The debates with Trump/Hillary will be entertaining to watch & I predict the networks hosting will get ratings bumps as people tune in to watch the action.

No prediction on November 4th. Hillary is old, boring and disliked. Trump knows how to work the media, makes outrageous statements at times & has alienated a bunch of voting blocks.

The statistics November 5th will be interesting to read.

Submitted by Coronita on December 20, 2015 - 10:24am.

Its kinda funny looking of the democrat debates and the republican debates. The democrat debates look like an afternoon tea time debate among civilized people. The current GOP debates look like a frat party where everyone is drunk and saying whatever is on their minds.

Submitted by spdrun on December 20, 2015 - 1:41pm.

Bringing health care costs and education costs in line with historical norms is hardly adopting the worst aspects of European countries. We can still treat immigrants with respect and grow as a country even if we experience some changes.

If anything, having a basic level of insurance that's portable between states by default would encourage more people to leave established companies and found startups and small businesses.

Lowering education costs so that anyone who qualifies can "work" their way through college would also increase economic mobility.

No one. Literally NO ONE is suggesting that we adopt the system of nepotism that exists in some countries outside of the US.

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