OT: Old posts pre- housing crash

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Submitted by sdgrrl on March 28, 2017 - 4:52pm

Just curious. Does anyone else go through old threads from back in the lead up to the burst?

It's crazy to me to see the conversations flowing. I remember real estate agents saying Rich and us were clueless. Pretty sure they lost their shirts.

Anyway, pretty sad, but very enlightening.

Now that I am a homeowner I feel like a deranged Scrooge. "Higher! Inventory lower! Yes!!"

I did have morals at one time...

Anyway, I hope there are still some old timers around who remember "Back in my day..."

Submitted by XBoxBoy on March 30, 2017 - 7:51am.

Just wanted to chime in that I was one who also benefited from Piggington.

I don't know when I first found the site, it was pretty early in the housing bubble. There wasn't much discussion but there were some posts by Rich with links to articles about the housing market. I was suspicious about the housing bubble but not confident in my views.

In Nov. 2004 I sold the house I had been living in for a good price, then a bit later got married and by mid 2005 my wife and I were looking to buy. Searching on housing bubble san diego I found Piggington. I didn't become a regular or sign up to post at that time, just lurked a bit. Then I decided that the site was just too negative and was slowing down my purchase plans so I stopped visiting. But I couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger on a purchase. Five or six month later I returned, and the site was more active.

Once I returned I became more convinced of the housing bubble. Soon after I fired our realtor. My wife and I settled into a nice rental and I continued to lurk on piggington for another year before posting. Since then I've lurked more, posted a little and bought a house in fall of 2009. I still mostly just lurk, only posting once in a while, and wonder how the heck you frequent posters have the time to post these long political diatribes. To each his own though.

But I will forever be grateful to Rich and this site for giving me the info that I need to hold fast from 2005 until 2009 waiting for the bubble to peak, pop, and deflate. It wasn't always easy to go against all the people who said that housing only goes up. And of course that great line, "Land! They aren't making any more of it."

Thanks again to Rich, and all the Piggies,

XboxBoy

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 30, 2017 - 11:07am.

Thank you guys (including TG, who made a special visit back for this ;-) for the kind words. I'm really glad this little site helped some people out!

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 30, 2017 - 12:16pm.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Thank you guys (including TG, who made a special visit back for this ;-) for the kind words. I'm really glad this little site helped some people out!

I hope you really know how much now. What maybe started off as something fun for you, ended up saving a lot of people from making awful decisions.

Submitted by harvey on March 31, 2017 - 7:09am.

The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don't pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the "smart" people that stressed over the numbers.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 31, 2017 - 7:49am.

Even if you did buy at peak and held on you probably don't feel too bad about the whole thing as in most places your back above water and in another ten years it will likely just be noise, water under the bridge so to speak.

The real tragedy IMO is those who but down large downs and were not able to hold on or who lost employment because of the ordeal.

Even those who sold at peak likely gave a lot back in rent and time (loss) and transaction costs.

In the end IMO it was just a waste for most.

Not that this site did not do a good job of education and recording the whole ordeal, just that sometimes for most like the stock market, it is best just to buy an index fund and go on with life not trying to chase the market.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 31, 2017 - 1:08pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Even if you did buy at peak and held on you probably don't feel too bad about the whole thing as in most places your back above water and in another ten years it will likely just be noise, water under the bridge so to speak.

The real tragedy IMO is those who but down large downs and were not able to hold on or who lost employment because of the ordeal.

Even those who sold at peak likely gave a lot back in rent and time (loss) and transaction costs.

In the end IMO it was just a waste for most.

Not that this site did not do a good job of education and recording the whole ordeal, just that sometimes for most like the stock market, it is best just to buy an index fund and go on with life not trying to chase the market.

Depends where.
Lots of places are still well below nominal prices, in real terms they were big losers.

Submitted by sdsurfer on March 31, 2017 - 2:13pm.

I definitely go through old posts from time to time on relevant topic.

I've learned a ton from this site! I was just going to mention that I miss TG's posts and there he is with a visit! Start working on that show man...why not?

Just thought I'd chime in to say thank you to Rich for putting this site together and for everyone that contributes. Such a great way to learn from other smart people.

Submitted by flyer on March 31, 2017 - 6:17pm.

Things worked out differently for everyone. For many, the waiting game paid off--in a big way--for others, not so much, and, agree, a lot depended on where you were looking, and the type of property you were looking for (primary, investment, etc.)

It was another great chance to pick up investment properties in lots of areas, but many people we knew who were looking for a primary on or near the coast really didn't care that they could get a better deal in other areas that took a bigger hit during the crash--because they weren't going to buy there anyway--so waiting for what they wanted did pay off for quite a few of them.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on April 1, 2017 - 2:03pm.

Winning is relative to others. If your peers bought at the peak and held on, then you may not feel so bad for doing the same. But if your peers lost their asses, you may feel smart for waiting. Depends how you value the art of the deal.

Keep in mind that our behavior is a often a product of our environment. We can't control everything.

Submitted by Reality on April 1, 2017 - 4:10pm.

harvey wrote:
The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don't pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the "smart" people that stressed over the numbers.

Where would the "E" in HELOC have come from if they bought at the peak?

Submitted by barnaby33 on April 2, 2017 - 10:23am.

To me this was the high water mark of bubble posting: https://piggington.com/life_is_good_in_a...

4PlexOwner, where are you now?

Rich accelerated me down my path, ironically by asking me for money. Somehow I think paying for his early news letter made me more serious about absorbing it's content.

Josh

Submitted by EconProf on April 2, 2017 - 7:50pm.

Lots of posters here are touting their astute purchases and sales, all made with perfect timing.
Except me.
I'll admit to having terrible timing, and as an economist, that is embarrassing. However, I believe in letting it all hang out, so here it is.
In 2006 I bought into the gated community of Santaluz. The house proceeded to fall 40%, putting it clearly underwater. The only consolation was a terrific loan from the hated (and deservedly so) Chase Bank. It was tied to the 5-year Treasury Bond rate, so my interest rate remains about 2.7%.

Lots of economists jokes come to mind. Economists who forecast with a crystal ball must learn to eat crushed glass. Economist forecasts--seldom right, always confident.

I was in good company: Fed chairman Greenspan, Bernanke, many others.

Fortunately the house is now a bit above the purchase price, and my commercial and apartment properties have done well.

It has been good to read all these posts from old-timers. It seems the discussions then were more substantial when the bubble was building and then bursting.
I suspect we are in another bubble.
Trust me, I'm an economist.

Submitted by harvey on April 3, 2017 - 6:09am.

Reality wrote:
harvey wrote:
The ultimate irony of the housing bust was that many who purchased at the peak did as well or better than those who waited it out. Just don't pay your mortgage for a few years while collecting rent, enjoy the RV you bought with the HELOC that was forgiven, get a principle reduction a few years later, and come out ahead of all the "smart" people that stressed over the numbers.

Where would the "E" in HELOC have come from if they bought at the peak?

Thanks Mr. Nitpick. I also spelled "principal" incorrectly.

The point is that buying during the bubble often was not the personal financial disaster that many predicted, and in many cases those who were making the "poor" decision benefited in the long run. There are many who purchased with no down payment at or near peak who still own their properties today with low-rate loans and equity.

Nobody predicted that outcome.

Submitted by ocrenter on April 3, 2017 - 6:31am.

EconProf wrote:

I suspect we are in another bubble.
Trust me, I'm an economist.

It certainly has the feel of it, folks in the home improvement and remodel business tell me it feels like 2005 all over again. plus we are due for one timing wise aren't we?

Submitted by zk on April 3, 2017 - 8:05pm.

EconProf wrote:

Lots of economists jokes come to mind. Economists who forecast with a crystal ball must learn to eat crushed glass. Economist forecasts--seldom right, always confident.

And my favorite, the classic "Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions."

Submitted by spdrun on April 3, 2017 - 8:13pm.

DOW futures -30.00 as we speak. Looks like the Trump honeymoon/lovefest is over.

Submitted by ocrenter on April 4, 2017 - 5:43am.

zk wrote:
EconProf wrote:

Lots of economists jokes come to mind. Economists who forecast with a crystal ball must learn to eat crushed glass. Economist forecasts--seldom right, always confident.

And my favorite, the classic "Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions."

Hey, what goes up, must come down. Timing might be off sometimes, but hey, that just means the prediction is ahead of its time. Lol.

Submitted by phaster on April 5, 2017 - 5:35pm.

ocrenter wrote:
zk wrote:
EconProf wrote:

Lots of economists jokes come to mind. Economists who forecast with a crystal ball must learn to eat crushed glass. Economist forecasts--seldom right, always confident.

And my favorite, the classic "Economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions."

Hey, what goes up, must come down. Timing might be off sometimes, but hey, that just means the prediction is ahead of its time. Lol.

nah, this time is different
what could possibly go wrong?

Quote:

Special Report First Quarter 2017 Emerging Trends

Investors Dial Back Transactions Amid Murky Policy Outlook; Clarity, Healthy Fundamentals Likely to Revive Activity

Investors scale back activity as market recalibrates to higher interest rates and awaits clarity on government policy. The November election sparked a rapid rise in interest rates and introduced a wide range of prospective reform initiatives. Proposed changes to fiscal, tax and regulatory policies raise a host of questions that will influence investor decisions. Over the first two months of 2017, early estimates place commercial real estate transactions down by 20 to 25 percent compared with the same period last year. This comes on the heels of an estimated 15 percent decline in the fourth quarter.

https://www.snl.com/Cache/1500097791.PDF...

Quote:

San Diego still plagued by pension debt

A new analysis shows San Diego’s finances are still plagued by pension debt despite efforts to solve the problem with a 2012 ballot measure and revised policies at City Hall.

The analysis says San Diego’s annual pension payment is five times higher than it should be, $325 million versus $63 million, because of $2.5 billion in pension debt caused by “underfunding” in the early 2000s, poor investment returns and increases in how long employees are living.

The analysis, created by city finance officials, says a payment that large makes it difficult for the city to balance its budget except in years with flush revenues.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news...

curious anyone else develop/implement an "investment strategy" just in case...

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