OT: Old posts pre- housing crash

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdgrrl on March 28, 2017 - 4:52pm

Just curious. Does anyone else go through old threads from back in the lead up to the burst?

It's crazy to me to see the conversations flowing. I remember real estate agents saying Rich and us were clueless. Pretty sure they lost their shirts.

Anyway, pretty sad, but very enlightening.

Now that I am a homeowner I feel like a deranged Scrooge. "Higher! Inventory lower! Yes!!"

I did have morals at one time...

Anyway, I hope there are still some old timers around who remember "Back in my day..."

Submitted by moneymaker on March 28, 2017 - 7:54pm.

I too am a home owner, however I don't plan on selling anytime soon, so the run up has no effect on my personal outlook.

Submitted by zk on March 28, 2017 - 9:37pm.

sdgrrl wrote:
I remember real estate agents saying Rich and us were clueless. Pretty sure they lost their shirts.

I remember George Chamberlin (money "expert" on local media) insisting over and over again that there wasn't a bubble and that prices couldn't and wouldn't fall. I remember the contortions of logic he used to support his theories. Then, after the bubble popped, he blamed it on the media. Seriously, he blamed the drop in home prices on media coverage.

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 28, 2017 - 10:09pm.

"No! No! No! Bear Stearns is fine!" Jim Cramer.

One week before it went under.

Submitted by gzz on March 29, 2017 - 12:00am.

I waited until 2011 to buy my first house because of pricing issues and read this site then as I waited for the bubble to burst.

Submitted by harvey on March 29, 2017 - 6:30am.

zk wrote:
Then, after the bubble popped, he blamed it on the media. Seriously, he blamed the drop in home prices on media coverage.

That sounds familiar.

Blaming "the media" should result in an instant loss of all credibility. Unfortunately it's still a very effective cop out.

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 6:47am.

This isn't going to be hijacked by politics. Start your own thread.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 29, 2017 - 6:49am.

IMO there are two main reasons we had the big housing crash.

1) Widespread corruption in mortgage underwriting.
2) Over Building mainly fueled by number 1.

Submitted by harvey on March 29, 2017 - 8:05am.

sdgrrl wrote:
This isn't going to be hijacked by politics. Start your own thread.

LOL, you think you can separate financial bubbles and politics?

The same tactics are being used to fuel the next one.

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 8:38am.

Your statement added nothing meaningful to the thread. It was a jab at the current president and had nothing to do with what occurred leading up to the pop.

Submitted by biggoldbear on March 29, 2017 - 8:56am.

Came to this site in 2007. While I also predicted a crash during the run-up, I made an arbitrary valuation judgement that when SFH in Mira Mesa got below $400k, it was time to buy. We had an agent, went on a couple showings. Thankfully, I tried to find some data to backup my assumptions, this site gave me everything I needed, and put on the brakes. We waited until Fall 2008, though prices were still dropping, they were within historical norms and it was a good time for us. 5 years later, we were able to sell with a good profit -> down payment to our forever home.

Thank you Rich and all the Piggs!

Submitted by SD Transplant on March 29, 2017 - 9:13am.

Indeed some of the old threads are awesome. If you don't remember some fun conversations (i.e. poway seller), you aren't an old pigg :)

Anyway, I did purchase my 1st house because of this blog at the right time. There were many lessons learned, and I couldn't be a happier pigg.

Thank you Rich & old piggs

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 29, 2017 - 9:43am.

sdgrrl wrote:
I remember real estate agents saying Rich and us were clueless.

I remember this part very well... it wasn't just real estate agents though! :-)

I have some pretty comical hate mail from back in those days...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 29, 2017 - 10:04am.

I have new real estate agent friend who owned a dozen properties and lost his shirt. He's pretty humble now. I can respect that.

Some people however never learn and remain forever bitter while blaming others.... It's always someone else's fault.

I don't like the current run up in prices. It's good for owners but not healthy for providing housing and entrepreneurs who want to purchase housing and operate a real estate business. Bad for turnover and the economy.

Submitted by harvey on March 29, 2017 - 9:56am.

sdgrrl wrote:
Your statement added nothing meaningful to the thread. It was a jab at the current president and had nothing to do with what occurred leading up to the pop.

I never mentioned the current president. That only happened in your mind.

My statement was based on the observation that human nature does not change.

These economic events are much bigger than one person.

Enjoy your time reading internet posts from ten years ago.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 29, 2017 - 9:59am.

There was a Vegas developer who blamed the press. He took out full page ads to blame the press. Needless to say, but I'll say it anyway, he went bankrupt.

http://www.prweb.com/releases/gemstone_d...

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 10:24am.

I was actually reading Poway's post last night- not just for him. He was in the posts.

One of the oldies messaged me instead of replying. It seems many of us are still here,but we just fly under the radar lol.

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 10:25am.

Hmm...so blaming something on the media by someone in power hasn't been in the media or controversial recently...

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 11:24am.

You know Rich, that would be some good reading.

Maybe you can do a 'Rich's all-time list' once a month and post some of the really good ones. Fingers crossed- like looking at the accident when you drive by; morbid appeal lol.

Yeah, it was crazy on here at the time and I was definitely a part of it. The economy was collapsing. Two wars were going on. Bush was getting bashed. Then it was Obama. Lessons learned for myself. I stay away from politics, or I should say partisan politics.

Lots of fun/tragic post to look back on.

One made me sad, just one I caught. Some guy asking if he should buy and it was 2008. You could tell he was scared and was clueless.

Some people said to buy and some said not to, but surprisingly more said buy.

Wonder what happened to him...

Submitted by evolusd on March 29, 2017 - 2:08pm.

gzz wrote:
I waited until 2011 to buy my first house because of pricing issues and read this site then as I waited for the bubble to burst.

Same boat here. Despite the frenzy, I found this site in 2007 and it validated my belief that the market was insane due to artificial demand created by ridiculous lending practices. So glad.

Bought first home in late 2011 and have been amazed by the appreciation. Sometimes consider selling, but then what? I don't see much probability for material depreciation in the near term. Happy to have piggington around to help me navigate.

Submitted by harvey on March 29, 2017 - 3:11pm.

The film The Big Short is an entertaining way to relive the bubble days.

There are a few scenes that would be unbelievable, except that they actually happened.

And then there's this: https://piggington.com/public_service_an...

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 3:17pm.

Great movie.

Submitted by flyer on March 29, 2017 - 4:55pm.

Having been in real estate investment most of my life, I had never seen anything like what we experienced during the years you mentioned sdgrrl--and that's why I first joined this forum--to learn what other people were thinking--especially Rich who had the insight to sound the alarm when no one else would. Lots of very interesting posts during those years.

It's true, some people lost their shirts during that period, and it was sad to witness the ridiculous (lending among other) policies, processes and mindsets that made that possible, as well as the apocalyptic aftermath, but some of us stepped back, took a breath, held on, and got through it--especially since many of us had purchased our properties many years prior to the meltdown.

Then, and in some ways, sadly, the crash did bring another round of great buying opportunities, so now, here we are, with real estate at new highs (for the moment) and hoping everyone is well positioned for the many economic challenges I believe still lie ahead.

Submitted by svelte on March 29, 2017 - 5:31pm.

What housing crash?

I deny it ever happened!

Submitted by flyer on March 29, 2017 - 5:38pm.

And, per the current topic--from another recent housing blog:

"Living in a renter’s paradise: Renters now dominate over half of largest US cities. Between 2007 and 2016 approximately 7.8 million homes lost to foreclosure."

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 6:48pm.

flyer wrote:
Having been in real estate investment most of my life, I had never seen anything like what we experienced during the years you mentioned sdgrrl--and that's why I first joined this forum--to learn what other people were thinking--especially Rich who had the insight to sound the alarm when no one else would. Lots of very interesting posts during those years.

It's true, some people lost their shirts during that period, and it was sad to witness the ridiculous (lending among other) policies, processes and mindsets that made that possible, as well as the apocalyptic aftermath, but some of us stepped back, took a breath, held on, and got through it--especially since many of us had purchased our properties many years prior to the meltdown.

Then, and in some ways, sadly, the crash did bring another round of great buying opportunities, so now, here we are, with real estate at new highs (for the moment) and hoping everyone is well positioned for the many economic challenges I believe still lie ahead.

I remember you well and hope all is well.

Yeah, it was just insane at that time. For me, I could feel it in my bones, feel it in the air.

I remember being jealous, because so many people I knew were buying and I couldn't see how I could afford it; the 20% down. Then it hit me that no one could really afford it. I started googling for articles and stumbled upon Rich's site. I felt so vindicated what was in my gut.

I wish i could have bought in 2010'2012, but wasn't in the position to do so. I'm a homeowner now and am not too worried. We bought what we could afford and plan to stay there until Florida calls.

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 7:04pm.

Delete. Duplicate

Submitted by sdgrrl on March 29, 2017 - 6:50pm.

svelte wrote:
What housing crash?

I deny it ever happened!

Who invited svelte to the party? Where's your walker old timer?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 29, 2017 - 8:25pm.

Some people were so convinced that there would be economic collapse and dollar debasement after Fed intervention and stimulus that they missed the opportunity in places that recovered fast like La Jolla, Carmel valley, the Bay Area, west LA.

The press did run sensational stories about ground zero areas like the inland empire Vegas, florida that scared a lot of people.

A friend sold a business at the right time and he bought a dozen properties in Moreno Valley, of all places. Percentage wise, that area had one of the best recoveries in the nation.

Submitted by temeculaguy on March 30, 2017 - 1:04am.

This caused me to see when I became a member, just had my 10 year anniversary. I lurked before that. Then I looked at some of oldest posts from 07, while i can only barely remember it, I followed Deadzone back then.

https://piggington.com/getting_married_i...

Here's a gem where we tried to talk someone out of buying countrywide stock

https://piggington.com/countrywide_is_in...

the rest of my short lived historical research just made me feel creepy reading about my obsession with Diana Olick. In my defense, she was one of the only ones in the MSM to tell it like it was back then. Sure there was Rich, this site and Shiller, Roubini and a few others. But Olick had the furthest reach and took the greatest risk by reporting the contrarian view while employed by a major network.

At some point someone will film a documentary for the history channel on the untold story of the housing crash. When they do they will likely find this site during their research. So if you found this thread and you are researching, here is my advice: Be sure to interview Rich, he was always our humble leader and be sure to interview Diana, if she got pressured but network executives to soften her reporting due to advertisers it would serve to show the fundamental flaw and the conspiracy element.

Then interview some of the piggs who read the tea leaves and won. I'll volunteer to be interviewed at my house and show what I paid and how it allows for my hedonist lifestyle , I'm sure other will also. Maybe I should become a film maker, this sounds like something netflix would buy.

Submitted by Ribbles on March 30, 2017 - 6:45am.

temeculaguy wrote:
Maybe I should become a film maker, this sounds like something netflix would buy.

That is a great idea for a series. Netflix allows for shows that viewers want, as opposed to shows that advertisers want, which is why they are generally better than broadcast shows, and this is something they could and possibly would try. Real time, 6 seasons, 2003-2008. A bull agent, a John Doe office worker and family in over their heads, a frustrated bear, sleazy mortgage lenders, suburban heaven, etc. Maybe done in the style of the Big Short or Weeds. I would watch the hell out of that.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.