OT - who do you think will win (not you want to win)? Obama/Biden or Romney/Ryan

Submitted by briansd1 on August 16, 2012 - 12:40pm
Obama/Biden
44% (21 votes)
Romney/Ryan
56% (27 votes)
Total votes: 48
Submitted by briansd1 on August 16, 2012 - 12:41pm.

Let's see how prescient our piggies are.

We shall find out in November.

Submitted by livinincali on August 16, 2012 - 12:50pm.

Where's the neither option, of course if I'm just gambling I'd take Obama.

Submitted by briansd1 on August 16, 2012 - 12:52pm.

Neither is not available.

This is not a vote for a ticket you want. This is a prediction as to who will win this November.

Submitted by no_such_reality on August 16, 2012 - 1:19pm.

Then where is Romney/Biden?

The fight is going to gridlock in the electoral college, Congress will name Romney to President, the Senate will name Biden to VP.

That said, I think the popular vote will bend close between 50/50 - 52/48 one way or another with the the Electoral college could blow out one way or another.

The campaign is negative and getting worse.

The voting populace is completely disgusted.

The economy is still a train wreck.

And both sides have large constituencies that feel completely justified in flat out lying to get their way.

In the end, I suspect we're going to have more stamping of feet, more wailing, more gnashing of teeth more crying of foul at vote tampering than the hanging chads incident.

Submitted by briansd1 on August 16, 2012 - 1:33pm.

Here's the electoral map for you guys to play with.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalcul...

I predict Florida and Nevada to Obama because of "end Medicare as we know it."

NSR, what scenario do you project a win for Romney/Ryan?

Time will tell...

Submitted by Coronita on August 16, 2012 - 2:33pm.

#@!$#@!$#@!$#@!$#@!$#@!$321

Submitted by sdduuuude on August 16, 2012 - 2:36pm.

I'm writing in Markmax.

Submitted by UCGal on August 16, 2012 - 2:58pm.

sdduuuude wrote:
I'm writing in Markmax.

+1

Where's the Gary Johnson ticket?
Neighbors have a GJ sign in their front yard. It's smaller than the old RP one they had before.

Submitted by svelte on August 16, 2012 - 3:33pm.

The WH move to give 2 yr immunity to some immigrants was brilliant.

The knee-jerk reaction from the right reared it's ugly head today with Brewer spewing venom about how there ain't no way in hell they'll get a driver's license in HER state virtually guarantees the Hispanic vote clicks the Obama box.

Nice work, Jan.

Submitted by harvey on August 16, 2012 - 3:39pm.

UCGal wrote:
Neighbors have a GJ sign in their front yard. It's smaller than the old RP one they had before.

That one sentence captures so much about the current state of the Libertarian party!

Submitted by briansd1 on August 16, 2012 - 4:10pm.

svelte wrote:
The WH move to give 2 yr immunity to some immigrants was brilliant.

The knee-jerk reaction from the right reared it's ugly head today with Brewer spewing venom about how there ain't no way in hell they'll get a driver's license in HER state virtually guarantees the Hispanic vote clicks the Obama box.

Nice work, Jan.

I'm not au courant today, so I had to search for that news.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/...
Does that mean we should color AZ blue, or red?

Submitted by svelte on August 16, 2012 - 5:57pm.

Don't think there are enough Hispanic voters in AZ to turn it blue (though I could be wrong), but there are probably other states where they make more of a difference...

Submitted by briansd1 on August 16, 2012 - 6:42pm.

AZ going blue would be a huge demographic shift. With Nevada and Florida turning blue, that could mark a generation shift.

FL is interesting because I believe that fewer Cuban-Americans are votIng Republican strictly out of anti-communism.

Looking at the map, I see many scenarios where Obama could win. There are fewer possibilities for a Romney win.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 16, 2012 - 6:46pm.

briansd1 wrote:
svelte wrote:
The WH move to give 2 yr immunity to some immigrants was brilliant.

The knee-jerk reaction from the right reared it's ugly head today with Brewer spewing venom about how there ain't no way in hell they'll get a driver's license in HER state virtually guarantees the Hispanic vote clicks the Obama box.

Nice work, Jan.

I'm not au courant today, so I had to search for that news.
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/...
Does that mean we should color AZ blue, or red?

There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely to turn blue. There's been pretty limited public polling and Obama has not spent any money yet targeting AZ, so internal polling isn't giving his campaign any reason to fight for it. But that could change at any time, I'm watching for it.

Submitted by no_such_reality on August 16, 2012 - 8:04pm.

I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

Submitted by svelte on August 16, 2012 - 8:39pm.

no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I don't think anybody said that in this thread.

But I do think that many Republicans *are* racist.

Submitted by mike92104 on August 16, 2012 - 9:36pm.

svelte wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I don't think anybody said that in this thread.

Besides this one:

SK in CV wrote:
There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

svelte wrote:
But I do think that many Republicans *are* racist.

As are many Democrats.

Submitted by mike92104 on August 16, 2012 - 9:39pm.

no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

Remember that anyone not with Obama is racist.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 16, 2012 - 10:33pm.

im voting for gary johnson i guess. i hate romney and obama, but im kinda missing ron paul. please, anyone to shake it up some...

Submitted by SK in CV on August 16, 2012 - 10:58pm.

mike92104 wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

Remember that anyone not with Obama is racist.

Nobody ever said that. At least in this thread. You really don't want to look foolish and make that argument.

Submitted by afx114 on August 17, 2012 - 10:48am.

Submitted by Coronita on August 17, 2012 - 11:15am.

Lol....

Submitted by Coronita on August 17, 2012 - 11:16am.

Submitted by Aecetia on August 21, 2012 - 10:22am.

Great bumper stickers, flu.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on August 21, 2012 - 10:31am.

no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I actually assume it's because they don't care about poor people.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on August 21, 2012 - 10:35am.

Brian, it wasn't clear from your title if people were supposed to click who they want to win, or think will win. I imagine a lot of folks clicking Romney/Ryan want him to win but may not expect him to.

Submitted by Veritas on August 21, 2012 - 11:21am.

Hit the Road

"Let me begin my restating my argument. President Obama should be judged on his record in office."

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/20...

Submitted by briansd1 on August 21, 2012 - 1:22pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
Brian, it wasn't clear from your title if people were supposed to click who they want to win, or think will win. I imagine a lot of folks clicking Romney/Ryan want him to win but may not expect him to.

Ok I changed the title based on your feedback.

We will see how prescient our piggies are.

To be successful at real estate you need to have good prescience. Do our piggies have that in them? Time will tell...

Submitted by briansd1 on August 21, 2012 - 1:28pm.

poorgradstudent wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I actually assume it's because they don't care about poor people.

I also assume Republicans don't care about poor people. Plus I assume that Republicans who are poor are below average intelligence.

Submitted by livinincali on August 21, 2012 - 1:37pm.

briansd1 wrote:
poorgradstudent wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I actually assume it's because they don't care about poor people.

I also assume Republicans don't care about poor people. Plus I assume that Republicans who are poor are below average intelligence.

I assume all people that are poor are probably below average intelligence, isn't that the reason they're poor in the first place.

Submitted by Coronita on August 21, 2012 - 1:51pm.

Well there's the real poor people out of bad luck or bad environment etc.....which has my empathy and compassion..

Then there's the people that aren't really poor out of bad luck/environment... but sure waste a hell of lot of time which probably ends up making themselves poor...since time is money....Such as posting political nonsense on a real estate blog (unpaid, mind you) which produces 0 investment knowledge/info...and yet somehow think others should pay more taxes to spread the wealth...

Go figure :)

Submitted by briansd1 on August 21, 2012 - 4:06pm.

There plenty of intelligent people people. That's why we should make higher education affordable to everyone.

Submitted by Veritas on August 21, 2012 - 5:02pm.

Brian,

You should run for office. A lot of parents who have to take out loans for their kids and even some of the kids would probably vote for you if you could figure out how to make higher education affordable. I have an idea: cut the salary of the professors.

Submitted by svelte on August 21, 2012 - 6:31pm.

mike92104 wrote:
svelte wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I don't think anybody said that in this thread.

Besides this one:

SK in CV wrote:
There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

Mike. You just equated these two sentences:

1. There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

2. People vote Republican because they are racist.
(extracted from the sentence "I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.")

Those are not equivalent sentences. That's obvious to almost anyone, I would think.

Submitted by mike92104 on August 21, 2012 - 8:32pm.

SK in CV wrote:
mike92104 wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

Remember that anyone not with Obama is racist.

Nobody ever said that. At least in this thread. You really don't want to look foolish and make that argument.

True, not in this thread. I have, however, been accused of being racist on this site simply because I disagreed with the Dems policies. I'm not sure anyone else took it as a actual argument.

Submitted by mike92104 on August 21, 2012 - 8:41pm.

svelte wrote:
mike92104 wrote:
svelte wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I don't think anybody said that in this thread.

Besides this one:

SK in CV wrote:
There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

Mike. You just equated these two sentences:

1. There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

2. People vote Republican because they are racist.
(extracted from the sentence "I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.")

Those are not equivalent sentences. That's obvious to almost anyone, I would think.

For some reason, I don't think SK was making a general statement about "old people" being racist in AZ.

Submitted by no_such_reality on August 21, 2012 - 9:30pm.

Oh please, the context was clear.

Too many 'old people' 'terrified' of 'brown people'
hence it's a 'red' state and going to remain a 'red' state.

SK in CV wrote:

There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ. It's not impossible, but it's unlikely to turn blue. There's been pretty limited public polling and Obama has not spent any money yet targeting AZ, so internal polling isn't giving his campaign any reason to fight for it. But that could change at any time, I'm watching for it.

Submitted by zk on August 21, 2012 - 9:34pm.

mike92104 wrote:
I have, however, been accused of being racist on this site simply because I disagreed with the Dems policies.

I'm skeptical. Show us where this happened.

Submitted by svelte on August 22, 2012 - 6:53am.

mike92104 wrote:
svelte wrote:
mike92104 wrote:
svelte wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I don't think anybody said that in this thread.

Besides this one:

SK in CV wrote:
There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

Mike. You just equated these two sentences:

1. There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

2. People vote Republican because they are racist.
(extracted from the sentence "I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.")

Those are not equivalent sentences. That's obvious to almost anyone, I would think.

For some reason, I don't think SK was making a general statement about "old people" being racist in AZ.

So you made assumptions about what was said and put words in the speaker's mouth.

Additionally, no one even *implied* that people vote Republican because they are racist. That is totally an invention of no_such_reality's imagination!

They can vote Republican for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with racism - and often do. That doesn't change the fact that many are racist. And yes, there are racist Dems too. And racist blacks. And racist Hispanics. And racist Asians.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 22, 2012 - 8:34am.

svelte wrote:
mike92104 wrote:
svelte wrote:
mike92104 wrote:
svelte wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I don't think anybody said that in this thread.

Besides this one:

SK in CV wrote:
There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

Mike. You just equated these two sentences:

1. There's way too many old people that are terrified of brown people in AZ.

2. People vote Republican because they are racist.
(extracted from the sentence "I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.")

Those are not equivalent sentences. That's obvious to almost anyone, I would think.

For some reason, I don't think SK was making a general statement about "old people" being racist in AZ.

So you made assumptions about what was said and put words in the speaker's mouth.

Additionally, no one even *implied* that people vote Republican because they are racist. That is totally an invention of no_such_reality's imagination!

They can vote Republican for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with racism - and often do. That doesn't change the fact that many are racist. And yes, there are racist Dems too. And racist blacks. And racist Hispanics. And racist Asians.

I'm a little confused about who said what in this series of comments, but svelte's last comment pretty accurately sums up what I did say, and what I did not say.

There's a pretty interesting dynamic in Az. I've lived here for a bit over a year, and after being here for a few months, I was a bit confused with the anti-immigrant sentiment of the voters here. I hadn't seen it. So I started asking questions. Who are all these people that are so virultently anti-immigrant? It certainly wasn't the people I was coming into contact with in the east valley of Pheonix. Invariably the response was that it is the elderly, many of them retirees from elsewhere, including the large population in the Sun City area. It's not like one person told me that. Republicans and Democrats, conservatives and liberals alike.

I have absolutely no belief that all Republicans are racist (or conversely that all Dems are not). Nor, for that matter, that anti-immigrant racism necessarily extends to more general racism. The African American population here is pretty small, but I worked with two African American women in my last gig here, and both of them said that they've never felt any racism here, in contrast to where they previously lived. (One grew up on Oakland, the other in S. Central in LA.) Anectodal of course, but interesting.

Submitted by no_such_reality on August 22, 2012 - 9:22am.

So you just pulled 'terrified of brown people' out of your backside because? Is it a subconscious bias that you're assuming they're racist?

I'm in Phoenix a lot, and I have old people there. I get what you think you're saying, but you didn't say the retiree population is strongly anti-immigrant, you said 'terrified of brown people'. So which is it? Terrified of brown people or anti-illegal immigrant? Cause frankly, if you can't see the difference in those two statements and the underlying implied context, you're being dishonest because I know you're not that dumb.

You guys don't get it. The left routinely dismiss the views of the right as driven by racism (what else do you say when they say "That doesn't change the fact that many are racist. " Want exactly is many? He didn't some, he said many.

Here's a definition http://www.thefreedictionary.com/many

They also dismiss positions as homophobic, misogynistic, or the newest one, they're 'haters'. That's easy. It doesn't require any thought on the left's part.

BTW, svelte, it's funny how you say it's my imagination and in the next sentence say "many are racist". So we'll split hairs,

svelte wrote:
"They can vote Republican for a variety of reasons having nothing to do with racism - and often do. That doesn't change the fact that many are racist. "

Submitted by sdduuuude on August 22, 2012 - 9:27am.

poorgradstudent wrote:
no_such_reality wrote:
I do love how the party of diversity automatically assumes people vote republican because they're racist.

I actually assume it's because they don't care about poor people.

I'm not so sure the Dems really care about poor people, either. The only reason they appear to care is - there's alot of them and they mean votes. You can buy alot more poor people votes for the same money than you can buy rich people's votes. So, if you funnel money from the rich through the government to the poor, guess who is going to get more votes ? And that puts the Dems in office and gets them in a position to funnel money to themselves and their friends, who aren't poor people.

If they really cared about the poor people, they would stop sending them money and teach them to make their own way in life.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 22, 2012 - 9:35am.

sdduuuude wrote:

If they really cared about the poor people, they would stop sending them money and teach them to make their own way in life.

Like increasing availability of student loans and grants? Tuition credits? Jobs training programs? Improving other educational funding? Dem's promote these policies too. It's not either/or.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 22, 2012 - 9:47am.

no_such_reality wrote:
So you just pulled 'terrified of brown people' out of your backside because? Is it a subconscious bias that you're assuming they're racist?

From John McCain's unfounded claim that illegal immigrants started wildfires, to Governor Brewer's unfounded claim about illigal immigrants beheading people, these sorts of claims work. As do Joe Arpaio claims he's made the streets safer by removing illegal immigrants. These appeals work.

Submitted by zk on August 22, 2012 - 10:39am.

sdduuuude wrote:
If they really cared about the poor people, they would stop sending them money and teach them to make their own way in life.

I concur with this totally. And let's be realistic about teaching them to make their own way in life. It's going to be complicated.

Would you be in favor of:

Equally funded schools, regardless of the affluence of the students.
Free (federally paid) parenting classes.
Free life skills classes.
Federally funded information/education campaign to encourage the poor to attend the classes, emphasize education, and generally make their own way.

These are just a few that occur to me off the top of my head. It would take more than just these things, and I'm no expert on it. But obviously you can't just say, "no more money for you" and expect them to figure it out on their own. They're poor for a reason. Sure, in some cases it's laziness or lack of personal initiative. But, in my opinion, more often it's that they're stuck in a culture that encourages behavior that results in them being supported by the government, whether it's via prison, welfare, or other programs. Sure, some of that culture is a result of us giving them money. We fucked up. I think we agree on that.

So let's fix it. But let's be realistic about how it can be fixed. It can't be fixed by just not giving them any more money. Anything that has a shot at working is going to be expensive. It's going to be controversial (how dare you tell us our culture isn't as good as yours). It's going to take a long time. But in the long run, everybody is better off.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on August 22, 2012 - 9:55am.

sdduuuude wrote:
If they really cared about the poor people, they would stop sending them money and teach them to make their own way in life.

Ok, let's use money to teach them how to make their own way in life. Let's call it "Public Education" and make it affordable for all.

Of course, children can't learn if they are sick and hungry, so maybe we should also make sure they have food in their bellies and aren't sick all the time too.

Submitted by zk on August 22, 2012 - 10:00am.

poorgradstudent wrote:
sdduuuude wrote:
If they really cared about the poor people, they would stop sending them money and teach them to make their own way in life.

Ok, let's use money to teach them how to make their own way in life. Let's call it "Public Education" and make it affordable for all.

Of course, children can't learn if they are sick and hungry, so maybe we should also make sure they have food in their bellies and aren't sick all the time too.

Public education is good. But the school my daughter goes to is far different from (better than) the elementary school in National City. This helps perpetuate the cycle of poorness in that area.

Submitted by no_such_reality on August 22, 2012 - 1:27pm.

briansd1 wrote:
Here's the electoral map for you guys to play with.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalcul...

I predict Florida and Nevada to Obama because of "end Medicare as we know it."

NSR, what scenario do you project a win for Romney/Ryan?

Time will tell...

I don't. :-)

Although I put little faith in polls. The LATimes runs polls through USC Dornslife all the time, ever go read the questions? When pollsters call, do you talk to them? I don't.

I think this election on a popular vote will be closer, on an electoral vote, Obama looks strong and heavy hitters like California aren't going to suddenly go Republican. But really, in 2008, Obama has a 24% margin of victory in California, what will it be this year? 20% 15% 10%?

Florida is a must win for Romney. Obama can lose it and still win. If Romney loses Florida, he needs to take every other toss up State or some non-toss ups need to flip.

A lot of it depends on how disgusted the voters get between now and November. The poor swing States are being carpet bombed by negative advertising. Truth, even fragments of truth, disappeared long ago.

The real question is, in the States that are close or potential close whose team is going to have a bunch of no-shows. I honestly don't know.

In my anecdotal world, I know tried and true democrats like my mother and father are just disgusted and are planning on not voting Democrat for the first time in their life. They not voting Republican either, but they're just fed up. Meanwhile, I see the radical fringe of the Republican party getting more riled up and active. And a subset of left, poking them with a stick which keeps them active.

Frankly, in the next eleven weeks, I think it may boil down to which one gets a swiftboating to stick or lands a "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy"

I give the edge to Obama on the latter two.

IMHO, President Obama has squandered his first term to politics and wasted an opportunity to be a truly great president.

Submitted by briansd1 on August 22, 2012 - 3:49pm.

sdduuuude wrote:

I'm not so sure the Dems really care about poor people, either. The only reason they appear to care is - there's alot of them and they mean votes. You can buy alot more poor people votes for the same money than you can buy rich people's votes. So, if you funnel money from the rich through the government to the poor, guess who is going to get more votes ? And that puts the Dems in office and gets them in a position to funnel money to themselves and their friends, who aren't poor people.

If they really cared about the poor people, they would stop sending them money and teach them to make their own way in life.

Democrats care about poor people a lot more than Republicans.

Poor is relative. Republicans like to say that people today are rich compared to 100 years ago. They have TV and heat in the winter. They even have cars! Imagine that...

There will always be poor people relative to what we consider "decent" in our society. We must always strive to improve the quality of life of our citizens and help the poorest among us.

We also need class mobility so poor children can grow up to become their best.

I don't think it's too much to ask of an advanced society.

Submitted by svelte on August 22, 2012 - 4:29pm.

no_such_reality wrote:

You guys don't get it. The left routinely dismiss the views of the right as driven by racism (what else do you say when they say "That doesn't change the fact that many are racist. " Want exactly is many? He didn't some, he said many.

Here's a definition http://www.thefreedictionary.com/many

Still not getting through to you, no_such_reality. No one in this thread said that people vote Republican because they are racist, as you insinuated. Haven't seen you admit that yet.

Then you go on to insinuate that my statement that many (and I meant many, not all, not most, but many exactly as your definition shows) are racist is a generalization that can't be backed up with hard data.

All while you make generalizations about the left that can't be backed up with hard data...which was started above and finished below:

no_such_reality wrote:

They also dismiss positions as homophobic, misogynistic, or the newest one, they're 'haters'. That's easy. It doesn't require any thought on the left's part.

See the humor, Mr. Kettle? :-)

no_such_reality wrote:

BTW, svelte, it's funny how you say it's my imagination and in the next sentence say "many are racist"...

Not getting through to you....re-read what I wrote! I wrote that your insinuation that someone in this thread stated that people vote Republican because they are racist is your imagination and it is - because they never did that!

On to discussion with someone who has better reading comprehension...