Ot. Nothing to see here, just a nuclear plant bombed and on fire...

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Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 4, 2022 - 12:25am

What will it take to alarm the markets? In a way, isn't this more concerning than 9/11? A nuclear power run by an isolated dictator bombing a nuclear power plant to devastate the country. What are the Vegas odds now this spreads to a NATO country. I'm trying not to worry, but jeez, this is fucked up.

I'd put the odds on this being the end of our world at 1:666.

Submitted by flyer on March 4, 2022 - 10:56am.

Definitely concerning, scaredy. Hope those in power find a way to end this before it spreads like a virus, but we'll just have to wait and see.

FWIW, in the past week, we've been hearing a lot more aviation activity than usual out of Miramar, over RSF and Del Mar so, something may be brewing.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 4, 2022 - 3:14pm.

On the bright side, if the world ends, at least I don't have to deal with finishing this damned kitchen remodel.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 4, 2022 - 3:38pm.

Dup

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 4, 2022 - 3:42pm.

At a minimum we are back in a Cold War, Globalization as we have known it for over 30 years is over IMO.

Inflation will probably clock in 7-10% over the next year as well.

Europe and USA will strive to become self sufficient in all things.

I don't think it has sunk in what the end of the previous Cold War did for the world (back to the bad old days).

We will need to do our own dirty jobs, environmentally unfriendly mining/manufacturing instead of getting the Chinese do it for us so we can look all green and everything.

Submitted by svelte on March 4, 2022 - 3:49pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
What will it take to alarm the markets? In a way, isn't this more concerning than 9/11?

I've been wondering the same thing. That this invasion has barely put a dent in the market is, to me, a sure sign of market euphoria.

This is all going to end badly, not sure how or when but I can sure feel it coming.

Buckle up!

scaredyclassic wrote:
On the bright side, if the world ends, at least I don't have to deal with finishing this damned kitchen remodel.

lol I hear ya! We have some horror stories from our kitchen remodel over a decade and a half ago. We've recently been inching towards considering another house remodel including kitch but we get about three sentences in, remember all the misery involved and decide our house is just fine as-is. We don't say that verbally but the silence that ends the conversation is evidence enough we're both thinking it. And think of all the time and money we're saving!

Submitted by svelte on March 4, 2022 - 3:52pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:

We will need to do our own dirty jobs, environmentally unfriendly mining/manufacturing instead of getting the Chinese do it for us so we can look all green and everything.

lol. Have you read the new study that disses ethanol? They have to really stretch to consider it environmentally bad!

Yet I bet the study on EVs glosses over similar evils.

Yeah we as a people are very fond of rose-colored glasses.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 4, 2022 - 4:10pm.

Dup

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 4, 2022 - 5:02pm.

Another interesting dynamic IMO has been India's support for Russia, I wonder how that will play out for the tech industry there as well as H1's here.

There are a lot of dynamic's now going to be put in play IMO.

On-shoring everything possible especially tech related.

EV revolution may get slowed down

Interesting how the world can change so fast no-one seems to be keeping up or paying attention.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 4, 2022 - 5:57pm.

svelte wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
What will it take to alarm the markets? In a way, isn't this more concerning than 9/11?

I've been wondering the same thing. That this invasion has barely put a dent in the market is, to me, a sure sign of market euphoria.

This is all going to end badly, not sure how or when but I can sure feel it coming.

Buckle up!

scaredyclassic wrote:
On the bright side, if the world ends, at least I don't have to deal with finishing this damned kitchen remodel.

lol I hear ya! We have some horror stories from our kitchen remodel over a decade and a half ago. We've recently been inching towards considering another house remodel including kitch but we get about three sentences in, remember all the misery involved and decide our house is just fine as-is. We don't say that verbally but the silence that ends the conversation is evidence enough we're both thinking it. And think of all the time and money we're saving!

I don't even want a kitchen anymore. I'm going to eat in the yard with a hot plate and some bread.

Submitted by zk on March 5, 2022 - 10:24am.

I'm less worried about that nuclear power plant than I am about putin being backed into a corner and starting a nuclear war. I'm not 100% sure I buy what all the pundits are saying about putin being "different" from before and possibly unstable. But it definitely seems possible.

He has said (paraphrasing) "what good is the world without Russia in it?" And he clearly doesn't give a fuck about killing women and babies for no reason other than the glory of his beloved Soviet Union - oops, I mean Russia. What if he sees that before long the economic sanctions are going to ruin his country? What if he senses that the oligarchs are going to turn on him? In what way could the oligarchs turn on him besides assassinating him? It doesn't seem at all unlikely that he will soon conclude that it's him or all of us. Would he push the button then? Would somebody stop him?

What are the chances that putin just gives up and retreats? Practically zero, I would guess. I think the most likely outcome is an occupation of Ukraine by putin. No revelation there. But then what? Between economic sanctions and the costs of war, Russia can't economically survive for long. I have no idea whether the oligarchs will put up with that, and I don't really know whether or not they have both the capability and the huevos to assasinate putin. If they don't, then what? Putin just watches his country die while his citizens turn against him? Propaganda is a strong force, especially in Russia. I suppose it's possible that his citizens, deceived by his propaganda, won't think it's his fault in sufficient numbers and with sufficient energy to do anything about it. Whether they turn against him or not, though, the country will be economically devastated within, I don't know, a couple years anyway. Is putin just going to sit there and let that happen? Will he just sit there knowing he failed to do anything but ruin two countries, including his beloved Russia? More worryingly, will he, at some point, see all of this ahead of him and lash out before all that happens?

Putin is obviously a psychopath. Fellow psychopaths stalin and hitler (and others throughout history) had no problem killing millions of people for the glory of their state (or their ego, or their race, or whatever really drove them). Does it matter to a psycopath like that if its several million or several billion?

All that said, I would still put the risk of global nuclear war in the next 2 years at maybe 1 in 300. Which is up an awful lot from the 1 in 10,000 odds I'd have estimated a year ago.

I'm no expert on any of this, so I don't really know if any of the above even makes sense in real life. And I would like to hear others' opinions. But it makes sense to me.

I have always been the opposite of these guys who always think the apocalypse is coming. Storing guns and ammo and learning survival techniques. But a 1 in 300 chance was enough to prompt me to buy a fishing net and a shotgun. It turns out I already have a lot of other things that would be helpful to survive such a scenario. Looking into water stills or other purification methods. $400 total for a shotgun and a fishing net (and a few other things) seems like cheap insurance. Of course, I'd have to survive the attacks for any of this to matter. But it's possible that we'd see it coming a day or two in advance and have time to get out of dodge (away from Miramar, Camp Pendleton, North Island, etc).

One more fact about putin. He's been reported to be fascinated with Russia's nuclear armaments. An unstable psychopath, fascinated with nuclear weapons and determined to return Russia to glory, backed into a corner with no way out of disaster for his beloved Russia, which he thinks the world is worthless without. For a few hundred bucks that I'll never miss, I'll give my family a little bit better odds of surviving a worst-case scenario.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 6, 2022 - 11:27am.

Assuming we get lucky and this somehow gets resolved without millions dying.

And we just end up in a low grade Cold war, it could be a boon for the defense industry in and around SD.

Also companies will think twice IMO about off-shoring their tech work.

Food for thought, during the Berlin airlift Russia did not yet have Nuclear weapons but the USA did.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on March 5, 2022 - 4:57pm.

zk wrote:

What if he sees that before long the economic sanctions are going to ruin his country?

I doubt that Putin thinks this now. He's probably thinking that just like the past he'll find ways to work around the sanctions. I have no idea whether the sanctions will stick this time around, but I doubt Putin is scared about sanctions. (If the sanctions do hold he might become concerned in the future, but not yet.)

zk wrote:

What if he senses that the oligarchs are going to turn on him? In what way could the oligarchs turn on him besides assassinating him?

I doubt they will, and I doubt he's worried about this either. I would imagine that Putin sees the oligarchs as his tribe. (As much as anyone is in his tribe.) As former KGB I'm sure he's a bit paranoid and suspicious of those who would come after him, but probably oligarchs aren't really the ones he needs to concern himself with. (Military and KGB are probably more likely to be an issue, they are the ones with the guns after all.)

zk wrote:

It doesn't seem at all unlikely that he will soon conclude that it's him or all of us. Would he push the button then? Would somebody stop him?

Putin will use nukes if the military situation escalates enough. But at this point Putin's military losses are minor. He's finding more resistant than he'd like, but nothing that his army can't overcome. But if NATO or the USA sends in troops and the situation escalates, all bets are off. (Please don't take that last sentence as an argument for or against NATO or USA military action, that's a whole other conversation that I'm not addressing here.)

zk wrote:

What are the chances that putin just gives up and retreats? Practically zero, I would guess. I think the most likely outcome is an occupation of Ukraine by putin. No revelation there. But then what?

My suspicion is that the USA and NATO do not actively defend Ukraine and it falls to Russian control in another week or two. Things get interesting then. USA and NATO will try to turn Ukraine into a revisit of Afghanistan for the Russians. I would not be surprised to see the USA/NATO support resistance that makes holding Ukraine costly and bloody.

zk wrote:

Between economic sanctions and the costs of war, Russia can't economically survive for long.

Hmmm... I disagree. Russia will probably not be as prosperous, but that is completely different than not being able to survive. And my biggest point here is that you are trying to look at this situation with the expectation that the participants will act rationally. But people aren't rational, and instead there will be many people in Russia who will support Putin because he's trying to fight for Russia against those "others" who are trying to hold our glorious country back. If you learned nothing about the last few years in the USA, take note of how rationality has little to do with what people think and how much tribalism and nationalistic patriotism does impact peoples beliefs and who they support. (And actually, I think you do know this, you just need to remember it now.)

zk wrote:

I have no idea whether the oligarchs will put up with that, and I don't really know whether or not they have both the capability and the huevos to assasinate putin. If they don't, then what? Putin just watches his country die while his citizens turn against him?

I doubt people in Russia start to die off en mass due to sanctions or resistance in an occupied Ukraine. Instead, things just plod along, and Putin remains in control and fabulously well to do. (Some argue that Putin is far and away the richest man in the world, it's just that his wealth is hidden. I have no idea how true that is or isn't though. But the point is that Putin and his cronies still remain in power and live comfortable lives.)

The biggest upshot out of this is probably a surprising change of opinion in European Union that NATO is not an outdated organization that we shouldn't support. Nothing brings people (in this case the people of Europe) together than the feeling that they have a common enemy.

zk wrote:

Propaganda is a strong force, especially in Russia. I suppose it's possible that his citizens, deceived by his propaganda, won't think it's his fault in sufficient numbers and with sufficient energy to do anything about it.

See above. More likely for many Russians this will be a popular move on Putins part. Just like the USA has pro-Trump and anti-Trump, there will be pro-Putin and anti-Putin. (although anti-Putin won't be too vocal publicly) But bottom line, this probably plays out okay for Putin in Russia.

zk wrote:

Whether they turn against him or not, though, the country will be economically devastated within, I don't know, a couple years anyway. Is putin just going to sit there and let that happen? Will he just sit there knowing he failed to do anything but ruin two countries, including his beloved Russia? More worryingly, will he, at some point, see all of this ahead of him and lash out before all that happens?

The argument that Russia will be economically devastated is overblown in my opinion. Russia is a big place with lots of resources and lots of industrial capacity. It also will still maintain reasonably friendly relations with a lot of other countries. Just because USA and EU are gonna be pissed off at Putin doesn't mean that Russia won't survive. Sure, some oligarchs are gonna have their yachts seized. Maybe some bank accounts, or Manhattan apartments. TFB. They'll get over it. Sanctions may or may not hold, and even if they do they won't devastate the country.

Don't get me wrong here. I do think the invasion of Ukraine is a big deal. And sure there is a chance this escalates into something horrific. But, at this time, it looks like a really bad situation for Ukraine, a bunch of sanctions that will cause some pain to Russia but nothing devastating, and will cause the rest of Europe to think more about their security.

All that said, I have strongly felt for a long time that WWI and WWII taught the world the disaster that nationalism and flag waving patriotism can lead to. But it's been over 75 years since WWII ended and it seems a lot of that lesson has been forgotten. And if we don't relearn that lesson some other way, sooner or later nationalism will lead us to another major war. But hopefully I'm not just being foolishly optimistic when I say, "yes, but not yet."

Submitted by zk on March 5, 2022 - 6:01pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
And my biggest point here is that you are trying to look at this situation with the expectation that the participants will act rationally.

Not sure what I wrote that gave you that impression, but whatever it was, I certainly don't expect rational behavior from putin or from any Russian people who have been exposed to enough propaganda. I think the only possible reason that they wouldn't turn on putin in the face of massive economic pain is because they've been deceived by propaganda. Of course, Russians turning on putin would only happen if the sanctions are as effective as I think they'll be. If you are right and I am wrong about the sanctions, the situation (for the world, but not for Ukraine) isn't as dire.

I probably did overstate even my own position when I said Russia couldn't "survive" the sanctions and that their economy would be "devastated." But short of extinction or devastation, there are many levels of pain. At what level of pain, if any, does the pain become a problem for putin's grip on the country?

Your position is that whatever level that is, the sanctions aren't likely to bring us to that level (if I read correctly). I don't know whether to root for that or not. If the sanctions cause enough pain, maybe they compel putin to give up and leave Ukraine (extremely doubtful), or maybe they compel the oligarchs or the military or the KGB (or the Russian people, if they're able) to get rid of putin. But in the devastating-sanctions scenario there is also the risk that putin is pushed to a breaking point and he pushes the button. If the sanctions don't cause enough pain, Ukraine stays occupied and putin stays in power.

The only reasonably likely scenario that I can think of that is not terrible (terrible being, at a minimum, Ukranian loss of soveriegnty, many Ukranian and Russian war deaths, economic pain for the Russian people and, to a lesser degree, economic pain for Russia's trading partners) is somebody getting rid of putin.

Submitted by spdrun on March 6, 2022 - 11:19am.

Fourth solution which Israel is likely mediating.

Russia gets to keep Crimea, Donetsk, and Luzhansk. What's left of Ukraine (most of it) agrees to never seek NATO membership and to neutrality. Ukraine is granted similar status to Switzerland and Norway (EEA/Schengen) with respect to the EU.

Putin gets to claim success in protecting the "Free People's Republics".

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 7, 2022 - 10:29am.

1 in 10 chance.

Wow that's kind of unsettling

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 8, 2022 - 5:52pm.

Just watched a simulation map,

Seems you want to be somewhere in the middle of South America.

No one is targeting them.

Submitted by zk on March 8, 2022 - 6:53pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
1 in 10 chance.

Wow that's kind of unsettling

1 in 10 chance of what? (And according to who?)

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 7:03pm.

...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 8, 2022 - 7:24pm.

An investment research firm is warning that while there is a 1-in-10 chance Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end in nuclear catastrophe, investors should still be ready to pad their portfolios.

https://gazette.com/news/investment-firm...

OK so maybe not the ultimate authority but everyday this goes on is not improving our odds that something stupid does not occur INO.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 7:38pm.

Cool, we're all dead or glowing for radioactive fallout...

I don't know, I think the in the longer term, if we aren't all dead from nukes, it might be better for the U.S.

We might actually have a viable energy policy that isn't as dependent on foreign oil.

Also, this probably also gives thought to China and the chip supply chain.

Besides just a supply chain shortage, there's serious national security reasons not to count exclusively on Taiwan, in case China pulls a Putin and goes rogue on Taiwan. Now, China is probably also having second thoughts about that, because it's pretty impressive what the US and EU countries have done to bring Russia's economy down on it's knees. And it's pretty awesome that although Russia has a lot of reserves in US obligations, they can't access it. ha ha ha... China is probably taking note that it could be them too.

That said, with inflation, it makes more sense to onshore chip fab back in the US. Comsumers can absorb the higher cost since everything else is going up in price. Glad to see Intel, TSM, Samsung, and others expanding chip fab here in the US. Good news for tech.

Go Joe Go!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 8, 2022 - 8:04pm.

Re-shoring/On-shoring Assuming we get lucky (which is likely) and we just end up in a low grade cold war.

Some serious (probably dirtier then most would like to see) mining will need to be Re-shored as well.

EV's have environmental costs too.

Submitted by Coronita on March 8, 2022 - 8:42pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Re-shoring/On-shoring Assuming we get lucky (which is likely) and we just end up in a low grade cold war.

Some serious (probably dirtier then most would like to see) mining will need to be Re-shored as well.

EV's have environmental costs too.

Yes, EV isn't the complete solution. I think it's more of a bandaid.

I do think it would be cool if we have more solar farms in the desert and share energy across states. For instance all that dessert in Arizona, Utah, New Mexico could be used for solar farms. Just need a way to transmit and transfer that generated electricity.

Also, it would be great if we spent more on researching alternative fuels, more friendly. I don't think ICB are all going away. It would be great if we have a viable biodiesel, not just B20 or B30 blend.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 9, 2022 - 8:17am.

The answer is bicycles. But we prefers bandaids.

Submitted by spdrun on March 9, 2022 - 10:06am.

Bicycles and trains both to move people longer distances and deliver stuff. Electric vehicles without range limits. Maybe Hyperloops for freight as well.

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 10:34am.

With over $5/gallon of gas, perhaps one of the federal and state energy policies would be to help consumers reduce consumption..

A quick and dirty solution would be just to give companies a financial incentive to allow more employees to work from home more, so they don't need to be on the road as much.

It's not that far off from the reality. When I was in L.A. interning for a defense contractor, they gave an employee that wanted it a free coaster shuttle shuttle that would pick you up and drop you off to and from work. You didn't need to pay for gas and time going back and forth between the office, which was like 45 minutes 1 way. L.A. did this as one of many ways to cut down on traffic congestion.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 9, 2022 - 10:44am.

Gets to the point of real Gas shortages (station closing etc...),

I think we will get some type of no/don't commute order.

Actually not a bad Idea to get ahead of it and do it now IMHO.

Submitted by spdrun on March 9, 2022 - 12:18pm.

Forcing people to WFH will just decimate electric/clean transit systems and encourage them to sprawl out, which will actually increase driving and unsustainable development long-term. Let fuel prices rise to $5/gal. Let people make their own more efficient choices. Maybe people wouldn't be buying 15 mpg pickups to drive to the grocery store if gas were priced in accordance with its ecological effects.

Forcing people to work from home to keep gas prices low to enable the sprawl/consumption economy is illogical.

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 12:41pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Gets to the point of real Gas shortages (station closing etc...),

I think we will get some type of no/don't commute order.

Actually not a bad Idea to get ahead of it and do it now IMHO.

In 1979, i remember my parents driving when fuel was rationed. Plates ending with an odd number could only fill up on specific days, even ending plates on the other days.

It's not forcing people to WFH, it's giving employers an incentive to encourage people to WFH, no different than handing people a trolley/bus pass for free. Better than simply reduce fuel taxes or give gasoline tax credits that Newsom is proposing.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2022 - 12:54pm.

I want gas money from Newsom

Submitted by Coronita on March 9, 2022 - 1:26pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I want gas money from Newsom

You have an electric car, lol...

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