OT: North Korea danger

User Forum Topic
Submitted by spdrun on August 30, 2017 - 11:12am

What are the chances of the following scenario?

(1) North Korea launches a test missile or five.
(2) One or more end up off course towards Russia
(3) Russia shoots their wad in North Korea's direction
(4) The Chinese think that the launch is intended at them, launch at Russia
(5) US sees missiles flying around, jumps into the game
(6) The only way to win is not to play

Scary s**t, makes me want to move to Argentina.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2018 - 12:29pm.

spdrun, are you still scared?

North Korea got what it wanted; so I think there will be peace for a while.

I predict there will be a slow reunification of the Koreas, once the North Korean elite is assured that they have a role to play (like when Germany was reunified).

Geopolitically, the Koreas want reunification which will strengthen their economies and provide workers to fuel the Korean economic miracle.

China and Russia will be happy because they rid the US off the peninsula.

Korea will get overtake Japan in relevance and economic growth, getting their revenge on a historical oppressor. Wealth and success is the best revenge. So no wonder, South Korea was delivering message directly to Trump.

Japan and the US will be become less relevant in Asia. Well played, China! As the US retreats, China will become the largest trading power.

Trump is really the best thing that could have happened to China.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 12, 2018 - 12:46pm.

So you are saying we were better off with no agreement?

I don't think the US will lose much influence in Asia that it would not have loss regardless (time marches on into the future).

The USA will do just fine IMO.

Do you think Hillary would have been able to pull it off?

For better or worse, I don't think there would have even been a meeting if it were not for Trump,

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2018 - 2:43pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
So you are saying we were better off with no agreement?

I don't think the US will lose much influence in Asia that it would not have loss regardless (time marches on into the future).

The USA will do just fine IMO.

Do you think Hillary would have been able to pull it off?

For better or worse, I don't think there would have even been a meeting if it were not for Trump,

It depends on your perspective.

If you think that the US is spending money unnecessarily to protect South Korea and Japan, then withdrawing is fine.

If you think that the USA needs to project power to counter Russia and China, then we are losing.

I agree that time marches on, but TPP would have created a large trading block that excludes China, and provide incentives for countries such as Vietnam to be on our side. I believe Hillary would have signed TPP.

Guess what? The countries of Asia will now all link to China with Belt and Road.

Russia is turning to China and away from Europe. Belt and Road is reaching into Europe with freight trains already to the UK and Spain.

Canada is tripling the transmountain pipeline to sell oil to China.

Australia has no choice but to deal with China.

Of course, the USA will be fine (fine is relative). But we risk losing supremacy and the US Dollar as a reserve currency. And that will lower our standards of living. It won't happen overnight, but as you say, time marches on. We don't need to accelerate our decline with bad policies.

BTW, Clinton did have a deal with North Korea to stop developing nuclear weapons, which NK didn't have at the time... but GWB came in at peak American power and reneged on the agreement which caused NK to restart. Unfortunately, we got bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq so we couldn't deal with NK in time.

Clinton basically had a better deal than Trump, but without the face to face elevation of Kim on the world stage, and without the ceasing of military exercises as a concession.

Freeze for freeze was the Chinese plan which Trump previously rejected. Trump jumped on the summit only when he got the invite through South Korea. So now, Trump is offering freeze for negotiations moving forward. How soon people forget.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl...

During this summit, Kim got a freeze. And a promise of eventual withdrawal of the 32,000 American Troops.
Kim also got a future invite to the White House. And Trump will visit Pyongyang, at the appropriate time. Sounds like they got along well.
https://youtu.be/2Qg4JMcA3Gc

Kim got his expenses paid by singapore, under American behest.
https://nypost.com/2018/06/01/us-may-end...

Anyway, whatever one's opinions, we gotta love the statecraft.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2018 - 2:12pm.

This is what Fox News is saying. Judge for yourself.
Moving at the speed of Trump:

https://youtu.be/ok44_RNEklA

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 12, 2018 - 3:36pm.

"he got the invite through South Korea"

This kind of tells you something all by itself actually.

Not really a Trump fan so don't get me wrong, but the 24/7 media war by CNN and others is getting kinda old to the point where it may even be helping Trump.

Maybe they should get back to their old biz model and report world new a little more and lighten up a little on the Trump 24/7 beat-up.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 12, 2018 - 4:12pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
"he got the invite through South Korea"

This kind of tells you something all by itself actually.

Not really a Trump fan so don't get me wrong, but the 24/7 media war by CNN and others is getting kinda old to the point where it may even be helping Trump.

Maybe they should get back to their old biz model and report world new a little more and lighten up a little on the Trump 24/7 beat-up.

What does it tell you?

To me, Trump was easy to get, accepting an invite through an intermediary. He said yes immediately to the South Koreans. He didn't even convene a national security meeting. And he hasn't involved the national security team.

Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula sounds like a withdrawal by the US, exactly what China and North Korea wanted all along. Not a win for the US.

Anyway, China proposed freeze for freeze which Trump rejected before. Now Trump offers freeze even before getting freeze in return. Plus Kim gets a summit.

Objectively who were the better deal makers?

As Trump likes to say, we will see....

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 13, 2018 - 12:34am.

The video that Trump showed Kim about prosperity that NK could enjoy is all about cities, highrise buildings, technology. The kind of metropolitan life that we should aspire to. Nothing rural, rustic or backward.

https://youtu.be/aYsaC2CADs0

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 13, 2018 - 9:22am.

It tells me the S-Korean's were ready to try.

All else being equal if it works, we should get out of the way maybe.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 13, 2018 - 10:57am.

Hooray! Good news today. North Korea is no longer a danger

Submitted by outtamojo on June 13, 2018 - 11:04am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Hooray! Good news today. North Korea is no longer a danger

Now that NK is solved lets focus on those dastardly Canadians.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.