OT: Ebola - Global Pandemic?

User Forum Topic
Submitted by paramount on July 31, 2014 - 11:51am

Time to run down to home depot to pick up some masks/respirators?

Time to close the borders?

A repeat of the Spanish Flu Pandemic of 1917-1918 only deadlier?

Or pure hysteria?

http://youtu.be/JnQVUf775VE

Ebola 2014

Submitted by Doofrat on July 31, 2014 - 2:24pm.

I actually read a book about Ebola long ago. I forget the title, but it went into the Ebola (and closely related virus like Marburg) outbreaks in Africa and the United States (Yes, there was an outbreak of Marburg in the US). In it's present form, Ebola has a strange contagion profile that they didn't understand back then, maybe there's more info now, but it seemed to not be as contagious as you'd think. Even when gobs of the virus were around, it wasn't always easy to catch. IMHO, I think the virus is more amenable to the living conditions in Africa where someone gets it and people don't realize and hygienic conditions are a little more lax.

Submitted by bibsoconner on July 31, 2014 - 5:03pm.

I recommend just taking it easy, pour yourself a drink, and sit down and watch a movie to take your mind off all this talk of pandemics, plagues, and the collapse of civilization. World War Z would be a good choice.

Submitted by jeff303 on July 31, 2014 - 5:10pm.

doofrat wrote:
I actually read a book about Ebola long ago. I forget the title, but it went into the Ebola (and closely related virus like Marburg) outbreaks in Africa and the United States (Yes, there was an outbreak of Marburg in the US). In it's present form, Ebola has a strange contagion profile that they didn't understand back then, maybe there's more info now, but it seemed to not be as contagious as you'd think. Even when gobs of the virus were around, it wasn't always easy to catch. IMHO, I think the virus is more amenable to the living conditions in Africa where someone gets it and people don't realize and hygienic conditions are a little more lax.

There's a book called The Hot Zone, not sure if that's the one you're thinking of but it might be. That book happened to dramatize real events (surprise, surprise) and faced criticism from real experts (details on that book's Wikipedia article).

As to the original question, I think it's about 80% hysteria. We definitely know a lot more now than we did in the earlier cases from '89-'90. And I trust some of our government experts (I know, blech) when it comes to containment of it, at least as much as I trust anyone in the world. Ebola, dramatizations notwithstanding, is a seriously scary disease. The good (?) news is that the really deadly strains tend to kill the host before they can spread it too far.

Submitted by spdrun on July 31, 2014 - 5:20pm.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-v...

Apparently, they're flying an American Ebola patient to Atlanta for medical treatment. Glad I'm not anywhere near ATL.

Submitted by UCGal on July 31, 2014 - 5:45pm.

As far as contagion - the issue is with bodily fluids. So as long as you don't touch/ingest/etc any pee, poop, blood, spit, sweat etc of the patient, you should be fine.

Most of the outbreak origins can be traced back to eating infected animals. Like an infected monkey...

It sounds like it's kind of like AIDS - as long as you use precautions around the patient not to get exposed to their body fluids, you're less likely to get it.

Submitted by spdrun on July 31, 2014 - 5:49pm.

Problem is that on a train or bus, you may well be touching the sweat or even spittle of the person who sat in the seat before you :(

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 31, 2014 - 6:04pm.

RUN FOR THE HILLS!!

uhh I mean, "DON'T PANIC"!!

Submitted by paramount on July 31, 2014 - 6:18pm.

UCGal wrote:
As far as contagion - the issue is with bodily fluids. So as long as you don't touch/ingest/etc any pee, poop, blood, spit, sweat etc of the patient, you should be fine.

Most of the outbreak origins can be traced back to eating infected animals. Like an infected monkey...

It sounds like it's kind of like AIDS - as long as you use precautions around the patient not to get exposed to their body fluids, you're less likely to get it.

The video in the op suggests Ebola is now airborne to a limited extent.

Submitted by joec on August 2, 2014 - 11:31am.

I think the concern is that unlike AIDS, you can get Ebola from minor things like tears (someone rubs their eyes), touches a surface, you sit or touch the same surface with your hands, you sneeze, cover your mouth, etc...

Sweat like someone else said as well...

Overall, sounds like a more deadly virus since it can survive outside the body I've read and "could" be airborne from a sneeze or sweat, etc...

All in all, safer to just stay far away if you can.

Submitted by zk on August 2, 2014 - 2:22pm.

There seems to be a tendency toward paranoia in people's reactions to ebola. Without a very significant change in the way the virus is spread, a global pandemic is not possible.

Submitted by moneymaker on August 2, 2014 - 2:28pm.

I think I might have a cure, anybody want to be a test subject? Amazing how quickly the doctor died in Africa, sounds like it is a lot more deadly than AIDS. The WIKI is very detailed on the subject. I was in Africa in 1987 and was vomiting and throwing up simultaneously, good thing I was unaware of Ebola at the time or I probably would have been freaking out.

Submitted by zk on August 2, 2014 - 3:17pm.

moneymaker wrote:
I think I might have a cure, anybody want to be a test subject? Amazing how quickly the doctor died in Africa, sounds like it is a lot more deadly than AIDS. The WIKI is very detailed on the subject. I was in Africa in 1987 and was vomiting and throwing up simultaneously, good thing I was unaware of Ebola at the time or I probably would have been freaking out.

You're right, it's more deadly than AIDS. And transmission methods are about the same. But people have and spread HIV for years without even realizing they have it. If you get Ebola, you know about it in a few days. That's a very small window for spreading it, considering the methods by which it is transmitted. Therefore, unless the method of transmission changes very significantly (or the time between acquiring the virus and the beginning of symptoms increases drastically), it will never be as widespread as AIDS.

Submitted by joec on August 2, 2014 - 5:44pm.

Maybe it's also more deadly because by the time you figure you have it, you could be dead in 10 days...it's that deadly I've read. Hard to do much long term research when all the carriers or infected people are dead before any treatment can be tested.

Also, after a certain point when these outbreaks happen in the past, they just quarantine everyone and wait for people to die/burn all bodies and try to contain it.

I did read that some people survived it and were carriers so it's possible...but the majority don't seem to.

It shuts down all your organs and attacks everything so it's a pretty gruesome way to die...

At least it's quick (and unfortunately, very painful).

Submitted by paramount on August 6, 2014 - 9:12pm.

Fear Factor?

CDC Raises Response to Highest Alert Amid Ebola Outbreak

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday ramped up its response to the expanding Ebola outbreak, a move that frees up hundreds of employees and signals the agency sees the health emergency as a potentially long and serious one.

The CDC’s “level 1 activation” is reserved for the most serious public health emergencies, and the agency said the move was appropriate considering the outbreak’s “potential to affect many lives.” The CDC took a similar move in 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and again in 2009 during the bird-flu threat.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-v...

Submitted by kev374 on August 6, 2014 - 11:51pm.

I would be worried about planes as people are in very close proximity to each other there... a sneeze or cough onto another person could transmit the virus as it takes only a microscopic amount to infect another person...although they say it isn't possible to spread it through aerosol i'm not entirely convinced it's impossible..unlikely perhaps, impossible not sure.

The virus is supposed to be very hardy and can survive outside the body for many days.

Submitted by zk on August 7, 2014 - 7:51am.

paramount wrote:
Fear Factor?

CDC Raises Response to Highest Alert Amid Ebola Outbreak

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday ramped up its response to the expanding Ebola outbreak, a move that frees up hundreds of employees and signals the agency sees the health emergency as a potentially long and serious one.

The CDC’s “level 1 activation” is reserved for the most serious public health emergencies, and the agency said the move was appropriate considering the outbreak’s “potential to affect many lives.” The CDC took a similar move in 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and again in 2009 during the bird-flu threat.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/cdc-raises-response-highest-alert-amid-ebola-outbreak-n174496

"Many lives" doesn't necessarily mean "many lives in the U.S." The CDC is sending staff to the four affected African countries. In Africa, where this disease is actually a problem, they frequently perform rituals after people die. Rituals that involve exposing themselves to the bodily fluids of the dead. That's the main reason it spreads so much there. And that's the reason there isn't a realistic chance that it'll be widespread anywhere else (at least anywhere else where they don't regularly subject themselves to sick/dead people's bodily fluids).

If you're the type who always sees storm clouds gathering or an apocalypse coming, this is a perfect opportunity for you to panic. But nothing is going to happen to you. There will be no pandemic.

Submitted by zk on August 8, 2014 - 7:37am.

.

Submitted by UCGal on August 7, 2014 - 10:27am.

paramount wrote:
Fear Factor?

CDC Raises Response to Highest Alert Amid Ebola Outbreak

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday ramped up its response to the expanding Ebola outbreak, a move that frees up hundreds of employees and signals the agency sees the health emergency as a potentially long and serious one.

The CDC’s “level 1 activation” is reserved for the most serious public health emergencies, and the agency said the move was appropriate considering the outbreak’s “potential to affect many lives.” The CDC took a similar move in 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and again in 2009 during the bird-flu threat.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/cdc-raises-response-highest-alert-amid-ebola-outbreak-n174496

I presume you get a flu shot each year. You realize influenza kills WAY more people each year than ebola. Try to put things in perspective.

Submitted by Doofrat on August 7, 2014 - 10:29am.

zk wrote:

"Many lives" doesn't necessarily mean "many lives in the U.S." The CDC is sending staff to the four affected African countries. In Africa, where this disease is actually a problem, they frequently perform rituals after people die. Rituals that involve exposing themselves to the bodily fluids of the dead. That's the main reason it spreads so much there. And that's the reason there isn't a realistic chance that it'll be widespread anywhere else (at least anywhere else where they don't regularly subject themselves to sick/dead people's bodily fluids).

If you're the type who always sees storm clouds gathering or an apocalypse coming, this is a perfect opportunity for you to panic. But nothing is going to happen to you. There will be no pandemic.

When Swine Flu was killing everybody in Mexico City, a guy I work with (who's from Mexico City) was totally unworried. He said that because the people generally aren't the healthiest there and the air is so bad, any time there's a Flu, it kills a lot of people there. I think it's the same thing with Africa.
The one advantage to Ebola is in how fast it kills.
Sure, there's the off chance that you end up on a plane with an Ebola victim who's travelling on holiday from Sierra Leone to Maui, but that's pretty remote. Then there's the scenario that every body's worried about of the contagion spreading. While in Maui, you come across a traveller that has contacted the Ebola patient from Sierra Leone and the Sierra Leone patient coughed up infected blood all over said traveller and the second person got ingested it through an open wound or inhaled droplets. A person who is at the point of hemorraging Ebola virus is going to already be in bad shape, and your fellow traveller is going to take a while to build up enough virus to start hemorraging it and at that point will probably be too sick to contact you in a way to make you sick. Then they only have a small number of days left to infect fellow people. I just don't think it's that contagious.
Also, Ebola's been around a while and despite the poor sanitation and post mortem practices in Africa, it still hasn't exploded into a huge outbreak there.

Submitted by Aecetia on August 8, 2014 - 7:10pm.

The Stand in 3 minutes.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Im1mZokp9go

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 30, 2014 - 5:22pm.

Bump
It's here!!

Submitted by outtamojo on September 30, 2014 - 10:54pm.

yeah, just goes to show if there ever was a zombie virus we are all dead er walking meat.

Submitted by CA renter on October 1, 2014 - 3:04am.

It always starts with one case...

[Just kidding, kinda-sorta.]

Submitted by zk on October 1, 2014 - 3:41pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Bump
It's here!!

It's here. But not for long. And not really in a way that's worthy of two exclamation points.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 1, 2014 - 3:52pm.

OK sure or maybe that's what they want you to believe.

Just kidding sort of.

Submitted by zk on October 1, 2014 - 3:59pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
OK sure or maybe that's what they want you to believe.

Just kidding sort of.

You're paranoid.

Just kidding sort of.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on October 1, 2014 - 4:34pm.

Yep most likely I am paranoid,

After he was sent home from the emergency room the first time

DALLAS (Reuters) - Two days after he was sent home from a Dallas hospital, the man who is the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex as he was bundled into an ambulance.

"His whole family was screaming. He got outside and he was throwing up all over the place," resident Mesud Osmanovic, 21, said on Wednesday, describing the chaotic scene before the man was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital on Sunday where he is in serious condition.

Submitted by flyer on October 1, 2014 - 5:18pm.

Don't know if they will be able to live up to this promise. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-yo...

Submitted by zk on October 1, 2014 - 6:37pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Yep most likely I am paranoid,

After he was sent home from the emergency room the first time

DALLAS (Reuters) - Two days after he was sent home from a Dallas hospital, the man who is the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex as he was bundled into an ambulance.

"His whole family was screaming. He got outside and he was throwing up all over the place," resident Mesud Osmanovic, 21, said on Wednesday, describing the chaotic scene before the man was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital on Sunday where he is in serious condition.

If anything in that article makes you fear a widespread outbreak (or believe that "that's what they want you to believe"), then you are paranoid.

Not kidding at all.

Submitted by CA renter on October 1, 2014 - 9:20pm.

zk wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Yep most likely I am paranoid,

After he was sent home from the emergency room the first time

DALLAS (Reuters) - Two days after he was sent home from a Dallas hospital, the man who is the first person to be diagnosed with Ebola in the United States was seen vomiting on the ground outside an apartment complex as he was bundled into an ambulance.

"His whole family was screaming. He got outside and he was throwing up all over the place," resident Mesud Osmanovic, 21, said on Wednesday, describing the chaotic scene before the man was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital on Sunday where he is in serious condition.

If anything in that article makes you fear a widespread outbreak (or believe that "that's what they want you to believe"), then you are paranoid.

Not kidding at all.

You have to admit, zk, that this doesn't look good. How many people have come into contact with this person's blood, saliva, feces, urine, semen, etc.? From there, nobody knows how it could play out. Did they get a hazmat team, experienced in handling this type of situation, to clean up the vomit? What about when he used the bathroom in the airport or this apartment, or in any restaurants, stores, etc. that he might have visited when he first got to the U.S.? Did a lot of friends/relatives come by to visit while he was sick?

Just too little info to know how this will play out, one way or another.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.