OT: Countdown: Three Weeks to Chaos

User Forum Topic
Submitted by partypup on September 17, 2008 - 10:37pm

I know that I have been characterized as "alarmist" and a "doomsayer" by many on this board in the past, but I would be remiss if I did not pass along some information to you all that I have learned from a very knowledgeable and well-placed source in the finance industry who has guided me for the past two years as I have attempted to navigate this crisis.

This source predicted, four (4) months ago, that the market would enter a heart-pounding phase in mid-late September. It would be as though, in his words, "the world would hold its breath" in anticipation of what would follow.

And then, on or about the first week of October, the dam would suddenly burst and the ride to hell would begin -- for months. He predicted that the system would experience a massive seizure, such that all electronic forms of trade (stocks, banks, ATMS) would simply fail. And the much-delayed death of the dollar would begin in earnest.

This coincides almost exactly with what the think tank at LEAP (http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-in-English_r25.html) has been predicting for the past 18 months. I have studied each of their reports, in which they have consistently labeled Fall 2008 as the point in which the world in general, and the U.S. in particular, would enter the heart of the system crisis. The only variation I note is that LEAP estimates that the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency will cease around the end of the 2nd quarter of 2009. My source believes that it will happen sooner. Or perhaps it is the case that the process begins in October and culminates in June. In any event,
the Fall and Winter are going to be extraordinarily brutal.

I am hoping that all who read this will understand the message that I am trying to relay to you: time is short. Many of us have been expecting what is coming from months or years. Some have only awaken to what is coming a few months ago. Others still don't understand what is coming. But as Wall St literally disintegrates before our eyes, I don't think there can be any question at this point that we are on the verge of something unprecedented and catastrophic.

If you have money in the markets, you need to get it out NOW.

If you have a 401K and are fearful of a withdrawal penalty and taxes, keep in mind that 60% of something is better than 100% of nothing.

If you have more funds in your bank than the absolute minimum necessary to pay your expenses, then you're playing Vegas odds. FDIC is technically insolvent as I write this, and one more major bank failure will trigger an unstoppable run on our retail banking system.

Buy a safe. Keep as much cash at home as you feel comfortable storing. BUY METALS. They will be volatile in the near term, but they are truly your best bet for asset protection in a world that is about to implode in a derivatives supernova.

The Chinese did something astounding today: they effectively broadcast to the world that a new world reserve currency is needed. The world heard them. And gold soared almost $100 today. I think that any thinking person can see that the unthinkable is now about to happen. The dollar is about to become irrelevant.

http://us.mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/An...

And lastly, at the risk of sounding completely alarmist, I would advise you all to begin stocking up on goods that you will need to keep your household functioning in the near (and possibly long) term. When the system fails, there will be massive supply disruptions for a variety of reasons, not the least of which will be that panic will trigger a hoarding mentality, gas will be in short supply and inventories will be easily wiped off of store shelves. Can we buy enough food and supplies to last the rest of our lives? Of course not. The goal here is simply not to be a casualty in the first wave of the tsunami that will wipe out millions. Once the first wave has passed, we can pick ourselves up, look around for a place of safety and start moving.

I'm not advising anyone to buy a gun or any form of protection, although I think civil unrest is entirely possible, particularly in large metropolitan areas.

I am simply advising that, at a minimum, we all be prudent in preparing for what now seems inevitable. An ounce of prevention in these times is easily worth a ton of cure.

For those who may disagree with my post, I respect your opinion and would only ask that you not denigrate mine and simply move on to the next thread. I share this information with you all solely out of a concern for my fellow citizens.

I am hoping this thread will allow like-minded individuals to share practical information and advice as we all move into a grim and unchartered period in our nation's history.

Good luck to us all.

Submitted by Arraya on October 30, 2008 - 9:04pm.

TheBreeze wrote:
So it's now been 6 weeks since the original post was made. When's the chaos going to get here already? Or did it get here and I missed it? Wasn't gold supposed to sky rocket?

Well, Breeze, first you will have to concede that there is more to the world than just socal and the US. I realize this is tough for most of us here in the Insulated states of America. However, If you decide to broaden your horizon and look around at the world in which you live you may see what is happening. Just because you're not sitting in canyon with a broken CD carving meat off a dog to feed you family does not invalidate anything. Now, go back to sleep and rejoice that Obama is going to save the world.

Here listen to this interview. It's a pretty *Interesting* perspective on the disaster unfolding at least on the economic side and accurate IMO. Enjoy.

http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/bro...

Submitted by partypup on October 30, 2008 - 9:16pm.

TheBreeze wrote:
So it's now been 6 weeks since the original post was made. When's the chaos going to get here already? Or did it get here and I missed it? Wasn't gold supposed to sky rocket?

Well, let's see...the Dow lost 2,000 points this month (all in one week) and lost as much as 3,000 points at one point. All in one month. Did you miss that? Because I'm sure the traders and hedge fund managers and bank CEOs who are now scrambling for life vests didn't miss it.

And if you want to know if the price of gold is "skyrocketing"...try buying some from a dealer. Oh, and let me know if you find any for less than $150 over spot. Here, I'll help you. Let's look on eBay:

http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-American-Gold-E...

17 bids at $953 per Troy ounce. Hmmmm....how about that? Guess it doesn't pay to spend too much time watching the gold futures market. Since it's just paper.

So let's review: physical gold up 20% in October. Dow down 24% in October...

Yep, sure looks like gold is skyrocketing to me. And I'd say the market is in chaos.

Now you're up to speed, Breeze. Check back in more often ;-)

Submitted by Arraya on October 30, 2008 - 9:30pm.

And lets now forget the treasury gave us a 700 billion dollar ransom note and was given dictatorial powers. 22 countries are on varying *brinks* and I am sure many more under reassuring veils of PR. Iceland's food shelves emptied, and bank accounts were seized in Argentina and Australia. The IMF is blackmailing the bankrupted countries and we have a full blown currency crisis throughout the world. Oh, we also started fighting in Pakistan and Syria.

Yeah, everything is fine. Look the DOW was up today.

Submitted by Arraya on October 30, 2008 - 10:14pm.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/ <---this guy is great for you engineering types.

A short PBS interview with Benoit Mandelbrot and my compatriot, Nassim Taleb, on the current financial/economic crisis.

It underlines my ongoing fear that this crisis will recast the world at a fundamental level. Why? Our simplistic, slow, and fractured 20th Century control system isn't capable of stabilizing a financial/economic system of this complexity/speed/size once it becomes very turbulent. As a result, the global system will follow its own course, dictated by its hypercomplex internal dynamics and feedback loops, destroying everything that gets in its way. Otherwise known as Chaos;)

Like Nassim, I hope I'm wrong.

snip

One of the most interesting aspects of this crisis is that it is truly a global crisis. This is arguably a first. In historical crises, wars or catastrophes, there is always a large external environment of relative normalcy. Our first real global event will directly impact all economic activity from Botswana to Albany at a relatively granular level. It's even more interesting since the impact of this event is occurring simultaneously in all places at once.

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogoct08/cred...

Without commercial credit, trade grinds to a halt - whether in 1706 or
2008. Now as commercial credit has been severely impaired, global trade
and production are indeed threatened on many fronts
. Contributor Harun I.
sent in this Bloomberg story about agricultural production being at risk of
declines due to the tightening of credit to farmers: "The credit crunch is
compounding a profit squeeze for farmers that may curb global harvests
and worsen a food crisis for developing countries. Global production of
wheat, the most-consumed food crop, may drop 4.4 percent next year,
said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co. in Chicago, who has advised
farmers, food companies and investors for 29 years. Harvests of corn and
soybeans also are likely to fall, Basse said." Here we see the "unintended
consequences" of the credit crisis. Commercial credit is the lifeblood of
capitalism, be it the Version1.0 of 1072 or V1.9 in 1706 or V2.11 in 2008.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/nyregi...

Governors David A. Paterson of New York and Jon S. Corzine of New Jersey
added their voices Wednesday to the growing support for a second federal
economic stimulus package, saying state governments face devastating
cutbacks if they did not receive assistance soon. Appearing before
separate congressional committees, they said that their states, like many
others, had already moved to address budget deficits. Their actions alone
would not be enough, they said. Their remarks increased the pressure on
the federal government to include money for state governments in the
next round of economic stimulus legislation, pointedly putting the requests
of two of the nation’s most populous states on the [Cong

Submitted by NotCranky on October 30, 2008 - 10:22pm.

Arraya,Thanks for your answers I believe you. My oxygen mask is already on, figuratively speaking of course. Trust me I have just as many selfish impulses borne of fear of financial insecurity as anyone does. I posted what I did as much to challenge myself as anyone else.

Nost, I fear people and situations like you describe too. You would help them in a sensible way but they don't want that, they want it all for nothing and don't mind jacking people for it.

Partypup, Your last post actually describes my last several years experience with regards to this topic almost exactly. I got out of LA a lot earlier though.I knew four years ago that we would have the biggest recession of my lifetime. I am 47. I don't think there is any reason to count or insist that anything worse than that is certain. Of course sporadically bad thngs will happen, they always do.

I have given a lot of the kinds or advice you have given.Of course most other people's money behaviors are none of my business. Most of my friends are doing fine ,less so my family. Besides that I am not exactly rich so who am I to say. I am just a bit like the pig of the three pigs who built the brick house.

I have told people, because I don't know rich people, not to buy houses since spring of 2003 and I have a sales license. I am currently representing my first buyer since then at almost 50% off from last sale,This is someone I convinced to sell at the peak and rent. I told a lot of people to stay out of the market who I will never see again.Oh well. I am considering getting business cards because I think there are good odds that the purchases will work out better as time goes on. I am not promising anyone anything though.

O.K the important part...
Now, let me ask you: how do YOU propose to be "useful" when TSHTF? ;-)

I already have almost everything mentioned on this thread as would be useful in many bad scenarios. I have the land, water and sewer accomodations, productive beasts of burden, farm equipment, fuel, a generator, tons of equipment and the skills to make it all work. I wasn't even in panic mode when I got it but I realized immediately how advantageous it could be to help people if this worst recession becomes a terrible depression or if there was a catastrophe in town how we could support strangers up here too. You know "head for the hills".
On the other hand I am aware that if people get too rowdy it isn't easy to get here and I think I could bother myself to cooperate with my neighbors to establish a " peace keeping checkpoint"
If something happens in town and I can be of help, I'll go down and do that. Respecting self preservation to some degree of course.

All that said. I don't agree with the authority with which you speak regarding apparently relatively near term very broad "chaos" affecting Americans. Obviously I have questioned the value system that would lead you to classify most of the things as "chaos" that you have so far. Even if you are using them to demonstrate the shit is being piled up and the fan is being plugged in, I don't agree that the result will be a meeting or the two resulting in extreme Chaos. If war between relative equals breaks out, I will change that tune a second.

On the other hand many people in the world are already living the worst case scenario we could imagine. It is frustrating to to me,seems undisciplined, to wallow in anticipation of possible loss of luxury.This always becomes a demand on our politicians to look around for solutions. Yes, you could challenge as to what I am doing with regard to that. So far not much. I speak out against our unjust contributions and I would gladly accept poverty to reduce them if it would help.I will not support Obama or Mccain. One dissapointment coming from this blog is that many people seem ready to classify the Iraq war as a success or failure based on how it affects our standard or living. I am pretty much against bailing ourselves out with other people's blood.

What is your take on this last paragraph. I already know you don't like Obama or McCain.

Submitted by Allan from Fallbrook on October 30, 2008 - 10:39pm.

Rus: If the shit truly hits the fan (widespread civil unrest and breakdown), the authorities are screwed. I remember the LA riots in 1992 following the Rodney King verdict and the complete helplessness of the LAPD in handling the situation.

The police and National Guard are improperly trained and underequipped to handle anything widespread and, if the wheels really came off the wagon, you'd be on your own.

Not trying to get all "Mad Max" on you or anything, but you'd be better off hunkering down and waiting for some sort of order to re-assert itself. I remember when they evacuated Fallbrook during the fires last fall and it was chaos. They had the Marine Corps assisting the Sheriff's Dept. and CHP and it was a goat screw. Bear in mind, this was an ORDERLY evacuation, not a riot or civil unrest.

Submitted by NotCranky on October 30, 2008 - 11:09pm.

I don't doubt what you are saying Allan. I would heed your advice. Lots of strong bodies and weak minds in a mass of human beings 3 million strong(San Diego).However, I think we are better off than LA in that regard by a long shot.

Submitted by partypup on October 30, 2008 - 11:41pm.

"On the other hand many people in the world are already living the worst case scenario we could imagine. It is frustrating to to me,seems undisciplined, to wallow in anticipation of possible loss of luxury.This always becomes a demand on our politicians to look around for solutions. Yes, you could challenge as to what I am doing with regard to that. So far not much. I speak out against our unjust contributions and I would gladly accept poverty to reduce them if it would help.I will not support Obama or Mccain. One dissapointment coming from this blog is that many people seem ready to classify the Iraq war as a success or failure based on how it affects our standard or living. I am pretty much against bailing ourselves out with other people's blood.

What is your take on this last paragraph. I already know you don't like Obama or McCain."

So true, Rus. I despise both candidates and, like you will not be supporting either one. Somehow, given what's become of our political *system*, I think our Founding Fathers would agree with me. Sometimes the greatest action one can take is to simply not participate in or legitimize a thoroughly cancerous system.

I am deeply in envy of your foresight and preps, by the way.

With regard to your last paragraph, we are in agreement on this point. I am very much aware that the losses we, as Americans, are about to experience are nothing so much as the loss of luxury. But they are luxuries that many have grown accustomed to having, and I fear nothing is as dangerous as a soft, lazy, entitled urbanite (or suburbanite) who suddenly finds himself living like the other 98% of the world. This sense of entitlement frustrates me, and to some extent I believe that not only are we about to get what we deserve, but the *punishment* could serve us well in the long run. May make us sturdier folk. More resourceful folk. More determined, less whiny and harder-working folk. More introspective and less superficial folk. More compassionate folk. Folk with better priorities. What frustrates me is that whenever I voice my thoughts on this topic, I usually get the, "Stop, you're depressing me!" comment. "Can't we talk about something happier, like my new ringtone?"

As if we exist solely to experience non-stop fun, joy and happy thoughts? Is this the ethic embraced by those who built this country? Have any human beings in history lived the way we expect to live and continue to live? It's insane. We experienced a *blip* in history with bountiful, easily-accessed food, clean water, cheap vacations, cheap gas, toys and gadgets, etc. And you are right: our politicians have fed our gluttony, never once warning us that one day the feast would end. And even worse, these demons/candidates are now courting us like angels, even now pretending that the losses we invariably face can be avoided. And my great disappointment on this blog is that far too many people believe that these demons can help us avoid our fate.

You are right, we have lived far too long on the blood and sweat of others. Well, all that is about to come to and end. As for me, I'm not afraid of losing what I have. I've already begun to adjust my expectations and priorities. I do not fear living like the other 98% now. Year ago I may have, but not now. I'm not sure I gladly accept poverty, but I do understand and accept that a serious reduction in my standard of living is in order, and there's really nothing I can do about it. Except try to survive as best I can, nurture the relationships with those around me, enjoy the simpler things in life and slowly detach myself from the physical needs that I have grown accustomed to. Enorah has actually been extremely helpful in this regard. I am coming to terms with the possibility that our lives, in this country and on this planet, are about to get a lot more interesting and transformative in the next few years. For those who resist, the transformation will be painful. For those who let go and roll with whatever the universe provides, the transformation will be pretty amazing, I think.

Submitted by Arraya on October 31, 2008 - 1:31am.

All that said. I don't agree with the authority with which you speak regarding apparently relatively near term very broad "chaos" affecting Americans.

Rus, this is very different situation from any other time in history and chaos is a very accurate description of what most likely will occur. The mechanics of the way our financial/energy/food system intertwine will dictate this. We have converging crises intersecting coupled with sociopathic leadership that lead us down this unsustainable path to complete ruin. This is much bigger than a slightly high unemployment number and some people losing their retirement.

For some quantifications I suggest you watch this presentation. It is a good big picture view of the interdependency of energy and economics, which very very few have.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crash-course

Submitted by TheBreeze on October 31, 2008 - 8:06am.

Scaredy Cat

Submitted by Arraya on October 31, 2008 - 6:28pm.

TheBreeze

Submitted by Arraya on October 31, 2008 - 7:44pm.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081031/ap_o...

SACRAMENTO, Calif. – California said Thursday that it plans to cut water deliveries to their second-lowest level ever next year, raising the prospect of rationing for cities and less planting by farmers.

The Department of Water Resources projects that it will deliver just 15 percent of the amount that local water agencies throughout California request every year.

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com...

Thanks to the worsening economic situation the effects of declining oil production - much higher prices and shortages - look to be even closer and more severe than before the financial crisis emerged. Falling prices at the gas pumps are only a temporary distraction: the real troubles are getting closer all the time.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081110/gr...

The swindle of American taxpayers is proceeding more or less in broad daylight, as the unwitting voters are preoccupied with the national election. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson agreed to invest $125 billion in the nine largest banks, including $10 billion for Goldman Sachs, his old firm. But, if you look more closely at Paulson's transaction, the taxpayers were taken for a ride--a very expensive ride. They paid $125 billion for bank stock that a private investor could purchase for $62.5 billion. That means half of the public's money was a straight-out gift to Wall Street, for which taxpayers got nothing in return.

Submitted by cashflow on October 31, 2008 - 9:13pm.

arraya,
That is 3 hours!!! Fun Halloween night, well I guess if you wanna watch something spooky/scary....

Submitted by partypup on November 1, 2008 - 1:01am.

"The swindle of American taxpayers is proceeding more or less in broad daylight, as the unwitting voters are preoccupied with the national election. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson agreed to invest $125 billion in the nine largest banks, including $10 billion for Goldman Sachs, his old firm. But, if you look more closely at Paulson's transaction, the taxpayers were taken for a ride--a very expensive ride. They paid $125 billion for bank stock that a private investor could purchase for $62.5 billion. That means half of the public's money was a straight-out gift to Wall Street, for which taxpayers got nothing in return."

...And both of the crooks running for President voted for this swindle.

Change you can believe in! Country first!

Submitted by NotCranky on November 1, 2008 - 10:17am.

Party pup, Thanks for the props but most my preparations are really just a basic fact of living in agriculturally zoned property and being a contractor with a passion for gardening.It scares my wife but I would like to do a sustainability excercise for the fun of it. Good thing we have become competent at compromise.

Fact Check on what Rustico said. That I have productive beasts of burden is kind of an exaggeration. I have two egg laying chickens and a rooster named Temeculaguy. These beasts could potentially produce animals for meat and replacements egg layers. I also have three boys who I wouldn't hesitate to turn into farm hands.I could easily bring in livestock though.

I did sell one house during the famous FB period. I was pressured into it by the buyers themselves and I told them flat out not to do it.

I think Enorah has already mostly triumphed over what ever is coming. I can sense that from her posts.

I don't think we can become like the other 98% of the world becasue there is not a uniform 98% out there anywhere. What is the population distribution for people living in "developed" vs. non developed countries for instance?

I think you hit on what may be the biggest change for Americans, which is a reduction of comfort and ease of access to excess, in almost all things and on the other hand constant employment to enable the getting and spending and covering of the debts incurred and/or the accumulation of great quantities of wealth that we cant take with us when we go.I know a lot of people are charitable and that I only paint the bad side of our ant farm ways here.
Anyway,there may be catastrophic occurrences that just obliterate some of us and only luck will make a difference.Some of us are going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. We can only be reasonable prudent and ready to respond but eventually we might have to accept that It is "a good day to die".Anticipating every frightful possibility is a waste of time and probably dangerous. Tennis anyone?

Other than the possibility or radical warfare which I am adamantly against, but which also usually passes,I think, the worse case scenario is that many of us temporarily or permanently face living standards and access to opportunity that gradually becomes more on par with Mexico.Maybe this occurs over generations. Like you also said, maybe some good would come out of that. There are a lot of intelligent people with not much opportunity in the world, who have to get by with less success on the career ladder less gross consumption and the prestige many of us pretend that it brings, but they do O.K. other wise. In some ways they set good examples for how much the same some of the best things in life would be.

Submitted by Enorah on November 1, 2008 - 12:13pm.

Rustico, I feel as prepared as I can be spiritually, mentally, & emotionally, and my partner is as well. Physically, he and I may not appear to be as prepared as you and some of the others on this thread.

However, we have learned to be in the moment and how to manifest what we need in the moment, so in that respect, we are physically prepared.

Rustico, this quote by you resonated very strongly with me and I feel it deserves being repeated

Quote:
However, realizing that each of us is endowed differently to handle calamity, I think it would be wise to consider sharing and helping fellow citizens.

Submitted by Arraya on November 1, 2008 - 3:36pm.

Anyway,there may be catastrophic occurrences that just obliterate some of us and only luck will make a difference.Some of us are going to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. We can only be reasonable prudent and ready to respond but eventually we might have to accept that It is "a good day to die".Anticipating every frightful possibility is a waste of time and probably dangerous.

This is not looking into a magic 8 ball and seeing if there will be a nuclear war or not, certain outcomes like this are non-deterministic, and foolish to ponder. In a dissipative system in which we live certain outcomes are very deterministic, whether you chose to classify them as catastrophic is up to you. it's just the physics of the situation, the structure of our systems in which support life and their inherent shortcomings under calculate-able stresses

Within no uncertain terms these conditions will worsen without AWARENESS of these deterministic outcomes and catastrophe will be MORE likely.

However, I will agree with Enorah that emotional preparedness is equally or more important than physical in the transformation the world will undergo in the very near future, though, I do not agree that we can manifest a sandwich if hungry. Until we transcend into another dimension where the laws of thermodynamics do not exist we have to understand this.

Furthermore is you want to alleviate these stresses grow you own food and use as little of petroleum as possible. If everybody did this that could, food security would not be as big an issue.

Also, I will second the props for this quote.

Quote:
However, realizing that each of us is endowed differently to handle calamity, I think it would be wise to consider sharing and helping fellow citizens.

We are truly entering a time where kindness, sharing and compassion are keys to a humane society as well as awareness of the world in which we live.

"A human being is a part of a whole, called by us 'universe', a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings as something separated from the rest... a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and to affection for a few persons nearest to us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole of nature in its beauty."

Albert Einstein

"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit if may cost I am willing to know the whole truth, to know the worst and provide for it"

Patrick Henry

Submitted by Enorah on November 1, 2008 - 7:52pm.

arraya, from my understanding of it all, we are already transiting through the fourth dimension, actually moving back and forth between the upper frequencies of the third and middle frequencies of the fourth,(again from my understand, the 4th dimension is where time no longer appears to be linear, it becomes malleable, and we come to understand that all is now, the moment is all there is). This seems to be one of the reasons so many feel disoriented right now and "out of synch".

We are on our way to the 5th where we will be able to manifest that sandwich at will (of course we will not need food in the 5th like we do here, food in the 5th will be a choice for enjoyment or informational purposes only).

Submitted by NotCranky on November 2, 2008 - 1:02am.

Arraya,

I appreciate the nice comments, now the rebuttal ;)

I didn't look into the Martenson site well enough to know what he is selling but the site appears to me to be an excellent example of "hype sells".

His gratuitous choice to call his offering "The Crash Course" (crashes are scary) ,the focus on scary news in red font and overuse of adrenaline inciting adjectives, turns me off. It is not about not being aware, it is about not being abused.

You followed up the posting on that site with three news stories. I take it that these three articles further your effort to have others believe, that there is confirmation enough that it's different this time and dramatically so.

I choose to investigate the water story link to see how much weight this brings to the "chaos is imminent" argument.

I do have some insight into this topic. I have lived through water rationing in California, My father in law is a geologist specializing in hydrology. I have made a inquiries into the topic over the years. Most recently I read "Beyond Chinatown": The Metropolitan Water district, Growth, and the Environment in Southern California.

The fact that that The Department of Water Resources projects that it will deliver just 15% of the amount that southern California's regional water agencies throughout California request every year is not a really big deal on the level of the individual.

Last year the initial Allocation was just 25% and was subsequently raised to 35%. In recent years San Diego has received approximately 30% of its water from the state water supply.Just to be clear The reduction from the SWP is not to 15% of what San Diego consumes but 15% of an allocation from one water agency that never actually been delivered in excess of 50% of the prescribed allotment.We get most of the rest of our water from the Colorado river aqueduct and if I recall properly, a few years back we had some favorable outcomes with regard to contracts for capacity.

Furthermore this, as is usual with water in California, is as much about political arm wrestling as anything.I am not saying that the actions taken are not at all a result of supplies but that is never all of the story. This current case involves the Governors push for more water infrastructure, which is being resisted by those who influence the state purse and environmentalist concerns and probably a host of others.I am not sure exactly what the implications are but don't doubt power struggles are involved.

We use way too much water or at least way more than we need and we are going to do it in 2009 even with this proposed reduction. We could get by with less. Permanent modifications could even be easily manageable.Look at per capita water consumption in most of the world.

I don't know if you were here but we had water rationing at least once in the eighties.It wasn't a symptom or precursor of "chaos" then and based on this current situation isn't now. Adjustments are being made constantly to many situations. Calfornia water,food supplies, energy all these going concerns go through and will go through plenty or changes and most of the time is without tremendous duress.

When people make fun of "doomsayers" in an apparently knee jerk fashion it is because we have seen it before and know that the topics can be dealt with rationally and as someone pointed out the "alarmist" crowd has a bad track record.

Obviously many of your contributions are not debunkable. I am not saying that at all. I thought you were great on many threads. I think this argument about imminent "chaos" is indefensible.Risk factors may be a little more fluid.Some situations are more intense. Lots of people are going through painful changes and are frightened. There is definitely room for improvement on many of the concerns you raise.

In any case, I am ready to respectfully agree to disagree on "chaos" .

Submitted by jpinpb on March 30, 2009 - 4:16pm.

First - apologize for digging up this long thread.

This is mainly for arraya.

A friend emailed me a link to a site that somewhat explains the coffins:

Morgan County

Submitted by Allan from Fallbrook on March 30, 2009 - 4:47pm.

Jp: Damn! So I bought that bazooka and 15,000 rounds of ammo for nothing?!?

Submitted by jpinpb on March 30, 2009 - 5:15pm.

15k!!! Holy Crap! No wonder I can't find any. You got them all!

Submitted by NotCranky on March 30, 2009 - 5:21pm.

Sept 17,2008 Three weeks to Chaos....Those were the good old days indeed.

Theme music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5pkkAhETYg

Submitted by nostradamus on March 30, 2009 - 6:06pm.

Allan from Fallbrook wrote:
Jp: Damn! So I bought that bazooka and 15,000 rounds of ammo for nothing?!?

What good would those do against biological agents anyway??? That was one of the theories floating around the coffins. Does anyone own a bio-hazard suit and mask? I think you'd look cooler holding a bazooka while wearing this.

Submitted by jpinpb on March 30, 2009 - 6:09pm.

Great. Good point. Now I've gotta try to hunt for a bio suit.

Submitted by nostradamus on March 30, 2009 - 6:41pm.

What we really need is a bullet-proof bio-hazard suit with night vision, a shotgun to handle undead zombies, unlimited ammo, a case of top ramen, and a machete, all made of gold. It would be nice to pack all of these things into a boat in case there is a flood, and it would be really nice if the boat was space-worthy in case the magnetic shift of 2012 destroys all of earth. You never know what might happen.

Submitted by jpinpb on March 30, 2009 - 6:43pm.

That's why I love this blog. nostradamus, you think of everything! We're covered now.

Submitted by KSMountain on March 30, 2009 - 10:58pm.

A proposition for partypup or arraya.

Given that the ATMs are still working (thank god) I have a proposition for partypup or arraya or anyone else that thinks that Road Warrior time is imminent.

On December 1, 2009 I will sell 5 delicious lifegiving gallons of water to anyone for $100 in useless U.S. currency.

Further, for the big players, I will trade 1 oz. in gold bullion .999 pure, for $5000 in worthless paper U.S. currency.

Anyone want to take me up on it?

Now, in the event that there no longer is an internet or electricity, we better set up a meeting place now! How about the
Encinitas Lumberyard Starbuck's? If the whole place has been burned to the ground by marauding gangs of starving malcontents, then we can just meet at the location the Starbuck's USED to be.

After we do the deal, with my profits, I'll be happy to buy you a coffee, and then we can head over to Bubby's and get some gelato too. IMO, both places (and a lot more) will STILL be there alive and well on Dec. 1.

Submitted by temeculaguy on March 30, 2009 - 11:11pm.

Now you are starting to sound like me. However, despite my predictions that we will never get to the Road Warrior phase, that we may well be in what we will look back as the worst of times, I have a bio suit and weapons and food and water. Not because I like to hedge my bets, which I do, but because if the apocolypse does come, those things will get chicks. Lots of them, so much so that I already have my lines prepared. "I've been vaccinated against anthrax, my body fluids are the antidote" is my favorite so far.

Submitted by ralphfurley on March 31, 2009 - 12:03am.

nostradamus wrote:
What we really need is a bullet-proof bio-hazard suit with night vision, a shotgun to handle undead zombies, unlimited ammo, a case of top ramen, and a machete, all made of gold. It would be nice to pack all of these things into a boat in case there is a flood, and it would be really nice if the boat was space-worthy in case the magnetic shift of 2012 destroys all of earth. You never know what might happen.

Funny clip. Kept getting better and better. I enjoyed the sushi part. :)

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