OT: Countdown: Three Weeks to Chaos

User Forum Topic
Submitted by partypup on September 17, 2008 - 10:37pm

I know that I have been characterized as "alarmist" and a "doomsayer" by many on this board in the past, but I would be remiss if I did not pass along some information to you all that I have learned from a very knowledgeable and well-placed source in the finance industry who has guided me for the past two years as I have attempted to navigate this crisis.

This source predicted, four (4) months ago, that the market would enter a heart-pounding phase in mid-late September. It would be as though, in his words, "the world would hold its breath" in anticipation of what would follow.

And then, on or about the first week of October, the dam would suddenly burst and the ride to hell would begin -- for months. He predicted that the system would experience a massive seizure, such that all electronic forms of trade (stocks, banks, ATMS) would simply fail. And the much-delayed death of the dollar would begin in earnest.

This coincides almost exactly with what the think tank at LEAP (http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-in-English_r25.html) has been predicting for the past 18 months. I have studied each of their reports, in which they have consistently labeled Fall 2008 as the point in which the world in general, and the U.S. in particular, would enter the heart of the system crisis. The only variation I note is that LEAP estimates that the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency will cease around the end of the 2nd quarter of 2009. My source believes that it will happen sooner. Or perhaps it is the case that the process begins in October and culminates in June. In any event,
the Fall and Winter are going to be extraordinarily brutal.

I am hoping that all who read this will understand the message that I am trying to relay to you: time is short. Many of us have been expecting what is coming from months or years. Some have only awaken to what is coming a few months ago. Others still don't understand what is coming. But as Wall St literally disintegrates before our eyes, I don't think there can be any question at this point that we are on the verge of something unprecedented and catastrophic.

If you have money in the markets, you need to get it out NOW.

If you have a 401K and are fearful of a withdrawal penalty and taxes, keep in mind that 60% of something is better than 100% of nothing.

If you have more funds in your bank than the absolute minimum necessary to pay your expenses, then you're playing Vegas odds. FDIC is technically insolvent as I write this, and one more major bank failure will trigger an unstoppable run on our retail banking system.

Buy a safe. Keep as much cash at home as you feel comfortable storing. BUY METALS. They will be volatile in the near term, but they are truly your best bet for asset protection in a world that is about to implode in a derivatives supernova.

The Chinese did something astounding today: they effectively broadcast to the world that a new world reserve currency is needed. The world heard them. And gold soared almost $100 today. I think that any thinking person can see that the unthinkable is now about to happen. The dollar is about to become irrelevant.

http://us.mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/An...

And lastly, at the risk of sounding completely alarmist, I would advise you all to begin stocking up on goods that you will need to keep your household functioning in the near (and possibly long) term. When the system fails, there will be massive supply disruptions for a variety of reasons, not the least of which will be that panic will trigger a hoarding mentality, gas will be in short supply and inventories will be easily wiped off of store shelves. Can we buy enough food and supplies to last the rest of our lives? Of course not. The goal here is simply not to be a casualty in the first wave of the tsunami that will wipe out millions. Once the first wave has passed, we can pick ourselves up, look around for a place of safety and start moving.

I'm not advising anyone to buy a gun or any form of protection, although I think civil unrest is entirely possible, particularly in large metropolitan areas.

I am simply advising that, at a minimum, we all be prudent in preparing for what now seems inevitable. An ounce of prevention in these times is easily worth a ton of cure.

For those who may disagree with my post, I respect your opinion and would only ask that you not denigrate mine and simply move on to the next thread. I share this information with you all solely out of a concern for my fellow citizens.

I am hoping this thread will allow like-minded individuals to share practical information and advice as we all move into a grim and unchartered period in our nation's history.

Good luck to us all.

Submitted by partypup on October 28, 2008 - 6:56pm.

And more *chaos*:

"More Car Dealers Shut Down -
Auto Sellers Turn Off Lights as Sales Slump, Credit Tightens"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12251531...

"IMF may need to "print money" as crisis spreads"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comme...

"As talks between General Motors Corp. and long-time rival Chrysler LLC continued over the weekend, a harsh reality has emerged: Without a merger and possibly an assist from the federal government, two of Detroit's Big Three auto makers could run out of cash within a year."

http://press.leasetrader.com/archive/200...

"Russia begins to refuse credit cards in worsening global financial crisis" (Don't think this can't and won't happen in the U.S.; this is only a preview of coming attractions)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finan...

Submitted by Enorah on October 28, 2008 - 6:59pm.
Submitted by partypup on October 28, 2008 - 7:09pm.

*Wow*. This is amazing, Enorah! Thank you so much for the link. Listening now and quite enjoying it.

Submitted by Enorah on October 28, 2008 - 7:12pm.

happy to hear

:)

Submitted by nostradamus on October 29, 2008 - 10:13am.

partypup wrote:
Make no mistake: this thing isn't coming at us all at once; like a tsunami, it is coming in waves. The question is, when the next wave hits will you be de-sensitized?
I think being de-sensitized is not so bad once you've prepared yourself. Being hyper-sensitized and in a state of panic is what does the real damage.
partypup wrote:
Or will you take notice and act accordingly and prepare yourself?
I'm prepared. I have a fishing pole, a water purifier, a book on edible plants, and a peace maker. Everything else is extra. I'll trade with you but not for paper or pretty metal... ;)
partypup wrote:
The old adage goes, "Put a frog in boiling water, and he'll jump out to save his life.
Out of the frying pan, into the fire.
partypup wrote:
Don't be the frog who gets used to the heat, my friend.
And remember, panic kills. Nothing to do with banking will kill me and I don't need it to live. I've experimented with living off the land and it works so bring it, yee-haw!

All the things that got me ahead of the curve are inside my head, not inside my bank account. If we all start from ground zero I'll end up ahead again.

Submitted by Arraya on October 29, 2008 - 1:51pm.

I think being de-sensitized is not so bad once you've prepared yourself. Being hyper-sensitized and in a state of panic is what does the real damage.

Well, jeez, Nos. You assertion the partypup is advocating panic is ridiculous. If you feel that way from reading this thread maybe you should re-examine your own life. This is the old "I'm not going to live in fear" thing I hear so frequently.

Like… um… wouldn’t the only reason to actually “live in fear” be if there were something in our lives that was ongoingly frightening and threatening? And… I’m embarrassed to have to write this… if there’s something ongoingly frightening and threatening in our lives, don’t we actually want to know about it, discuss it and maybe, the gods forbid, respond? Isn’t that what fear is for? And this thread for that matter.

This is like watching a slow moving ever morphing category 5 hurricane making landfall that nobody but a few people are watching. Constant updates and honest discussion are needed.

Maybe you are well prepared and that's great but many people are not. So if you really feel this thread is detrimental to you mental health which you have alluded, go back to your de-sensitized bubble and pretend everything will blow over.

However, when we begin to look closely at the situation in it's totality, it becomes very clear, very quickly, that de-sensitizing and wishin' and hopin' are about to go the way of the Yangtze River Dolphin in terms of effective life strategies. Which is where most Americans dwell.

Submitted by NotCranky on October 29, 2008 - 1:20pm.

partypup wrote:
"It has been 5 weeks since
'Three Weeks to Chaos" has been posted. Can someone describe what the chaos looks like. Everyday seems quite normal.

Is it the 401k thing?"

Yah, it's the 401(k) thing (or rather, the 201(k) thing). It's also the pension crash thing; it's the wildly-gyrating market crash thing; it's the hedge fund crash thing; it's the intensifying housing crash thing (am I the only one seeing open houses in the middle of the week now?); it's the countries-like-Iceland-going-bankrupt thing; it's the credit seizing thing; it's the commercial paper crash thing; it's the employment crash thing; oh, and it's also the student loan crash thing.

Now, does all that feel like chaos to you? I suppose chaos feels like different things to different people. And I suspect that those of us living in Southern California are experiencing (for the moment) a different slice of reality than those in the Rust Belt, or Detroit, or Manteca. I doubt very seriously that days continue to feel normal for folks in those parts.

The first week of October was the first time the shills openly admitted that we weren't in Kansas anymore. The world acknowledged that the market is *crashing* -- not in one day, but in slow motion. The world shifted entirely three weeks ago.

People now seem to be adjusting to the *new normal*, i.e. wild 500 point swings in the market, trillion dollar bailouts, tens of billions injected on a daily basis. So perhaps things still seem *normal* to you. But if that's the case, then you are not noticing the seismic movements beneath your feet.

Make no mistake: this thing isn't coming at us all at once; like a tsunami, it is coming in waves.

The question is, when the next wave hits will you be de-sensitized? Or will you take notice and act accordingly and prepare yourself?

The old adage goes, "Put a frog in boiling water, and he'll jump out to save his life. But put him in water and gradually turn up the heat, and he'll die before he knows it."

Don't be the frog who gets used to the heat, my friend.

Thank you,
Most of things you mention interfere with comfort and prestige, perhaps, but pose no real threat to anything of value. I am surprised you didn't include recent events in the Congo or along the Pakistan border in your list of evidence of actual and imminent Chaos.

"Chaos in the midst of chaos isn't funny, but chaos in the midst of order is."

Steve Martin,

Submitted by Coronita on October 29, 2008 - 2:38pm.

partypup wrote:
'BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said."

This is huge, IMO. A, what do you think the chances are that dollar dumping (the kind that would devalue it by 50% or more) could occur in panic mode over a period of weeks, rather than a long, slow dumping over a period of months or years?

First off, being out here China right now, a few things..... You have to realize a state run paper typically publishes things like this more out of an PR thing about China's economy right now relative to everyone else... The press was along the lines of the Euro-Asian Economic summit that was held over that weekend in Beijing, which focused on China's economy and it's relation to the rest of the world. (Interestingly, last year European nations were pretty vocal about criticism toward China during the meeting...This time, being that most of those nation's economy are up a creak, they pretty much just shut up and listened...)
I would venture to say that this is rather more of an editorial comment rather than an official government policy (in the short term at least)

In the short term/middle term, the world economy is too intertwined with U.S. consumers to severe ties with USD or the US economy right now. What the US brings to the table is a pool of consumers that often spend $2 for every $1 they have, and there is no other pool of consumers in the rest of the world that can substitute that in the short term.

Second, one thing that came out of the euro/asia economic meeting is that China is attempting to establish a more diverse consumer base among other nations and domestically, to mitigate a dependency on one set of consumer basis in the future. BUT, this is going to be a long, gradual transition. It consists of a two prong approach.

It described during this summit meeting that china's short term economic strategy is to use is huge capital reserves to raise the living of the more rural/peasant population. The plan calls for GDP growth during this global economic crisis through work/jobs in building out domestic infrastructure in the rural areas, and to raise the standard of living for those areas. Apparently, the strategy is to turn China's large population into a large consumer base over time, such that internal consumption can drive a good portion of China's economy, along with consumption from europe and asia.

In the short/middle term though, China, rest of Asia, and Europe knows they are heavily dependent on US consumers to power their own economy.. They any drastic measure from such nations (such as dumping US treasuries, or a rejection of the USD) is only going to be self-defeating in the short/mid term.

Folks that routinely do business with the US (directly/indirectly) realize this. For example, a few friends that I'm meeting here that run export businesses are getting hit, not necessarily with reduced consumption by US, but also in Taiwan, Europe, and other parts of Asia. It's an intertwined food chain, and goes like this. Business X in China that sells to consumers/businesses Y in Taiwan are seeing slowdowns because Taiwan business Y that sold to a much larger business/consumer base in the US had to cut back. Hence the domino effect of a pyramid with the US at the bottom of the pyramid (ironic, isn't it?). Despite the rest of the world wanting to be less dependent on US, there currently is no other larger consumer base than US.

In sort of the world stage, the analogy is between drug dealers and junkies. U.S. consumers are junkies for the drug dealers of the world. The dealers can't really say they don't need the junkies. And if they want to get rid of their current junkies, they'll need to find junkies elsewhere that are more inclined to pay them the same for their stuff. Currently, there is no larger population of junkies than ours...

Now if China over the next decade is able to provide that huge consumer base from it's now peasant/rural class, then that's a considerable different game, purely just on the fact of China's enormous population and market opportunity for commerce.
BUT, even so, it remains to be seen if China's population can match the consumption levels of U.S. consumers in a decade+. Culturally, this may be a challenge, because culturally, concepts such as buying things on "credit" and "having bad(non-investment based) debt" is the antithesis of tradition. It's gonna be hard to get folks to starting thinking in terms of "layaway" or "buy now, pay later"....But that remains to be seen.

----

Tongue and cheek, I was thinking a short term fix would be for the European and Asian nations to pool together a $1 trillion economic stimulus package and give it to the U.S. consumers directly.

Because, when it's all said and done, most likely, they'll get close to $1.5 trillion worth back from our consumption, since overall, we'll probably spend more than we get. Then when the effects wear off, they should then take that $1.5 trillion they get back, and put it into next year's economic stimulus package for U.S. consumers. By the end of next year, we'll have sent $2 trillion back post consumption.

To fund this bailout, they could even package the bailout package as a "high grade investment bond" and sell it to our pension and 401k plans :)

Submitted by sd_bear on October 29, 2008 - 2:46pm.

partypup wrote:
"I guess that means I should stop contributing to my retirement.

Also, does this apply to my dog as well? Or should I leave a lot of food and water out for him when I make the transition and leave him behind?"

If you are still on the fence about continuing to contribute to your *retirement*, in the face of all that is going on around us, then my guess is that your dog is much more equipped to make the transition than you are.

You may very well be the one who is left behind.

I can still contribute without putting it into stocks. As I stopped doing long ago.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 29, 2008 - 8:30pm.

arraya wrote:
Well, jeez, Nos. You assertion the partypup is advocating panic is ridiculous. If you feel that way from reading this thread maybe you should re-examine your own life. This is the old "I'm not going to live in fear" thing I hear so frequently.

Like… um… wouldn’t the only reason to actually “live in fear” be if there were something in our lives that was ongoingly frightening and threatening?

No offense, but have you been drinking this evening? I didn't say anything about living in fear, but you had a whole conversation with yourself about it.
arraya wrote:
This is like watching a slow moving ever morphing category 5 hurricane making landfall that nobody but a few people are watching. Constant updates and honest discussion are needed.

Maybe you are well prepared and that's great but many people are not. So if you really feel this thread is detrimental to you mental health which you have alluded, go back to your de-sensitized bubble and pretend everything will blow over.

Like... uhm... did I mention or even allude detrimental to mental health? Again it's the wine talking I think.

arraya wrote:
However, when we begin to look closely at the situation in it's totality, it becomes very clear, very quickly, that de-sensitizing and wishin' and hopin' are about to go the way of the Yangtze River Dolphin in terms of effective life strategies. Which is where most Americans dwell.

I'm sure in 2004 there were many REAs who could convince people that they had better be prepared to "act now or be priced out forever". Look where that got us.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have healthy discussions but I do find these threads to be quite alarmist and many times wrong. I can say "something really really bad is going to happen tomorrow..." and then the day after tomorrow add "...in Somalia". What's going to happen with the economy is anyone's guess. I have "insiders" as well but wouldn't etch their words in stone.

If you're alarmed, scared, or anything more than entertained about what you're reading on a blog, you are the one who needs to re-assess your life.

arraya wrote:
I’m embarrassed to have to write this… if there’s something ongoingly frightening and threatening in our lives, don’t we actually want to know about it, discuss it and maybe, the gods forbid, respond? Isn’t that what fear is for? And this thread for that matter.
I too would be embarrassed if I wrote that. Uh-oh, something scary is threatening me... better run to the BLOG for help!

Anyway, I'm not trying to derail the panic train so go on with it if you like. Sell your stocks, liquidate your assets, buy into gold, hurry hurry hurry.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 29, 2008 - 8:38pm.

fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:

In the short term/middle term, the world economy is too intertwined with U.S. consumers to severe ties with USD or the US economy right now. What the US brings to the table is a pool of consumers that often spend $2 for every $1 they have, and there is no other pool of consumers in the rest of the world that can substitute that in the short term.
Funny I was listening to NPR and you're right: they will never find a consumer group as big as ours that spends more than it earns; however, they said Americans spend $1.27 for every dollar earned while Brits spend $1.65 for every dollar earned... It will be interesting to see how things pan out in England.

Submitted by Arraya on October 29, 2008 - 9:24pm.

No offense, but have you been drinking this evening? I didn't say anything about living in fear, but you had a whole conversation with yourself about it.

You said "de-sensitize". Well maybe I don't know what that means.

Let's see sensitive means

(1): easily hurt or damaged ; especially : easily hurt emotionally

So what would de-sensitize mean. I took it as withdrawing from information that disturbs or scares. So in essence what you said was "not being scared" Am I wrong?

If you're alarmed, scared, or anything more than entertained about what you're reading on a blog, you are the one who needs to re-assess your life.

HAHA..I'm not the one that wants to be de-sensitized. On another level, where do you get your information about economics, government etc... MSNBC, NYT, CNN? Come on you're here, that pretty says what your faith level is in the 4th estate.

So are you saying that there is nothing to be alarmed or cause need for a change of plans or anything that would affect your life on the internet? Interesting.

I too would be embarrassed if I wrote that. Uh-oh, something scary is threatening me... better run to the BLOG for help!

OK, this makes no sense. I go to the internet for information, information that has served me well and think sharing information with people can benefit their lives and sometimes that information is disturbing but awareness is key IMO.

Anyway, I'm not trying to derail the panic train so go on with it if you like. Sell your stocks, liquidate your assets, buy into gold, hurry hurry hurry.

I already made preparations and watching the storm waiting to dump my dollars at the right time before the world dumps it sometime next year.

Admittedly I'm not a savvy trader or a guru in economics but I have a pretty good big picture of things. I Forest Gumped may way into some bubble money from California RE and bailed at the right time because I found this site. Have to say, what I learned on here was alarming and I adjusted my life and it worked out pretty well. Hmmm, being alarmed helped me. From there I found peak oil and all the great blogs that cover that subject. So back in 06 when I knew energy was going through the roof before the whole economy would explode in flames I bought some energy stocks and gold. That worked out pretty well too. Also, I dumped oil about a week from the top because I paid close attention by reading blogs. So you might say I have become quite found of the internet.

But your right I'm sure there is nothing of value on here for you. Nothing to be alarmed about. Just a bunch of sick fearmongerers out there scaring people because that need attention and get off on it.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 29, 2008 - 10:17pm.

arraya wrote:
So what would de-sensitize mean. I took it as withdrawing from information that disturbs or scares. So in essence what you said was "not being scared" Am I wrong?
Yes, wrong on both counts. I didn't mean you should withdraw from info nor did I intend to say you should not be scared (although I don't think you should be). What I meant was, don't act rashly. Be calm.
arraya wrote:
HAHA..I'm not the one that wants to be de-sensitized. On another level, where do you get your information about economics, government etc... MSNBC, NYT, CNN? Come on you're here, that pretty says what your faith level is in the 4th estate.
Not so sure I understand what you're saying here, but I think you're wrong again. I don't read any of those news sites. There are 18 news sources (many outside America) in my bookmark tab called "daily". Piggington is one of them because I like to read all the angles: from the most bearish to the most bullish.
arraya wrote:
So are you saying that there is nothing to be alarmed or cause need for a change of plans or anything that would affect your life on the internet? Interesting.
Nope, never said that. On the contrary, I think the internet is one of the most powerful and useful tools ever invented.
arraya wrote:
I already made preparations and watching the storm waiting to dump my dollars at the right time before the world dumps it sometime next year.
That's great! What preparations did you make, and where will you be dumping your dollars?
arraya wrote:
Admittedly I'm not a savvy trader or a guru in economics but I have a pretty good big picture of things. I Forest Gumped may way into some bubble money from California RE and bailed at the right time because I found this site. Have to say, what I learned on here was alarming and I adjusted my life and it worked out pretty well. Hmmm, being alarmed helped me. From there I found peak oil and all the great blogs that cover that subject. So back in 06 when I knew energy was going through the roof before the whole economy would explode in flames I bought some energy stocks and gold. That worked out pretty well too. Also, I dumped oil about a week from the top because I paid close attention by reading blogs. So you might say I have become quite found of the internet.
I'm happy to hear that. I did read a lot of great info here and enjoy reading your posts as well as those of partypup and others. It's nice to get a feel for things.
arraya wrote:
But your right I'm sure there is nothing of value on here for you. Nothing to be alarmed about. Just a bunch of sick fearmongerers out there scaring people because that need attention and get off on it.
I never made any assertions about motives for posting... I don't even know why I'm posting!

Submitted by Arraya on October 30, 2008 - 12:20am.

Nos-I apologize, caught a hint of something, extrapolated a lot more and went off on a tangent. If that makes any sense.

Cheers...

Also, WTF are we doing in Syria...

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East...

Why Syria? Why now?
By Ali Gharib

WASHINGTON - A cross-border raid into Syria by United States forces in Iraq, and a subsequent stonewalling by US officials unwilling to divulge details, has led to rampant speculation among US analysts about the origins and meaning of the attack.

"So the question is: Why?", geostrategic analyst and journalist Helena Cobban wrote on her blog, wondering if the raid could have been pulled off without explicit permission from the highest levels of the President George W Bush administration.

Submitted by CA renter on October 30, 2008 - 1:11am.

Just to add some more fun stuff to this topic, a couple of updates. We know a number of people in "emergency services" in California. Over the years, I've asked that they report any unusual trends, espeically as it might relate to war or some type of civil "event" in the U.S. In particular, would like to know about hazardous material drills, changes in crowd control, big shifts in standard operating procedures as it relates to how emergency service workers handle certain types of situations, etc. Recently, there are some interesting developments that might be worth sharing here:

1. They have been ramping up the "mass casualty incident" drills; having them maybe 3-5 times more often than usual this past year. These are the drills where they enact a scene from various accidents, often dealing with hazardous materials, containment, crowd control, patient triage, etc. In addition to having more of these, they seem to be focusing on contamination issues.

2. The "triage tags" have been changed, and now there is a default for "contaminated" that needs to be ripped off the tag if someone is NOT contaminated. IOW, the tags assume all patients are "contaminated" until they are cleared.

wiki on triage tags:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage_tag

3. They are having the largest-ever, statewide "earthquake" drill in November. This may be totally benign and truly related to earthquakes; then again, it may not. They emphasize what things will be like **after** the quake, and how emergency service workers will be stretched thin, and people will be "on their own". They are stressing earthquake preparedness, including adequate supply of water, food, medical supplies, etc.

http://www.shakeout.org/

Just throwing this out there. Along with those coffins (previous thread with youtube in Georgia?) and all, it's just "interesting".

Submitted by nostradamus on October 30, 2008 - 9:38am.

Interesting. Nothing would surprise me. I wonder what kinds of things we would be contaminated with. Biological contaminants or (yikes) radioactive?

Isn't one of our posters (lindismith?) in the production of body bags? Are sales increasing?

Also interesting to note that while most retail sales are down, gun sales are up. I was in the discount gun mart (on Morena) and they were packed. The owner told me he's never seen it like this!

Submitted by gandalf on October 30, 2008 - 3:18pm.

Yeah, I went to the range last week and the retail area was packed, middle of the day.

Submitted by partypup on October 30, 2008 - 3:28pm.

Indeed, you do sound extremely prepared, Nost. I tip my hat to you. The pretty metals are not meant to be held indefinitely; only to be used to accumulate *real* things like a productive farm or acreage for bargain prices when the currency collapses. There will most definitely come a time when even metal will become valueless.

BTW, what's a "peace maker"? A gun? ;-)

Submitted by partypup on October 30, 2008 - 3:40pm.

Yes, I've been reading a lot about this, too. Between the fear of an Obama win (gun control goes wild), the fear of an Obama loss (irrational fear of riots and unrest), and the economy melting down uncontrollably, it looks as though guns and ammo may soon provide the best return on investment ;-)

Submitted by NotCranky on October 30, 2008 - 4:17pm.

In hard times I'll take family jewels vs. precious metals anyday. I think Nostradamus alluded to that.However, realizing that each of us is endowed differently to handle calamity, I think it would be wise to consider sharing and helping fellow citizens. Correct me if I am wrong but I hear a lot of ,me, me, me.Greed actually...I am going to capitalize by dumping dollars, I am going to steal land for my shiny stuff. What does that have to do with a catastrophe? That is what scares me the most. The idea goes through my head that the ones most obsessing about hypothetical Helter skelter scenarios are going to be the least useful to anyone when it happens.

Submitted by CardiffBaseball on October 30, 2008 - 4:23pm.

Ben Jones' blog participants have been advocating stocking up on ammo for quite some time. The reasoning over there was if there was some kind of depression, that crime might rise and one might have to really protect basic necessities.

Submitted by Enorah on October 30, 2008 - 4:26pm.

Rustico wrote:
However, realizing that each of us is endowed differently to handle calamity, I think it would be wise to consider sharing and helping fellow citizens.

:)

This is going to be the only way through.

Submitted by Arraya on October 30, 2008 - 5:46pm.

Rustico wrote:
In hard times I'll take family jewels vs. precious metals anyday. I think Nostradamus alluded to that.However, realizing that each of us is endowed differently to handle calamity, I think it would be wise to consider sharing and helping fellow citizens. Correct me if I am wrong but I hear a lot of ,me, me, me.Greed actually...I am going to capitalize by dumping dollars, I am going to steal land for my shiny stuff. What does that have to do with a catastrophe? That is what scares me the most. The idea goes through my head that the ones most obsessing about hypothetical Helter skelter scenarios are going to be the least useful to anyone when it happens.

Rus, you are correct. Self interest which is pretty much the driver of our civilization will be the death of it as well. This thread is not about profiting from destruction, it's about survival and hopefully helping others survive. As in an airplane crash you must first put on your oxygen mask before putting it on anybody else. Unfortunately not many people believe the plane is crashing and won't until it's a smoldering wreck.

Then when you tell the people the airplane is crashing, they shun you and call you crazy.

Submitted by Coronita on October 30, 2008 - 4:54pm.

nostradamus wrote:
fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:

In the short term/middle term, the world economy is too intertwined with U.S. consumers to severe ties with USD or the US economy right now. What the US brings to the table is a pool of consumers that often spend $2 for every $1 they have, and there is no other pool of consumers in the rest of the world that can substitute that in the short term.
Funny I was listening to NPR and you're right: they will never find a consumer group as big as ours that spends more than it earns; however, they said Americans spend $1.27 for every dollar earned while Brits spend $1.65 for every dollar earned... It will be interesting to see how things pan out in England.

Interesting, I never knew that about U.K. I would have thought with them considered "old money", they would have already learned their lessons countless times. UK doesn't look so hot these days either, if I'm not mistaken.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 30, 2008 - 5:01pm.

fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:
Interesting, I never knew that about U.K. I would have thought with them considered "old money", they would have already learned their lessons countless times. UK doesn't look so hot these days either, if I'm not mistaken.
I'm not sure they meant all of UK or just England. I haven't heard much about Ireland and Scotland but should read up about it.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 30, 2008 - 5:06pm.

Hi partypup, yes peacemaker was my wild-west euphemism for a gun. Some call it a "piece maker" or a "go in peace (or pieces) to your maker".

partypup wrote:
Yes, I've been reading a lot about this, too. Between the fear of an Obama win (gun control goes wild), the fear of an Obama loss (irrational fear of riots and unrest), and the economy melting down uncontrollably, it looks as though guns and ammo may soon provide the best return on investment ;-)
Seriously, I think a good stock investment may be in guns, security, defense, etc. as well as vaults, safes, and the like. In a logical market I would go long on co's like Smith/Wesson but this market is totally irrational so I'm getting out completely. Plus, my investment guesses are often dead wrong.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 30, 2008 - 5:08pm.

CardiffBaseball wrote:
Ben Jones' blog participants have been advocating stocking up on ammo for quite some time. The reasoning over there was if there was some kind of depression, that crime might rise and one might have to really protect basic necessities.
Ammo would also be a great barter currency should the worst come to pass.

Submitted by nostradamus on October 30, 2008 - 5:16pm.

Rustico wrote:
In hard times I'll take family jewels vs. precious metals anyday. I think Nostradamus alluded to that.However, realizing that each of us is endowed differently to handle calamity, I think it would be wise to consider sharing and helping fellow citizens. Correct me if I am wrong but I hear a lot of ,me, me, me.Greed actually...I am going to capitalize by dumping dollars, I am going to steal land for my shiny stuff. What does that have to do with a catastrophe? That is what scares me the most. The idea goes through my head that the ones most obsessing about hypothetical Helter skelter scenarios are going to be the least useful to anyone when it happens.

You're right. I think it's a result of the world we were brought up in. Since my whole life has been spent in pursuit of the almighty dollar it is hard to imagine a world departed from it.

My biggest fear is panicked masses when the world changes to whatever it's changing to. When someone is drowning sometimes they drown their rescuers as well. I can already see (or perhaps it's my own self-fulfilling prophecy) stress on people's faces and in their behavior.

Submitted by partypup on October 30, 2008 - 8:15pm.

Agree completely, Arraya.

Rustico, let's not mistake the desire to be self-sufficient -- and in doing so, enhance our ability to help others -- with "greed". I fully anticipate that I will be called upon to help family and friends, and I am more than prepared to do so. However, without the proper resources, I won't be able to do so. I'm certainly not looking to "steal" land. But I plan to be out of LA by the time the level of unrest becomes palpable to the general public, living on a spread large enough to accommodate my family and others who are in need and wish to join me. Frankly, I can't see getting through the coming years without relying on a close-knit community of friends and family. I would hope that everyone will have something to bring to the table: land, seeds, skills, food, ammo and other hard assets. And if I can make the purchase farm-producing land at a bargain-basement price as real estate becomes increasingly illiquid, why should I be faulted for my foresight?

You might be interested in knowing that I have gone to great lengths over the past 2-1/2 years to sound the alarm and reach out to any and all friends and family who will listen. I advised them to sell their real estate; to greatly reduce their stock exposure; to keep plenty of cash on hand; to buy a weapon; to stock up on food and other supplies. I warned those I know, just as I wanted to warn others in this post. And many of my friends have actually thanked me recently for saving their financial hides. I know for a fact that everyone who has taken my advice is in a vastly superior position to survive what's coming.

So, if the question is whether I will be "useful" to anyone when the hypothetical Helter Skelter scenarios come to pass, the answer is simple: I've already ben useful to plenty of people BEFORE the unthinkable happens. And that's when it counts most. Because preparation is everything. I'm not giving these people fish; I'm teaching them HOW to fish.

Now, let me ask you: how do YOU propose to be "useful" when TSHTF? ;-)

Submitted by TheBreeze on October 30, 2008 - 8:25pm.

So it's now been 6 weeks since the original post was made. When's the chaos going to get here already? Or did it get here and I missed it? Wasn't gold supposed to sky rocket?

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