OT - Biden the Boring

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Submitted by spdrun on May 19, 2021 - 1:54pm

He's not a drama queen, he's in the news because his policies are mostly working, not because of his latest gaffe or dog whistle, he's a competent manager, which is really all one can ask from a president. He doesn't provoke animal spirits like Trump did. Since 20 January:

S&P 500 up 6%, DOW up 8%, NASDAQ down 1.2%. Compare that to Trump's performance over the same period of 2017.

DOW: +5%
S&P 500: +5%.
NASDAQ: +9%.

Biden is only doing slightly better, despite coming out of recession, and NASDAQ performance is actually worse. It seems like people are "meh" about competence and prefer drama and animal spirits.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 2:45pm.

The job is CEO not king. The other guy never understood that

Submitted by XBoxBoy on May 19, 2021 - 4:24pm.

Can we please stop with pretending the performance of stock markets is somehow correlated with presidential performance. 1) The presidents job is not to make stock markets go up. 2) The president has very little impact on the economy particularly in their first half year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 4:51pm.

Agreed

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 20, 2021 - 8:54am.

XBoxBoy wrote:
Can we please stop with pretending the performance of stock markets is somehow correlated with presidential performance. 1) The presidents job is not to make stock markets go up. 2) The president has very little impact on the economy particularly in their first half year.

Yes, thank you. Also 3) short-term stock market movements are driven entirely by sentiment and liquidity and have basically nothing to do with the long-term health of the economy.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 20, 2021 - 9:05am.

Although in fairness, I suppose that's what spd was getting at with his "animal spirits" comment. But still, my reply to that would be "who cares?"

I am baffled by the idea that it's somehow good for the economy if people want to overpay for stocks (or houses or other financial assets). That may provide a short-term economic boost via the wealth effect, but that cuts both ways and there will be a reverse wealth-effect if/when asset prices return to normal. (And if they don't return to normal, then you've permanently lowered future returns, ie you just moved returns forward in time a bit).

Sorry spd, not to pick on you... you've just hit on one of my pet peeves*, which in this case is trying to derive meaning from short term stock price movements, combined with a second pet peeve which is pretending there is or should be a relationship between stock performance and presidential performance.

* - I have many, many pet peeves and this is a function of my bad personality, nothing to do with you.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 9:17am.

FWIW my take away on the stock performance this year is not that Joementum caused it or had anything to do with it. Its simply to ridicule the former occupant and his followers that somehow electing him would destroy our 401K's and the economy. Im glad adults are back in charge and running things more quietly in the background. Dont miss all the non stop political chatter here or elsewhere

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 9:33am.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Although in fairness, I suppose that's what spd was getting at with his "animal spirits" comment. But still, my reply to that would be "who cares?"

I am baffled by the idea that it's somehow good for the economy if people want to overpay for stocks (or houses or other financial assets). That may provide a short-term economic boost via the wealth effect, but that cuts both ways and there will be a reverse wealth-effect if/when asset prices return to normal. (And if they don't return to normal, then you've permanently lowered future returns, ie you just moved returns forward in time a bit).

Sorry spd, not to pick on you... you've just hit on one of my pet peeves*, which in this case is trying to derive meaning from short term stock price movements, combined with a second pet peeve which is pretending there is or should be a relationship between stock performance and presidential performance.

* - I have many, many pet peeves and this is a function of my bad personality, nothing to do with you.

That is my complaint about our entire system which is completely run by the Fed (irrespective of President or party in Office). It is disturbing that our economy is run by a secret cult of "Fed Presidents" that aren't elected or accountable to the people. And as Rich points out this endless money printing to create "wealth effect" just causes people to overpay for assets and the less fortunate to be completely priced out of housing and other things.

Another example of the craziness of this everything bubble we are in: I just pulled up a chart of microsoft stock at random. Since 2017 it is up 400%! Just another example of the extreme price distortion caused by Fed money printing. Anyone who argues this is a good thing is just selfish and greedy because they are part of top % who are benefitting from this.

Submitted by gogogosandiego on May 20, 2021 - 12:10pm.

The Fed is independent of our Government (but accountable to Congress) by design. The Fed's mandates are set by Congress. The Fed only controls Monetary Policy while Congress controls Fiscal Policy. See where this is going?

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 12:57pm.

gogogosandiego wrote:
The Fed is independent of our Government (but accountable to Congress) by design. The Fed's mandates are set by Congress. The Fed only controls Monetary Policy while Congress controls Fiscal Policy. See where this is going?

Not sure where this is going. But I am certain that Congress has no input into the Fed's decision making. Congress clearly had no input into the Fed's QE or ZIRP policies. There have been no debates on captitol hill regarding the merits of flooding Trillions of dollars of liquidity into the economy.

Submitted by gogogosandiego on May 20, 2021 - 1:07pm.

The Feds mandates come from Congress. The Fed does what it can using Monetary Policy to attempt to carry out those mandates. Most of the things you are concerned with such as people not being able to afford homes could be at least aided by Congress. Congress has not mandated that the Fed make homes affordable.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on May 20, 2021 - 1:17pm.

deadzone wrote:
That is my complaint about our entire system which is completely run by the Fed (irrespective of President or party in Office). It is disturbing that our economy is run by a secret cult of "Fed Presidents" that aren't elected or accountable to the people.

I have serious doubts that Congress (or a President) would do a better job. It seems to me that too many politicians would direct policy to improve their chance of promoting their party. While it is easy to criticize the current fed policy, I think with Congress in charge things could be way worse.

Submitted by gogogosandiego on May 20, 2021 - 1:39pm.

Bingo. Which is exactly why the Fed is independent "within" the Government. Things like taxation, regulation, wages, price controls and most of the rest of the stuff that shapes our country and economy are under the control of Congress.

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 1:58pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
deadzone wrote:
That is my complaint about our entire system which is completely run by the Fed (irrespective of President or party in Office). It is disturbing that our economy is run by a secret cult of "Fed Presidents" that aren't elected or accountable to the people.

I have serious doubts that Congress (or a President) would do a better job. It seems to me that too many politicians would direct policy to improve their chance of promoting their party. While it is easy to criticize the current fed policy, I think with Congress in charge things could be way worse.

Well if Congress was involved it would be partisan but at least there would be debate. The Fed policies primarily benefit the rich and they are causing major problems with affordability for the average American (to buy houses among other things). I find it ironic that the Democratic party is the one who talks about supporting working class, poor, etc. and championing affordable housing, etc. Yet not a peep from Biden or any of them regarding this asset bubble and the fact that the Fed is behind it.

Just further confirms the sad reality of what we already knew (unless you've been living under a rock since 2008), that the U.S. (including both parties) is controlled by the Wall St. Banks.

Submitted by gogogosandiego on May 20, 2021 - 2:04pm.

In places like San Diego the limited overall and available supply of housing is the main driver of prices, not the Fed's policies.

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 3:30pm.

gogogosandiego wrote:
In places like San Diego the limited overall and available supply of housing is the main driver of prices, not the Fed's policies.

Wrong assumption. Fed policies are driving massive RE and Asset price increases everywhere. You and sdr need to get out of your bubbles.

Limited supply, most likely due to covid related policies such as the Rent and Mortgage moratoriums, is definitely contributing. But for sure the primary driver is the massive demand increase brought about by the Fed literally spewing out trillions of dollars over the last year.

Submitted by gogogosandiego on May 20, 2021 - 3:39pm.

There is no assumption. As a country there are fewer new housing units being built annually than there were in 2008 and prior - and the amount being built pre 08 was not adequate to keep up with population growth. Couple that with a desirable places to live like SD where geography, zoning and NIMBYism curtail new construction. Supply and demand.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 5:21pm.

deadzone wrote:
Rich Toscano wrote:
Although in fairness, I suppose that's what spd was getting at with his "animal spirits" comment. But still, my reply to that would be "who cares?"

I am baffled by the idea that it's somehow good for the economy if people want to overpay for stocks (or houses or other financial assets). That may provide a short-term economic boost via the wealth effect, but that cuts both ways and there will be a reverse wealth-effect if/when asset prices return to normal. (And if they don't return to normal, then you've permanently lowered future returns, ie you just moved returns forward in time a bit).

Sorry spd, not to pick on you... you've just hit on one of my pet peeves*, which in this case is trying to derive meaning from short term stock price movements, combined with a second pet peeve which is pretending there is or should be a relationship between stock performance and presidential performance.

* - I have many, many pet peeves and this is a function of my bad personality, nothing to do with you.

That is my complaint about our entire system which is completely run by the Fed (irrespective of President or party in Office). It is disturbing that our economy is run by a secret cult of "Fed Presidents" that aren't elected or accountable to the people. And as Rich points out this endless money printing to create "wealth effect" just causes people to overpay for assets and the less fortunate to be completely priced out of housing and other things.

Another example of the craziness of this everything bubble we are in: I just pulled up a chart of microsoft stock at random. Since 2017 it is up 400%! Just another example of the extreme price distortion caused by Fed money printing. Anyone who argues this is a good thing is just selfish and greedy because they are part of top % who are benefitting from this.

Ive owned MSFT shares for over 30 years. Might want to look back longer than 2017. It was pretty much flat from 1999 to 2017. A successful dominant tech company was almost flat for close to 20 years until they made the transition to the cloud and SAAS. They have massive dedicated customer base and finally were able to increase their margins. Thats the primary reason the stock finally went up.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 5:26pm.

gogogosandiego wrote:
In places like San Diego the limited overall and available supply of housing is the main driver of prices, not the Fed's policies.

Correct and he knows they are not going up everywhere. I proved him wrong on that yesterday with a condo from my hometown (with demographics similar or stronger than Carlsbad) that appreciated about 30% since 1991. He's too married to his failed choices in the past to see things any other way

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 5:58pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
gogogosandiego wrote:
In places like San Diego the limited overall and available supply of housing is the main driver of prices, not the Fed's policies.

Correct and he knows they are not going up everywhere. I proved him wrong on that yesterday with a condo from my hometown (with demographics similar or stronger than Carlsbad) that appreciated about 30% since 1991. He's too married to his failed choices in the past to see things any other way

What do my choices of the past have anything to do with this argument? Jesus Christ you are a creepy SOB. RE is going up all over the country, not just San Diego. Just cause you cherry pick your POS neighborhood in Philly, about the least desirable place to live in the U.S., that's not really relevant to the point that Fed money is creating the bulk of this RE craze.

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 6:04pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

Ive owned MSFT shares for over 30 years. Might want to look back longer than 2017. It was pretty much flat from 1999 to 2017. A successful dominant tech company was almost flat for close to 20 years until they made the transition to the cloud and SAAS. They have massive dedicated customer base and finally were able to increase their margins. Thats the primary reason the stock finally went up..

Damn, just when I thought you could not get any more clueless. Your argument would almost be believable if pretty much every other tech company didn't have a similar chart. But I know at this point you are just arguing for argument's sake. I realize you don't have a job or occupation of any worth to fill your day so you have to argue non-sense about topics you have no particular knowledge. I'm only wasting my time on here recently because I'm getting bored of working at home and I sense we are nearing a tipping point with all of this.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 6:26pm.

Actually I was out golfing all day with a guy who reminded me of you. He was fed up with CA and decided last year he might move. His neighbor sold their house in December. He ran into his neighbor in January and the guy was crying he couldnt find anything to buy or rent. Neighbor was basically couch surfing and knew this guy was thinking of selling. Neighbor asked him if he'd sell. he said yes and sold to him in february. Then he rented a townhome for a year to decide if he actually was going to move. He is convinced it will crash here and he was hoping to actually stay. Then he admitted he has already left well over $200K on the table since he sold and now he has no choice but to leave. he's thinking Arkansas. You may want to look into it also.

But back to the point. You didnt mention every other tech company you mentioned MSFT which I know more than a little about. Why dont you check out some others like CSCO, ORCL, IBM, INTC and let me know if those are up 400% also. I can provide tons more if those dont suffice

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 6:33pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
gogogosandiego wrote:
In places like San Diego the limited overall and available supply of housing is the main driver of prices, not the Fed's policies.

Correct and he knows they are not going up everywhere. I proved him wrong on that yesterday with a condo from my hometown (with demographics similar or stronger than Carlsbad) that appreciated about 30% since 1991. He's too married to his failed choices in the past to see things any other way

What do my choices of the past have anything to do with this argument? Jesus Christ you are a creepy SOB. RE is going up all over the country, not just San Diego. Just cause you cherry pick your POS neighborhood in Philly, about the least desirable place to live in the U.S., that's not really relevant to the point that Fed money is creating the bulk of this RE craze.

Cherry pick an undesireable place. That town is phenomenal. Outside of the weather and natural beauty it is every bit as nice as where we live with better schools, better healthcare, great jobs and a higher median income. Its going up lots of places but not everywhere and very few places like it is here

And its not just me you are whining to, now its a bunch of others. You are like an old man yelling at the clouds

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 6:32pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
gogogosandiego wrote:
In places like San Diego the limited overall and available supply of housing is the main driver of prices, not the Fed's policies.

Correct and he knows they are not going up everywhere. I proved him wrong on that yesterday with a condo from my hometown (with demographics similar or stronger than Carlsbad) that appreciated about 30% since 1991. He's too married to his failed choices in the past to see things any other way

You are so full of crap. I just looked up Case Shiller index for Philadelphia, it has tripled since 1990. That is a 200% increase since I know you are mathematically challenged.

Also Case Shiller National composite index has gone up 12% in the last year alone. I'd say that pretty much proves that home prices are rising dramatically EVERYWHERE.

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 6:40pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Actually I was out golfing all day with a guy who reminded me of you. He was fed up with CA and decided last year he might move. His neighbor sold their house in December. He ran into his neighbor in January and the guy was crying he couldnt find anything to buy or rent. Neighbor was basically couch surfing and knew this guy was thinking of selling. Neighbor asked him if he'd sell. he said yes and sold to him in february. Then he rented a townhome for a year to decide if he actually was going to move. He is convinced it will crash here and he was hoping to actually stay. Then he admitted he has already left well over $200K on the table since he sold and now he has no choice but to leave. he's thinking Arkansas. You may want to look into it also.

But back to the point. You didnt mention every other tech company you mentioned MSFT which I know more than a little about. Why dont you check out some others like CSCO, ORCL, IBM, INTC and let me know if those are up 400% also. I can provide tons more if those dont suffice

More psycho babble, blah blah blah. Instead of arguing that I'm wrong about the Fed causing this bubble (which is an argument you can't win) go into another irrelevant tangent. By the way QQQ chart is pretty damn similar to MSFT. I guess Fed money printing had nothing to do with that either.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 6:51pm.

You are pathetic. i provided a real example. I can provide dozens of others. I know prices back there. I still have tons of friends and family back there. Prices are not up 200%

Here's a house. These have done better than condos but nothing like here. Good friends house growing up. Parents sold it in 1994. It sold for less in 99. It hasnt doubled yet

https://www.zillow.com/homes/500-Firesid...

And another. Sold for $220K in 1993. Just resold for $379K

https://www.redfin.com/NJ/Cherry-Hill/18...

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 6:47pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Actually I was out golfing all day with a guy who reminded me of you. He was fed up with CA and decided last year he might move. His neighbor sold their house in December. He ran into his neighbor in January and the guy was crying he couldnt find anything to buy or rent. Neighbor was basically couch surfing and knew this guy was thinking of selling. Neighbor asked him if he'd sell. he said yes and sold to him in february. Then he rented a townhome for a year to decide if he actually was going to move. He is convinced it will crash here and he was hoping to actually stay. Then he admitted he has already left well over $200K on the table since he sold and now he has no choice but to leave. he's thinking Arkansas. You may want to look into it also.

But back to the point. You didnt mention every other tech company you mentioned MSFT which I know more than a little about. Why dont you check out some others like CSCO, ORCL, IBM, INTC and let me know if those are up 400% also. I can provide tons more if those dont suffice

More psycho babble, blah blah blah. Instead of arguing that I'm wrong about the Fed causing this bubble (which is an argument you can't win) go into another irrelevant tangent. By the way QQQ chart is pretty damn similar to MSFT. I guess Fed money printing had nothing to do with that either.

No one is saying the fed isnt providing excess liquidity. Just that its not everywhere or everything or the same across the board. There are always winners and losers out there. Its apparent who is who around here

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 7:16pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
You are pathetic. i provided a real example. I can provide dozens of others. I know prices back there. I still have tons of friends and family back there. Prices are not up 200%

Here's a house. These have done better than condos but nothing like here. Good friends house growing up. Parents sold it in 1994. It sold for less in 99. It hasnt doubled yet

https://www.zillow.com/homes/500-Firesid...

And another. Sold for $220K in 1993. Just resold for $379K

https://www.redfin.com/NJ/Cherry-Hill/1803-Fireside-Ln-08003/home/36161269

I'm pathetic? I just called you out on your BS. Case Shiller is a big lie I guess. Typical SDR, get called out for your BS, then start with the name calling and personal attacks.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 7:37pm.

Typical deadzone. Denying facts. First, you provided a C-S for Philly. This is not Philly. Its not even Pennsylvania.

Case Shiller is far from perfect. It isnt even close to describing what is going on in SD right now.

I provided specific paired sales. I could provide them all day. I know the what the market was there 30 years ago. I sold my parents home back then. I have followed its value since then and it has at best doubled. I know what the market there is now. It is nothing close to up 200%.

The house I provided has doubled since 99. My house is up more than 4 times since 99. This is not the same everywhere. Its not even close to the same everywhere

And no one here has lodged close to as many personal attacks as you have. Im surprised you havent been booted yet

Submitted by deadzone on May 20, 2021 - 7:55pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Typical deadzone. Denying facts. First, you provided a C-S for Philly. This is not Philly. Its not even Pennsylvania.

Case Shiller is far from perfect. It isnt even close to describing what is going on in SD right now.

I provided specific paired sales. I could provide them all day. I know the what the market was there 30 years ago. I sold my parents home back then. I have followed its value since then and it has at best doubled. I know what the market there is now. It is nothing close to up 200%.

The house I provided has doubled since 99. My house is up more than 4 times since 99. This is not the same everywhere. Its not even close to the same everywhere

And no one here has lodged close to as many personal attacks as you have. Im surprised you havent been booted yet

Not denying any facts. Just presenting you Case Shiller. It is up 12% nationally in the last year and 200% since 1990 for Philly. You can make excuses all you want because it doesn't match your personal narrative. Typical SDR thinking you can take your limited personal experiences and extrapolate those to explain the macro view.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 20, 2021 - 8:05pm.

Serious question and I'll answer them too

How many homes have you personally bought or sold.

15 times as either buyer or seller

What do you do careerwise that qualifies you as a subject matter on real estate or analyzing financial data

Former CPA
bachelors and masters degree in fields of accounting, finance, economics and market analysis
19 years selling real estate across more than 200 closed transactions

What do you have in the way of direct experience? Have you ever actually bought anything?

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