November housing graphs

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 12, 2021 - 12:31pm




























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Submitted by gzz on December 13, 2021 - 3:57pm.

Inventory hit the rock bottom 2k line for a second time! I predict this time it keeps falling rather than bouncing up like in Feb-April 2021. This time in 2018 it was 7200.

Very bullish compared to even one month prior:

YoY price up 21%
MoM price up at 24% annual rate
Sharp drop in the inventory, much more than in the Oct-Nov 2020 period.

I'm sensing another sharp price rise a-brewin'.

There's many reasons to buy, none to sell.

With rents rising and rate dropping, I am thinking of switching over to 15 year mortgages on everything. I also might pay off the condo loan, it is hard to get a good rate on a condo loan with only 200k balance.

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 14, 2021 - 11:11am.

These prices are very tempting for boomers particularly those that didn't save well for retirement. Wouldn't surprise me to see a nice uptick in listings this Spring

Submitted by an on December 14, 2021 - 8:18pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
These prices are very tempting for boomers particularly those that didn't save well for retirement. Wouldn't surprise me to see a nice uptick in listings this Spring

I hope you're right. Those boomers tend to be holding on to some of the best lots.

Submitted by Escoguy on December 14, 2021 - 11:13pm.

gzz wrote:
Inventory hit the rock bottom 2k line for a second time! I predict this time it keeps falling rather than bouncing up like in Feb-April 2021. This time in 2018 it was 7200.

Very bullish compared to even one month prior:

YoY price up 21%
MoM price up at 24% annual rate
Sharp drop in the inventory, much more than in the Oct-Nov 2020 period.

I'm sensing another sharp price rise a-brewin'.

There's many reasons to buy, none to sell.

With rents rising and rate dropping, I am thinking of switching over to 15 year mortgages on everything. I also might pay off the condo loan, it is hard to get a good rate on a condo loan with only 200k balance.

You can get a heloc from Third Federal for up to 200K for 2.25%.

Submitted by Escoguy on December 14, 2021 - 11:18pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
These prices are very tempting for boomers particularly those that didn't save well for retirement. Wouldn't surprise me to see a nice uptick in listings this Spring

The three zipcodes I'm in 92127, 92027, 92078 have as thin of inventory as I've ever seen. I haven't seen a single credible forecast showing prices fall in SoCal or San Diego. It's both stunning and humbling at the same time.

When I consider the compound inflationary impact of increased regulations and land use restrictions, the rate of appreciation may increase due to other factors outside of materials and labor. Permit costs aren't going down, sewage connections aren't getting cheaper. Etc.

Submitted by gzz on December 15, 2021 - 3:57pm.

You can get a heloc from Third Federal for up to 200K for 2.25%.

That's one option. Another is a cashout 15 year refi at about 2% on my primary.

The condo is 200k 3.6% 30 year, and that rate has got to go.

The only question is if I just pay it off entirely with excess cash now invested in the stock market and bonds, or add to my primary's balance around 2%.

The excess 1.6% is like 3200 a year out the window.

Submitted by gzz on December 15, 2021 - 4:12pm.

The three zipcodes I'm in 92127, 92027, 92078 have as thin of inventory as I've ever seen.

OB proper has 0 single family homes for sale. Never have I seen that in my 15 years following that submarket.

(There's 1 duplex listed as SFH, and maybe 4630 Del Mar counts as OB, so inventory is two under a liberal definition).

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 15, 2021 - 6:05pm.

gzz wrote:

The three zipcodes I'm in 92127, 92027, 92078 have as thin of inventory as I've ever seen.

OB proper has 0 single family homes for sale. Never have I seen that in my 15 years following that submarket.

(There's 1 duplex listed as SFH, and maybe 4630 Del Mar counts as OB, so inventory is two under a liberal definition).

OB is a very small market with relatively few SFR's. It reminds me of Cardiff which also is often prone to very low to no inventory. Small markets like those are tougher to track and take away meaningful info as they can skew so easily with such small sample sizes. BTW, There are currently 8 homes in 92107 active on the MLS. Not all OB proper so to speak but still the overall OB market

To the contrary large SFR zips like 92009 and 92027 are both in single digits now. These are zips that traditionally had levels of 50+ sfr's. From an analytical perspective more statistically significant data points

Submitted by wawawa on December 21, 2021 - 12:39pm.

How young people are suppose to become home owners?

Submitted by gzz on December 21, 2021 - 1:54pm.

Well I moved here after college in 2005 and saved ~60% of my after tax income and waited for a market crash in 2011. Easy peasy!

Realistically, young home buyers are a mix of very high income, DINKs, and recipients of generational wealth.

Submitted by gzz on December 21, 2021 - 2:03pm.

SDR while 92107 zip makes an easy proxy for OB, in also includes Sunset Cliffs which is its own very high end world, and the western end of Point Loma Heights, which is spread over 3 zip codes and more downscale than OB, though parts of it has gentrified extremely fast via new luxury construction.

Here the proxy value has broken down because the “upper middle” end of the market in OB proper is simply tighter than the top and lower middle.

There’s actually now one new sfh listing right on the OB sand for 3.4 million but I don’t see it on Sdlookup right now. It’s quite a beauty. 5147 Cape May. I predict a sale above list.

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 22, 2021 - 9:02am.

The area is just too small to make any extrapolations from. You can cut it up however you like but any stats are of limited use due to small sample sizes. Over time I’ve learned to focus on tracking markets big enough that they are actually market surrogates

Submitted by phaster on December 27, 2021 - 12:48pm.

Escoguy wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
These prices are very tempting for boomers particularly those that didn't save well for retirement. Wouldn't surprise me to see a nice uptick in listings this Spring

The three zipcodes I'm in 92127, 92027, 92078 have as thin of inventory as I've ever seen. I haven't seen a single credible forecast showing prices fall in SoCal or San Diego. It's both stunning and humbling at the same time.

When I consider the compound inflationary impact of increased regulations and land use restrictions, the rate of appreciation may increase due to other factors outside of materials and labor. Permit costs aren't going down, sewage connections aren't getting cheaper. Etc.

any guesses how much longer the party lasts

Submitted by Escoguy on January 12, 2022 - 4:55pm.

phaster wrote:
Escoguy wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
These prices are very tempting for boomers particularly those that didn't save well for retirement. Wouldn't surprise me to see a nice uptick in listings this Spring

The three zipcodes I'm in 92127, 92027, 92078 have as thin of inventory as I've ever seen. I haven't seen a single credible forecast showing prices fall in SoCal or San Diego. It's both stunning and humbling at the same time.

When I consider the compound inflationary impact of increased regulations and land use restrictions, the rate of appreciation may increase due to other factors outside of materials and labor. Permit costs aren't going down, sewage connections aren't getting cheaper. Etc.

any guesses how much longer the party lasts

My crystal ball only goes out about 6 months: for now I am seeing even less inventory, almost on a daily basis.

I'm not sure the year over year charts are really comparable.

if there were 3000 homes on the market in 2016 for example, the price was X% less, say $750K county wide. Now there are a total of approx 2700 but only 200 are 3BR below 1.4M >2000 sf. So net effect, there are very few affordable homes.

The market reminds me of trench warfare in WWI. Both sides will fight to the death but not much will change. I don't see the usual catalysts of a bigger downturn:

-higher rates, maybe in 1-2 years but rates are negative in many places
-tighter credit, might be prudent but I don't see lenders tightening their standards
-many local buyers are upgrade buyers (would guess at least 50%)
-new supply is very slow in coming and at low quantities
-the exodus from California seems to have been from the Bay Area
-the one large owner that could have "dumped" Zillow seems to have not impacted anything

Oddly enough, the one catalyst for more inventory might be a tax code reform to revise the depreciation recapture down from the current 25% to a more normal 15%. Some might sell if the long term gains tax were similar to other financial assets. For now the tax code incentivizes holding and borrowing against if you need cash.

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