San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
November 2018 housing data: months of inventory jumps again, but prices steady
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 15, 2018 - 12:20pm
Months of inventory notched up another big increase in November:
This measure of supply vs. demand is now 80% above where it was a year ago. Granted, that was coming off a very low level. But it just goes to show how much, and how quickly, things have changed.
Here's a longer term view to put that in perspective. It's not too far above late-2013 and 2014 levels. But it's quite a bit above what the market had gotten to recently -- and it is the highest since the bust ended. (In my view the bust ended in January 2012, which was when prices reached their inflation-adjusted low).
The rise in months of inventory is happening from both sides -- lower sales, and higher inventory. (Though in the case of the latter, it's more a matter of inventory holding pretty steady at a time of year when it would usually be declining).
Despite that, prices seem to have held pretty steady. The singly family price per square foot didn't budge for the month. (Condos were down a lot but that is such an erratic series that you can't read into a single months' move).
The Case-Shiller "proxy" was actually up a wee bit for the month, but that's pretty laggy.
I think we will probably see mild price declines in the months ahead, based on the level of months of inventory. But that would be a fairly normal thing for winter. It will get more analytically interesting in spring, when we get to see how the market reacts to this huge (relatively) increase in supply vs. demand.
More charts below.
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