November 2014 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 21, 2014 - 3:20pm
Hi everyone -- I'm going to keep it brief and just do a graph-only version this month.  Happy holidays to all!




































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Submitted by Escoguy on January 2, 2015 - 11:26pm.

Thanks for update. Is appreciated. So is boring beautiful?

Seems like the market continues to settle. Low interest rates, lower fuel costs, more renewable energy (reduce future economic shocks), moderate employment and wage growth, all give sort of a Goldie Locks scenario.

Even the federal budget deficit is coming down. More immigrants will keep a lid on wage inflation and hopefully add some innovation too.

I guess we could complain about it being difficult to get a loan or rents going up? Also a lack of newly built supply isn't helpful. But a lot of people want to live in SD so demand isn't likely to slacken anytime soon. Credit should loosen some going forward but unlikely to have the systemic impact of the financial crisis.

What am I missing? Perhaps the booming bio-tech sector may do so well as to cure some major diseases. Could they work themselves out of revenue by being too successful? Most likely not.

Submitted by spdrun on January 3, 2015 - 5:19pm.

Don't worry... something unexpected will always come along and throw the economy back on its face.

We shouldn't be too happy about cheap oil, either. (a) It's a sign of worldwide slowdown in demand.
(b) It'll slow down innovation as far as alternatives and more efficient use.
(c) If we go back to driving fuckin land barges and commuting from bumfawk, a price shock will hit us very hard.

BTW, why should we complain about loans being hard to get? The same kind of skells who got loans in the mid-2000s should never be allowed to borrow a cent again. Let them eat ca... I mean, rent.

Submitted by Escoguy on January 3, 2015 - 5:49pm.

Spdrun:

Energy (including oil) demand is growing, but has shifted:

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report...

I think this is just as much because of EVs/PHEVs etc. About 100K in California alone so far. Once you drive electric, you don't go back. Even with $2/gas, electric is still cheaper especially if you put in solar. Now if it goes to $1/gallon, perhaps. But don't think that will happen.

Agree, something could come along but it will likely be different next go round. Perhaps deflation becomes more severe? Not complaining about the loan situation, preference it doesn't loosen too much.

Submitted by spdrun on January 3, 2015 - 7:50pm.

I saw $1.85 today in NJ -- wouldn't be surprised if it hits $1.50, honestly.

Submitted by AN on January 4, 2015 - 1:01am.

spdrun wrote:
I saw $1.85 today in NJ -- wouldn't be surprised if it hits $1.50, honestly.

Damn CA and our gas tax. It's getting more expensive this year than last year. I wish we can see $1.85/gallon.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on January 5, 2015 - 11:16am.

Looks like a fairly "typical" November, with both supply and demand dipping.

Submitted by Jazzman on January 11, 2015 - 11:50am.

Inventory still incredibly low, though increasing a bit. Contingent going down quite quickly. Are buyers catching on?

Submitted by Escoguy on January 14, 2015 - 10:49pm.

Not sure what you mean, sales are up in Dec, and prices too.
Rates are down, gas gets cheaper. Jobs are getting easier to find. Sometimes with higher wages. 30 year treasury at record low yield. Some bond investors think rates will continue down. Kind of counter intuitive, but the way things go today. Not a lot of new construction in SD for foreseeable future.

A few years ago only 5K lots were still available to build in in county. That's down some by now.

Submitted by biggoldbear on February 3, 2015 - 1:35pm.

It's February now... where are December's numbers? Not to be pushy, and I know they are fairly predictable, just Jones'n for my monthly data fix.

Submitted by phaster on February 7, 2015 - 10:53am.

Just a thought/suggestion ever consider a chart showing historical/current GRM (gross rent multipliers) for investment properties?

this way an investor could see and compare if a rental is out of historical norms (for example Golden Hill/Bankers Hill for a long time [20+ year time span] the neighborhood was range bound between 8 and 12, but I've had brokers tell me within the past few years they have had deals pushing 16+)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 7, 2015 - 2:54pm.

biggoldbear wrote:
It's February now... where are December's numbers? Not to be pushy, and I know they are fairly predictable, just Jones'n for my monthly data fix.

Sorry, got pretty busy last month... new numbers are up with Dec and Jan data.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 7, 2015 - 2:55pm.

phaster wrote:
Just a thought/suggestion ever consider a chart showing historical/current GRM (gross rent multipliers) for investment properties?

this way an investor could see and compare if a rental is out of historical norms (for example Golden Hill/Bankers Hill for a long time [20+ year time span] the neighborhood was range bound between 8 and 12, but I've had brokers tell me within the past few years they have had deals pushing 16+)

I've never seen historical data for that, unfortunately...

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