November 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 15, 2009 - 5:49pm

November saw the 7-month rally in San Diego home prices, as measured by the median price per square foot, come to an end:

I wrote about this last week, briefly. 

The plain-vanilla median exhibited similar behavior:

My Case-Shiller proxy kept a-rising because it's based on a three-month average of the price data.  This is actually notable because when we look at spring rallies past, we do so using the CS index.  So from that historical standpoint, the "spring rally" has not actually ended yet:

November sales volume dropped by an amount that has been about the average Oct->Nov drop over the past 5 years (I wrote about this a bit at Voice):

Inventory was up a bit, but at more or less the same level it has been in recent months.

Months of inventory was up slightly:

So, we had decent supply and demand, but prices fell a bit.  Perhaps even better supply/demand fundamentals are needed to push prices up in the face of widespread unemployment. Or, it could be that sellers are starting to give way a bit on price.  Or, it could just one month's worth of noise in the data...
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Submitted by sdduuuude on December 16, 2009 - 11:12am.

I'm soooo excited for next month. I can't wait to see what color you will use for 2010. Will it be hot pink? Red ? Will Doug Henning make a special New Years appearance ? So many questions.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 16, 2009 - 12:39pm.

Ha! I hadn't even thought about it. I was maybe gonna just let 2007 roll off the chart... i thought more than 3 years could make it kind of cluttery. I will take your hot pink suggestion under advisement.

rich

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 16, 2009 - 3:10pm.

I vote for keeping 2007 as its a very important year. The graph clearly shows the subprime meltdown/credit contraction cratering home sales and causing inventory to peak. From a historical perspective I think its important to keep that baseline.

How about Chartruese?

Submitted by drboom on December 17, 2009 - 7:49pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I vote for keeping 2007 as its a very important year. The graph clearly shows the subprime meltdown/credit contraction cratering home sales and causing inventory to peak. From a historical perspective I think its important to keep that baseline.

I agree, please keep it.

Quote:
How about Chartruese?

I was thinking calico, to chart the downside of the dead cat bounce.

Submitted by CA renter on December 18, 2009 - 3:33am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I vote for keeping 2007 as its a very important year. The graph clearly shows the subprime meltdown/credit contraction cratering home sales and causing inventory to peak. From a historical perspective I think its important to keep that baseline.

How about Chartruese?

Agree! Please keep the 2007 trendline, Rich. :)

Submitted by nicksandiego on January 5, 2010 - 8:30pm.

Rich,
You have probably answered this in the past, but in your charts you say your source is sandicor .. but they do not supply numbers such as price per square foot as far as I have seen. Please let me know if Im mistaken and where within sandicor this is. Thanks!

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 5, 2010 - 9:37pm.

You can pull their data into excel and run whatever calculations you want... they supply price and square footage.

rich

Submitted by nicksandiego on January 6, 2010 - 12:47pm.

Thanks Rich... That must be a ton of data to sort. So are you using all of the zips within San Diego County?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 6, 2010 - 1:53pm.

Yes...

rich

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