North County Inland: 92127, 92027, 92078

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Submitted by Escoguy on August 14, 2020 - 10:21pm

These are the zips I own in: am contracted for two SFHs: one in 92127 and one in 92027.

92127 seller is contingent, wants a single story, so the 30 day timer starts. We are in no rush and might extend. Already have a 3BR rental in 4S which has been successful (2014 purchase). Since 2005, even with great recession drop appreciation has averaged 2.1% per year. Obviously higher if only count recovery period. New SFH at 870ks with 3 BR plus office which can be a 4th BR for some.

Question is: how often do sellers fail to find a replacement?

We had another offer accepted in the spring and the sellers had 6-7 bids rejected so our contract expired. Not a huge deal but don't want to waste time if these fail often.

92027: San Pasqual, moderate distress situation, 4BR for 680K under contract. 2 leins to clear, seller will forgo equity to pay off creditor, worse case have to wait for bankruptcy filing. Again no rush, have put funds in escrow with contracted.

Question: anyone have experience with seller clearing leins before a sale? Did creditors co-operate with good faith effort? My understanding is seller will not retain any equity.

As far as overall market, for North County inland zips above, tenants taking rent increases in stride. Low supply indicates can easily rent new unit in 92027. Should be same in 92127 but curious as to new experiences.

Thanks to SDrealtor for keeping the dialog going. Thought to open this topic for those who follow this part of the county. Given the other dialogs have me looking closer to the coast but thse are my 20 yr knowledge base.

Submitted by gzz on August 14, 2020 - 11:04pm.

I don’t follow NCI carefully but I want a hobby farm there when I retire. 5-10 acres, good water, maybe 1 to 1.5m.

Rain maps say Valley Center has the most rain in SD Co. Seems nice to me.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 16, 2020 - 11:10am.

Thx for starting another thread and I love that we are talking about RE more everyday. First house cleaning - I'm sdrealtor. The other guy showed up about 4 months after me and copied my name before moving out of state. Im the original and while I took a break for several years the last man standing.

92127 is red hot and maybe the hottest Ive run into. Good for you getting one under contract and hopefully they are looking for their next home elsewhere. Sellers usually find a place but with inventory as tight as it is its hard to predict. You can always extend but your biggest risk is a few comps close much higher than your contract price. In that case the seller may just let your contract lapse so they can come back on the market at a higher price. Hope it all works out for you.

My experience with seller liens is that the creditors will generally cooperate and moreso in times like this. I had a listing about 10 years ago where the sellers wife embezzled from her employer and went to jail. The employer had liens on the house and the husband (had no idea what his wife was doing) wanted to get out and start his life over. I had to deal with employers attorney and found him tough but reasonable. We got it settled.

Lastly while you may have property in 92078 it has really become Baja Carlsbad the last 15 years and is more associated with the coast these days than inland. I dont know that I would even put it with 92069 anymore as SM has become very bifurcated. Its not quite the coast but with all the new upscale tract homes its definitely no longer looked at in the category as Escondido.

Speaking of Escondido what a diverse community. It kinda reminds me of Oceanside in that rather than being a single place it is 4 or 5 very different places. The addition of Harmony Grove only increased that diversity of housing types.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 16, 2020 - 11:13am.

gzz wrote:
I don’t follow NCI carefully but I want a hobby farm there when I retire. 5-10 acres, good water, maybe 1 to 1.5m.

Rain maps say Valley Center has the most rain in SD Co. Seems nice to me.

VC is quite hot and not easy to get. The grade road up from Escondido is among the most dangerous roads in the area. It is very country in mindset up there. With that said there are beautiful spots, lots of land and reasonable prices for those that value what it has to offer. Friend of a friend planted a vineyard and they made their first vintage last year.

Submitted by Escoguy on August 16, 2020 - 3:51pm.

SDrealtor

Thanks those are thoughtful insights and for clarifying about yourself.

I've been on this blog off and on since at least 2013. I used to read housing inventory which I think OCrenter used to do.

Kind of amazing to see everything that has happened and I credit Rich for giving all of us a resource that can help build substantial wealth at a relatively young 51 in a relatively short period of a decade. So am thankful for all useful input even though there were many trolls and doubters throughout the years.

The seller from 92127 is being pragmatic and looking in south Escondido and other areas outside 92127 with her realtor. So refreshing as some tenants are very specific about the areas they want to live in. She has a budget of 1.1M and wants a 10K ft lot for a pool and there are a few that fit that criteria that I think she will go for at least one in coming days. So hopefully the lapse situation doesn't occur.
Target ROE is 13% for 92127 with 2% long term appreication (since 2005 factored). Might do better if hits recent 4-5% trend.

It's good to see a reasonable seller realizing when it is time to make a life/lifestyle move. I've always been fascinated with 92127 and feel fortunate to have one there already but the spring bidding war for a 3BR left me with an odd feeling. The final buyer was effectively prepaying for what I thought was 2+ years of appreciation.

Two of my rentals are in 92027 (both 4BR SFH) rent from $3500 to $4000.

After the leins clear on new one, expect it to be on the market for 1-2 weeks or less at $3500. Gives at 7.5% ROE on 25% down preappreciation. With 2% apprecitaion, ROE at 15%.

Often suprised by how solid tenants are. Retired physician from Kaiser, 20+ plus UCSD nurse with union protection, NATO military contractors on 3-5 year contracts, young tech couples earning 6 figures each. Younger will eventually graduate to ownership I'm sure but in general less turnover than expected when started out.

I am often suprised by the relatively unknown pockets of higher end homes with views in Escondido. Yes it's a different feel from 92127 (not a master planned community like 4S) but sometimes more space and a view are the way to go.

We have looked in Harmony Grove and the potential tenant didn't want to be that far out and ended up getting his budget increased by almost $1000 (25% increase) since his first recon trip in Dec so he was able to get closer to his Poway office. Yes Covid delayed things that much and the rental market changed that much in 8 months for some corporate clients.

Well noted about 92078, ours in in Silvercrest so a little further inland but still positively suprised by the pacing of the comps there. Tenant has strong attachement to the house due to family history and is a touch below market at rent but works reasonably well.

Looking forward to continuing this discussion: found this link today from redfin.

https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center/

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 17, 2020 - 9:19pm.

It sounds like that 92127 seller should be able to find something and hope they do. Also agree that there are some high quality tenants out there for nice SFR's in many areas.

Silvercrest is an interesting project. Was sold a prior peak and decimated during downturn. There were some amazing deals there and hope you got one. Things seem to have fully recovered there.

Submitted by Escoguy on August 19, 2020 - 7:06pm.

92127 seller: Her offer was accepted today.

I'm glad she's got good advice to get the house she wants and make the win/win.

We had a contingent contract in 92127 4BR for 820K near Arriba Linda in early March but the sellers kept getting their (6 plus) offers rejected. We could never figure out if they were just outbid or if the contingency drove things.

Yes Silvercrest, you are spot on, got hit really hard in downturn. I didn't buy at the bottom but in 2014 after some recovery from person who bought the shortsale.

In the meantime the 3400 sf home has gone from 580K to 800K+.

So yes full recovery.

So now we wait and monitor the rental situation in 4S. Seemed to be good movement this weekend with 3-4 in our range coming off the market.

It does amaze me that zillow lets the odd rental listing be stale (300 days on market) which messes up the data and wastes time with bad data.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 20, 2020 - 4:28pm.

Congrats and hope it all goes well.

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