North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by profhoff on April 27, 2021 - 9:25am.

Sdrealtor wrote

sdrealtor][quote=profhoff wrote:

I wouldn't discount that new arrivals will have friends. Friends that will visit. Friends that will look around and ask themselves why am I doing that when I could be doing this?

Indeed.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 27, 2021 - 11:15am.

profhoff wrote:
$400k over list. Huge lot, pano ocean. Vintage leucadia build your dream house entry price now $2.7m.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1002-Hymettus-Ave-92024/home/4065194?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

I should reach out to the new owner. I have the perfect furniture for that house. I inherited my parents 1950's Herman Miller furniture bought from store in NYC and well cared for all these years. i even have the original sales reciepts. Eames and George Nelson stuff. Its amazing

Submitted by profhoff on April 27, 2021 - 3:45pm.

$2m for Portofino conveniently located ON the freeway. Now I've seen it all. Will they get it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13297...

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 28, 2021 - 11:11am.

profhoff wrote:
$2m for Portofino conveniently located ON the freeway. Now I've seen it all. Will they get it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13297-Portofino-Dr-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16765530_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

This is the one that puts my jaw on the floor. These are least expensive detached homes in this area. They are condominium ownership as land is owned in common. This is close to where the landslide was a decade ago. Kinda changes everything

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3301-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 28, 2021 - 11:31am.

Update time along the NCC. TNumbers for week ended yesterday

New listings 23 - a little better and hopefully more to come as end of school year approaches. I know of a neighbor thats waiting for that but

New Pendings of 35 - plenty of demand and peak demand around the corner

Thats a -12 for the week.

Closed sales at 30 -

Price reductions at 1

Total houses for sale 48 with median of $1.97M.

Prices just keep going. Like the one above Im seeing homes in what were the least expensive neighborhoods in 92009 going in the 1.1M+ range. Pre COVID it was possible to get into my neighborhood under $1M, now its starts around 1.3. At this pace we will be Bay Area pricing in another year or two with a nice 4BR tract home $2M+. Not gonna say it will happen but not gonna say otherwise at this point

Current reports for SD say 21% y-o-y appreciation but that includes condos which have not kept up with detached. Market is up 30% for detached homes many places

Submitted by profhoff on May 4, 2021 - 9:48am.

Seller cracking. $100k knocked off. Clearly buyers aren't THAT stupid...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/356-...

Submitted by sdduuuude on May 4, 2021 - 7:17pm.

profhoff wrote:
$2m for Portofino conveniently located ON the freeway. Now I've seen it all. Will they get it?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13297-Portofino-Dr-Del-Mar-CA-92014/16765530_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

Yeah, but it's in the slow lane.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 5, 2021 - 12:41pm.

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday

New listings 26 - a little better and hopefully more to come as end of school year approaches. Hoping we are over 30 this time next week

New Pendings of 33 - plenty of demand and peak demand around the corner

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 46 -

Price reductions at 1

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $1.86M.

Big weeks ahead. If inventory is gonna build its gotta start now. More inventory is only thing that could slow down pricing

Last year I sold the only house in my hood under $1M ($995k)and maybe the last one we will ever see. It was one of the smallest and during the height of the pandemic shut down with tenants in place so it was sold as-is and blind to buyer. Prices ranged from $1M to 1.5M last year. Lowest sale this year is $1.275 for a bigger one in impaired location and at best fair condition. Its pretty much 1.3 and up now here. Prices are now $1.3M to 1.9M with $2m sales in sight for the right home. How did we get here?

Submitted by svelte on May 5, 2021 - 3:04pm.

It's just total nuts all over. I just checked, my house in San Marcos is up more than 30% in one year. In. Sane.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 5, 2021 - 10:20pm.

Agree. I've been saying we are up 30% y-o-y even though the stats don't show it yet

Submitted by gzz on May 6, 2021 - 12:44pm.

Zillow says:

"Home values in 92024 have increased 12.3 % (↑) over the past 12 months."

That seems a bit too low, but it doesn't look close to 30% either.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 6, 2021 - 1:36pm.

Its wrong though I dont think they have gone up quite as much as S Carlsbad which enjoys newer and bigger homes that are honey to Bay Area bees

Here you go. 8 months. House turned over for 22% more. I dont think they even ever moved in. No changes made. Had they sold four months earlier last year it would've been a $100K less.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7141-...

Here's another. House sold in Jan 2020 but April 2020 price would have been no different. Resold April 2021 for 29% more. No changes made to this one either.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3280-...

Prices are up around 30% year over year around me. Dont care what Zillow says

Submitted by gzz on May 10, 2021 - 4:21pm.

That Jan 2020 Carlsbad price seems suspect as a reflection of the market then. Seems REALLY nice in size, lot, location for 1.34m, even for 1/2020.

The 1.34M price is also only 6% higher than the June 2018 price. So this gain of 28.7% during a 15 month period (still not 30% YoY) came after a period of only a 6% gain over the prior 18 months.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 11, 2021 - 8:40pm.

Actually not a great lot or location for that neighborhood which I know well and have sold good ones there. I've sold this floor plan also and it's got a few wonky issues with it. That was an average lot with a noisy pocket park behind it. It had little usable yard. One of my good friends sold It and they were lucky to get 1.34 then. It struggled a bit to sell the first time which makes the second sale even MORE extraordinarily

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 12, 2021 - 11:05am.

Update time along the NCC. Numbers for week ended yesterday. Inventory not building much here either.

New listings 29 - at least number held up from last week but really hoping for a lot more to help get prices under control

New Pendings of 33 - plenty of demand and we are pretty much at peak demand.

Thats a -4 for the week.

Closed sales at 33 -

Price reductions at 5

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $1.995M.

Prices still feel 30% higher year over year though not reflected in stats yet as data is a lagging indiocator. The homes are still in escrow that will verify that firmly. One year ago my home was on Zillow at 1.165M and today its at 1.415.When neighbor house closes in a week or so mine should go up at least $150K if not a lot more. It could literally show up around 40% y-o-y. Its been a crazy year

Last 2 weeks the 3 highest closed sales are $5.7M, $7M and $8M! And 5 closed sales between $3M and $4M. This is not your parent's North Coutny

Submitted by Andrew32 on May 13, 2021 - 11:42am.

40% seems reachable at this pace. Our small new development community in 92011 switched from priority list to competitive bidding and I can tell you that bids (not even winning ones) for our floor plan are coming in 15%+ higher now than what we paid in December when we purchased at a set price.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2021 - 11:46am.

Congrats on getting in while you could. Remember you posting before and hopefully road completion is minimal impact

Submitted by Andrew32 on May 13, 2021 - 11:58am.

Road impact hasn’t been bad at all. It was nicer before it opened but we knew what was coming. We’ll see how busy it gets once everyone starts going back to the office and everyone in Bressi Ranch realizes it’s now their fastest way to the 5 south.

Submitted by profhoff on May 13, 2021 - 4:04pm.

Our Waters End house in SW C'bad hit the MLS yesterday. Video comes tomorrow. We'll see how it goes:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/6983-...

Submitted by svelte on May 13, 2021 - 4:43pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Actually not a great lot or location for that neighborhood which I know well and have sold good ones there. I've sold this floor plan also and it's got a few wonky issues with it. That was an average lot with a noisy pocket park behind it. It had little usable yard.

At first blush it does seem nice until I look at it a bit more.

The grass in the front yard where the street bends...see all the bright green patches? Those are two or three dozen spots where neighborhood dogs have peed. At the center of each of those spots will be brown dead grass. The owner will have to patch that over and over again, endlessly. Very strange since there is a pocket park just a little farther down the road.

And if you look closely, someone has photoshopped that grass to make it look better. What we see there must be an improved version of reality. Yikes.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2021 - 5:50pm.

yeah it’s funny somebody looks at a couple pictures and Google maps and thinks they know as much as I do when I’ve been inside the actual house, sold houses in the neighborhood, driven by that house hundreds of times and watched it sit on the market the first time when everything around it was selling much quicker and selling it full price. That said there’s nothing wrong with it it’s just average at best for what it is

The communities up around here really are my wheelhouse. I’ve lived here almost 30 years and sold real estate for most of that. I watched all these houses get built. I follow almost every single one that comes on the market. Suffice to say when I express an opinion on a specific property around here it comes with a very high degree of confidence. And the best deal that anyone got on one of the prime properties and locations in that tract during the last down turn? My clients on 0.4 acre mostly usable with a killer pool backyard in quiet location with sunny southern exposure for under 1 million. It would go over two million today. I'd put it head to head over any other sale in that neighborhood over the last 13 years.

Submitted by svelte on May 13, 2021 - 8:22pm.

Reading back over my comment, sounds like I dissed the house over the grass...I just went off on a tangent.

You're right, basically a good house and location. Floor plan isn't for me but I don't blame anybody for buying it.

The floor plans in my neighborhood are top notch, the designer put a lot of thought into them and they are very live-able, yet there are some nearby homes that go for 5% more for the same SF. Floor plans aren't near as good, but they have all the eye candy out front. I guess what it boils down to is I view the world differently than most people. Sometimes that helps me, sometimes it hurts me.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 13, 2021 - 9:45pm.

Fwiw I was more referring to gzz commenting on the house and my opinion of the value and appreciation. Had no issues with your comment

Submitted by ncsd760 on May 14, 2021 - 2:46pm.

Shocked at the appreciation of some of the "move-up" LCO homes. The one on Cte. Panorama backing to powerlines came with landscaping new and had no phenomenally crazy builder updates. Yes it has changed a few hands in about ten years but circa 2011-2012 those homes were usually 575k-725k(for models and some of that 2889sf floorplan) new and some of the ranches were low-mid 500s. Wild that that home just closed for 1.45M. Same for the one on Ste. Destino for $1.38. That one had better upgrades but probably more road noise and weird landscape.

Same thing for Cte Brezo. Back in the day that doesn't feel long ago (but evidently is) half that street was a short sale for low 7s and the original owner already did your landscaping. Road noise sure but this was even before the shopping center was done. And then Cir. Sequoia was steadily 900-1M +/- 100k on either end given REO/short sale/ocean view. Which felt like a big amount of money then.

Just wild how times changed.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 14, 2021 - 4:10pm.

Ok the one Ive been waiting for just closed.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2360-...

This house shows on Zillow as 1.2M May 2020. Honestly Zillow was wrong and this time last year more like 1.25M maybe even 1.3M. I can hit this house with a pitching wedge from my driveway. BTW, its not 6BR (the first owner spent $1,000 enclosing the upstairs loft) and its not 2800 sq ft (I live in the same house and have the actual builders blue prints for these homes its 2686 sq ft).

At the higher valuation its 42% appreciation and at Zillow valuation its 54% y-o-y. Same floorplan sold 4 times last 9 months between 1.225 and 1.285. Two of those were very nice locations, one was a far inferior location and another was one of the 5 best lots/locations in a community of 1053 homes but needed a good 20K of overgrown tree removal. Starting to getting the comps that prove what I have been talking about the last month or so.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 14, 2021 - 3:56pm.

ncsd760 wrote:
Shocked at the appreciation of some of the "move-up" LCO homes. The one on Cte. Panorama backing to powerlines came with landscaping new and had no phenomenally crazy builder updates. Yes it has changed a few hands in about ten years but circa 2011-2012 those homes were usually 575k-725k(for models and some of that 2889sf floorplan) new and some of the ranches were low-mid 500s. Wild that that home just closed for 1.45M. Same for the one on Ste. Destino for $1.38. That one had better upgrades but probably more road noise and weird landscape.

Same thing for Cte Brezo. Back in the day that doesn't feel long ago (but evidently is) half that street was a short sale for low 7s and the original owner already did your landscaping. Road noise sure but this was even before the shopping center was done. And then Cir. Sequoia was steadily 900-1M +/- 100k on either end given REO/short sale/ocean view. Which felt like a big amount of money then.

Just wild how times changed.

Yup, exactly what Ive been talking about.In 09 my house was likely 725ish and now its 1.6ish. We are up at least 30% year over year in 92009 and now the comps are showing that and more. Most of this change has come since Feb.

BTW Destino houses are nicer than Panorama houses. Its just a much smaller one on Destino here

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 14, 2021 - 4:05pm.

Here's another example.

Less than a year ago it struggled to sell. took 3 months as its under powerlines. Sold for $1.04

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3435-...

Here is exact same model house in same location on same size lot a few doors down also under powerlines. This year...powerlines??? No problem!

It went into escrow 10 months after the one above. It sold in a few days for $1.45M.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3457-...

Thats 39.4% in 10 months. Gotta be one of the hottest markets in the country. No gentrification here

Submitted by Hobie on May 15, 2021 - 6:14am.

profhoff wrote:
Our Waters End house in SW C'bad hit the MLS yesterday. Video comes tomorrow. We'll see how it goes:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/6983-Sweetwater-St-92011/home/6562788

Are there many AirBnb's in your area so close to beach? Can't remember which one but one HOA had very stiff fine $2k for short term rentals. Of course overturned by new law with 30 day min leases.

Submitted by profhoff on May 15, 2021 - 8:14am.

Waters End has 30 day min. I don’t think there are any Airbnb’s close to us that rent for less than 30 days.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 17, 2021 - 4:29pm.

ran some numbers to get a peek at what is coming. the answer looks like its gonna be not more inventory

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