North County Coastal monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by profhoff on March 27, 2021 - 2:51pm.

sdrealtor, what do you mean "they rushed it out and couldve gotten a little more?"

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 27, 2021 - 10:38pm.

will answer via PM

Submitted by profhoff on March 28, 2021 - 8:43am.

Seems high to me. I'm no expert, but listing at $2.4m feels like it's pushing it for a dated little house on a nice flat lot with no view. Plus, the buyer's commission is only 2% - isn't it usually 2.5%?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/835-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 29, 2021 - 1:22pm.

Almost 10K sq ft lot. You can do a lot with that much usable land and its a great street. My next door neighbor's family has been here for generations. Her brother got grandma's house in Encinitas Highlands about 20 years ago. Finally knocked it down 5 years ago and built himself a killer place.

Even on east side of the street you could get a nice view from upstairs and roof top deck. Market will sort it out

Submitted by profhoff on March 31, 2021 - 8:54am.

sdrealtor - this looks like some kind of record for a listing price, yes? An even $12m in the heart of downtown, steps to the beach, views. I don’t think I’ve seen much , if anything, on Neptune at this price point.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/225-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 31, 2021 - 9:11am.

If it's the one I think, a friend/client rented out while his home was getting remediated and remodeled after a flood. Does look aggressive and a high mark but I'd have to check. The highest I remember is the acre oceanfront estate on 4th st a few years but with all the spec homes I'm sure that's been passed. I don't really follow that market

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 31, 2021 - 3:30pm.

So not arecord. Two houses on Neptune were listed for $23.5M as a package. One was sold separately for 8.5M and other still in hands of owner/builder. The record sale was the concrete monstrosity aka Crescent House that was listed for $13M and closed for $11.1M.

The price on this one seems silly to me.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 31, 2021 - 6:35pm.

Update time

New listings 34 - finally seeing some surge in new listings

New Pendings of 41 - buyers surging too!

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 31 -

Price reductions at 7

Total houses for sale 57 with median of $1.9M.

A few anecdotes. Just heard another neighbor is moving. They have a house full of kids and no family. These prices make a triumphant return to the Midwest close to family with a lot of cash in ones pocket look more and more appealing. This is a phenomena I saw a lot of in 03 and 04. My kids and I lost lots of good friends who took the money anbd moved back home. Not my favorite trend but it is what it is.

When I look at for sale inventory in Encinitas over the years, it has traditionally been skewed toward the bread and butter family neighborhoods along the El Camino Real. Not anymore and homes there are getting harder and harder to come by. What I see is 70 to 80% of the inventory in Leucadia, West of the 5 and neighborhoods just east of the 5. These are the neighborhoods dominated by oldtimers and I have never seen so many cashing out. I think some could be the impending prop 19 impact but just as much this area continues to change fundamentally and very quickly as I predicted it would 15 years ago. Wealth is pouring in and old time locals arent loving that. The community character is changing dramatically. Welcome to NewPorsche Beach - San Diego edition

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 31, 2021 - 8:47pm.

I am hearing lots of murmurs of sales myself...

We were original North LCO owners....many people cashing out now who can double their investment even on no-canyon-rim. Anecdotally there are a lot of people who bought new or newer homes here in the late 90's or early to mid 00s for their "young" families...now the kids are moved out or at least in college and mom and dad want to be closer to the beach (or on one floor) and the prices make it worth it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 31, 2021 - 9:50pm.

I am firmly in that demographic as an orginal LCV guy approaching 4X. Between capital gains, liking where I am and hating to move I'll probably be here for the duration. That is unless there is a downturn and something gets built new and right sized for me that makes sense. In that case, Id consider renting this out and picking up another. Im not counting on it.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 1, 2021 - 8:02am.

IMO commuting no longer an issue for a lot of people (WFH is looking more and more like a permanent thing at least in my company).

If Old-timers (even those still in working years say 40-50's) can find say a single Level close by maybe a little inland they may look to cash out.

Just a thought.

LOL "Welcome to NewPorsche Beach - San Diego edition"
I was at an open house in that area about a year or so ago (pre-covid), sales lady asked what I did for a living.
Her reaction was hysterical to me, "Oh you're just an engineer"

LOL I was thinking nice hood, but not that nice.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 1, 2021 - 10:34am.

Just an FYI, in about 20 years of selling real estate I have yet to attend a networking event where somebody didn’t stand up, and ask if anyone had a nice one story house coming up for sale with a view. That is and always will be the most in demand and coveted thing along the coast. I sold one in one of the most coveted neighborhoods for them on the coast, Spinnaker Hills. It was near the bottom and there were still multiple offers on the house. We had a six-figure appraisal shortfall. I told my friend I was worried and he said this is my forever home I don’t care I’m going to be here forever. Over the next 10 years he went through two additions and remodels. It is now spectacular and I can’t even begin to say how right he was with what he did.

Submitted by Andrew32 on April 1, 2021 - 1:15pm.

No view but a friend's 1-story Encinitas home just went for above asking.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1080-...?

2 years and +$300k with no $ put into the home. It was purchased renovated as a flip (check the 2018 sale price).

Submitted by gzz on April 1, 2021 - 2:29pm.

A32, that back yard looks great.

The bathroom looks good too, except those tiny ugly mirrors where there should be a nice modern medicine cabinet.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 1, 2021 - 8:36pm.

Andrew32 wrote:
No view but a friend's 1-story Encinitas home just went for above asking.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1080-...?

2 years and +$300k with no $ put into the home. It was purchased renovated as a flip (check the 2018 sale price).

Sounds about right.

Submitted by profhoff on April 3, 2021 - 9:32am.

sold for $300k over list, pending in 5 days, 1000 sq ft, 70+ years old bungalow, teeny tiny 4000 sq ft lot likely limits potential, but hey, they're not building any more land, especially this close to the beach!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/135-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 3, 2021 - 10:34am.

Pretty much land value. My guess is new modern house with roof top deck in a few years. 4000 sq ft is about all you get that close to the ocean

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 3, 2021 - 11:32am.

sdrealtor wrote:
More of the same

New listings 30 - little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 - still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There's a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.

The house I was waiting for just closed. Here it is.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/3280-...

Went into escrow Dec 2019 and closed mid Jan 2020 for $1.34M.

Went back on the market mid Feb 2021 with no changes made to the house at 1.699M

Closed yesterday for $1.725M just short of $400K appreciation in just over one year.

Thats 28.7% in about a year.

Lets call it 30% y-o-y. Thats not a stretch

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 7, 2021 - 1:10pm.

Update time up in gridlocked nirvana. No let up!

New listings 19 - big drop off. People must be busy working on their taxe....Oh nevermind!

New Pendings of 37 - buyers surging too!

Thats a -18 for the week.

Closed sales at 45 -

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 55 with median of $1.995M.

Quick note about methodology.

I only include new listings that hit the market. Some are entered into the MLS as sold or in escrow before processing so never available to buyers at large.

That is one reason we can have a lot more pendings than new listings without inventory increasing. The other is some sales come back on the market so not new listing. Of course they re sell quickly often for more but that is another matter.

The circus comes to town tomorrow as a home within earshot finally allows showing after a week of "coming soon" status. Im looking forward to my front row seat

Anecdote from the field talking to some high volume agents in CV. The market above $3M is starting to slow down a little while below that it rages on. Up until this year $2M+ was considered high end but now many tract homes go above $2M. Now the high end starts around $3 - 3.5M along the coast

Submitted by gzz on April 8, 2021 - 9:57am.

25% price increases not enough to get people to sell!

I posted this here in May and July 2019, pretty good calls in retrospect:

"I believe in 6 months the market will be about 4% higher. So your $1.2m house will be $48k more expensive.... I’d say buy ASAP."

"A lot of wealth will be generated and saved in 2019. Where will it head, to the stagnant economies with negative yields of Japan/EU? The politically unstable developing world, which lacks strong property rights?

Or the USA, booming, strong yields, stable currency, strongest investor protections, very low taxes on investments/wealth?

A perfectly plausible scenario: yield convergence sends 30-year mortgages below 3%, prices rise sharply, a new bubble forms."

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 14, 2021 - 11:45am.

Update time along the NCC.

New listings 19 - drip....drip....drip

New Pendings of 28 - plenty of demand

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 26 -

Price reductions at 3

Total houses for sale 61 with median of $2.148M.

Enjoyed my front row seat for the two days of showings I was in town. Talked to many of them to get a sense where they were coming from, who they were and who they werent.

Who they werent. They werent foreign buyers or first generation Americans.

Who they were. Families with school age kids from the area looking to move up or from the Bay Area/LA looking for better quality of life and schools. Id guess mostly mid 30's to mid 40's. A few had grown up in SD county and now that work allowed them to WFH they saw this as an opportunity to come back to a place they loved with jobs that previously werent available here.

In my neighborhood of about a thousand homes, nine came on the market in the last 30 days. All sold the within a week with multiple offers. Two fell out of escrow and went right back in. Currently nothing available as we are about to hit the peak demand of early May. Records have already been set and likely more to come.

Submitted by gzz on April 15, 2021 - 1:25pm.

Is the top of point loma underperforming NCC?

New construction from 2017 only priced 24.4% over 2017 price.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-210009287-4...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4410-...?

Really nice interior and exterior both. Only negative is the ugly animal skin rug and the tiny vanity mirrors that lack storage.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 15, 2021 - 3:10pm.

High end is different but yes it looks like it is. You should really set up a Point Loma thread. I set these threads up to be hyper local

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 20, 2021 - 5:52pm.

Update time along the NCC.

New listings 16 - less not more. supply falling

New Pendings of 39 - plenty of demand. demand rising

Thats a -23 for the week.

Closed sales at 25 -

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.1M.

Nearby house is in escrow $200K above asking. There were a bunch of offers and one significantly higher that didnt stick beyond the first couple days. Will be a neighborhood record which is a bit of a shock as the house is average at best for neighborhood but yard is great which speaks to the value of land on the coast. Was out of town last weekend and missed those showings but met buyers when they did inspection. Another young family coming from Bay Area. One has new local job and other will WFH. Pleasant surprise is getting a little more diversity which I appreciate. Closed price will represent well over 30% y-o-y.

Around here May is usually peak demand with relo buyers rolling into town. I dont know if that will be the case this year but there is nothing on the table for them right now with little relief in sight.

Submitted by profhoff on April 20, 2021 - 11:09pm.

I wonder if things will slow down as more and more people get vaccinated and we find our collective way to some kind of back to (new) normal.

Submitted by Hobie on April 21, 2021 - 7:35am.

Prior to this influx of NorCal equity flowing into our local coastal market a lot of new owners needed 2 spouses working at professional jobs to cash flow and buy here.

I'm wondering if we will see other lesser priced tract homes being purchased outright with equity cash thus making it now feasible for one spouse to be stay at home parent.

Be interesting to see if that start trending. ...probably same odds for briefcases coming back!

Submitted by Coronita on April 21, 2021 - 8:08am.

I dont know but im pretty happy im getting a couple from LA that decided spending near $5000/month to live in a small condo in LA isnt as great to spending the same about by renting my place and getting double the square footage and easy access to a great school district. Wanted to sign a longer term lease too. Nice younger couple with excellent credit, low debt, but not quite ready to buy i think.

I do think there is some flifht from CA. Probably people on fixed income or retirees who arent working. But seems like we are picking up a lot of high net worth working people eho decoded theyd rather be here than NYC or LA or SF.

One of my colleagues went to the bay area to work as a staff engineer for one of them big public company. They gave him a comp package well above $300k. He's considering moving back and working remotely. If he did, he could live like a king. He never sold his house and its paid off.

So i think this is great news for the local economy...its bad news for folks like flyer who wont be wealthy alone much longer and be able to rub their noses at others thinking they are better. Lots of people with a lot more money built from noteworthy accomplishments, not from mommy and daddy's silver spoon.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 21, 2021 - 10:59am.

Hobie wrote:
Prior to this influx of NorCal equity flowing into our local coastal market a lot of new owners needed 2 spouses working at professional jobs to cash flow and buy here.

I'm wondering if we will see other lesser priced tract homes being purchased outright with equity cash thus making it now feasible for one spouse to be stay at home parent.

Be interesting to see if that start trending. ...probably same odds for briefcases coming back!

Many if not most of those coming are both working by choice as well educated professionals. But who knows? I'll keep my eyes open for an increase in stay at home dad's. Could be a trend to watch

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 21, 2021 - 11:01am.

profhoff wrote:
I wonder if things will slow down as more and more people get vaccinated and we find our collective way to some kind of back to (new) normal.

I wouldn't discount that new arrivals will have friends. Friends that will visit. Friends that will look around and ask themselves why am I doing that when I could be doing this?

Submitted by profhoff on April 27, 2021 - 9:23am.

$400k over list. Huge lot, pano ocean. Vintage leucadia build your dream house entry price now $2.7m.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1002...

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