North County Coastal monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by profhoff on March 20, 2021 - 9:24am.

Hobie - no plan for tracks to go under as in Solana Beach. If I recall correctly, SB got matching money from the government. Ship has sailed for Encinitas. Would be cost prohibitive at this point.

Submitted by gzz on March 22, 2021 - 12:44pm.

92107 inventory up to 18 after briefly going under 10. Sales, new listings, and prices all are strong.

Tortillas Flats was a working class Mexican American area 20 years ago if I remember an old article about it correctly.

Submitted by profhoff on March 22, 2021 - 1:49pm.

Wow! Pending in 4 days and sold for 16% over list - a cool $450k on top of list for one of the big bombers in Encinitas Ranch. It's my impression that ocean views can basically name their tunes. (cf Fulvia which still has our collective heads exploding)

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/690-...

Submitted by DaCounselor on March 22, 2021 - 4:36pm.

Fantastic thread.

I've been bullish on SD coastal RE for about 30 yrs and believe for much of that period it's been a pretty good value. How would I describe it now? I would just plagiarize from you all on this thread who have used the following adjectives:

Stunning
NUTS
Ridiculous
Relentless
Astounding
Skyrocketing
Crazy
Insane
Shocking
Raging

Yeah, that about sums it up.

Also, unsustainable in my view, but when and how will it end? You got me.

It's a beautiful place with an amazing lifestyle, glad to have my piece(s) of the pie. Share the sad sentiment of families being priced out. Sad to see friends depart for OR, AZ and TX. But like Stovetop Stuffing, I'm stayin'.

Keep the thread going its a good one!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 22, 2021 - 5:04pm.

gzz wrote:
92107 inventory up to 18 after briefly going under 10. Sales, new listings, and prices all are strong.

Tortillas Flats was a working class Mexican American area 20 years ago if I remember an old article about it correctly.

more like 30 + years but still is to some extent. They leave one by one but very slowly

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 22, 2021 - 5:06pm.

profhoff wrote:
Wow! Pending in 4 days and sold for 16% over list - a cool $450k on top of list for one of the big bombers in Encinitas Ranch. It's my impression that ocean views can basically name their tunes. (cf Fulvia which still has our collective heads exploding)

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/690-Lynwood-Dr-92024/home/6538748?utm_source=myredfin&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=recommendations_update&riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD01NDAyOSZwPWxpc3RpbmdfdXBkYXRlc19yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmYT1jbGljayZzPXJlY29tbWVuZGF0aW9ucyZ0PXZpZXdfZGV0YWlscyZlbWFpbF9pZD01NDAyOV8xNjE2NDQ0NzM3XzYmdXBkYXRlX3R5cGU9NyZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuNTc3NyZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTEyOTM5MTM1NSZwcm9wZXJ0eV9pZD02NTM4NzQ4JnBvc2l0aW9uX251bWJlcj0y

$3M in ER boggles the mind. Dont know what more to say but this much demand at these prices cant be coming from locals. It just cant

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 22, 2021 - 5:08pm.

DaCounselor wrote:
Fantastic thread.

I've been bullish on SD coastal RE for about 30 yrs and believe for much of that period it's been a pretty good value. How would I describe it now? I would just plagiarize from you all on this thread who have used the following adjectives:

Stunning
NUTS
Ridiculous
Relentless
Astounding
Skyrocketing
Crazy
Insane
Shocking
Raging

Yeah, that about sums it up.

Also, unsustainable in my view, but when and how will it end? You got me.

It's a beautiful place with an amazing lifestyle, glad to have my piece(s) of the pie. Share the sad sentiment of families being priced out. Sad to see friends depart for OR, AZ and TX. But like Stovetop Stuffing, I'm stayin'.

Keep the thread going its a good one!

Hey neighbor hope you are enjoying the hood. One thing I will say is having been here for 22 years now, seeing friends leave for elsewhere is nothing new. In 04 and 05 my kids and I lost many from here who moved back home or somewhere nice but cheaper. For some the temptation of the "max profitz" are just too big to ignore.

Submitted by profhoff on March 23, 2021 - 5:39pm.

LOL. One good sale deserves another. Coming soon - the single story on Fulvia! barely a view. A steal at $3.89m. Seller paid $2.063m May 2019. HAHAHAHA
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/356-F...

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 23, 2021 - 9:08pm.

Good GOD is this comical. And not even nice landscaping....

I may be biased since I always had a soft spot for Lynwood houses and didn't quite have the means to get one at the time, but that one that sold was beautiful inside. $3.25 M beautiful, however? I don't think so.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 23, 2021 - 9:24pm.

profhoff wrote:
LOL. One good sale deserves another. Coming soon - the single story on Fulvia! barely a view. A steal at $3.89m. Seller paid $2.063m May 2019. HAHAHAHA
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/356-Fulvia-St-Encinitas-CA-92024/318293976_zpid/

There is nothing hotter than a one story with a view. Nothing! It's why Spinnaker Hill Prime lots are so coveted.

Bear in mind, even though it closed in May 2019 it likely was under contract a year or so earlier

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 23, 2021 - 10:24pm.

Update time and Im in a very good mood! Saw a realtor friend touring a nearby property very close to me with the homeowner and Id love to have a new, different neighbor there:)

New listings 23 - big drop in new listings

New Pendings of 36 - no slowing in sight!

Thats a -13 for the week.

Closed sales at 16 - suffering from lack of inventory

Price reductions at 6 (pretty much all high dollar stuff that was hard to price)

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $1.709M. A lot of higher price stuff sold last week which pulled the median down.

(Footnote:last week I originally reported 42 last week and that was a typo I fixed as it was 52)

Lack of inventory continues to be a big problem here and everywhere. Anecdotally im seeing signs that more is on the way near me between coming soon listings and my grapevine. Owners are taking note of these prices and it should continue shaking more loose. Nothing would make me happier than seeing one in particular change hands.

In another sign of how much things have changed up here, in the last week 2 homes sold for $3M and 2 more for $4M! Even more astounding 3 homes hit the market in Encinitas this week with asking prices of $6.9M, $7.9M and $8M. There's another at $6M about to hit the market.

Submitted by evolusd on March 24, 2021 - 7:54am.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7008-...

$791/sf - insanity. I don't understand the pricing of this pocket of homes.

Just north across Aviara where I live the 90's vintage homes go for around $400/sf (much bigger so I get a spread in ppsf, but not this much). https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6956-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2021 - 9:42am.

Sold one there last year for a friend that I was able to help move up big time crossing aviara parkway. Went from about 2000 SF on a busy street no view to well over 3000 sq ft on quiet cull de sac overlooking one of the signature golf holes. And I did it with a contingent offer, impossible now but still basically a miracle then. That's one of my top five most memorable transactions

The answer is land. About 70% of values around here is in the land so ppsf calculations are often a folly. Bigger lots unencumbered by an HOA. Makes it unique in aviara and the location is next to the lagoon which people love to walk. May head over myself today to do just that!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 24, 2021 - 9:46am.

Unintended consequences,

IMO Fastest way to lose home value is HOA.

Submitted by profhoff on March 24, 2021 - 10:25am.

The "shangri-la" on Sheridan (one of the high priced listings in Leucadia that sdrealtor was referring) just listed at $6.9m.

It sold around 8 MONTHS ago for $5.399m. That's right. Let's increase the price 28% in less than a year, because, why not?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/2054...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2021 - 10:55am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Unintended consequences,

IMO Fastest way to lose home value is HOA.

Really depends upon if they provide value. I think mine does. Great facilities,, lots of open space, well run and low cost for what we get that's been very stable for over twenty years

Submitted by profhoff on March 24, 2021 - 11:01am.

HOAs can be annoying, but the upside is that it prevents people parking on their lawns, neglecting to pull their weeds, and other eyesores that hurt property values.

So, on balance, they serve a purpose, but they aren't for everybody.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2021 - 11:08am.

profhoff wrote:
The "shangri-la" on Sheridan (one of the high priced listings in Leucadia that sdrealtor was referring) just listed at $6.9m.

It sold around 8 MONTHS ago for $5.399m. That's right. Let's increase the price 28% in less than a year, because, why not?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/2054-Sheridan-Rd-92024/home/3783690

Properties like that much harder to value and more negotiable. The fact homes are being listed and selling in these ranges speaks volumes as to how much has changed

And agree on HOAs. All depends. After 22 years of being asked to volunteer for something I finally did and I'm a member of the architecture committee that reviews submissions to make improvements or changes that impact the exterior of house or property

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 24, 2021 - 4:00pm.

Just seems when you look at two housing tracts built at about the same time in same general area with similar houses, the tract without HOA sells at a higher price from what I have seen.

Double difference if mello roos as well.

It would be interesting (because generally there is little choice when you buy a house), if there was a poll on how many living in an HOA wish they could opt out.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2021 - 4:28pm.

So many factors involved that it is hard to generalize like that. I like having someone oversee things. I love access to trails, pool, spa, gym, tennis, parks and more. I think most in my neighborhood would agree as those that dont self select out. It really depends upon the HOA and how much they try to control. I find ours very even handed

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 24, 2021 - 5:30pm.

OK I can see some benefits to some HOA's ( My mothers Condo sits on a golf course I could use any time "hmm seems I never have use it but it is nice to look at).

Most HOA's just have maybe a park if your lucky.

Seems I remember a time (being an old fart) when a lot of that stuff was provided by the City out of your 1% tax rate lol.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2021 - 11:24pm.

I may be wrong but always thought the 1% went to the state. it's everything above that which goes to local governments

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 25, 2021 - 5:25pm.

Not gonna call this a shift in the market but watching as closely as I do, Im seeing something I have not in a while. Im starting to see a steadier, bigger stream of nice 1st or 2nd level move up homes hit the market. Not the entry level but 4 - 5 BR with 3 - 4 baths and 2400 to 4000 sq ft nice homes hit the market in noticeably larger numbers. It should show up the data soon.

This will be a good test for the market. Lately we have had them dribbling out with a big group of buyers fighting over them. Now there will start to be more for them to choose from and we will begin to see how deep the buyer pool is. I think the market will absorb them easily for the time being.

The question is do the flow turn into a torrent? Anecdotally Ive seen some coming up from people I wouldve thought were dug in for a long time. Prices have risen to levels that are starting to get the attention of long term residents who may be tempted. One near and dear to me is about to hit the market and Im very happy it is. I'll just leave it at that

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 26, 2021 - 10:28am.

Is this your way of saying you're moving sdr?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 26, 2021 - 11:54am.

ncsd760 wrote:
Is this your way of saying you're moving sdr?

My moving plans at this point would involve a pinebox and me in it! More like my least favorite neighbor:)

Sadly we lost a NCC real estate icon to those in biz this week. Peter B was a true character, one of a kind and life of the party kind of a guy. Everyone whose been around La Costa RE has a great Peter B story. One day I'll share mine here

Submitted by profhoff on March 26, 2021 - 12:20pm.

DMH eye-poppin' price - original split level floor plan sells for $356k (27%) over list. Pending in 7 days, so I guess that's how long it takes to sift through the offers and do a round of best and final?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/13883-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 26, 2021 - 1:08pm.

It was listed low and that's a nice size usable lot. Basically land value

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 26, 2021 - 8:16pm.

150k over asking. Front and back landscaping (and upgrades) were nothing crazy except for the kitchen where they swapped the fridge with the pantry though the lot is one of the better ones on the rim. There are ones facing due west with an even bigger and clearer view that I'm sure can go for 2mm+ now.

I think this is a record sale for that section of LCO.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7095-...

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 26, 2021 - 8:16pm.

150k over asking. Front and back landscaping (and upgrades) were nothing crazy except for the kitchen where they swapped the fridge with the pantry though the lot is one of the better ones on the rim. There are ones facing due west with an even bigger and clearer view that I'm sure can go for 2mm+ now.

I think this is a record sale for that section of LCO.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7095-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 27, 2021 - 1:41pm.

ncsd760 wrote:
150k over asking. Front and back landscaping (and upgrades) were nothing crazy except for the kitchen where they swapped the fridge with the pantry though the lot is one of the better ones on the rim. There are ones facing due west with an even bigger and clearer view that I'm sure can go for 2mm+ now.

I think this is a record sale for that section of LCO.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7095-Sitio-Caliente-92009/home/22420814

Know it well. Sold house next door twice (new and resale) and two a few doors down in each direction. Was actually there last night drinking wine with my clients that are now dear friends talking about it as those folks were packing up. This one actually had the entire kitchen redone, all new everything. I think they rushed it out and couldve gotten a little more. Not a great lot for one on the rim but still a good number for small lot and no pool which the prime view ones have. Agree some would go well over $2M now

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