North County Coastal monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 12, 2021 - 12:55pm.

One of the One Channel homes just closed $65K over top end of range price

Submitted by profhoff on March 12, 2021 - 2:33pm.

No doubt it was the restaurant quality sound system!

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 12, 2021 - 3:19pm.

And the tiniest plan there is now coming soon for $1.9 on the no-view side right up against the driveway to the custom homes...odds it hits $2m or above?

Also wonder how much the new LCV original condition timewarp goes for. What's stopping a fully gutted version of that for going for $1.8?

All wild to think about.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 13, 2021 - 12:13pm.

I just dont see that getting to $2M and the 1.9 looks like a stretch to me. Last 1 story sale was late Summer at 1.9 for the bigger floor plan and with nice pool added. That was about 200K more from builder plus cost of pool. That one had some saxony noise but this one has no yard and no view. Id go 1.75 but who knows the bounds of the insanity right now particuarly for a newer one story in Encinitas relatiely close to beach.

Im gonna go with 1.575-1.6 for that LCV one. I think VLN is one of the nicest streets here and to have a nice size yard like that on that side of the street adds value. I also prefer the Plan 3 over the Plan 4 up there as a better design.

Its just nuts and I dont love it when prices get this high. This neighborhood is so attractive to young families and having prices as high as they are tends to bring in older families and folks. The young families really should be the life blood of this place.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 13, 2021 - 4:40pm.

I agree that prices this high really change the character in some of the tracts myself and people who grew up here would consider "family areas". Those areas are made for young families with kids and I don't see people like that being able to buy in here as much. Some of the original LCO and LCV families got those as first or second homes (as families) ...teachers etc could live in those communities...just unsure what that dynamic is now.

Even looking at areas like Village Park or Rancho Ponderosa where we had "starters" those prices are so high for young families. Where do the younger folks go ?

Submitted by Jim the Realtor on March 14, 2021 - 10:01am.

Good for you, profhoff!

Submitted by profhoff on March 14, 2021 - 11:39am.

Thanks, JtR! It's been a wild ride. Super glad you convinced us not to bail on the Waters End house 3 days before closing when we discovered they wrecked the floors dragging out the fridge. Remember that?

Submitted by profhoff on March 14, 2021 - 11:40am.

Hurry! Reviewing offers in 7 hours and 25 minutes! This Cardiff twinhome sold 8 months ago for $1.565m. Now offered for $1.95m. Renovated BEFORE the 8 month sale...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Cardiff/2129-M...

Insane.

Submitted by profhoff on March 14, 2021 - 1:08pm.

ncsd760 - have you seen this one that just popped up on Fulvia? $4.6m. 1/2 acre. Still time to customize! No vu. Doesn't it flood there?

https://www.compass.com/listing/437-fulv...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 14, 2021 - 3:09pm.

NCSD
Yes its quite the quandry. I bought my first townhome inSeagate Village and moved up to LCV 20 years ago. My neighbors here at the time included firemen, park rangers and my kids Kindergarten teacher at ECC. Thats just not possible anymore for most.

In the absence of super high paying tech jobs or family help I think the answer comes down to two key things. First and foremost, your first purchase is the key and its best if possible to make that one in a downturn. Then you are on the train and can ride values back up building equity you can leverage 4X. Second, while it was possible to get to that that forever home in 2 steps its likely gonna take 3 or even 4 to get there. The game has changed and its possible for young families to get there. They just need to be patient and be well advised.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 14, 2021 - 3:10pm.

profhoff, the market feels like its popped about 20% since last Summer many places in SD

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 14, 2021 - 4:11pm.

profhoff wrote:
ncsd760 - have you seen this one that just popped up on Fulvia? $4.6m. 1/2 acre. Still time to customize! No vu. Doesn't it flood there?

https://www.compass.com/listing/437-fulvia-street-encinitas-ca-92024/735638314903305793/

Yes this area definitely floods and a cynic in me wants to say there may be freeway noise from this spot as well. The home isn't even that big to be honest, and I'd rather have a simple 1 bedroom ADU and perhaps more yard?

Also - the ADU looks mighty close to the butt end of the main house. I would rather the builder just wait for me to decide how big of a ADU unit (and where) I want it....not my speed. Someone will gush over it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 14, 2021 - 5:05pm.

Wow, just looked at that. It that's anything close to 4.5m my client is over 5m

Submitted by profhoff on March 14, 2021 - 5:28pm.

Fasten your seat belts. We are in for a wild spring!

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 14, 2021 - 7:47pm.

Sitio Corazon wants a 100k pop since July. I think they'll get it and then some. $839k new in Oct 2012.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/7141-...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 15, 2021 - 12:44am.

FWIW, new comes without paint, window treatments, ladndscape/hardscape etc. Figure minimum another 100K plus. This probably goes 1.5ish

Submitted by Jim the Realtor on March 15, 2021 - 9:32am.

>Remember that?

Yes, profhoff and I also remember the refinished hardwood floors which should be an attractive feature for resale. Today's buyers gladly pay a premium for perfection. Aim high.

Submitted by profhoff on March 15, 2021 - 10:01am.

Good times. This was "coming soon" for a day at $1.99m, but I guess the LA had so many desperate calls, they decided to list it after a quick teaser day, but not before adding another $100k to the price, just for fun!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1059...

Submitted by profhoff on March 15, 2021 - 7:18pm.

This is so much fun. DMH oldie but apparently renovated goodie listed a few days ago at $2.5m, but I guess the LA realized the pricing error and added a couple hundred thousand because why not? Now a steal at $2.7m...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/14043-...

Submitted by profhoff on March 15, 2021 - 7:20pm.

JtR - aiming as high as the market will allow!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 15, 2021 - 7:32pm.

In this kind of market, aim is less important than having the home ready in great shape and easy to see. Get it on the market a couple days before the weekend, schedule The maximum amount of showings you can on Saturday and Sunday then review offers Monday night. The market will take care of the rest. Just field offers, show the buyers a level of respect and they will take great care of you

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 23, 2021 - 10:09pm.

Welcome to broken record Tuesday here also

New listings 29 - nice to see us get back up to a more reasonable level but nowhere close to what we need

New Pendings of 30 - no slowing in sight!

Thats a -1 for the week.

Closed sales at 18

Price reductions at 4 (pretty much all high dollar stuff that was hard to price)

Total houses for sale back to 52 with median of $1.99M.

A couple thoughts. First as much as I love talking about real estate, I love talking NCC my home for the last 25 years even more. Thanks to the posters profhoff and ncsd760 for joining in the fun and bringing the local color. It is appreciated.

Second, it does seem like we are starting to get a little more inventory particularly on the lower end. Nothing I can put my finger on specifically but just a sense from pouring over the data every day. It would be nice for that to continue and show up in the data too.

As I look over data its rare to see a house sit on the market more than 7 days or to not sell over asking price. Its just that kind of market with no end in sight.

Last, I work all over SD and have to say of everywhere I work we have the best group of agents up here. There are many competent, ethical and expereinced agents up here which I cant say for everywhere. Really the best of the best from my experience

And a quick p.s. If there is a market as hot as the NCC its the 4S/Del Sur market. That one is nuts also

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 18, 2021 - 8:59pm.

This is insane

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/348-F...

3.81 for the worst lot.

Submitted by profhoff on March 18, 2021 - 11:01pm.

Stunning. Pending in 4 days and apparently multiple offers to sell over list.

Maybe this will stimulate long time owners to cash out, though I don’t know where they will go.

Then we could venture a prediction that funky town gets luxe with multi-million dollar renovations. Could be a different place in as little as five years.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 19, 2021 - 11:25am.

We've lived west of 5, east of 101 for 6 years, and the side streets look a lot different already. Every time an older home sells, in 4-5 months it's been relandscaped, given the "modern minimalist touch" (grey modern fixtures, teak wood fence, minimalist frosted glass garage door) and the true beaters are torn down or given a second story.

Even longtime owners are able to sell ranches and bungalows for low 1mms as long as the lot isn't too weird. Same for multifamily. The apartment complex on the corner of hillcrest had tenants leave, was taken to the studs, remodeled. A lot of the apartment complexes on vulcan have come up for sale in the past few years.

Submitted by profhoff on March 19, 2021 - 11:38am.

Now that Streetscape has started, I'm trying to figure out how that will affect Vulcan, the parking for the restaurants on the 101, and the general look and feel of our beloved funkytown.

It's looking like you won't be able to park by the tracks off the 101 and cross the highway to the restaurants.

And I think they are putting fencing up along the tracks except at the roundabouts which means you won't be able to cross the tracks from Vulcan and houses east to get to the restaurants.

True?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 19, 2021 - 12:20pm.

profhoff wrote:
Stunning. Pending in 4 days and apparently multiple offers to sell over list.

Maybe this will stimulate long time owners to cash out, though I don’t know where they will go.

Then we could venture a prediction that funky town gets luxe with multi-million dollar renovations. Could be a different place in as little as five years.

Eucalyptus! 1.7M which is pretty much land value for 10K lot. There you have it

1.5 for remodelled with 2/1 ADU on Clark (affectionately referred to as Tortilla Flats by long time locals) might be even more stunning gentrification

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 19, 2021 - 12:47pm.

I just looked at latest closings and one thing is smacking me in the face. Its the volume of homes selling not only between 1.5 and 2M but between 2 and 4 million along the coast and basically bordered by 56 and 78 to south and North and 15 west to the ocean. Its stunning and could only be happening with a significant influx from markets up north.

Anecdotally on NextDoor two recent LCV asked for places to eat and drink locally after just arriving here. One from Sratoga and the other from Santa Cruz. This is something to see and I wonder how long it will continue. There is no end in sight!

Submitted by Hobie on March 20, 2021 - 5:53am.

Is that area a no train horn zone? Any update as to if they were going to underground the tracks. Seems like no, as the flooding at that little park at 101 and Leucadia. But there was talk a while back and you guys are in the know!

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2021 - 8:54am.

In the middle of a cash out refinance...though at these prices maybe its time to sell and trade into rental properties that cash flow better. While home prices in 92130 have gone bonkers, rent prices arent that insane and renting out a sfh in 92130 is a pain in the ass with pain in thr ass well to do people imho.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/4906...

$250k closing above asking....chump change for bay area folks i guess.

$669/sqft lol.

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