North County Coastal monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 8, 2021 - 4:12pm.

Also proffhoff I know all of those houses! How funny. We considered 1Channel when new at multiple points and were on the Shea interest/priority list. Some terrible lots and some phenomenal ones but isn't that always the story. We tend to be annoyingly picky so did not get an opportunity for a lot we adored though came close. The new zealand style reminded me of Maravu when I first saw them and that neighborhood is special to me.

I love the floorplan of the unpermitted loggia house (the 3273 sf plan - I think "plan three"). I think they also had some ocean view from the front which I liked. Lot of resales on the lower half of the tract off Saxony since new and much fewer up top on the Quail entrance which is about how the interest list went too in terms of demand.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 8, 2021 - 7:13pm.

Thank you both for chiming in and welcome to the neighborhood. I agree with pretty much everything you said.

Ive always considered the various communities of Encinitas and La Costa as pretty much different shades of the same place as we all eat, drink, shop, send our kids to school, see same doctors etc. I've lived in both over the years. But there are definitely a menagerie of folks around here.

Its funny because most of the complaining comes from new arrivals who view this as an upscale, expensive beautiful community while ignoring what is plain to see. This is a funky place and the long timers like it that way. Ive been here almost 30 years but dont consider myself a local and likely never will. Thats my next door neighbor who is 3rd generation Encinitas.

Leucadia is definitely another world than over the hill where I am and I envy you being there. For a variety of reasons (taxes, Ive got one of the bigger lots in LCV and frankly I like it here) Im dug in here. But I would happily reside west of 5 if not for those things. Hope you are enjoying it all!

With all that said, following inventory as closely as I have have for decades it feels like supply is down almost 50% from where it typically is. That is compounded by demand being much higher than ever. I wouldnt read much into any short term fluctuations you see as there are many buyers for every home. I'll continue tracking my numbers as I have for many years and if there is any wind of change I'll see it coming

oh and Ithose prime one channel lots probably went to friends and family of the builder. They always do

Submitted by profhoff on March 8, 2021 - 10:38pm.

Fun thread. When Channel Island opened up we went and got on the list, but were too far down for the list when the first lots off Quail Gardens came online. However, I called every week to see where I was and remarkably plenty of people came on and off that list. And we got offered a lot but didn't like it. Then one day we got a call that the buyer on one of the west facing ocean lots fell through they offered it to us.

The problem was that the useable backyard was tiny compared to the ones on the side with the SW views and it kept getting smaller as they continued to mark the lots. It was the house directly south of what became the fire lane between the Saxony part of the tract and the Quail Gardens part of the tract. Plus, it was a big house and so the little backyard seemed out of balance.

Anyway, we didn't buy it, but it goes to show that persistence can pay off.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2021 - 11:25am.

Yes lots of fun talking about this micro market. I had a couple clients interested in Channel island and went opening day. It was craziest release Ive ever seen. Cars parked all over Quail Gardens and there were traffic cops directing traffic.

To get a house there you had to register very early and be fully pre-qualified by their lender just to get on the list. I think you answered your own question on that one lot also. Overbuilt house on a small lot next to fire road with perceived lack of privacy made it less desireable up on that ridge.

The most premium lots not only have a view but room outside to build outdoor amenities to enjoy it. After that I'd put large non-view lots unimpaired by road noise above a view lot with a very small lot. I did some cross checking and as expected the community has a healthy share of people in real estate, building supplies, lending, building supplies and an attorney that worked for the builder. Its also hard to determine casual relationships to the builder but Im sure there were few also. The higher price point may have kept it from going all that way but there was plenty of that.

I learned this the hard way 15 years ago. I was #1 on the priority list for the Centex tract in LC Oaks and deferred for a specific lot. It was an oversized lot with the house positioned such that it had a good size backyard and an equally sized side yard that had an ocean view but was not priced for that view. Plan was to build kids yard in back and adults yard on the side. When I went to the release it was supposed to be in, I was told it was already gone to "friends & family" of the builder as were some other primo lots. In the long run it was probably better that I stayed put so no love lost there but thats the way the game is played.

Arroyo Vista was probably the most egregious example of that. The builder, Continental was sold mid stream to DR Horten. Continental execs and employees grabbed all the best lots and there were some really big exceptional ones there. Not only that, but knowing they were all gonna buy there they raised the bar on standard upgrades far above anythng seen prior as they knew they would get those for free themselves. Im sure a bunch of em are still hanging out there though many moved on sice making a relative killing when they resold.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 9, 2021 - 2:59pm.

Yes very fun talking about this niche little market and I am glad I finally made an account here after reading these chats for 10 years or so.

I was disappointed with the lot size of some of the due west facing 1 Channel houses as well profhoff. We didn't get a Plan 2 (bigger ranch plan) or Plan 3 and just ended up biting the bullet and moving fully west of 5 but east of the 101 where it is walkable and close to our favorite eats in funky town but a bit quieter than living west of 101. Our house is sub 3000sf but that is fine for us.

sdr we were original LCO residents so I am embarrassingly familiar w the plans and lots though we didn't adore living in LCO for many reasons most of which have to do with the fact that we didn't have elementary age kids when we lived there, we really wanted Encinitas or a more mature/smaller/less sterile La Costa tract, and that we didn't end up liking our lot or plan though we got a killer deal. Those Centex and Davidson center courtyard plans in the "OG" Oaks are lovely and I also like the Arroyo Vista courtyard plan that has a master down.

I think LCV where you are sdrealtor feels infinitely closer to shopping and dining that I personally frequent and the leasing people screwed the La Costa Town Square shopping center with odd stores and generally meh restaurants. Also disappointed by Arterro homes that of course, we considered remembering the Davidson/Starboard hype in the Oaks. 2015 me was not willing to pay low 1mms to back to the butt end of a Super Vons and hear road noise on minuscule lots especially coming from the Oaks and being indifferent about the area.

We actually considered buying the former model of the Arroyo Vista center courtyard plan when it came up for sale in 2015. It had a blank canvas yard to hardscape and drop in a pool. We backed away because we recalled from our Diegueno and OPE days that all the parents park on that entry Arroyo Vista street to drop off and pick up their kids and we are too OCD to handle someone's big Suburban parked in front of our house 2x a day 5x a week. I think that house resold recently. Embarrassed to have followed all these communities closely but it's so interesting to see the area change and a memory trip to recall past purchases/offers/etc.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2021 - 3:39pm.

As I mentioned in MM monitor we are next level here also

New listings 17 - falling off a cliff is not an exageration. We should be seeing an acceleration in new inventory not vice versa this time of year

New Pendings of 34 - massive demand!

Thats a -17 for the week.

Closed sales at 29

Price reductions at 3.

Total houses for sale down to 42 with median of $2.33M.

As I mentioned a house down the street 3/2 2000 SF 1 story built in 99 nicely updated since backing up to open space hit market at $1.2M. This time last year maybe $1.05M for that house. Closed for $1.35M cash with 10 day escrow. While it may be a slight exception thats 30% y-o-y.

Things have sure changed fast around here. This is a very different place than it was which may explain something im starting to see.

There are a lot of older homes in Encinitas/Leucadia that have been in families for decades. They seem to stay that way and sales are fairly rare. As I review the new listings each day I get a sense we are seeing more of those hitting the market than we usually do. There was some elevated turnover in the late 90's but its been fairly quiet for the last 20 years. Maybe we will start to see more of the prime lot older properties hit the market.

Its just an early feeling now but perhaps Im onto something that Im gonna keep following. I'll call it one part astronomical prices to cash out, one part Prop 19 taking away low inherited tax basis and one whopping part we dont like that this place is becoming more and more impacted by rich outsiders. Somethings going on....

Looking at the active inventory most of it is in Encinitas rather than S Carlsbad which is not typical. Of course it is the higher priced stuff that sits on the market a bit longer and thats Encinitas but S Carlsbad is blowing up.

There is 1 detached house in 92011 right now and it is a trustee sale (husband passed away a couple years ago and wife either passed also or incapacitated). Thats basically ZERO on the market.

Things arent much better in the much larger 92009 that is my home. There are 13 on the market of which 6 have been on less than a week. Of the 7 on more than a week 5 are over $2M (two years ago there would be a small handful of sales above $2M each year), one is a BK sale and the other has been off and on due to something going on with seller so hasnt really been available to see. It is extremely rare for a home to last more than a week these days. Those that do are either sorting out a bidding war, very high end where demand is slower or vastly overpriced. I dont think it could be any hotter but Ive saying that and it keeps getting hotter

Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 4:42pm.

ncsd760 - it is so fun to think about all the real estate we've trudged through over the years. We looked for almost 4 years to find the "right" house and I used to joke with our long-suffering agent that she would "fire" us. But we did make offers! And we did get into escrow! We just couldn't get it to stick.

The place we finally bought is east of 5 - but it checks every other box and then some. We realized we really loved Leucadia and "funky town" and didn't want to venture too far.

As soon as renovations are done, we'll be selling our current house. I wonder what the market will look like in May? Will it slow down? Will there be even more frenzy? Realistically, how high can things go? And rates are already creeping up.

What does sdrealtor's crystal ball say about the <$1.5m market in SW Carlsbad?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2021 - 4:51pm.

En Feugo and its not <1.5M. I think I remember which community you live in and one just closed off market for 1.575M at #6992. Not sure if similar to what you have or not but things down there are north of 1.5 now. Interesting also that you mentioned "she" as IIRC your perhaps now prior agent was a he

Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 4:53pm.

I love to see the updates. Here's one that popped my eyes out:

Pending in 4 days and closed for $200k+ over list.

Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 5:05pm.

Agent that sold us the c'bad house 8 years ago was a he. Started working with a diff agent about 4+ years ago once we got serious about finding a "coastal retreat suitable for eventual retirement." She's intimately familiar with the NCC area.

Yeah, 6992 Sweetwater closed for $1.575m and that had the hell buffed out of it. We're a model match, but sellers did a boffo remodel and it sold instantly. That price was a shocker.

But wait, there's more! 616 Saltgrass (bigger model and nice but not as buffed as 6992) just closed for $1.575m - $80k over list. Also went pending quick.

So, with comps like that, I don't see anything listing in here that doesn't start with $1.5Xm, do you?

Late last year, sales were in the $1.4xm range.


Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 5:03pm.

To add to your list sdrealtor of what's going on, you can't leave out the pandemic! I've noticed that places offering office space, good sized backyards, and areas in the house for different functions are moving quickly.

The 'hood I'm in doesn't really have backyards, but the proximity to the ocean is big plus and maybe makes up for the little backyards.

I'll add that our new house is a single story! SCORE.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 9, 2021 - 5:19pm.

Profhoff congrats on coming to Leucadia! A single-story is a score. Water's End is very pretty and I think active families will always want that area because it's walking distance to surf and Pacific Rim is the best Cbad elementary school.

We are in a similar-to-Water's End neighborhood off of Vulcan and very happy. A single level is VERY appealing as we have 2 story.

I think the whole pandemic is what has made lesser LC Oaks houses sell for so much. There are just more rooms and enough yards. Recent sales on Corte Brisa and Sitio Corazon/Sitio Caliente have stunned me. I remember when ColRich was sitting on an inventory of those new in 2011-2012 and begging you to take one.

Also considering we are now in the sport of riffing about individual homes (I loved that Olivenhain one) I am watching 348 Fulvia I don't think the lot was the better one of these by any stretch (weird yard and neighbors above you) but it sold for $2.4 something new not 18 months ago.

Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 6:01pm.

ncsd760, if you live where I think you do, then we came so close to buying there too, though we never made it into escrow in that particular development.

There was one we just loved the look of - we called it the "koi pond" house, but by the time we could get some time to go over to see it, it was in escrow.

It's on the market again and finally went pending though it took a while. there was another one in there that backed up to a house with RVs packed in the backyard and the sellers put some bushes up, but I think it wasn't enough and they gave up trying to sell and are renting it.

That's a great 'hood because it will soon have the roundabout and train crossing. I can't wait to see how it's going to work getting rid of parking along the train tracks on the 101.

In my next post I'll talk about Azure Leucadia - where the eye popper on Fulvia went pending with a RIDICULOUS list price. Just insane.

Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 6:10pm.

We intimately knew Azure Leucadia. I was following all the news about the developer for YEARS and when the last lawsuit finally fell away, I called the developer and begged them to add me to the list. They did and claimed I was "near the top."

We really liked the lone single story on Fulvia but "near the top" doesn't mean "at the top" so the single story went to somebody else. But we had our pick of the rest and decided on the one directly east of the single story. So things are chugging along, we have the contracts, it's all good, and then our landscape guy goes over and gets very worried about the drainage and pipe situation. And if you know Fulvia, it floods at the corner of Fulvia and Hymmetus, so we were already a little worried, even though we weren't at the corner.

Anyway, we passed, and they ended up selling it pretty quick. Ocean views were spectacular from the second story and it was west of 5.

But there wasn't much backyard and the neighbors behind were in your face.

The one on the corner (where it floods) took forever to sell. we drove by last time it rained and you won't believe what the owners of the corner house did - they put in another house in their side/back yard (ADU I guess), completely ruining the look and feel of what would have been our house.

You have to drive by there and look at it.

And the one on the north end of Fulvia is next to the biobasin and also was one of the last to sell. Neighbor impact is insane and that went pending quickly so we have to assume full price or close enough for $3.8m. THAT'S NUTS. FOR $3.8M, who wants that kind of crazy neighbor impact.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 9, 2021 - 6:32pm.

profhoff we actually live in the OTHER newer-off-Vulcan < 3000 square foot tract...though we considered the neighborhood you're speaking of since they were being built at the time and were the comps on our appraisal. There are a few nice lots but the lots felt a bit more cramped than where we ended up (and our lot). I do think that those are fantastic floorplans.

RE: the streetscape/roundabout I am personally excited though some neighbors detest it and I expect them to sell when the project is said and done. sdr I would love your thoughts on how that will impact prices and I think this may be an extension of your Encinitas theory where locals are going to leave as it changes from NYC/Bay area transplants or just newer out of area money.

Yes that home is along my dog walking and Pannikin-jogging route. Terrible floods and that ADU killed the yard. I would not have considered the ones facing Hymettus since I prefer to not have a house "flagstone" to me.

I am losing my mind at Fulvia $3.8 pending and also the ugly one on Paxton pending at $2.8. The one on Paxton at least has a better lot though that floorplan was odd when new and is odder still a decade lader.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2021 - 6:34pm.

PH, yes a 1 story is a major score and I dont see under 1.5 for anything like what you have to sell. In Leucadia you dont need a huge yard, just space to create a nice outdoor environment or two to enjoy.

Lots of really good solid agents around here. Ive worked with many that are very good and Im sure you got one of em now

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2021 - 6:47pm.

I think its everything going up. I know Sitio Caliente very well and while Brisa might be a little closer in the Colrich homes are much nicer especially those with views. Sold one to a client on the canyon with downstairs master when new and hard to give away back in 11. They ultimately decided they never used the upstairs and traded up to nice one story with a view nearby which is always a struggle to find. It took a few years to do it but they are in a great forever spot.

Listed another there a few years ago on the canyon when it was next to impossible to sell a house in 92009 for over 1.3M. Back then these homes were viewed as practically SEH. My how things have changed with SEH blowing up the last couple years along with the coast.

That Fulvia home brings back fond memories. Back in the early days on this blog during the end of the bubble 05/06, I spent a lot of time trying to explain how the prime coastal spots were in very strong hands and would get sold off when things corrected. One poster found the Fulvia parcel on google maps and was trying to convince me he'd someday buy the whole thing for a few hundred K when things melted down. I set him straight that would never happen and it would held until the market would value it approriately. He vanished long ago and IIRC ended up somewhere in the Inland Empire

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 9, 2021 - 7:21pm.

On the streetscape/roundabout issue I dont see much of an impact beyond annoyance factor to locals. I think its a micro force and the macro forces are just too pwoerful in the area and ready for yet another leg up. Once the pandemic passes the completely re-done Hyatt formerly Four Seasons and La Costa Resort are gonna be a huge draw with access to a greatly improved beach area. The Alila marea opens soon and it is gonna have a massive impact on the area IMO. The Seabluffe folks who complained about it being built because they didnt want the vacation rental competition or traffic are gonna be huge beneficiaries. A room there starts at $4000 a week while a 2 or 3BR non view property in Seabluffe goes for $3K a week. Once you fall in love with the area why would you not prefer a private large home right next door. Prices should soar in there for rentals and sales.

I beleive that new resort will attract billionaires, pro athletes, celebrities and the very wealthy families looking for a true oceanfront beach resort in SD. While I have mixed personal feelings about it overtaking the pristine location, I am confident its gonna be a bonanza bringing a lot of focus to this area among the very very wealthy not just in the US but abroad. It will be our version of the Laguna Montage with a world class restarant in the works.

While there will always be bumps in the road over time I see nothing but boom times for property owners down there with spillover out to me as well. Hope thats what you like:)

Submitted by profhoff on March 9, 2021 - 7:03pm.

Re: Fulvia, now we get to see what somebody does with the lot on Fulvia and Leucadia Blvd. Sold last year, but no action yet. My guess is several big bombers with ocean view.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 9, 2021 - 7:24pm.

sdr I agree with your take and am glad to hear it from a real industry expert since of course, I am biased. Bay Laurel prices have gone up a bit though no sales here since the two in fall and the cheaper of the two was all original and has since been redone.

I would say the lot on Fulvia and then the 2 BIG lots on the corner of Hygeia and Glaucus are maybe the last opportunities to subdivide and build 6+ homes as far as west of 5 funky town is concerned.

I know something is supposed to happen with that old greenhouse just west of the La Costa Ave chevron but I can't find plans anywhere and have only seen the rendering for the apartments they want to put on Matteson's Florist.

Submitted by gzz on March 10, 2021 - 11:54am.

Re last undeveloped lots in Encinitas, I nearly purchased a plant nursery undeveloped lot in 2011. I recall it was bordering the 5 and maybe .6 acres, I forgot which side.

Basically my screen on zillow was large lots and low price near the coast.

I got a large underdeveloped lot in OB instead. The correct answer in retrospect was “¿Porque no los dos?”

Submitted by profhoff on March 10, 2021 - 12:18pm.

ncsd760 - re: the 48 proposed houses in the development west of 5 off La Costa, if you google various combos of "David Meyer," "David Meyer consultant," "DCM Properties," and "Weston family," with or without keywords like "Batiquitos Lagoon," and "48-unit" a lot of info will come up about the development, including the lawsuits, appeals, and plans.

From my read, it looks like the project has survived the latest appeal by the Batiquitos Lagoon Foundation to the Coastal Commission.

44 of the houses will be market rate and only 4 will be affordable as part of a density bonus deal.

Submitted by Hobie on March 10, 2021 - 12:56pm.

Would any of you know if there are any plans for the vacant land E of 5-- South of La Costa Ave, east of Piraeus, and north of Sky Loft.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 10, 2021 - 1:00pm.

Thanks but I half recoil and half laugh when referred to as an "industry expert" as the term is so overused and abused by all the "neighborhood experts". Just a guy with a deep experience as market analyst in prior careers 20+ years ago applying that to my passion for following real estate especially in our micro market. While I have a very strong track record with my predictions they are simply opinions albeit I like to think well informed and fact based.

Since the last BL sales in Fall I'd comfortably add at least 150 to 200K if not more without even looking at surrounding markets. Its that hot. Nice neighborhood I spent a fair amount dropping my son of to a friend whose family lives there until they all started driving. It will and should continue to do well.

Im not sure exactly where i read it, likely one of the local facebook groups but here are some things going on. The land by the Chevron is set to be developed into a bunch of single family homes. Im not sure if its a separate parcel but there was talk of a road side motel there at one time. Also just south of the Alila Marea from Robertos North there is developement under review for a variety of condos, hotel, timeshare etc. At some point its gonna get torn down and redveloped there also.

And then there is the big greenhouses at Vulcan where they proposed an ugly apartment complex that looked more like a generic assisted living facility. Hopefully something nicer designed gets put there.

I dont know the status of Hygeia/Glaucus but that is a nice large parcel that will get subdivided someday. I also wonder about the palm tree lot at Eolus and Leucadia and if someday that will get carved up.

The area is really in the midst of a renaisance and Im proud to have put together what I'd argue was the best deal anyone got west of 5 during the downturn. Sold a good friend a property that literally looks like a gated Brentwood estate for just over $1M ten years ago. Its gotta be well north of $3M now if not approaching $4M. He's the biggest winner

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 10, 2021 - 1:22pm.

Hobie wrote:
Would any of you know if there are any plans for the vacant land E of 5-- South of La Costa Ave, east of Piraeus, and north of Sky Loft.

last I heard someone was tryig to build a senior facility there (assisted living/skilled nursing)

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 10, 2021 - 1:23pm.

profhoff wrote:
ncsd760 - re: the 48 proposed houses in the development west of 5 off La Costa, if you google various combos of "David Meyer," "David Meyer consultant," "DCM Properties," and "Weston family," with or without keywords like "Batiquitos Lagoon," and "48-unit" a lot of info will come up about the development, including the lawsuits, appeals, and plans.

From my read, it looks like the project has survived the latest appeal by the Batiquitos Lagoon Foundation to the Coastal Commission.

44 of the houses will be market rate and only 4 will be affordable as part of a density bonus deal.

FWIW David Meyer is married to one of Ecke's

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 10, 2021 - 1:25pm.

gzz wrote:
Re last undeveloped lots in Encinitas, I nearly purchased a plant nursery undeveloped lot in 2011. I recall it was bordering the 5 and maybe .6 acres, I forgot which side.

Basically my screen on zillow was large lots and low price near the coast.

I got a large underdeveloped lot in OB instead. The correct answer in retrospect was “¿Porque no los dos?”

Those lots always struggle and always will relative to others. The freeway widening certainly wont help. I think you made the right call of the two

Submitted by profhoff on March 10, 2021 - 1:34pm.

Hobie - if I'm not mistaken, the property you are talking about is referred to as the "Cannon Property (Piraeus site)" and sometimes "Project 2" in Encinitas docs.

There are not that many sites left, so it's going to be interesting to see how Encinitas builds out.

Submitted by profhoff on March 10, 2021 - 1:38pm.

sdrealtor - regarding lots basically ON the 5 struggling, have you seen this? Another head exploding listing. Your backyard is literally the 5 freeway. $1.8m. Let's see how long it takes to go pending. $1.8m on Portofino!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 10, 2021 - 1:52pm.

Yes the Cannon property is the one I heard was slated for senior care facility. Jackel was the one I was referencing for more condos, hotel etc.

Crazy on Portofino but DM is a bit different as they sit well above the freeway. In Encinitas you are down in a hole. If you are South of Leucadia Blvd may have to deal with Cottonwood creek watershed issues on the far south end. Personally Id stay away from those types of property unless it was for commercial development.

One Im looking forward to watching is the Echter property across from ER golf course. Really one of kind development slated for that

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