North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 22, 2022 - 11:54am.

One of my buddies lives adjacent to Fresno. House was in need of complete redo inside and out. Morera was like that when purchased and got the full redo inside. Serbal got it inside and out.

Segovia needs lots and it’s kinda busy there but recent addition of 100 speed bumps should help. Been driving that road daily for a couple decades but avoid like plague now.

Market is just really slow now. It typically slows a lot this time of year and that’s been amplified by rates and markets. If you want to go now and house isn’t perfect you need to get aggressive on price or wait till Spring

The other one on market is kinda wonky model IMO and lot is very substandard for that house. I remember it struggling years ago to sell also

The better ones still fly off

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 22, 2022 - 12:34pm.

Update here to with y-o-y maing its return after a brief hiatus

New listings 32 (30) - should be peak listing time around now and if we see much higher ahead thats notable

New Pendings of 18 (25) - continuing to drop each week which is typical of the time of year and not in itself notable. The gap between new listings and new pendings is what is more notable

Thats -14

Closed sales at 19 (24)

Total houses for sale 111 (69) with median of $2.08M ($1.8M).

Inventory contiinues rising as it typically does and usually peaks in late July to early August. We are still averaging about 3 pendings per day over last couple weeks which puts us under 1 and 1/2 months of inventory.

We are starting to see the market separate and return to more traditional patterns. In a typical market the best homes here always sell well at top dollar while homes with challenges be they condition, floor plan, lot, location or pricing sit unless price is properly discounted for that. In a booming sellers market such as weve had the last 2 years, everything sells and homes take less of a discount because of panic driven buying. Thats not the case anymore in current conditions. With more choices buyers are more prone to wait for the right one

Submitted by ncsd760 on June 22, 2022 - 2:51pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
matt wrote:
3m in LCV is certainly hard to fathom. I don’t see that happening again in at least the next 2 years.

I wouldnt make that bet. Camino Serbal was much nicer and went a couple weeks earlier though longer escrow. It will be a bit of an upset if it doesnt go for more though someone who lost out on it may have gone all in on Morera after that defeat

FWIW generally speaking LCV has the best location, lots, amenities and friendliest community feel of the 4 Villages of La Costa neighborhoods but the oldest homes. Like for like they have always traded at a nice premium to the Oaks, Ridge and Greens

Agree that we might not be done with LCV in the 3's. I think as newer homes in worse locations age and are no longer desirable just because they're newer/bigger, neighborhoods in good spots in SW Carlsbad/Encinitas will continue to pop.

LCV/Santa Fe Trails + Sonata/Arroyo Vista/The Ranch have benefits that the newer/larger communities of La Costa do not in terms of proximity to the beaches and real shopping as well as walkability to K-12 school(s). Anyone can drop in cantina doors or put in the countertop of the year but you can't physically move your house.

"Neighborhood feel" is of course subjective but we didn't love the neighborhood feel in LC Oaks. As I've shared before we almost moved to LCV after living in LCO "North"—we considered it an upgrade to consider a home that was both smaller and older than what we were selling that was on a gracious lot with mature trees. It was also more expensive than what we were selling, so not a "move-down". Just a relevant anecdote.

Lastly, I agree with SDR that the smaller ones in better spots do better/hold more firmly even in a volatile market. You had some of those LCO/LCG big ones going for about 800-900k at the bottom with a few short sales in the high 7's and the Santa Fe Trails/Sonata ones weren't selling for much less, if at all. Look at the average Santa Fe Trails and Sonata 1998 built homes clocking in at the lowish 2's while average (no view/minimal upgrades or no cul-de-sac) LCO and LCG homes struggle and sit despite being newer and bigger.

Submitted by matt on June 22, 2022 - 7:44pm.

LCV is a great community with relatively lower HOA fees and a great community center but older and generally smaller homes / lots vs LCO and similar.

Perhaps there are 1-2 pending that continue to hit this range but my sense remains that 3m in LCV in the current macro-economic environment is the peak of this cycle.

I am one of those that picked up a LCO property at 900 at the bottom. My current target is to downsize but would prefer to be in a smaller home west of the 5 than a few meters closer to Camino Real.

Submitted by ncsd760 on June 22, 2022 - 9:02pm.

LCO at the bottom was a good deal, we did the same thing. The Encinitas/SW Carlsbad tracts are just convenient reference points for me since we lived in 2 of them and moved here at the bottom of the last bubble so remember those dynamics and properties decently well.

We moved west of 5 but east of the 101, about 400 square feet smaller, and 10 years older. It took us about 18 months of searching to find what felt "right", and some remodeling thereafter. Hang in there! You've got a good spot.

Submitted by Pbranding on June 22, 2022 - 9:43pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
ncsd760 wrote:
2.57 to 3.1 in less than a year feels a little arbitrary now, doesn't it? https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/209-Coral-Cove-Way-92024/home/22420675

That’s about what the market had done. We’ll see if it sticks?

Price reduced $150k today

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 23, 2022 - 9:22am.

matt wrote:
LCV is a great community with relatively lower HOA fees and a great community center but older and generally smaller homes / lots vs LCO and similar.

Perhaps there are 1-2 pending that continue to hit this range but my sense remains that 3m in LCV in the current macro-economic environment is the peak of this cycle.

I am one of those that picked up a LCO property at 900 at the bottom. My current target is to downsize but would prefer to be in a smaller home west of the 5 than a few meters closer to Camino Real.

FWIW lots are generally bigger in LCV than LCO which is amplified by putting bigger homes on the smaller lots. Our homes are worth what they are not because they are beautiful well built homes but rather because of the land. We are about 70% land value as a rule of thumb. Thus smaller house on bigger better located lot is as if not more valuable than bigger house on smaller not as well located lot. Morera in LCO doesnt sell for $3.05M. As the homes all age more this should bear out even more. If you struggling with this think about beach properties which are a more extreme example

The exceptions are the view lots in LCO which don’t exist in LCV so comparing those in LCO to any on LCV is apples and oranges

Submitted by ncsd760 on June 23, 2022 - 4:33pm.

Agree with SDR re: lots + pricing.

One thing I've noticed in this market is the greedy sellers pricing at some arbitrary milestone above a reasonable price threshold (500k mark, million mark, etc). For ex, if your house is worth 1.5, instead of listing at 1.485, you list for 1.65. It's always been a practice since everyone is convinced they have the crown jewel but it feels like sellers are more insistent and more greedy with it now.

Examples include Aryana Drive, which at one point probably could have listed for 2.7-2.9 and got bid up, but instead listed for 3.395 and played price drop musical chairs. Similarly, the Coral Cove starts at 3.15 and has to reduce in less than 30 days versus listing at 2.89 or something. I'd posit that anyone who has bought a home should know better about pricing their own, and anyone who has sold one should advise better in selling, but what do I know.

Submitted by Pbranding on June 23, 2022 - 6:20pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
matt wrote:
3m in LCV is certainly hard to fathom. I don’t see that happening again in at least the next 2 years.

I wouldnt make that bet. Camino Serbal was much nicer and went a couple weeks earlier though longer escrow. It will be a bit of an upset if it doesnt go for more though someone who lost out on it may have gone all in on Morera after that defeat

3.325

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 23, 2022 - 7:00pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
DaCounselor wrote:
Ok I'm calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.

How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it's first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.

Just before midnight yesterday at that!

I'll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong

As predicted on May 16th. Still the king. Undisputed

Submitted by Pbranding on June 23, 2022 - 7:43pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
DaCounselor wrote:
Ok I'm calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.

How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it's first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.

Just before midnight yesterday at that!

I'll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong

As predicted on May 16th. Still the king. Undisputed

It’s whoever gets closest without going over. The Price is Right rules. I think you went over a bit ;)

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 23, 2022 - 8:49pm.

Pbranding wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
DaCounselor wrote:
Ok I'm calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.

How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it's first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.

Just before midnight yesterday at that!

I'll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong

As predicted on May 16th. Still the king. Undisputed

It’s whoever gets closest without going over. The Price is Right rules. I think you went over a bit ;)

Lol it goes 15.45% over asking and my prediction was within 0.75% of final selling price. I'll call that a win even under the PIR rules;)

But before I celebrate with a nice glass of vino its time to set EconProf straight on this thread first

https://www.piggington.com/goodbye_san_d...

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 28, 2022 - 2:56pm.

New listings 21 (24) - as expected dropped down from what should've been peak listing. I dont think we'll see 30 again and if we do more than once it would be notable

New Pendings of 16 (34) - still dropping and buyer starting to resist prices

Thats +5

Closed sales at 20 (31)

Total houses for sale 120 (69) with median of $2M ($1.8M).

Inventory still climbing slowly but still around 1 1/2 months. No more than 15% have reduced prices so far. thats a sign of seller staying power/resistance. As we head toward end of Summer will be interesting to see if sellers reduce or pull homes off market. In the month of June 12 sellers decided to pull their homes off the market. Another thing i'll be watching

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