North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 7, 2020 - 2:46pm.

Thanks and my pleasure. Same to you and yours!

Submitted by barnaby33 on December 8, 2020 - 6:06pm.

Sometimes it's more than just money.

Yeah, even more money!
Josh

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 9, 2020 - 2:59pm.

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday

New listings 15 - a little uptick but still holiday slow down

New Pendings of 23 - buyers still out!

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 39

Price reductions down to 6. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 79 with median of $2.15M! Is this Carlsbad/Encinitas or RSF?

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 15, 2020 - 3:18pm.

Update time.

New listings 7 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 16 - buyers still out!

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 35

Price reductions down to 6. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 66 with median of $2.195M!

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 23, 2020 - 1:50pm.

Update time.

New listings 10 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 15 - buyers still out!

Thats a -5 for the week.

Closed sales at 29

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale down to 54 with median of $2.235M! Almost cut in half last month

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 6, 2021 - 8:52pm.

Ok guess I owe y'all an update. I ran #'s last week and this.

Last Week

New listings 8 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 15 - buyers still out!

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale down to 51 with median of $2.2M

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 6, 2021 - 8:57pm.

This week

New listings 11 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 16 - buyers still out!

Thats a -5 for the week.

Closed sales at 22

Price reductions at 3.

Total houses for sale down to 45 with median of $2.2M

This should be the bottom for inventory. It really has been surprising how steady pendings have been through the holidays, the pandemic and the lack of inventory.

SD has been predicted to be the #1 market in the country and my area feels like ground zero for that. Pricewise we have pretty much caught up with Carmel Valley. I feel so fortunate to have arrived here when I did, to have gotten the home I did, to have had the foresight to keep it through some personal challenges and to live here. I still pinch myself frequently

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2021 - 11:46am.

Time for the market to start waking up. Lets see what the numbers say.

New listings 18 - waking up a little but gonna need lots more! These numbers need to quickly get into the 40+ range to come anywhere close to meeting demand

New Pendings of 15 - buyers never stopped looking

Thats a +3 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 1.

Total houses for sale down to 52 with median of $2.4M

Looks like last week was the bottom barring a complete market boom. There is no more low end here anymore for single family houses. Under $1M barely exists beyond a fixer or something encumbered in some way.

Im reminded of a conversation I had many years ago, Pre-Piggington for me. It was circa 2005 with another top agent in my hood. I saw the storm coming and was trying to warn other agents with limited success. I told her to prepare for major downturn in the next 5 years but that long term all the pieces were in place for South Carlsbad to become our version of Newport Beach. I said hold onto what you can for future generations of your family for the long term as eventualy prices would explode here. Those days arrived and while its hard to say how much higher we go how quickly we are headed for even higher levels IMO.

Submitted by gzz on January 14, 2021 - 12:35pm.

So less than a 0.5 month supply!

Inventory still plumbing new lows in my zip code. Current non-pending MLS is 9 houses 1 condo.

Exactly 10 years ago it was 49 houses and 56 condos.

That’s more extreme than most zips, but Mira Mesa and Kensington also has an inventory decline of more than 90% v 10 years ago.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 14, 2021 - 2:32pm.

OB is tough as it is so thinnly traded. A few houses either way can really swing the trends.

There is virtually 0 months supply up here. Anything sitting on the market more than a few days is super high end, has issues. is horribly overpriced or a combination of the three. The current median of $2.4M for actives tells that story as the median of sold homes the last 30 days is $1.25M

I just looked at the 54 SFR's on the market. Only 9 are below $1.4M and 6 of those 9 are on the market a handful of days so should be sold soon. Overall 22 0f the 54 actives have been on the market a week or less

Submitted by gzz on January 15, 2021 - 1:59pm.

Here's a fairly priced house in 92107 (Point Loma Heights section):

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-210001203-4...

I bet it will go above list, possibly 50k+ more.

Interesting that 7 of the 9 SFH listings are all clustered in the narrow 2 to 2.3M range. The other two are 1.15 and 1.3.

Submitted by Andrew32 on January 15, 2021 - 2:25pm.

We bought last month in 92011 and felt lucky to have had the opportunity to buy new construction and not battle other people for a resale (which we were eyeing but saw nothing we liked much, regardless of price).

We feel good about our purchase and while there was some compromise on the lot size, the house meets our needs long term and has an attached guest suite with a full kitchen and separate address we will use right away for our nanny, then in-laws, then potentially income-generating.

We agree with your assessment of the area and our goal right now is to keep the home as a dual rental property if we ever choose to buy another primary home.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 15, 2021 - 4:59pm.

Andrew32 wrote:
We bought last month in 92011 and felt lucky to have had the opportunity to buy new construction and not battle other people for a resale (which we were eyeing but saw nothing we liked much, regardless of price).

We feel good about our purchase and while there was some compromise on the lot size, the house meets our needs long term and has an attached guest suite with a full kitchen and separate address we will use right away for our nanny, then in-laws, then potentially income-generating.

We agree with your assessment of the area and our goal right now is to keep the home as a dual rental property if we ever choose to buy another primary home.

Welcome to the neighborhood and obviously only one place this could be. I think you will do fine. Only new construction for an SFR in the zip that was left unless someone gets their hands on the big ranch property by the lagoon but I think the city has their eyes on it. Pricing seemed very fair especially for a new home in that ZIP. I think you'll do well there over the long term. See ya round!

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 12:21pm.

We should have seem an uptick in new listings. Lets see what we got.

New listings 14 - not a good sign and really need this to start pumping out more

New Pendings of 22 - buyers never stopped looking

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 17

Price reductions at 4.

Total houses for sale down to 51 with median of $2.235M

Hoping we get more inventory to keep upward pressure on prices reasonable. I have a particular interest in how the market is going to value ADU's as Im hoping to add one. Ive seen a couple sales that seem to indicated the market has no issue adding 200Kish for 1BR/1BA 600sf ish unit. Im liking those numbers as Id like to add a 2/2 around 1000 sf ish out back

Having given up on Urban Metro Monitor for it really not being very interesting Im gonna start one for MM which i find very interesting and relevant. Look for it soon

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 26, 2021 - 6:46pm.

Update time. The uptick in listings should have started and along with the next two will give us a good glimpse as to how the Spring season will go. Lets see what we got.

New listings 14 - really expected/hoped for more. It better pick up soon because....

New Pendings of 23 - buyers are relentless!

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 12

Price reductions at 5.

Total houses for sale down to 50 with median of $2.29M

Inventory below $1.5 is very scarce. Herd of 50+ showings on a $1.4M home this weekend. Most of the inventory is high priced in Encinitas.

There is very little in So Carlsbad which should be 3 to 4 times the size of Encinitas market. There are 19 homes on the market in So Carlsbad and only 9 below $1.5M. There should be closer to 100 in a more normal market.

This is looking like we could get another 10% bump this year along the NCC unless something starts changing soon.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 3, 2021 - 9:05am.

Update time. Not getting better here either.

New listings 21 - a little uptick in new listings but....

New Pendings of 33 - many buyers for all of them!

Thats a -12 for the week.

Closed sales at 15

Price reductions at 4.

Total houses for sale down to 48 with median of $2.32M

There are currenlty 8 SFR's for sale in 92009 and 2 in 92011. There should be 100 or more. We are selling a $2M home almost everyday. These are homes that used to take months to sell if they sold at all. Just about everything under $2M is on market less than a week. Send reinforcements!

House like mine listed about a month ago for $100K more than better similar homes have sold a couple months ago. It sat until they lowered it to prior comps that were nicer condition, more upgraded, better lot, not impaired location and views. This one needs a complete redo and has lived a hard life the last 20 years. If it closes at or near that price, the market is already 5% higher than 2 months ago. It looks like 10% bump this year is baked in already

Submitted by gzz on February 10, 2021 - 9:55am.

92107 inventory is a rounding error from zero. Only 6 single family houses, for 1.3, 1.9, and the rest 2+ million. Only 1 condo and 3 townhouses for a total MLS inventory of 10 in an area where a strong month in a normal market has 40 sales.

Another way to look at it is that there are about 15,000 people in rental households in 92107. If only 4% of them are making plans to buy, that’s 600 potential buyers chasing....... 0 houses, 2 townhouses, and a single 1/1 condo under $900,000. And they will compete with investment buyers, out of area buyers, “buy another home and keep the old one as a rental” buyers,” parents buying for their kids, etc.

There certainly could be another covid/9-11/1929 crash scale event in 2021. Outside of that, we’re headed straight up. Lots of buyers, virtually no sellers.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 11, 2021 - 4:14pm.

Update time. Not getting better here getting worse. I think this is a watershed week. Not expecting change , hoping for change

New listings 22 - a little uptick in new listings but....

New Pendings of 26 - many buyers for all of them!

Thats a -4 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 0.

Total houses for sale down to 44 with median of $2.125M

Got a letter from a family from LA that went to my neighborhood two days ago looking for a home. Got a call today from a realtor on my unlisted/DNC list number asking if I wanted to sell my home. Thank goodness for the stock market.

As gzz said, lots of buyers, no sellers

House just came on the market 1/2 mile away. Bought last January for $1.34M. Listed for $1.68M which is 25% above what they paid one year ago. That pretty much says it all

Submitted by gzz on February 15, 2021 - 10:43am.

2020 volume in OB/PL went way up, even more than prices.

92106: # of SFH sales 2019 to 2020:180 to 226, +25%
$ of sales,$240m to 340m +42%.

92107: 143 to 172 SFH sales, $178m to $233m $ sales volume, +20% and +31%.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 16, 2021 - 4:28pm.

Update time. It didnt get better. Not only is it tough to buy a house, in many cases its tough to even get an appointment to see one. Houses are getting listed with Sat/Sun 12-5pm showing windows with appointments every 15 minutes. Thats 40 slots and they get filled very quickly. Been shut out from even getting to see houses a few times already.

New listings 20 - just not getting much in the way of homes under $1.5M and things higher are selling too

New Pendings of 16 - not much to buy!

Thats a +4 for the week. Dont read too much into an increase.

Closed sales at 12

Price reductions at 0.

Total houses for sale down to 52 with median of $1.822M. Prices arent going down, we had 8 houses go pending above $2M. Just a less inventory skewed to the top end for now

Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point

Submitted by XBoxBoy on February 16, 2021 - 6:42pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point

Well, not to nitpick... but it could also be solved with higher interest rates. (Not saying that's likely mind you! Just there's more than one way to skin a cat.)

Submitted by gzz on February 17, 2021 - 10:45am.

Janet and Jerome say NO to high rates, GSE bonds Nom Nom Nom.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 17, 2021 - 12:45pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Only way to solve this is more inventory and where it comes from I havent a clue at this point

Well, not to nitpick... but it could also be solved with higher interest rates. (Not saying that's likely mind you! Just there's more than one way to skin a cat.)

Might make it worse. Who would move if they had to give up a 2.5 % mortgage? That's not the answer

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 23, 2021 - 3:08pm.

Only getting tougher here also.

New listings 23 - just not getting much in the way of homes under $1.5M and things higher are selling too

New Pendings of 31 - put it on the market and its gone!

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 3. Obviously shot way too high on those

Total houses for sale down to 48 with median of $1.987M.

In my 3 zip area (92009/92011/92024) there are 104 pendings and 48 actives. Ten actives under 1.5M and basically nothing under $1M. Half the listings over $2M.

Talking to agents in my hood they are seeing buyers pouring in from Bay Area and LA. FSD just announced his pending return from West LA in coming year. Piles of offers and only the strongest most motivated buyers have a shot. Houses routinely in escrow $100 to 200K over asking. I think we are about 20% y-o-y in my hood maybe more with no end in sight.

Ten years ago I was laughed at here when I tried to explain the area had and was fundamentally changing into Newport Beach. That it truly was going to be "different this time". The dumpy chart house in cardiff is gonna be a Mastro's. The Hyatt Alila Marea is opening soon overlooking Ponto. A week there starts at $4700 all in for a hotel room not a suite. A studio suite starts around a G a night. Buckle up its on along the NCC!! Wont be long until we see Real Housewives of North County Coastal San Diego

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 2, 2021 - 9:27pm.

More of the same

New listings 30 - little better but not close to whats needed

New Pendings of 32 - still a buyer for any decent listing!

Thats a -2 for the week.

Closed sales at 25

Price reductions at 1. Price reduced from $6.6M to $6.4M.

Total houses for sale down to 53 with median of $1.999M. (note: ran numbers earlier today and when I just rechecked before posting its already back down to 48)

In Sept a model match to my house sold for $1.24M with the best lot in the community (13,000 sq ft canyon view lot with pool and plenty of room to add pool house or ADU). Tonight a model match closed for 1.275M in poor condition with no upgrades since it was built in 99 on a small lot on a busy corner. These represent the same model but the best vs the worst home in my tract. Today the best one could go for close to 1.5M. The market has changed that much that fast.

We should have an even more compelling example soon There's a house nearby that sold January 2020 for $1.34M. It came back on 13 months later and is in escrow with asking price of $1.679M. It went almost immediately. When it closes we will know how much the y-o-y appreciation has been with a matched pair. It should be at least 25%. I dont know what else to say.

Submitted by gzz on March 3, 2021 - 5:57am.

25% is very possible! CAR data:

“ Statewide, the median price last month was $699,890, compared to $717,930 in December — down 3%. In January 2020, the median price was $575,160, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 22%.”

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 7, 2021 - 12:18pm.

Is anyone surprised at the number of 1 Channel Island and Coral Cove resales compared to say Maravu/Bay Laurel? (I always thought Coral Cove was *somewhat* analogous to Bay Laurel and 1 Channel was *somewhat* analogous to Maravu though I think the Bay Laurel and Maravu lots are much better). I know there are people who bought in Maravu and Bay Laurel circa 2009-2014ish who are sitting on more equity than those who bought new from Shea.

Also raised eyebrows at the Sandalwood (Shea Encinitas) recent listing flood...I think some of those prices are a little ambitious compared to 1 Channel or average-to-Restoration Hardware'd out Lynwood/Cypress Hls houses...though whoever got Hidden Ridge for $1.8ish is probably feeling good.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 7, 2021 - 11:31pm.

I think Sandalwood location and view is superior to 1 Channel and Enc Ranch by a good margin.They have the best lots and location which is worth far more than a nicer house around here. I live very close by and remember when they were built. For my eye it is the premier tract built home community in Encinitas. Over the last 20 years sales up there have always seemed to come in bunches. While 3 came on the last few months I dont view it as anything unusual. They do seem to be pushing prices a bit though up there.

1 Channel is now about 5-6 years old. Thats a timeframe where you always see some turnover. There have been 4 listings in the last 6 months. They are going for 50%+ original prices and when someone gets a big number neighbors take note. The area also had some recent drama. Rich people move to Encinitas/Leucadia and dont always look around much. Its funky in a lot of ways that just doesnt always suit the fancy pants crowd over time.

Coral Cove had 2 listings the last 6 months. Hardly a flood and it too is at the 5-6 year mark. There should be turnover. A good portion were bought as vacation homes and those that didnt use them as much as they thought or want to upgrade will be among those moving on. Nothing unusual or suprising here either

Maravu/Bay Laurel already had their their big turnover years ago. Most of the folks there now are more settled in for the long run. No surprise there is less turnover in them. BTW sandalwood new was 600ish new IIRC

And welcome to circus.

Submitted by profhoff on March 8, 2021 - 1:51pm.

What is the big drama in Channel Island? We were in escrow on a house in there last year or year before, I can't remember. Anyway, during disclosures, the seller (also the LA) disclosed that the neighbor to the east played music on the weekends that you could hear in the backyard. So we went by one weekend and boy, was it noisy! So, we cancelled escrow and it ended up selling the next selling cycle.

Now I see the noisy house was on the market and went pending quick for an eye-popping price. The listing remarks comment on the "restaurant-quality" sound system. The backyard on the noisy house is amazing - definitely built for serious entertaining.

We also considered another house in Channel Island but the backyard had an unpermitted loggia. That came back on the market this year and went pending recently. Not super quick, but quick enough.

I noticed the Sandalwood recent listing. Looks nice.

We ended up in a nice newer smaller semi-custom development in Leucadia that so far has no drama and is surrounded by funky town, which we love.

Submitted by ncsd760 on March 8, 2021 - 3:29pm.

Long time Piggington browser, recentish Leucadian. I'll bite and say that some of the more pretentious or more conservative-skewing crowd (based anecdotally on convos with friends, their parents who also own in the area, and people I know who have passed on either 1Channel Island or Saxony Condos for explicitly this reason) are unhappy about the houseless persons parking lot on Saxony where people living out of their cars can park on the Leichtag property overnight. Frankly, it would not bother me and I think it's sort of naive to expect all this land to either be undeveloped forever or only developed for houses well-off people can afford without concessions to the worse-off. Maybe that's me being a hippie.

We too are now living in a smaller newish (~Y2k) Leucadia area and we indeed love "funky town" though I would say about half our friends would rather have more *house* space in Encinitas Ranch/The Ranch/La Costa Oaks for the +/- highish 1mms or low 2mms. There are people who couldn't care less about being walking v. driving distance to the beach and majority non-chain restaurants and I couldn't blame them for not wanting to pay the premium for less house. Even heard an acquaintance get drunk at a get-together a few years ago and confess that they could never do Leucadia because they wanted a strong HOA. We also have no amenities (golf, pool, tennis) so if that is your jam better go east.

Also candidly if we had school-age kids it would be stupid to not want to pick a La Costa Valley, The Ranch, Arroyo Vista, Santa Trails area where they can walk to school K-6 or even K-12 versus having to drive to Capri or Paul Ecke and now even middle school (head hurts trying to remember OakCrest or Diegueno--feel like you flip a coin LOL) since there is no longer a bus.

As always it's different strokes for different folks. Having done the La Costa area thing when kids were younger it has an undeniable appeal to have the children walking distance to K-12 and at least at the time ECC and OPE (and maybe the one by Sonata) and Diegueno were the best schools hands down. Now that our family is aged up the appeal is much less so but we are very beachy folk and not golfers or horse fans in the slightest.

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