North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 7, 2020 - 2:46pm.

Thanks and my pleasure. Same to you and yours!

Submitted by barnaby33 on December 8, 2020 - 6:06pm.

Sometimes it's more than just money.

Yeah, even more money!
Josh

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 9, 2020 - 2:59pm.

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday

New listings 15 - a little uptick but still holiday slow down

New Pendings of 23 - buyers still out!

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 39

Price reductions down to 6. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 79 with median of $2.15M! Is this Carlsbad/Encinitas or RSF?

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 15, 2020 - 3:18pm.

Update time.

New listings 7 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 16 - buyers still out!

Thats a -9 for the week.

Closed sales at 35

Price reductions down to 6. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 66 with median of $2.195M!

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 23, 2020 - 1:50pm.

Update time.

New listings 10 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 15 - buyers still out!

Thats a -5 for the week.

Closed sales at 29

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale down to 54 with median of $2.235M! Almost cut in half last month

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 6, 2021 - 8:52pm.

Ok guess I owe y'all an update. I ran #'s last week and this.

Last Week

New listings 8 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 15 - buyers still out!

Thats a -7 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 2.

Total houses for sale down to 51 with median of $2.2M

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 6, 2021 - 8:57pm.

This week

New listings 11 - Zzzzzzzz........

New Pendings of 16 - buyers still out!

Thats a -5 for the week.

Closed sales at 22

Price reductions at 3.

Total houses for sale down to 45 with median of $2.2M

This should be the bottom for inventory. It really has been surprising how steady pendings have been through the holidays, the pandemic and the lack of inventory.

SD has been predicted to be the #1 market in the country and my area feels like ground zero for that. Pricewise we have pretty much caught up with Carmel Valley. I feel so fortunate to have arrived here when I did, to have gotten the home I did, to have had the foresight to keep it through some personal challenges and to live here. I still pinch myself frequently

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2021 - 11:46am.

Time for the market to start waking up. Lets see what the numbers say.

New listings 18 - waking up a little but gonna need lots more! These numbers need to quickly get into the 40+ range to come anywhere close to meeting demand

New Pendings of 15 - buyers never stopped looking

Thats a +3 for the week.

Closed sales at 23

Price reductions at 1.

Total houses for sale down to 52 with median of $2.4M

Looks like last week was the bottom barring a complete market boom. There is no more low end here anymore for single family houses. Under $1M barely exists beyond a fixer or something encumbered in some way.

Im reminded of a conversation I had many years ago, Pre-Piggington for me. It was circa 2005 with another top agent in my hood. I saw the storm coming and was trying to warn other agents with limited success. I told her to prepare for major downturn in the next 5 years but that long term all the pieces were in place for South Carlsbad to become our version of Newport Beach. I said hold onto what you can for future generations of your family for the long term as eventualy prices would explode here. Those days arrived and while its hard to say how much higher we go how quickly we are headed for even higher levels IMO.

Submitted by gzz on January 14, 2021 - 12:35pm.

So less than a 0.5 month supply!

Inventory still plumbing new lows in my zip code. Current non-pending MLS is 9 houses 1 condo.

Exactly 10 years ago it was 49 houses and 56 condos.

That’s more extreme than most zips, but Mira Mesa and Kensington also has an inventory decline of more than 90% v 10 years ago.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 14, 2021 - 2:32pm.

OB is tough as it is so thinnly traded. A few houses either way can really swing the trends.

There is virtually 0 months supply up here. Anything sitting on the market more than a few days is super high end, has issues. is horribly overpriced or a combination of the three. The current median of $2.4M for actives tells that story as the median of sold homes the last 30 days is $1.25M

I just looked at the 54 SFR's on the market. Only 9 are below $1.4M and 6 of those 9 are on the market a handful of days so should be sold soon. Overall 22 0f the 54 actives have been on the market a week or less

Submitted by gzz on January 15, 2021 - 1:59pm.

Here's a fairly priced house in 92107 (Point Loma Heights section):

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-210001203-4...

I bet it will go above list, possibly 50k+ more.

Interesting that 7 of the 9 SFH listings are all clustered in the narrow 2 to 2.3M range. The other two are 1.15 and 1.3.

Submitted by Andrew32 on January 15, 2021 - 2:25pm.

We bought last month in 92011 and felt lucky to have had the opportunity to buy new construction and not battle other people for a resale (which we were eyeing but saw nothing we liked much, regardless of price).

We feel good about our purchase and while there was some compromise on the lot size, the house meets our needs long term and has an attached guest suite with a full kitchen and separate address we will use right away for our nanny, then in-laws, then potentially income-generating.

We agree with your assessment of the area and our goal right now is to keep the home as a dual rental property if we ever choose to buy another primary home.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 15, 2021 - 4:59pm.

Andrew32 wrote:
We bought last month in 92011 and felt lucky to have had the opportunity to buy new construction and not battle other people for a resale (which we were eyeing but saw nothing we liked much, regardless of price).

We feel good about our purchase and while there was some compromise on the lot size, the house meets our needs long term and has an attached guest suite with a full kitchen and separate address we will use right away for our nanny, then in-laws, then potentially income-generating.

We agree with your assessment of the area and our goal right now is to keep the home as a dual rental property if we ever choose to buy another primary home.

Welcome to the neighborhood and obviously only one place this could be. I think you will do fine. Only new construction for an SFR in the zip that was left unless someone gets their hands on the big ranch property by the lagoon but I think the city has their eyes on it. Pricing seemed very fair especially for a new home in that ZIP. I think you'll do well there over the long term. See ya round!

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 12:21pm.

We should have seem an uptick in new listings. Lets see what we got.

New listings 14 - not a good sign and really need this to start pumping out more

New Pendings of 22 - buyers never stopped looking

Thats a -8 for the week.

Closed sales at 17

Price reductions at 4.

Total houses for sale down to 51 with median of $2.235M

Hoping we get more inventory to keep upward pressure on prices reasonable. I have a particular interest in how the market is going to value ADU's as Im hoping to add one. Ive seen a couple sales that seem to indicated the market has no issue adding 200Kish for 1BR/1BA 600sf ish unit. Im liking those numbers as Id like to add a 2/2 around 1000 sf ish out back

Having given up on Urban Metro Monitor for it really not being very interesting Im gonna start one for MM which i find very interesting and relevant. Look for it soon

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