North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by yipla on December 24, 2021 - 3:09am.

gzz, I don't need cash, but I'm often dinged on tax benefits for having too much income. As a landlord, I can't take losses against my other income. So, if step-up-in basis is killed even in part, I bet it will get me.

My approach to mortgage's has been leverage to the max at lowest 30yr rates possible and keep excess money in the stock market.

sdrealtor, the cap gains exclusion only saves like 20% on gains, right? Assuming my gains on either place are about the same, I'm not sure it really changes the overall calculus much between UC and Clairemont? It would be a good chunk of change either way.

I think I need to do a bunch of math to decide whether hold or sell is better, and this is all better to be done after we see what the new tax laws end up as.

But outside of financials, stress is high and managing rentals is like, this background worry that something could pop up at a bad time. And a bad neighbor is part of that. I will probably feel less stressed and more appreciative of cash flow if I early retire in a couple years...

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 24, 2021 - 11:01am.

Absolutely the answer is to do the math. 10 years ago I bought a condo in North Park and sold it five years later for 3x what I paid. At the time it was worth paying long term capital gains as it allowed me to wipe out all my debt except my 1st mortgage on my primary. For me that was life changing. Had I held it now it is about 4.5x what I originally paid. It would also be generating almost $20k actual income which would be more than a 20% income stream return. Would I like to have that today and on into retirement? Sure but looking back it was and still is the right decision to have made. I paid off a large HELOC I still have with a zero balance that I’ve used a few times to capitalize on great investments that have returned even more. I’ll likely use it next to build an ADU for myself that will allow me to convert my primary into a massive cash flow generator. Do the math, apply it to your own circumstances and make the best decision you can for yourself and your family

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 30, 2021 - 10:03am.

Last one of the year as of Tuesday

New listings 2 - mostly tenant occupied or prior rental

New Pendings of 5 -

Thats -3

Closed sales at 6 -

Price reductions at 0 -

Total houses for sale 18 with median of $2.9M.

We end the year with the shelves empty. Everything on the market is well over $3M or if less than that horribly overpriced. Even so I just rechecked and we are down to 14 with median of $3.25M. Looking forward to a fresh start to see what next year brings but dont expect much relief. By mid Jan we should start seeing things trickling on

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 4, 2022 - 5:08pm.

Preseason begins

New listings 6 - half we listed last year and taken off before holidays

New Pendings of 12 -

Thats -6

Closed sales at 18 -

Price reductions at 0 -

Total houses for sale 18 with median of $2.77M.

Still early but Im looking to see how much higher sellers are willing to test the market. TBD

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 11, 2022 - 10:45pm.

First week of the season. Im gonna make one slight change going forward. Next to the listings and pendings each week I will include the figure from last year. That will start now for this thread.

New listings 6 (18) - oh boy not a good start and 2 new lsitings were 2BR detached zero lot line condos not really true SFR's

New Pendings of 5 (15) - cant sell what isnt there

Thats +1

Closed sales at 13 -

Price reductions at 0 -

Total houses for sale 21 with median of $2.575M.

This is not a good start. Really need to get this market going. It would be nice to see 15-20 new listings per week if not more

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 18, 2022 - 10:00pm.

New listings 17 (14) - encouraging start to see new listings back up

New Pendings of 13 (22) - not much to buy and will take a little more time to catch up with last year

Thats +4

Closed sales at 10 -

Price reductions at 0 -

Total houses for sale 29 with median of $2.2M.

In some ways its encouraging to see more new listings but most are high end, very small or pushing price. Just looked for 4/3 2400 sq ft + up to 1.75M in all 4 Carlsbad zips or 92078. Based upon running similar a couple days back knew I could count em on 1 hand. I still have all my fingers. Nothing

Need the tide to come in

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