North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by gzz on September 29, 2021 - 7:29pm.

Same in OB. Only 2 houses listed below 1.9M, versus 16 listings exactly a year ago.

In the combined peninsula 92106/7 the cheapest detached is currently 1.32M.

High income bay area people are paying top dollar for long term rentals and monthly airbnb whole house short terms too. We remain #2 of 20 in the case schiller index behind Phoenix.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 30, 2021 - 1:51pm.

Odd thing is same agent had place in bread n butter area of Encinitas (Village Park) but no calls from Bay Area cash buyers. The pockets of relative abnormal demand are not everywhere in SD. Just spoke to a neighbor that bought a year ago for 1.25 and hes at 1.75 now

Just an FYI in 92106/92107 you are at 13 active and 22 pending for $2M and less so 1.7:1. We are 4:1 up here by the same measure (20 active:80 pendings). Despite the numbers being larger, its far more inventory constrained up here. For comparison Carmel valley is 8 active:22 pendings. Its a powder keg up here at the moment

Submitted by flyer on October 1, 2021 - 8:51am.

When we look at our portfolio, here and elsewhere, it's clear that some areas seem to have a greater demand than others--most, for obvious reasons. Although many areas seem to be doing very well, it's clear that the run up is becoming more and more niche.

Although Schiller is still warning of a crash, which I don't espouse, we don't plan on selling anything (the kids won't let us:) it's fun to watch, and great for the rental/leasing business. Cycles come and go, but you can weather most any real estate storm as long as you plan well from the beginning.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 5, 2021 - 5:26pm.

New listings 19 - usually a few decent weeks and then by late Oct the big annual drop off

New Pendings of 28 - demand keeps chugging along

Thats -9

Closed sales at 24 -

Price reductions at 7

Total houses for sale 59 with median of $2.5M.

One thing I see quite a bit more of is old beach area properties hitting the marketing that have been owned for many decades. Prices are so high now some oldtimers are cashing out at a rate I havent seen the last 20 years. Interesting to watch and some really good parcels of land changing hands

10% appreciation seems in the bag this year and most are predicting closer to 20%

Submitted by sdduuuude on October 5, 2021 - 11:15pm.

This is all nice and all - but Rich makes charts for us. :)

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 6, 2021 - 9:10am.

sdduuuude wrote:
This is all nice and all - but Rich makes charts for us. :)

I've got the raw data and it's linked to graphs. I'm just not so good at posting them :)

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 6, 2021 - 10:15am.

Fulvia house just closed 70% above the 2019 new purchase price

Submitted by Jim the Realtor on October 8, 2021 - 10:00am.

>>Stopped by broker open house around the corner today. Was talking to agent. House was listed yesterday. Already has 7 showings booked for Saturday that are all cash buyers. Bay Area.

She got 15 offers.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 8, 2021 - 11:19am.

Jim the Realtor wrote:
>>Stopped by broker open house around the corner today. Was talking to agent. House was listed yesterday. Already has 7 showings booked for Saturday that are all cash buyers. Bay Area.

She got 15 offers.

No surprise. There should have been two houses built on that lot. Its perfect for adding an ADU or more. Its crazy here! Im starting to plan mine. If I build what I hoping to, it would be a house that could sell for around $1M itself if it was on its own parcel. The value of land here is insane

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 9, 2021 - 9:48am.

Really interested to see what that house ends up going for as it is really the perfect lot to add an ADU and there's a very good chance the buyer is looking at it that way. Would help to get an idea as to what someone would value a lot like that over and above what the house alone would sell for.

In case anyone is interested this is the house in question

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 13, 2021 - 2:49pm.

New listings 14 - big annual drop off is aorund the corner

New Pendings of 22 - demand keeps chugging along but few things to buy

Thats -8

Closed sales at 23 - still seeing things close 6 figures over asking but fewer of them than during peak frenzy a few months ago

Price reductions at 2

Total houses for sale 49 with median of $2.65M

This time last year there was 99 for sale. Inventory is half what it was. Keep packing the powder the keg

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