North County Coastal monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on August 12, 2020 - 4:30pm

Time to move this onto the forums for some added visibility and discussions. Ive been tracking this data since the beginning of April when the market was just coming out of a month where the market was frozen in place withe the shelter in place order. Since then the market has come roaring back here.

A few parameters. This data is for detached homes only in Encinitas (92024) and the two S Carlsbad zips (92009 and 92011). I run the data mid afternoon on tuesdays to allow for a day or two of negotiations after the weekend. New listings mostly come on the market between Wed Night and Saturday Morning. New pendings mostly reach agreement between Sunday night and Tuesday Afternoon. I also exclude new homes as its generally a different market.

Im not gonna rehash all the old data but may refer to trends. Anyone wanting to see data can ask or refer back to home page threads.

Submitted by profhoff on September 13, 2020 - 9:15am.

We did, sdrealtor! We finally did. But I will say it took a lot of preparation. It also helped to have four years of experience looking and losing out on offers to snag the perfect one when it finally hit.

Submitted by profhoff on September 13, 2020 - 9:20am.

I also think you are right, sdrealtor, that as the masses come and discover the unique charms of Encinitas, they'll buy what they can afford to buy to grab a little piece of the magic.

The I-5 won't have the same connotation to them that it does to locals and I think the "wrong side of the tracks" perception will largely fade away.

Also agree that the "barefoot luxury" the new Alila Marea Beach Resort represents will be a real game changer for Leucadia, in particular.

https://www.alilahotels.com/about-alila/...

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 14, 2020 - 3:16pm.

profhoff wrote:
I also think you are right, sdrealtor, that as the masses come and discover the unique charms of Encinitas, they'll buy what they can afford to buy to grab a little piece of the magic.

The I-5 won't have the same connotation to them that it does to locals and I think the "wrong side of the tracks" perception will largely fade away.

Also agree that the "barefoot luxury" the new Alila Marea Beach Resort represents will be a real game changer for Leucadia, in particular.

https://www.alilahotels.com/about-alila/upcoming-developments/alila-marea

We are on the same page. It's not just Encinitas. The NCC from Del Mar through Carlsbad is all very special and in this same trajectory IMO. That new resort will attract Hollywood elite, pro athletes, corporate execs and billionaires will be guests at this place with their families. SD is a world class destination and this resort will represent the single best beach resort here. I think it's gonna be a home run for the area despite local old time opposition. It's funny that the Sea Bluffe folks view it as a threat. It could triple their property values over the next twenty years if not sooner

Congrats on your new home and glad to hear your heels are dug in

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 15, 2020 - 5:20pm.

Update time. Im starting to think all of SD cant possibly be like here. Here's the latest

New listings 24 back down and seems about average for this time of year.

New Pendings of 35 so the buyers still very active. Its gotta be real tough to be a buyer out there shaking one's head! Pendings were 11 higher than new listings. There seems to be no end to the demand

Closed sales at 40 were highest of the year. Here's something astounding I found when reviewing them. 25 closed at or above asking price with most of those above asking. That means unfilled orders and more upward pressure on prices.

Back up with 13 price reductions.

Total houses for sale down to 85. Just a note here as to the reason why inventory doesnt drop as much as the gap between new and pending listings. Each week a bunch of properties come back on the market for a variety of reasons. It can be a buyer that cancelled, a seller that pulled their home of the market to do upgrades or take a break or any number of reasons. Its good to look at the inventory number but I think the gap between new and pending listings is more indicative of market conditions.

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 21, 2020 - 12:18pm.

Just a heads up. I'll do an update tomorrow but it will likely be a mess. They switched MLS platform and we had to access to update it since noon on Wednesday. It just re-opened but I think there will be some lag and glitches so data could be wacky this week and possibly next week as local realtors play catch up. Should be back to normal in a couple weeks

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 22, 2020 - 1:35pm.

No update the transition is too glitchy and I cant get the data Ive been running. if I search for all new listings the last 7 days I get every listing in history of the database as they have all been added to the database in the last few days. We can get back to normal reporting next week.

Until then I'll report active SFR inventory at 93 which is up from last week but still subject to the new system.

There were 6 brand new listings entered here in last 2 days but only 3 marked pending. The whole transition has thrown us all for a loop so not much value in the last week of data anyway. Best to consider it all no change this this week

Submitted by sdrealtor on September 30, 2020 - 11:39am.

I wouldnt read anything into listing activity. Its been a mess the last week and we should see some catch up. You may see a surge of listings this week due to that. Id call it a trend if it keeps going for a couple weeks. I couldnt even log in yesterday. MLS transition to new platform is still struggling to get it right. Sorry no update this week. Not that Id put credence in it but I could not even pull it yesterday.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 6, 2020 - 12:39pm.

Going to try to get this rolling again. the transition to the new platform has been very glitchy and I dont completely trust the data yet but we are close

New listings 31 and we need more. A lot more

New Pendings of 34 so the buyers still very active. We really need to fill more orders the next couple months before we get to the Spring surge in demand

Closed sales at 36 and the number for September were way up over last year. Like 40% + up for September

Price reductions down to 8. Virtually not happening unless someone shot way too high

Total houses for sale down to 90.

Just a note to how crazy it is. I ran into a fixer in MM priced just under $500K. Should have been priced at $550K and it went well over that. It had over 70 offers! Im sure a lot were flipper/investors but that is an insane number. Even if 50 were investors that is a ton of unfilled orders out there.

Submitted by Escoguy on October 9, 2020 - 9:04am.

70 offers! wow, I feel like mine was easy with 10

Even if I (we) don't respond to these updates, it is actually very helpful you do them. Not that I'm planning any major actions other than the one I have under contract.

But am thinking of looking at condos closer to the coast in not too distant future.

:)

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 9, 2020 - 4:41pm.

My pleasure. The idea that there are 70 people even ready to jump gives us an idea of the depth of the demand. I think we are pretty darn solid on the downside. Upside is hard to predict but dont feel like there's a lot of downside risk out there right now

This one might be even more shocking to me. Its in my hood. These were the lowest quality homes in the least expensive section of the community, house is just meh upgraded inside for the community and its got big powerlines behind it.

But its got a 17,000 sq ft lot with lots of grass and a pool which apparently is a huge draw. Was listed for $1.25M and closed for $1.38M. Oh and there were 18 offers from people willing to live with all that for a big yard with pool.

Gotta sign off and start digging in back!

https://www.zillow.com/homes/2146-Corte-...?

Submitted by profhoff on October 11, 2020 - 1:56pm.

sdrealtor, what's your sense of the tight SFH homes in the gated communities near the beach in c'bad off Poinsettia? The houses aren't massive, the backyards are postage stamp tiny, but it's west of the 5 and a few minutes walk from the beach.

Submitted by Andrew32 on October 12, 2020 - 1:23pm.

profhoff - are looking to purchase to live or as an investment property?

I’ve been eyeing 92011 to buy in the next few months (currently renting in PQ) and one concern that is keeping me from seriously considering coastal neighborhoods like Waters End is the # of a vacation rentals I see on Airbnb/VBRO. Right now, there are 5+ in Waters End alone.

for me at least, i feel like that will take away from the community aspect of buying into a neighborhood (presumably for good schools + families).

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 12, 2020 - 2:50pm.

profhoff wrote:
sdrealtor, what's your sense of the tight SFH homes in the gated communities near the beach in c'bad off Poinsettia? The houses aren't massive, the backyards are postage stamp tiny, but it's west of the 5 and a few minutes walk from the beach.

I think you mentioned you are off to Encinitas/Leucadia so thinking you have one there wondering what to do with. Id hold onto it. I think those will do just fine as there arent any new sfr's coming in that area again on any scale.

The area will see some more commercial development over time but who knows how long that will take. It will be hotly contested by local government and held to high standards to preserve what is a spectacular spot. The new hotel will bring high end travellers some of whom will look to return to longer term accomodations. Its all upside there IMO

It is in the coastal zone so the AirBnB's that Andrew would decry as a homeowner are possible. Wouldnt be surprised to see them hit 4 to 5K a week in the next decade.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 12, 2020 - 2:52pm.

Andrew32 wrote:
profhoff - are looking to purchase to live or as an investment property?

I’ve been eyeing 92011 to buy in the next few months (currently renting in PQ) and one concern that is keeping me from seriously considering coastal neighborhoods like Waters End is the # of a vacation rentals I see on Airbnb/VBRO. Right now, there are 5+ in Waters End alone.

for me at least, i feel like that will take away from the community aspect of buying into a neighborhood (presumably for good schools + families).

Id stick to the east side of the 5 if buying for a family as a long term residence. Living that close to the beach comes with lots of things most dont consider until they get there. You really have to want to live by the beach and use it almost daily for it to make sense IMO. Ive been around here for 30 years selling real estate most of that time so I think I have a good sense of things.

Submitted by profhoff on October 13, 2020 - 10:54am.

The gated communities off Poinsettia have CCRs against weekly rentals. Right now, min rentals are monthly and the smallest houses go for ~$5k and up per month.

Poinsettia Cove has a listing over $1.6m right now that everyone is keeping an eye on.

A listing in Waters End in a poor location just went pending in 4 days at $1.21m list and it's the smallest model.

Another house is Waters End recently closed over $1.35m - fully loaded.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 13, 2020 - 2:56pm.

Gotcha those CCR's will make it nicer for owners. Waters End is a nice spot and I dont see much downside to holding onto something there. If I owned one Id furnish it really nicely and look to rent it out to people who are remodelling homes or dealing with insurance repairs where they get reimbursed for temporary housing. They tend to have nice big budgets and love the opportunity to spend a few months by the beach. Should be able to get $7 to 8K a month easy that way maybe more doing 2 to 6 month rentals.

Submitted by gzz on October 13, 2020 - 3:50pm.

I feel a sense of calmness being very close to the ocean. I don't even go to the beach much anymore, but the sense of calmness and contentedness is worth a premium.

Seeing people walk by on the sidewalk excited to be headed to the beach is also nice.

Speaking of 17,000sq ft lots, there was a lot in the residential section of Newport Ave to the east of Ebers street that was 17,500sq ft, and it sold for $4.7 million!

It has a commanding ocean view and a great location, walking distance to Newport's business district, but two blocks of quiet SFH area as a buffer.

Still, that price is quite high compared to other sales.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 14, 2020 - 1:12pm.

Update time. Reporting of umbers still a little glitchy but getting better.

New listings 37 thats more! keep it coming

New Pendings of 36 buyers still very active.

Closed sales at 27 which may be reporting issue but lower and maybe due to closings clustering more toward month ends

Price reductions up to 13. Virtually all at high end of 1.5 or higher so nothing for most buyers

Total houses for sale up to 99. Still very thin below and just over $1M

Ran into a nice La Costa Twin home last week with a client. Was priced at 750K. Per comps its shouldnt have gone much higher. It went much highher with a bunch of offers

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 20, 2020 - 8:29pm.

Update time. Reporting of umbers still a little glitchy but getting better.

New listings 45 thats more and a good sign! keep it coming

New Pendings of 44 buyers still very active and more inventory easily consumed by raging market.

Closed sales at 24 which feels low and may be reporting issue we'll see

Price reductions only 4. Why bother, someone will buy it

Total houses for sale up to 110. Still very thin below and just over $1M. Median listing price is 1.65M

Client ran into 17 offers on a nice townhome in the area. Last sale was 675K but this one was nicer location, 6 months later and very nicely remodelled. Only 6 were countered of the 17 including us. 3 of those 6 were all cash. We offered 50K+ over with no loan or appraisal contingency, short inspection window and a free month rent back to seller. We werent gonna make it easy on the other buyers. Still didnt get it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 27, 2020 - 2:04pm.

Update time. Reporting of numbers finally seems to have gotten reliable. That makes this all even more astounding. Just a note to people watching the market. Other markets may not be this crazy.

New listings 22 thats a big drop which is what we expect to happen as we head into the holiday season but not good news for buyers here.

New Pendings of 48! More than double the new listings and a -26! Easily the biggest inventory loss of the year at -26

Thats astounding in the face of limited inventory and a number we saw exceeded only during Summer peak. The buyers arent slowing down yet which bodes for a strong Spring ahead if it continues.

Closed sales at 37 so those high pending counts we have been seeing are showing up now.

Price reductions only 5. Why bother, someone will buy it

Total houses for sale back down to 92. Only 4 below $1m and Im confident 3 of those are negotiating with multple offers. Median listing price is 1.725M up from 1.65M last week

Submitted by gzz on October 27, 2020 - 4:09pm.

It’s frustrating to see so few sellers price aggressively above 2019/early 2020 prices, or reduce too quickly after listing.

It is nice to see the “upper middle” end of the local market be the strongest segment for once. Also nice to see SD outperforming LA/SF/Seattle. We’re really a relative deal compared to, say, 2015.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 27, 2020 - 6:17pm.

They are pricing agressively up here. In my hood prices are $100 to 150K higher than this time last year. We are catching up with CV

Submitted by gzz on November 3, 2020 - 11:51am.

SDR: I spoke too soon. Just got a bunch of high but reasonable new listings in 92107.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 3, 2020 - 2:46pm.

gzz wrote:
SDR: I spoke too soon. Just got a bunch of high but reasonable new listings in 92107.
It takes some time for the new comps to close. Until they do they generally price near existing comps and let the market take prices where it may. Once new comps from bidding wars close the new bar is set

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 4, 2020 - 11:11am.

Election Update time. ran numbers yesterday and more of the same.

New listings 19 thats a small drop which is what we expect to happen as we head into the holiday season but not good news for buyers here.

New Pendings of 27! Lowest since May as there just isnt much out there to buy. It was overdue to drop but still a -8.

Closed sales at 32 in loine with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 8. If you havent sold you are too high

Total houses for sale still 92. All 4 of those sub $1m homes sold from last week. Median listing price is 1.695M. Just bouncing around but the real take on this is Holy Cow how did we get here?

Oh and good news for clients of mine. After battling through 15 -20 offers on a bunch of properties they got one. We only offered on the best properties learning a long way what it would take to win. We know what the closing prices will be like in the coming weeks on the homes we missed out on which is critical in a market like this. We let lots of other buyers get their orders filled on inferior properties. They got what looks like a good one that could be home for 10 to 20 years if they want it to be. Happy for them:)

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 10, 2020 - 9:03pm.

Joe time Update. This week looked like last week

New listings 19 less coming on as we head towards holidays.

New Pendings of 30. Limited choices but buyers still rattling the cages. It was a drop of -11.

Closed sales at 34 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 12. Lower it now or wait until after the holidays to sell.

Total houses for sale down to 86. Median listing price is 1.68M.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 17, 2020 - 5:35pm.

Update time and first new look in a LONG time

New listings 28 and a reversal in the recent trend.

New Pendings of 20. Limited choices and holidays upon us so no surprise there but...

Thats a plus 8 for the week which is significant in that we have not seen a positive # (besides a couple +1 weeks) since May. Im not gonna call it enough to read much into it but if things do change this would be the frist sign if that.

Closed sales at 37 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 12. Lower it now or wait until after the holidays to sell.

Total houses for sale back up to 101

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 25, 2020 - 1:09pm.

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday and we are back to the old trend.

New listings 16 - looks like sellers are starting to shut it down for the holidays

New Pendings of 35 - but buyers sure as heck are not!

Thats a minus 19 for the week. We are back to declining inventory and last week looks like an anomaly.

Closed sales at 34 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions up to 8. All ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 86 with median of nearly $1.8M. Only the really expensive stuff is left

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 2, 2020 - 12:29pm.

Update time. Ran the numbers yesterday and we are back to the old trend.

New listings 10 - sellers really shutting it down for the holidays

New Pendings of 27 - but buyers sure as heck are not!

Thats a -17 for the week.

Closed sales at 34 in line with expectations based upon sales activity.

Price reductions down to 3. Still all high ticket stuff

Total houses for sale back down to 84 with median of $1.825M.

Anecdotally another model match for my house just closed. My model hasnt had many sales over the years but there were 2 this past Summer almost 10% higher than last year. Then a 3rd came on and just closed another 5% higher and all cash. A 4th just listed with a range starting at the level of the 2 sales this Summer with the top 5% above the most recent one. Its in a worse location, with inferior lot and upgrades to the others. If it sells in that range that would be nuts but I guess thats where we are at. It seems like prices up here are almost even with CV now

And in positive holiday news. Client in escrow on a great property in Encinitas after losing out on several others in bidding wars. Its got great access to beach area and he's thrilled. I wrote a personal letter to seller on this one that hit all the right notes. We met them and she said it had her in tears. Sometimes these things are about more than just money. Happy Holidays everyone!

Submitted by svelte on December 6, 2020 - 9:05am.

Happy Holidays sdr. Thanks for the reports from the trenches.

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