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San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis |
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I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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May 2012 Resale Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 23, 2012 - 2:41pm
Apologies for the tardiness of this month's rodeo.
I'll start with the chart I've been watching most closely -- months of inventory (inverted) in blue, and annualized monthly price change in red: ![]() Months of inventory is now at the lowest level in many years, and as foreshadowed by the above graph, prices have been on the rise. (category: )
April 2012 Resale Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on May 14, 2012 - 6:18pm
Inventory has remained super tight, and as the historical
relationship depicted in the following chart would have predicted,
prices have been on the rise:
![]() (category: )
My Day Job - Year-End 2011 EditionSubmitted by Rich Toscano on May 11, 2012 - 8:09am
My company, Pacific Capital Associates, has recently completed the
third-party examination of our investment track record for
2011. (For background on this, see my inaugural explanation
of these annual performance updates). Here it is, in chart
form... you can click on the chart for more detail and loads of fun
disclosures:
(category: )
March 2012 Resale Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on April 15, 2012 - 6:56pm
Due to time constraints I am going to do a graph-only version of the
rodeo this month. Except for this part, I guess.
I will quickly note the following:
(category: )
Why Bubbles Are BadSubmitted by Rich Toscano on April 1, 2012 - 2:15pm
I've often discussed how the three industries that I refer to as the
"housing bubble beneficiary sectors" took the brunt of the
recessionary job losses. In this post, I have updated some
graphs showing the enormous degree to which this is the case.
The bubble beneficiary sectors, so named because they grew like weeds as a result of the housing boom, are: construction, finance (which includes real estate transactions), and retail (not directly related to housing like the other two, but a bubble beneficiary nonetheless as a result of vigorous home equity-financed consumer spending). In the graphs below, I have grouped these three sectors together as the "Housing Bubble Sectors" and charted the change in their size alongside that of the non-bubble private sector industries and government. I took these graphs all the way back to the beginning of 2007 because the bubble sectors started to deflate alongside the housing bubble even before the recession officially began in December of that year. In order to avoid seasonality problems, I started and ended the graphs on the same month (January 2007 through January 2012). This first graph shows the number of jobs lost in each of these three categories: ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Employment Backed Off in Early 2012Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 30, 2012 - 6:10pm
According to the Employment Development Department latest estimates,
seasonally-adjusted employment in San Diego is estimated to have
dropped between December and January, and then to have rebounded
somewhat February:
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Case-Shiller Index Down in JanuarySubmitted by Rich Toscano on March 27, 2012 - 6:13pm
The Case-Shiller index of San Diego home prices declined once again
in January, falling by 1.6 percent for the high-priced tier, 1.0
percent for the mid-priced tier, and .2 percent for the low-priced
tier. (The tiers represent, respectively, the top, middle, and
bottom one-third of homes sold by price). The overall San
Diego index fell by 1.1 percent.
As the following graph shows that the middle and high tiers are now below the post-bubble low points they hit in early 2009. (I guess that means I should remove the word "2009 trough" from these graphs). ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
February 2012 Resale Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on March 16, 2012 - 1:24pm
The median price per square foot was mixed last month, with single
family homes up 2.0% but condos walloped for 4.3%. In
aggregate, prices by this measure were mildly up simply because a
lot more single family homes than condos sell each month. In
any case, the single family series tends to be smoother and a more
reliable indicator of what's really going on, so I'd say February
was a mild win (or at least a tie) for prices:
![]() (category: )
Case-Shiller Index Ended Down for 2011Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 28, 2012 - 7:15pm
The Case-Shiller index of San Diego home prices declined across the
board in December:
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
January 2012 Resale Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on February 19, 2012 - 6:24pm
The median price per square foot of sold San Diego homes dropped once again in January: ![]() (category: )
A Lost Decade-Plus for San Diego Home PricesSubmitted by Rich Toscano on February 5, 2012 - 12:14pm
The latest Case-Shiller data, released last week, provided a
not-very-clear picture of home price trends.
The overall index fell by .9 percent between October and November. There was some serious divergence amongst price tiers, though: the high tier fell by a mild .4 percent, the middle tier was whacked for 1.7 percent, and the low tier was actually up by .4 percent. ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Piggington Jumps the SharkSubmitted by Rich Toscano on January 29, 2012 - 11:39pm
I have bought a house in San Diego. I'm also going to start
putting up guest posts by Ted McGinley.
This (the house buying part) shouldn't be a huge shock for people who've been reading the site of late, because I've talked a lot about how it makes sense to buy in certain situations. That said, I will briefly outline my thought process here. After the recent leg down in interest rates, monthly payments are the lowest compared to incomes and rents than they've been in the history of the data, and are quite dramatically below their median historical levels: ![]() (category: )
Ending a Good Year for San Diego JobsSubmitted by Rich Toscano on January 22, 2012 - 6:09pm
The year 2011 was a positive one for San Diego employment. The
number of local jobs rose in absolute terms...
![]() ...but the more important seasonally-adjusted data shows that employment rose even when accounting for holiday hiring.... read more at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Radio Week, ApparentlySubmitted by Rich Toscano on January 19, 2012 - 8:29pm
Scott Lewis of VoiceOfSanDiego.org just invited me to appear on the VOSD radio program this week. The show be recorded tomorrow but will air on AM 600 KOGO at the ungodly hour of 7:30AM this Saturday. Fortunately for people who don't want to think about housing and economics on an early weekend morning (most people, I can only assume), an archived version will eventually be uploaded here. (category: )
On the Radio with Jim the Realtor -- Monday 1/23Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 18, 2012 - 11:29am
Jim Klinge has kindly invited me to join him on his new radio show this Monday, Jan 23 at 8PM PST. The show will be live, so you can call in to ask questions. You can also ask a question or suggest a topic beforehand by posting here. I'm not exactly sure how you tune in, but I expect that if you visit Jim's site shortly before 8PM on Monday, all will be made clear. (category: )
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