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San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis |
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~Welcome to the Econo-Almanac~
I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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December 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on January 9, 2016 - 8:52am
![]() December is always an unusual month in that closed sales typically increase (presumably people trying to jam the deal through before year-end), while pendings sales drop (presumably due to holiday disruption): ![]() (category: )
October 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on November 22, 2015 - 3:16pm
Prices have flattened out over the past few months, as might be
expected during this time of year. This is most easily seen in
the Case Shiller proxy, which uses a 3 month average:
![]() (category: )
August 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 10, 2015 - 9:19am
While the scarcity of inventory has eased a bit, supply is still
pretty tight in the grand scheme of things. Prices have
accordingly continued to be pressured upwards, with the price per
square foot experiencing a 2% pop last month. Here are the MoM
and YoY stats...
![]() ...and here is the single graph that I think best sums up the state of things (showing as it does the relationship between months of inventory and price changes, as well as recent trends in both those things): ![]() (category: )
Shambling Towards Affordability, Mid-Year 2015Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 26, 2015 - 2:54pm
Once again, the traditional "Shambling Towards Affordability" title
for this series proves inapt. The market does have a bit of a
shamble to its step, but the direction in which it lumbers is
distinctly un-affordable. (In price terms, anyway... low rates
do ease the sting, but that's a separate topic to be addressed
below).
While valuations have crept up a bit over the past year, the big picture hasn't changed much: home prices are significantly higher, when compared with local rents and incomes, than they typically have been over the almost 4-decade history of the data: ![]() (category: )
June 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 15, 2015 - 2:50pm
The local housing market was looking strong as of last month.
Prices continued to creep higher, sales were robust, and inventory,
while slightly higher, failed to outpace the increase in demand.
Months of inventory is not as low as it was during the 2013 feeding frenzy, but it's just about the lowest since -- if that doesn't change, we can expect further upward price pressure immediately ahead. ![]() (category: )
May 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 16, 2015 - 6:07pm
Hi all. Not much has changed from last month's update, so I'm
just going to do a chart dump and dispense with the words.
Starting now.
![]() (category: )
March -- April 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on May 20, 2015 - 4:46pm
The market's been pretty hot, by which I mean, demand seems to be
outstripping supply. I base this statement on the below chart, which
shows that while months of inventory is higher than it was during
the spring 2013 feeding frenzy, it is lower than this time last
year:
![]() ...and, it's among the lowest we've seen recently outside said feeding frenzy: (category: )
February 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on March 22, 2015 - 5:44pm
![]() As of January, there was a big divergence between pending and closed sales: closed sales were very weak (even considering the seasonality), but pendings were strong. This gap narrowed substantially in February as closed sales made a big catch up move. Check it out in the graph below... closed sales were unusually low in January, but a lot closer to recent years (albeit still somewhat low) in February. ![]() (category: )
January 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on February 7, 2015 - 2:53pm
Sorry Piggs, I didn't get around to posting the December
numbers. But let us not dwell on the past*, and instead
soldier on to the January numbers.
![]() *Though if you really want to, the December data is all in the charts below. (category: )
November 2014 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on December 21, 2014 - 3:20pm
Hi everyone -- I'm going to keep it brief and just do a graph-only
version this month. Happy holidays to all!
![]() (category: )
October 2014 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on November 28, 2014 - 5:50pm
Better late than never (but in my defense it was another uneventful
month):
![]() (category: )
September 2014 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2014 - 4:17pm
Here's the big picture -- not a lot of movement last month:
![]() Drilling down to some individual graphs, the price per square foot continued in its meandering ways: ![]() (category: )
August 2014 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 17, 2014 - 1:03pm
Here it is in a nutshell:
![]() Charts and some thoughts below... (category: )
July 2014 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on August 10, 2014 - 1:35pm
I think we can agree that the typical Econo-Almanac reader is both
unusually attractive, and a busy go-getter with places to be and
things to do. Things besides reading a real estate blog.
It is for you Coffee Achievers1 that I present this convenient new2
table summarizing the month's statistics:
![]() 1 Youths, please see this important educational video. 2 It is unclear to me why I didn't start doing this like 8 years ago or something. (category: )
June 2014 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 16, 2014 - 6:34pm
Well now... the median price per square foot for single family homes
(which is the best real-ish time price indicator) surged by 3.3%
last month:
![]() (category: )
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