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San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis |
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I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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February Housing Data: big jump in prices; inventory approaching early-2013 lowsSubmitted by Rich Toscano on March 20, 2017 - 12:09pm
The median price per square foot surged in February:
![]() This level of price increase is in some sense what should be expected given the pretty severe lack of inventory, but to see prices go up so much in a single month is unusual: ![]() (category: )
VOSD podcast: high prices vs. low payments, and is it a good time to buy?Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 3, 2017 - 6:05pm
I went on the Voice of San Diego podcast to discuss my last couple of
articles for them, including:
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Valuation update (with bonus graphs!)Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 1, 2017 - 12:11pm
I just posted an article at Voice of San Diego which, along with its
companion piece, will serve as background to these ongoing valuation
updates. Here's what they discuss:
So for starters, check those out if you haven't. The second article in particular might be of interest even to old-timers, as it's the most thorough piece (that I can remember anyway) I've written on the role of mortgage rates. OK, with that background behind us, let's check in on the data as of year-end 2016. Here is the primary chart... San Diego home valuations: ![]() (category: )
VOSD: Monthly Payments Low, Despite High Valuations -- But Rates Aren't a Big Driver of Home PricesSubmitted by Rich Toscano on February 28, 2017 - 7:06pm
I just put up a new piece at Voice of San Diego discussing the
following:
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January 2017 Housing Mini-RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on February 23, 2017 - 1:30pm
I'm working on some valuation stuff to be posted soon. Meanwhile,
here's a selection of graphs on the January resale data. Take
note of that steep decline in months of inventory from this time last
year... if that doesn't rectify itself, it's a sign of higher prices
immediately ahead.
![]() ![]() (category: )
December 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on January 25, 2017 - 4:41pm
Here's the final score for the year 2016:
![]() Looking at the single family number, which gives the best read, prices increased a couple % more than inflation, and roughly the same as wage and rent growth. As one would expect in a given year, all things being equal. This time they're not equal in that valuations began the year at an elevated level. However, as discussed in the afore-linked article, perhaps valuations can remain higher than usual while interest rates remain lower than usual. Back to the monthly data, prices did pull back, but that's reasonable at this time of year: ![]() (category: )
November 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on December 11, 2016 - 5:54pm
Months of inventory crept up a bit, but still made for the lowest
November in recent years:
![]() The 3-month average of prices crept up as well: ![]() (category: )
VOSD: Minus the Bubble, San Diego Homes Are at Their Most Expensive EverSubmitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2016 - 9:23pm
I wrote a piece for voiceofsandiego.org, the intent of which was to introduce people to my preferred valuation approach (and to give a quick overview of where we are now). Probably not a whole lot new for longtime Piggs, but possibly of interest to newer readers. Here's the synopsis: A good approach to measuring the “expensiveness” of San Diego housing is to compare home prices with local rents and incomes, which together encompass the most important drivers of home prices. This shows homes to be unusually pricey right now, though nowhere near levels reached during the bubble. And the link: Minus the Bubble, San Diego Homes Are at Their Most Expensive Ever (category: )
September 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2016 - 9:11pm
Just a quick update on the September data. Here's an overview:
![]() Inventory remained very tight, with months of inventory easily at the lowest level in the past four years: ![]() (category: )
Valuation PreviewSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 25, 2016 - 9:45am
Hi all - I'm finally getting around to updating the valuation data;
a full writeup is forthcoming but here in the meantime are some
charts:
![]() (category: )
August 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 24, 2016 - 12:19pm
Prices have leveled off in the last couple of months...
![]() (category: )
July 2016 Monthly Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on August 21, 2016 - 5:37pm
Well, hello there! Can I interest you in some housing data? Some
charts and graphs, perhaps, and possibly even a table?
I'll start with what I think is the key graph in this (currently undersupplied) market: months of inventory, which combines supply and demand into a single handy stat. We can see here that while supply increased compared to demand, that is typical for the season, and we remain slightly below last year's levels. ![]() (category: )
June 2016 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 16, 2016 - 2:27pm
Home prices continued their general uptrend last month. The monthly
graph of median price/square foot is a bit noisy...
![]() (category: )
April 2016 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on May 17, 2016 - 9:25pm
After a little dip in February, San Diego home prices* experienced a
sizable pop in March and April.
![]() (category: )
February 2016 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on March 15, 2016 - 9:09pm
Supply is still tight out there, with February's months of active
inventory lower than either of the past two years:
![]() (category: )
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