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San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis |
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I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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November 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on December 11, 2016 - 5:54pm
Months of inventory crept up a bit, but still made for the lowest
November in recent years:
![]() The 3-month average of prices crept up as well: ![]() (category: )
VOSD: Minus the Bubble, San Diego Homes Are at Their Most Expensive EverSubmitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2016 - 9:23pm
I wrote a piece for voiceofsandiego.org, the intent of which was to introduce people to my preferred valuation approach (and to give a quick overview of where we are now). Probably not a whole lot new for longtime Piggs, but possibly of interest to newer readers. Here's the synopsis: A good approach to measuring the “expensiveness” of San Diego housing is to compare home prices with local rents and incomes, which together encompass the most important drivers of home prices. This shows homes to be unusually pricey right now, though nowhere near levels reached during the bubble. And the link: Minus the Bubble, San Diego Homes Are at Their Most Expensive Ever (category: )
September 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2016 - 9:11pm
Just a quick update on the September data. Here's an overview:
![]() Inventory remained very tight, with months of inventory easily at the lowest level in the past four years: ![]() (category: )
Valuation PreviewSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 25, 2016 - 9:45am
Hi all - I'm finally getting around to updating the valuation data;
a full writeup is forthcoming but here in the meantime are some
charts:
![]() (category: )
August 2016 Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 24, 2016 - 12:19pm
Prices have leveled off in the last couple of months...
![]() (category: )
July 2016 Monthly Housing DataSubmitted by Rich Toscano on August 21, 2016 - 5:37pm
Well, hello there! Can I interest you in some housing data? Some
charts and graphs, perhaps, and possibly even a table?
I'll start with what I think is the key graph in this (currently undersupplied) market: months of inventory, which combines supply and demand into a single handy stat. We can see here that while supply increased compared to demand, that is typical for the season, and we remain slightly below last year's levels. ![]() (category: )
June 2016 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 16, 2016 - 2:27pm
Home prices continued their general uptrend last month. The monthly
graph of median price/square foot is a bit noisy...
![]() (category: )
April 2016 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on May 17, 2016 - 9:25pm
After a little dip in February, San Diego home prices* experienced a
sizable pop in March and April.
![]() (category: )
February 2016 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on March 15, 2016 - 9:09pm
Supply is still tight out there, with February's months of active
inventory lower than either of the past two years:
![]() (category: )
December 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on January 9, 2016 - 8:52am
![]() December is always an unusual month in that closed sales typically increase (presumably people trying to jam the deal through before year-end), while pendings sales drop (presumably due to holiday disruption): ![]() (category: )
October 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on November 22, 2015 - 3:16pm
Prices have flattened out over the past few months, as might be
expected during this time of year. This is most easily seen in
the Case Shiller proxy, which uses a 3 month average:
![]() (category: )
August 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 10, 2015 - 9:19am
While the scarcity of inventory has eased a bit, supply is still
pretty tight in the grand scheme of things. Prices have
accordingly continued to be pressured upwards, with the price per
square foot experiencing a 2% pop last month. Here are the MoM
and YoY stats...
![]() ...and here is the single graph that I think best sums up the state of things (showing as it does the relationship between months of inventory and price changes, as well as recent trends in both those things): ![]() (category: )
Shambling Towards Affordability, Mid-Year 2015Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 26, 2015 - 2:54pm
Once again, the traditional "Shambling Towards Affordability" title
for this series proves inapt. The market does have a bit of a
shamble to its step, but the direction in which it lumbers is
distinctly un-affordable. (In price terms, anyway... low rates
do ease the sting, but that's a separate topic to be addressed
below).
While valuations have crept up a bit over the past year, the big picture hasn't changed much: home prices are significantly higher, when compared with local rents and incomes, than they typically have been over the almost 4-decade history of the data: ![]() (category: )
June 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 15, 2015 - 2:50pm
The local housing market was looking strong as of last month.
Prices continued to creep higher, sales were robust, and inventory,
while slightly higher, failed to outpace the increase in demand.
Months of inventory is not as low as it was during the 2013 feeding frenzy, but it's just about the lowest since -- if that doesn't change, we can expect further upward price pressure immediately ahead. ![]() (category: )
May 2015 Housing Data RodeoSubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 16, 2015 - 6:07pm
Hi all. Not much has changed from last month's update, so I'm
just going to do a chart dump and dispense with the words.
Starting now.
![]() (category: )
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