Kelly Bennett’s 2007 housing market wrapup quotes local housing analyst Peter Dennehy as saying that "a lot of people believe that this will be the year that the elusive bottom is reached." Mr. Dennehy is surely correct — many people believe the bottom of the housing market is close at hand. But are they right to do so?
It’s true that prices have taken a protracted hit. According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, San Diego prices have in aggregate been falling for about two years now and, as of October, had fallen 13.3 percent from their late-2005 peak.
But this decline, steep as it may seem, must be viewed in the context of the enormous speculative bubble that preceeded it.
read more at voiceofsandiego.org
But, but…. but by realtor
But, but…. but by realtor said prices never go down!
Bottoming out in 2010 at the
Bottoming out in 2010 at the earliest if things start nosediving fast (and that’s very optimistic), more like 2012 (end of the world according to the Mayan calendar, how appropriate) and flat for years to follow. Actually flat for eternity if the world does in fact come to an end ; )
I apologize for asking a
I apologize for asking a dumb question, but must the gap between rents and incomes narrow? In otherwords, are rents too high?
“End of line.”
As the cost basis of housing
As the cost basis of housing declines, because of lower prices, short sales, and/or discounted REO sales, rents too will decrease. They did in the early nineties. At that time, I negotiated having my rent decreased three times in 3 years, by simply showing comparable rents for less and threatening to leave, before I finally bought an REO in 1995.
But it’s much harder to negotiate with a landlord whose back is up against the wall with a highly encumbered residential unit. Look elsewhere and when you find something you like, lock in a one-year lease with unilateral options (in your favor only) to renew at the same rent or with a small increase. It’s just like negotiating a job salary. You’ll never have more negotiating leverage than you do at the outset. Write in a unilateral option (in your favor only) to cancel the lease with two, instead of one-month’s notice. You can write into a lease anything you want. If a landlord needs a rent paying body bad enough, they’ll agree to anything. In the early nineties, I knew a guy who agreed to co-sign a lease for someone because the landlord required it, but only agreed to if the lease contained a 10-year option to buy at the market price at that time. The landlord would have sold for the market price at that time had he had an offer, so he agreed. I was the loan officer when that co-signer exercised his option to buy eight years later. He was able to buy that property (in Santee) for the option price of $150,000 even though it appraised for $260,000 and he never had to contribute anything for co-signing the lease because the tenant (a friend of his) always paid the rent. This happens more often than you think.
“I apologize for asking a
“I apologize for asking a dumb question, but must the gap between rents and incomes narrow? In otherwords, are rents too high? ”
Rents are already falling in San Diego. The Union ran an article on that last month.
in my area of coastal north
in my area of coastal north county, my rent is pretty low already. comparable places are renting for about $200 more per month than what i am currently paying. the fact that rents are dropping or stagnating is good for me because although i may not be able to have my rent reduced my landlord will have a very tough time trying to raise the rent.
“End of line.”
Wow, such profound words
Wow, such profound words from yet another real-estate “analyst”:
“You have to believe that at some point this housing crisis will work itself out. Even if they go ahead and sell all of the foreclosures for cents on the dollar, that would be better than talking about them all the time.”
It’s a bit like saying to a child that you’ve gotta believe in Santa Clause despite all the evidence to the contrary. OK, mr “analyst”, go ahead, continue to delude yourself, but spare us the schtick…it’s is wearing thin. The sheep/children aren’t buying it any more.
oh for fucks sake… why
oh for fucks sake… why are you such a bitter Irishman ???? you made some money.. you’re out of the market.. now enjoy life instead of putting “quotes” around real estate professional’s “professional” opinion… geeesh (wink)