My “suburban compound” search so far: leaning toward Rancho SD.

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Submitted by gzz on July 23, 2022 - 2:34pm

1. I had no idea big parts of La Mesa were so urbanized. 5-6 floor buildings, lots of dense transit corridor construction. Mostly looks upscale and attractive, though there are run-down pockets. Doesn’t really feel like a suburb or mich quieter and lower density than OB.

2. I like Rancho San Diego and maybe the eastern part of Granite Hills the best so far. Best value on large homes, large lots, not too far into the country.

3. RSD seems a bit disconnected from the rest of the market. It didn’t go up nearly as much after the crash. The houses and lots are too expensive big and distant to ever go downscale, but the nearby downscale areas and its distance from the “greater La Jolla” area of high end job growth makes me think similar areas to the north like Santee will appreciate more. I might save $50k in monthly payments over 4 years but miss out on 150k in appreciation.

Submitted by gzz on July 24, 2022 - 7:34am.

When cars self drive, distant suburbs will appreciate more since an extra 15 minute commute is just an extra 15 minutes playing on your phone or watching netflix, which you were going to do anyway.

Unfortunately I think door to door real self drive is still 8-10 years away.

Submitted by gzz on July 24, 2022 - 3:47pm.

For now, East County is much weaker than OB/PL/Clairemont/UTC. More inventory (2.0-2.5 month supply in the larger zips), more huge price reductions. The big price reduction houses all seem way overpriced beforehand, so I am not reading too much into it.

More significant is there are a lot of fairly priced places cutting prices 50-100k after leas than 3 weeks on the market. That is something I haven’t seen before in large numbers.

Submitted by Hobie on July 24, 2022 - 4:58pm.

Is your search just for investment or are considering moving to a space with more room for your family? If kiddos, are you looking at the schools?

Submitted by gzz on July 24, 2022 - 8:38pm.

Looking for a 2-family property where the smaller one is for my parents and still 2 bedroom and 900+ SF. I want some hobby farm space too, so more lookout at old homes on big lots. I can’t afford the new homes on big lots.

1 baby born in early 2022, hope to have a couple more. I feel like the difference between average and the absolute best schools is small for K to 2nd, so my school quality concerns are not until around 2030. Looking hardest in the 1.4-1.7 range, up to 2.3 could be possible if the perfect place pops up, but seems like the listings that high are numerically rare and not great values. To put it another way, there are giant improvements between 1.0m and 1.4m homes, but a lot of the 2.0-2.3s the additional value is hard to see.

The proposed Cottonwood Sand Mine looks like a moderate negative for RSD. There’s heavy local opposition, but at first blush it doesn’t look that bad other than the additional truck traffic. It will only operate for 10 years, and in 3 year phases at each subpart, and there will be a nice bike lane and other substantial “free” upgrades to Willow Glen, and the land will be permanently rewilded and undeveloped. It is possible the EIR draft is understating the noise and air pollution risks.

I just made my first low-ballish offer today. I will look at two more places this week, both around Mt Helix, and then make a few more offers if my initial offer isn’t accepted.

I offered 8% below list, and the list price is pretty fair if the seller is OK waiting since the property is expensive and unique and has already been listed 3 months. It is a strange time to be hunting since, even though I am very bullish long term, semi-rural east county high-end had a good chance of falling 8-10% below peak, maybe even 15%. The people there are San Diego natives in much higher numbers and driving the market there, and they don’t have the high incomes of techie transplants.

Submitted by gzz on July 28, 2022 - 1:16pm.

Making my first east county offer today!

The big rate drop is encouraging.

Zillow says I can refi my house at 4.5 30 year or 3.6 15 year.

At the same time, jumbo rates on zillow are the same for my purchase, despite MND saying they are .8 lower nationwide. The small number of results leads me to believe zillow isn’t a good place to look, though they are great for conventional mortgages.

Submitted by Coronita on July 28, 2022 - 4:14pm.

What? This sounds like a bad idea. It's right up there with going long on Intel, just on a much larger and different scale.

This isn't suburban living...This is rural living...

You sure your wife is ok with living in a rural area?

I mean if you're going to do that you might as well seriously consider St. George.

I think you are trying too hard to prove your financial investment finesse, and your pride is going to lead you into making some pretty interesting decisions that you won't be happy with the results.

Imho, stop and smell the roses. You can't be right all the time and harder you try, worse the decision process will be.

Submitted by gzz on July 28, 2022 - 9:02pm.

Rural isn’t a problem! Rural fringe of a major city can be a great lifestyle.

The offer is on a 1+ acre rural road home but it’s also only 1/2 of a mile from the nearest tract home subdivision and about 1.5 miles from the RSD strip mall area.

I don’t expect it to be profitable initially, I see a good chance of a small further dip, and as I said I don’t think East County is going to perform as well as areas further north. Purely as an investment, I think Santee, Vista and Mira Mesa are best positioned to move upscale as they are already fairly nice and close to high wage job growth.

However, I want my parents on the same lot as me, but a different house. And they want a two-bedroom house so they have a study. I also want gardening and fruit tree space, play areas for my son and future kids. RSD being close to the 94 provides the best value while still feeling upscale.

East County is already weaker than the rest of SD. ~2.5 months of inventory, lots of price reductions, lots of perfectly nice places with reasonable prices sitting on the market.

Submitted by Coronita on July 28, 2022 - 10:16pm.

Good luck to you in your adventures.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 29, 2022 - 7:22am.

Look forward to watching:

"Nezzting in Rancho San Diego" (2022)

and the inevitable sequel

"Fleeing Rancho ZZan Diego" (2024)

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 29, 2022 - 8:42am.

I Live in a very rural part of North county (out in the sticks LOL), I am about 7 miles from town.

It's not for everyone but I like it a lot especially since I have been working remotely the last several years.

Just my two cents.

WalMart delivery still makes it to my door.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 29, 2022 - 9:42am.

Fallbrook? One of my good buds lives off Knottwood. Nice spot

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 29, 2022 - 10:42am.


I feel like courage the cowardly dog sometimes LOL
Just kidding.

Submitted by gzz on July 29, 2022 - 12:53pm.

Fallbrook might be too rural for me, but I still enjoy looking at the listings.

Submitted by flyer on July 29, 2022 - 7:49pm.

gzz, totally understand that you want acreage. We felt the same, but, 20+ years ago in San Diego, we were able to choose a home that has acreage and is still city and beach close. If I were making that decision in today's market, and, if I had to make a choice, I'd probably pass on the rural acreage in order to continue to accommodate our lifestyle.

That said, it sounds like you've checked all of your boxes, so I wish you the best, and I hope it all works out the way you've envisioned.

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