Mortgage Resets + Harvard Hogwash

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 11, 2006 - 12:51pm

Last week featured a couple of interesting housing articles in the local press.

At voiceofsandiego.org, Will Carless has dug up some really compelling info for an article on mortgage resets. Specifically, an estimated 50% of all San Diego mortgage debt has been borrowed at an adjustable rate that will reset by 2010. If rates don't stay nice and low over the next four years all these resets will make a bad situation worse. (This is another clue that the 2010-2011 timeframe might be a good time to start buying San Diego homes hand over fist).

Elsewhere, the Union-Tribune notes that Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies has issued its latest ridiculously optimistic housing survey, San Diego included. If prior surveys by this organization are any indication, the usual permabullish logical lapses are on full display in the 2006 version. I was going to write a bit more about the Harvard report, but the forum participants have already done such a super job of tearing it a new one that I don't have much to add.

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Submitted by sunsetbeachguy2 on June 11, 2006 - 8:42pm.

Harvard's JCHS is quite simply a mouthpiece for the RE industry.

 Per the other posting the advisory board is comprised of RE companies.

 Secondly, every study they have released has been specifically funded by a RE company.

 The most recent one was Masco.

 http://www.masco.com/corporate_information/index.html

The Director of the foundation isn't an economist and his highest degree is a Master's in Town Planning.

 In academia, if a problem is defined narrowly enough any conclusion can be supported, including the study sponsored by Masco about how the builders are smarter this time around, they tightened up their supply chains and aren't over-building.

Submitted by ocrenter on June 11, 2006 - 10:07pm.

there was no mention of anything about investor activities. how would an investor react to the possiblities of losing his investment property that he put zero down for? especially if he's got multiple properties he invested in. how many of those are out there?

maybe I'm just really really unlucky to be renting from one of these guys. but then again, maybe they are so commonplace that it is hard to avoid these folks.

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