MM 3/2 SFR sub 300k

User Forum Topic
Submitted by DWCAP on November 4, 2008 - 9:14pm

It isnt the most amazing property, I never really looked into it, but it sold sub 300k.
I wonder what this could do to comps.

Just trying to bring housing back to piggington.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080063543-79...

Submitted by mike92104 on November 4, 2008 - 9:35pm.

I live right around the corner. It's a nice house, but on a very busy street. New salem runs parallel to Mira Mesa and all the locals use it to avoid the major street. Glad to see something close for less that $300,00 though. I don't understand why mira mesa isn't cheaper. It's a very boring area house wise.

Submitted by ibjames on November 6, 2008 - 1:08pm.

mike92104 wrote:
I live right around the corner. It's a nice house, but on a very busy street. New salem runs parallel to Mira Mesa and all the locals use it to avoid the major street. Glad to see something close for less that $300,00 though. I don't understand why mira mesa isn't cheaper. It's a very boring area house wise.

I hope it inspires some lower pricing.. I don't understand why MM isn't cheaper either..

Submitted by Coronita on November 6, 2008 - 1:11pm.

It's still pretty expensive though. $242/sqft????

Submitted by an on November 6, 2008 - 2:30pm.

What do you consider expensive and cheap FLU? @ $279k, with 6% interest rate and 20% down, mortgage payment would be around $1300/month. If you + tax + insurance - tax deduction, your monthly payment would be around $1500/month. A 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa goes for around $1500/month. Rental of such house can easily be around $1700-1800/month.

Submitted by Coronita on November 6, 2008 - 2:34pm.

I was thinking around 225ish/sqft. But that's just me... Guess that isn't gonna happen.

I don't think you can find a 6% loan on a rental these days.

Submitted by an on November 6, 2008 - 2:38pm.

I know you can't get that kind of loan on a rental, but I'm just using it as a rent vs buy argument. As a rental, you probably have to put down at least 30% as well. I'm not saying $279k is the bottom. I'm just saying when you compare with rent, it's cheaper than rent. So it's no longer "expensive" to me. It could very well go to 225/sq-ft or even $200/sq-ft. But even at $279k, you're already under "fundamental" when you compare it to rent. Everything below that is just gravy.

Submitted by DWCAP on November 6, 2008 - 2:57pm.

fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:
I was thinking around 225ish/sqft. But that's just me... Guess that isn't gonna happen.

I don't think you can find a 6% loan on a rental these days.

I think these houses will bottom out right about here, ~275K, unless we get a nasty recession. Unemployment starts hitting 8%+ in san diego and we could start to see more reductions. I hope we see some more start to hit in this range, maybe a few not on major roads.

Submitted by peterb on November 6, 2008 - 3:22pm.

Give it a few more months and you'll see what you're looking for...
Prices are based on supply and demand. And demand is gonna start to trickle. But supply is going to rise...

Submitted by ibjames on November 6, 2008 - 5:11pm.

DWCAP wrote:
fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:
I was thinking around 225ish/sqft. But that's just me... Guess that isn't gonna happen.

I don't think you can find a 6% loan on a rental these days.

I think these houses will bottom out right about here, ~275K, unless we get a nasty recession. Unemployment starts hitting 8%+ in san diego and we could start to see more reductions. I hope we see some more start to hit in this range, maybe a few not on major roads.

same here.. we should make a mira mesa dist. list!

Submitted by nostradamus on November 6, 2008 - 5:15pm.

By my calculations with 20% down at 6% you'd be paying in the area of $1600/month just for P&I + taxes. I guess if you're saying taxes + upkeep are canceled out by tax rebate, you can go with a lower monthly cost.

I still have to agree with FLU on this one. IMO the price has a way to drop.

Submitted by nostradamus on November 6, 2008 - 5:19pm.

BTW I'm still very skeptical of sales prices I see "officially" listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what's to say the sales price isn't wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.

Submitted by an on November 6, 2008 - 5:51pm.

By no mean do I think we're at the bottom in Mira Mesa. All I'm saying is, it's not "expensive". Not expensive is not equal to bottom. I think it's at fair price. It's not cheap, but not expensive either.

Submitted by DWCAP on November 6, 2008 - 6:48pm.

AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my "bottom" call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it'll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling "fortress" areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

Submitted by Coronita on November 6, 2008 - 10:35pm.

nostradamus wrote:
BTW I'm still very skeptical of sales prices I see "officially" listed. I see so many erroneous listings, what's to say the sales price isn't wrong?

Look at this one. $1000 for a Calle Cristobal condo.

Hmmm. I might have to do 100% financing on that one.

Submitted by Coronita on November 6, 2008 - 10:38pm.

asianautica wrote:
What do you consider expensive and cheap FLU? @ $279k, with 6% interest rate and 20% down, mortgage payment would be around $1300/month. If you + tax + insurance - tax deduction, your monthly payment would be around $1500/month. A 2 bed/2 bath apartment in Mira Mesa goes for around $1500/month. Rental of such house can easily be around $1700-1800/month.

Can rent in MM for 3/3 really be around $1800/month? Not doubting you, just asking.

It seemed kinda of high for me. It was thinking more around the $1600/month. But, I don't know MM well enough to comment.

Submitted by Coronita on November 6, 2008 - 10:39pm.

DWCAP wrote:
AN, I agree with you. You are getting into a range now where prices make sense with local incomes. 90k/year couple (thats only 45k each) can call this 3X income. That makes a whole lot more sense than the 450k+ that something like this woulda been sold for in 2005.

Now I may need to be alittle clearer about my "bottom" call. I think MM Houses will fall into this range, as a whole. That includes some of the nicer houses, the ones not on major roads or without kitchens etc etc etc. That means prices will continue to fall some more in the near future.
If we see a spike in unemployment above the ~6.5-7% we see now, then yah it'll go quite a bit lower. I am convinced the two things that could kill MM real estate are layoffs at Qcomm/pill hill LJ, or a drop in enrollment at UCSD. UCSD may never happen, it is such a good school. But layoffs seem to be a popular thing now. I read something ill post about how the fastest growing reason for defaults on homes is due to job loss, not resets/BS morgages anymore.
I also think there could be some spillover from demand destruction from a falling "fortress" areas like CV, RB, 4S etc etc. But that depends upon the amount the more expensive areas fall.

Regardless, I dont believe these are the lowest prices we will ever see, even if they are not unreasonable prices to current incomes.

psss.... Hiring freeze at the QC, not to mention earnings ==> stock getting wacked AH.

Submitted by Coronita on November 6, 2008 - 10:44pm.

DWCAP wrote:

I think these houses will bottom out right about here, ~275K, unless we get a nasty recession. Unemployment starts hitting 8%+ in san diego and we could start to see more reductions. I hope we see some more start to hit in this range, maybe a few not on major roads.

I think we're already in a nasty recession, a lot of people are just in denial. I've noticed the huge dropoff in good job opportunities. Over the number of open reqds just fell off a cliff. That's how steep the drop is.

Submitted by DWCAP on November 6, 2008 - 10:56pm.

huh, I did not know that. Hireing freeze at Qcomm?

Uhh, kinda cruel, but doesn anyone know anything about the layoffs at Motorola?

Nos, any inside info you can share?

Submitted by nostradamus on November 6, 2008 - 11:33pm.

DWCAP wrote:
huh, I did not know that. Hireing freeze at Qcomm?

Uhh, kinda cruel, but doesn anyone know anything about the layoffs at Motorola?

Nos, any inside info you can share?


Motorola is public info but this QC thing is news to me. I think FLU is a good source, with his wife and all. I stopped being "in the grapevine" a few months back and have been enjoying some leisurely time.

Submitted by DWCAP on November 6, 2008 - 11:54pm.

nostradamus wrote:
DWCAP wrote:
huh, I did not know that. Hireing freeze at Qcomm?

Uhh, kinda cruel, but doesn anyone know anything about the layoffs at Motorola?

Nos, any inside info you can share?


Motorola is public info but this QC thing is news to me. I think FLU is a good source, with his wife and all. I stopped being "in the grapevine" a few months back and have been enjoying some leisurely time.

Yah, but I am not up on the public info. Was it SD motorola that got hit?

Submitted by nostradamus on November 7, 2008 - 12:30am.

Motorola says cuts come primarily from their "handset divisions" which can be very broad.

I also heard that Sony SD got hit, but "not the entertainment people in Sorrento Valley". In fact I might have heard that here on piggs.

Submitted by an on November 7, 2008 - 12:37am.

fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:

Can rent in MM for 3/3 really be around $1800/month? Not doubting you, just asking.

It seemed kinda of high for me. It was thinking more around the $1600/month. But, I don't know MM well enough to comment.


I've been keeping an eye on SFR rent in MM on craigslist and I don't usually see rent under $1700. 3/3 are usually newer places, since older SFR are 3/2. Those 3/3 can easily go for around $2000-2200 depending on the size. Rental stocks tend to have very old stuff inside.

Submitted by Coronita on November 7, 2008 - 7:13am.

DWCAP wrote:
huh, I did not know that. Hireing freeze at Qcomm?

Uhh, kinda cruel, but doesn anyone know anything about the layoffs at Motorola?

Nos, any inside info you can share?

It could be on several divisions, maybe not overall, multiple people told me this at some of these cocktail mixers.

And mostly it's a common theme, not just any one specific company. As I said, it seems like employment for the common folks fell off a cliff over the past two months.

Submitted by fm on November 8, 2008 - 1:48pm.

One thing to note is inventory levels have dropped off like a rock almost. At the beginning of the year (according to waybackmachine) in January, there were 182 SFR. Now 100.

Submitted by DWCAP on November 9, 2008 - 1:34am.

fat_lazy_union_worker wrote:
DWCAP wrote:
huh, I did not know that. Hireing freeze at Qcomm?

Uhh, kinda cruel, but doesn anyone know anything about the layoffs at Motorola?

Nos, any inside info you can share?

It could be on several divisions, maybe not overall, multiple people told me this at some of these cocktail mixers.

And mostly it's a common theme, not just any one specific company. As I said, it seems like employment for the common folks fell off a cliff over the past two months.

Thanks FLU. A friend of a friend just started at Motorola, and I dont want to hear of bad news for them. I know it is wrong to just hope that someone you know didnt get hacked, but layoffs are a reality that I cant stop. I just am glad to hear that they are ok.

Submitted by ibjames on November 10, 2008 - 3:12pm.

The hiring freeze for QCom is company wide

Submitted by fun4vnay2 on November 10, 2008 - 7:38pm.

Yes, hiring freeze is company wide in qcom.
Infact, my division let go more than 100 people worldwide. Probably, 50 people locally in sandiego

Submitted by homesearcher on November 11, 2008 - 9:44pm.

Zillow lists this home sold in August for $464,150.

Is this the the price the bank estimated the home to be worth?

Submitted by cv2 on November 14, 2008 - 12:07pm.

Is this house considered SFH?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080066096-10...

It is only asking $269,000 for 1,750sf. It is only $154/sf in Mira Mesa. Good deal?

Submitted by fm on November 14, 2008 - 9:30pm.

cv2 wrote:
Is this house considered SFH?

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080066096-10...

It is only asking $269,000 for 1,750sf. It is only $154/sf in Mira Mesa. Good deal?

Those are attached condos separated by their carports. High HOA that is always going up.

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