Mira Mesa Monitor

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Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by an on June 10, 2022 - 8:23am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Those locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?

It'll be interesting to see how this play out. How sticky will the price be...

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 14, 2022 - 1:16pm.

So this was a week last year that I was away and missed so no year over year figures.

Market continues to shift into balance. Last week I mentioned this was when things start to slow down each year. This year was no exception but there is something more going on. In a typical year demand slows but supply does not yet. This year both did quite a bit.

New listings 5

New Pendings of 5

Closed sales at 7

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.083M.

This looks like it could be the beginning of a market shifting into stagnancy. The mainstream media is starting to write about this also. Demand is falling rapidly but new supply is also. We could settle in to a narrow range where volume is very low without much movement on pricing unless supply starts spiking.

https://money.yahoo.com/housing-market-h...

One thing to look for with low demand is the departure of many of my colleagues over the next couple years. Less volume, less paychecks for agents. This could and should happen regardless of what happens with pricing.

Today we saw two of the poster child brokerages for living off of public market money (Redfin and Compass) announce significant layoffs. Pricing of homes is not particuarly relevant to them. Sales volume is relevant to them and thats falling quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/real-est...

Will be interesting to watch this all and I'll be in my front row seat throw it all. Im built for this and not going anywhere

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 22, 2022 - 12:16pm.

I owe you all an update. Back to year over year comps too

New listings 7 (9)

New Pendings of 6 (11)

Closed sales at 5 (7)

Inventory at 29 (18) with median of 1.08M (825K).

Once again a solid market. The massive overbidding is past and overpricing without adjusting will leave you sitting. However at the end of the day about 1 house is going in escrow everyday and we've got 29 on the market which is about a month inventory. Its still tilted toward sellers despite some softness in pricing

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 28, 2022 - 2:21pm.

I think we can say we are now pretty much a balanced market despite inventory still being under 1 1/2 months.

New listings 9 (7)

New Pendings of 3 (6)

Closed sales at 9 (15)

Inventory at 34 (20) with median of 1.025M (850K)

A relatively slow week but it was last year also. Inventory continues to build and there are now a handful on the market in the 800's. Inventory will keep building the next few weeks. If you're a buyer keep watching this thread to follow direction of the market and think in terms of being ready come mid/late October pending conditions following the current trend.

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