Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 19, 2022 - 2:57pm.

As I hinted yesterday. Any sign of a market slowing vanished this week. I did mention that things are tougher around now to predict as tax season usually mutes things. The next two weeks should give us more info and then May our strongest month most years.

New listings 1 (4) - this week was way down. The week before and during tax deadline usually are but this was really low

New Pendings of 8 (11) - strong week and with tax season past should only get stronger

Closed sales at 7 (5) -

Inventory at 5 with median of 1M. Last year it was 6 with median of 799K.

The market here has been very consistent all year. It showed a slight softness a couple weeks ago but Im gonna call that tax season related. The party typically starts now with more inventory coming in the face of peak demand.

I follow inventory flow around the country. Month over month inventory is growing in almost every city except here. Our new listing count is down the most in the country. I understand the macro-economic headwinds in the country and what this tells me is there is something else going on here. SD is currently and has been the biggest exception nationally

Something like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHqrhfFYN3s

Submitted by limkotir on April 20, 2022 - 7:57am.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1097...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M24IU4XpJio

https://www.apartmentlist.com/ca/san-die...

Per the description of the MLS posting and pictures, and other links I found, looks like this SFH in Mira Mesa has been carved up into 3 units, 10977, 10977-A and -B "apartment" studio units. Is this legal and lawful?

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 20, 2022 - 8:15am.

limkotir wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10975-Bali-Ln-92126/home/4568514

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M24IU4XpJio

https://www.apartmentlist.com/ca/san-die...

Per the description of the MLS posting and pictures, and other links I found, looks like this SFH in Mira Mesa has been carved up into 3 units, 10977, 10977-A and -B "apartment" studio units. Is this legal and lawful?

If done correctly it is now. You can have an ADU and a JADU in addition to a main house.

Submitted by Coronita on April 20, 2022 - 8:16am.

These will rent like hotcakes to UCSD students.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 20, 2022 - 9:24am.

Coronita wrote:
These will rent like hotcakes to UCSD students.

What he said and what I was thinking

Submitted by limkotir on April 21, 2022 - 3:00pm.

limkotir wrote:
8576 Andromeda Rd

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/s...
(Contains the old pic of the house)
Sold for $750K on 2/10/2022

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8576...
(Contains the new flip job pics)
Will list for $1.374m this Sat (~40 days later) with a flip job. Probably will sell around that price.

This is what people are battling in older neighborhoods such as MM.

This house was removed from market a few days ago, then relisted at $1.2M (instead of the prior $1.374m) and immediately went into pending... guess $1.374m was bit aggressive, or was it? Guess we'll find out in a few weeks.

Submitted by limkotir on April 24, 2022 - 9:40pm.

limkotir wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending...in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?

3/30: listed for $745k
4/23: sold for $906k

I said $825k
an said $875k
sdrealtor said $860k

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 25, 2022 - 8:24am.

Haven’t checked yet but my guess is went to pro flippers who can turn that place around for $50k or less. I’d guess we see it back on market late May or early June for $1.075m and goes with multiple offers

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 25, 2022 - 12:18pm.

Just an FYI I came upon an interesting data point. Last year inventory here was in double digits from the beginning of May until Mid November and single digits the rest of the year. If inventory relief is gonna happen its gonna start real soon

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 25, 2022 - 12:29pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Haven’t checked yet but my guess is went to pro flippers who can turn that place around for $50k or less. I’d guess we see it back on market late May or early June for $1.075m and goes with multiple offers

OK just checked. Buyer was rep'd by agent who lives in MM and has contractor husband. Pretty sure they are the buyers. They did 2 nice flips last year. Id expect this to be their next one

Submitted by an on April 25, 2022 - 2:19pm.

limkotir wrote:
limkotir wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending...in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?

3/30: listed for $745k
4/23: sold for $906k

I said $825k
an said $875k
sdrealtor said $860k

Woohoo, I'm the closest lol

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 27, 2022 - 8:14am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Just an FYI I came upon an interesting data point. Last year inventory here was in double digits from the beginning of May until Mid November and single digits the rest of the year. If inventory relief is gonna happen its gonna start real soon

And just like that....

Day of golf yesterday but ran the data and things are progressing as predicted.

New listings 7 (5) - one of the higher counts the last couple months as expected post tax season and May around the corner

New Pendings of 7 (8) - steady as she goes

Closed sales at 8 (7) -

Inventory at 11 with median of 997K. Last year it was 3 with median of 765K.

The demand has definitely slowed but there is still plenty of demand for the slow, steady trickle of supply. Inventory should build slowly into the 20's and 30's unless we start getting 20+ new listings a week for a few months. Then we would rise a bit higher.

Lets see what happens next but for now its still the steady, consistent market its been for quite a while. Only time will tell

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 3, 2022 - 2:19pm.

I think we can say the market is coming into or already back into balance.

New listings 10 (11) - increasing as expected

New Pendings of 4 (4) - lots more choices and would expect an uptick next week

Closed sales at 2 (4) -

Inventory at 19 with median of 975K. Last year it was 11 with median of 800K.

Demand has been creeping down as there hasnt been much to buy but now there are a bunch of nice choices out there listed at fair prices not reaching. This should be where market comes into balance or shifts. If I was looking Id watch to see if demand increases as it seasonally should. If it doesnt I think once inventory gets much above 30 things will start shifting towards the buyers. I'd keep looking and watching for the good ones (good location/lot). Learn how to identify them immediately. Based upon past years data, pendings should be close to or above 10 the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Submitted by an on May 5, 2022 - 7:05pm.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833...

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 5, 2022 - 9:32pm.

an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.

Submitted by an on May 6, 2022 - 6:31am.

sdrealtor wrote:
an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7833-Backer-Rd-92126/home/4857038?utm_source=android_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&2010988919=variant&813945303=variant

Pending after 6 days. Same house probably would go for about 850-900k last year and about 575k 5 years ago.

We are by no means done and nowhere close to any downturn. With higher inventory MM should churn out 10+ pendings a week as it has picked up the pace to.

No surprise this went fast and for top dollar. Truly one of the really nice spots in MM as you well know. As a market watcher where you want to look for the first signs of slowing down are less desireable lots/locations. Thats where it will show up first. They will still sell but the market will differentiate on price more as a frenzy slows.


100% agree. I just wish deadzone is correct about RE crashing in the next year. Would love to pick something like this up for pre-pandemic price. I would guess something like this would go for ~$750k.

Submitted by limkotir on May 6, 2022 - 1:56pm.

Nice property and location. Would go for list price + some more.

Does a sunroom require permit?

Having looked at some MM houses, it seems like there have been quite a bit of non-permitted work done to the non-HOA in many 1970s SFH by prior owners.

What is the corrective action or treatment by the County on a property that added on 250 sq feet of unpermitted living space? Or because of the hot market of 2020-22, sellers are making buyers take off all non-contingencies.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 7, 2022 - 4:40pm.

Some have been permited and others not. Id say it would be rare for it to be an issue with city/county. They have bigger things to be concerned with. As a buyer your main concern is it built in a workmanlike manner professionally? Its pretty much always been this way hot market or not

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 10, 2022 - 2:38pm.

SEttling into balance continues.

New listings 7 (10) - would like to see closer to 10+

New Pendings of 11 (124) - lots more choices and as expected an uptick this week

Closed sales at 5 (6) -

Inventory at 19 with median of 999K. Last year it was 11 with median of 849K.

We saw the double digit pendings I set as benchmark we should see indicating market still strong. Inventory up over last year but same as last week/around where it sat most of last Summer. Whats on the market is either just listed or a tad too high and sitting.

The market looks like it should chug along here like this for another month or two. Once we get to late June I expect things to slow down more. For now the crazy bidding wars are over. Houses sell at or around asking in most cases as long as priced at recent comparable sales. It feels like a nice stable market here for now.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 17, 2022 - 2:41pm.

MM is holding up well. In general listings and supply are not increasing much but demand is slowing. Its more pronounced elsewhere than here at least for now

New listings 2 (6) - the lack of supply should keep this market stronger than some others

New Pendings of 8 (12) - demand is falling but just not much supply

Closed sales at 5 (14) -

Inventory at 14 with median of 1.057M. Last year it was 9 with median of 859K.

As I thought market is chugging along and will continue to do unless new listings spike up dramatically. We didnt get double digit pendings but inventory is down a good amount week over week because we only got 2 new listings. Market here feels like it is settling into more balance. This is what a soft landing could look like

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 24, 2022 - 4:47pm.

MM is settling into balance thus far. Under $1M generally stronger than over as it should be.

New listings 9 (10) - more inventory this week but not a ton

New Pendings of 7 (5) - pretty steady

Closed sales at 5 (9) -

Inventory at 20 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 17 with median of 860K.

Looking back at May we had slightly more pendings than new listings. Last year we had slightly more new lsitings than pendings. Inventory finally hit 20 and should stay between 20 and 30 through September before falling into year end if typical seasonal patterns hold.

With 20 homes on the market, buyers can go out and look at a bunch each weekend. We are starting to have more balance in the market.

As I mentioned a month ago it should and has started building into the 20's and should reach 30. Hard to say which way things go from here but for now its a better market for buyers than its been all year. I still think we'll know we are shifting towards a buyers market when/if inventory gets well above 30. Until then we are pretty well balanced

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 31, 2022 - 8:33pm.

MM still in balance thus far.

New listings 8 (10) -

New Pendings of 11 (15) - this was one of the biggest pending weeks of the last year and it is again this year

Closed sales at 10 (3) -

Inventory at 22 with median of 1.085M. Last year it was 16 with median of 885K.

Market seems well balanced. Some optimitic sellers still out there overpriced but also some doing a good job adjusting until they find market level. Overall this feels like a market that is not going much down or up. Nice and steady

Submitted by Escoguy on May 31, 2022 - 9:00pm.

Appreciate these updates, I gave a ride to a Google employee who works at the facility off MM. She mentioned they are expanding.

There are quite a few Apple employees in my building in UTC so hard to see MM area softening any time soon.

Nice and steady is good.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 7, 2022 - 1:43pm.

Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.

New listings 13 (7) - highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on

New Pendings of 12 (12) - this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory

Closed sales at 6 (8) -

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.

Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.

Submitted by JPJones on June 7, 2022 - 2:10pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Balance starting to shift a little to buyers finally. This is when market starts to slow down as focus shifts to Summer vacation. Its also when late sellers hit the market. Typically inventory rises through June and July peaking sometime in August before dropping the rest of the year.

New listings 13 (7) - highest count in last 18 months but not by much. Nice to see more come on

New Pendings of 12 (12) - this was the biggest pending week of the year as it should be with more inventory

Closed sales at 6 (8) -

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 14 with median of 825K.

Inventory has been building here with a little more coming on the market than usual but new pendings are hitting highs for the year as buyers finally have choices. A couple weeks back I said we should hit 30 and we are getting close. When/If we pass 40 it should benefit buyers. However its hard to say how long that will last unless we see a flood of new inventory. If it continues on this path its what a soft landing should look like.

Straight off a cliff, I say!

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 7, 2022 - 2:21pm.

LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far

Submitted by JPJones on June 9, 2022 - 6:52am.

sdrealtor wrote:
LOL not even close yet. If you ask some newer realtors they may feel that way. They have seen nothing but boom times for the last decade. Having done this for 20+ years I know what normal markets look/feel like. We are far from going off a cliff so far

Love the qualifiers! (Yet, so far)

I'm not cheering for a crash, just preparing for one knowing the fallout from the last one. I just hope we learned some lessons and it isn't as bad.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 9, 2022 - 11:11am.

I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here

Submitted by JPJones on June 10, 2022 - 1:25am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I don’t see how it could be as bad and yes definitely qualifiers as this is a very different situation. Even people buying at what feels like the top of the market put a lot of money down and financed with fully qualified record low interest rates in nearly every case. That is 180° different than last time. The only way we can really crash here is with non-discretionary sellers. The presence of what I just laid out greatly diminishes the amount of those potentially in that category. At this point even in the case of a prolong economic downturn it’s tough to predict how things would roll out here

How long until those with locked in record low rates run out? Mid June, roughly? That's what I'm waiting to see. End of July is the next marker I'm watching for after that.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2022 - 6:55am.

Those locked into low rates have been gone for a solid month. Don’t forget we still have the transition to 5/7/10-1 arms. Sales will go down the unknown is much inventory do we get and how motivated are sellers. We should see some price erosion through year end but nothing major. Then we hit Spring again. It’s at least a year until we could see bigger changes. Between them and now who knows what else can change?

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