Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 5, 2022 - 8:54am.

I used to say 2/3 of what you are buying is what you are standing on not standing in. Now I’d say 70-80% is the land value depending upon the property

As for the specific question you asked there is a lot of nuance involved and no simple answers. Having done this a couple decades I can look at two houses and comps and put a number on what I think any given house is worth above or below average market value at the time but that comes with experience. Generally I advocate buying the best lot/location you can get because that can’t be changed and it’s where most of the value is. Plus you’ll stay longer and enjoy more a property on a good lot in a good location

I think all four matter and if you are able get the best you can. Buying here is all about compromises and even people spending millions rarely get everything they want. Figure out what is most important and try to focus on that. With inventory as tight as it is that’s a tall order right now

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 5, 2022 - 5:45pm.

MM continues to be the steady performer.

New listings 4 (8) - seems to avg about about half of last year

New Pendings of 5 (7) - all homes pretty much sell with multiple offers

Closed sales at 8 (12) -

Inventory at 4 of which 1 came back on market/will go right back into escrow and the other 3 should be gone soon. It was 9 last year. The median is 1.186M vs 799K. This year a bit high because of such low inventory skewing it but prices definitely feel a good 30% up since last year

I see no signs of change or weakness in anyway here as I toggle through the individual listings in each category

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 5, 2022 - 6:01pm.

Side note. The sellers continue to list the "bread and butter" smaller 1 story homes not being flipped at attractive levels and letting buyers bid them up. I think that will bode well for the health of the market here. When sellers start pushing price too much buyers tend to start pushing back. I think I may be starting to see some of that along the NCC and will be watching to see what happens.

Submitted by an on April 6, 2022 - 10:17am.

I can't believe we're talking about $1m+ as a median in MM.

Submitted by limkotir on April 6, 2022 - 11:25am.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852...

The above beauty went into pending...in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?

Submitted by limkotir on April 6, 2022 - 11:30am.

an wrote:
I can't believe we're talking about $1m+ as a median in MM.

I think the listing data is left skewed distribution due to what's being listed, and the sample size is tiny, but if we looked at SFH for the last 50 sales, I think we may be still be under that $1m median midpoint magical mark, but it won't hold much longer if the current trend keeps up.

Submitted by an on April 6, 2022 - 12:22pm.

limkotir wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending...in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?


I say $875k

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 6, 2022 - 1:05pm.

limkotir wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852-Tampico-Ct-92126/home/4570382

The above beauty went into pending...in normal times, would have been a decent first time buyer and courageous DIYer purchase. If I had to bet, a cash offer with no contingences probably took it into pending status.

I am guess it will sell for $825K, any over and under calls?

House was sold as is cash only and definitely over 800k. I’ll say 860k

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 6, 2022 - 1:12pm.

limkotir wrote:
an wrote:
I can't believe we're talking about $1m+ as a median in MM.

I think the listing data is left skewed distribution due to what's being listed, and the sample size is tiny, but if we looked at SFH for the last 50 sales, I think we may be still be under that $1m median midpoint magical mark, but it won't hold much longer if the current trend keeps up.

Yes that is exactly the factors I was referencing on the skew. With only 4 houses of which two are high end for MM the high current median reflects that.

I know you are a datahound also so I ran closed sales over the last 60 days for 92126. There were 47closed sales with a median list price of $925. The median closed sale price is $1.02M so we are already legitmately over $1M.

If I add 92121 we gain 6 more sales and median sales price goes to $1.03M.

Welcome to Beverly Mesa

Submitted by oceanbreeze on April 7, 2022 - 9:45am.

an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.

20 days closing. It looks like a cash buyer also.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 7, 2022 - 11:28am.

oceanbreeze wrote:
an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.

20 days closing. It looks like a cash buyer also.

Not necessarily. I’ll have to check. Lenders have gotten very good at closing loans much faster

Submitted by an on April 7, 2022 - 11:16pm.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1085...

Closed at $1.55m, $250k above asking.

Submitted by Coronita on April 8, 2022 - 2:40am.

an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10858-Canyon-Hill-Ln-92126/home/4590406

Closed at $1.55m, $250k above asking.

I guess people really underestimated the number of people that emerged from pandemic significantly financially stronger than than they went into it.

Must not have been job growth and meaningingful financial gain in those industries....

I wonder how many folks cashed in their RSU and ESPP stock to buy a house. I would have as a hedge to tradeoff being too concentrated in stock market and having something to live in.

Submitted by limkotir on April 10, 2022 - 6:35pm.

On the positive side, there is a flood of new listings in several of the "starter" home communities this week -- saw couple listings in person myself in MM, still good amount of foot traffic, but I suspect a few of the listings on the lower end of price spectrum to go into pending status come this Tuesday / Wednesday.

Of course, with 30Y fixed mortgage above 5%, sales volume could start to taper off, maybe.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 10, 2022 - 6:57pm.

I wouldn’t expect volume to go down just the rate of appreciation. There are plenty of buyers and 5,7,10/1 arm rates are below 4% and will increasingly come into fashion

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 12, 2022 - 5:58pm.

First signs of a change in the market appearing. Not so much here as up along NCC but next 2 weeks will be very telling.

New listings 9 (10) - this week was bigger last year also. Need to watch what happens next week

New Pendings of 6 (9) - steady with previous weeks but usually starts ramping up in weeks after tax season. Another thing to follow

Closed sales at 6 (7) -

Inventory at 9 with median of 1M. Last year it was 10 with median of 782K.

This is the time when we start seeing a step up in supply each year. Also not usual for pendings to slip a couple weeks around tax deadline before they start stepping up. Im seeing more of a change elsewhere than here but first time Im feeling the market has shifted its balance of power. Next two weeks will tell that story particularly the the second one.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 13, 2022 - 10:32am.

No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon

Submitted by an on April 13, 2022 - 11:56am.

sdrealtor wrote:
No weakness here. 3 more houses went pending in last day with more to follow soon

Houses are still flying off the shelves. There are only 3 houses on the market for more than 10 days and 0 are on the market for more than 2 weeks.

Submitted by limkotir on April 18, 2022 - 3:37pm.

New high SFH price for 92126 is in - $1.61m

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785...

Submitted by an on April 18, 2022 - 3:43pm.

limkotir wrote:
New high SFH price for 92126 is in - $1.61m

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024


That was quick!

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 18, 2022 - 4:06pm.

Remember last week I said the market looked to be changing? Forget I said that. Update tomorrow

Submitted by Coronita on April 19, 2022 - 2:55am.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7260...

1114sqft condo in 92126....
$724k.

Welcome to the 92126,
.....the new Beverly Mesa....

It's only 5 minutes to new
.....La Jolla Atherton..

It's also pretty close to 92130, the new..
....Carmel Cupertino....

Lol. I really hope doomsayers are right and that we see a massive price correction. I mean, as it stands, I am priced out from buying more here unless I do something drastic like raise rents closer to market price or work for a startup that hits the IPO jackpot

Bay Area housing all over again...boy do I not miss those days....

If you think it's bad here.....
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/945-...

4/2 1700 sqft in roughly a place like Beverly Mesa.up there. $2.9m

Submitted by limkotir on April 19, 2022 - 6:11am.

Not familiar with bay area neighborhoods or market dynamics, but fully recognize Sunnyvale is a city that houses many tech companies.

Seems like the K-12 public schools this house is zoned to is ok, whereas MM has high achieving schools, but definitely not close to the nearby tech money influence.

Two questions: are public schools in the bay area in MM-like / -esque neighborhoods are typically like this per GreatSchools, mostly with 6s to 8s ratings, and 2) is it true many upper middle class families, by bay area standards, just end up going the private school route?

Submitted by an on April 19, 2022 - 6:33am.

What's interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.

Submitted by Coronita on April 19, 2022 - 6:48am.

limkotir wrote:
Not familiar with bay area neighborhoods or market dynamics, but fully recognize Sunnyvale is a city that houses many tech companies.

Seems like the K-12 public schools this house is zoned to is ok, whereas MM has high achieving schools, but definitely not close to the nearby tech money influence.

Two questions: are public schools in the bay area in MM-like / -esque neighborhoods are typically like this per GreatSchools, mostly with 6s to 8s ratings, and 2) is it true many upper middle class families, by bay area standards, just end up going the private school route?

Sunnyvale and south is what would be considered on par with Mira Mesa in terms of schools for a family. The location of the large apple campus only came recently with the past few years. Sunnyvale use to be a solid middle class neighborhood back in early 2000s obtainable for middle class, even as far as 2008.

Cupertino has always been the sought after school district.

I see many parallels when between Sunnyvale (ditto for mountain view) and Mira Mesa,.when things changed for the better. Close proximity to job center. No different than Mira Mesa being close to Sorrento Valley and now the life sciences growth area near 3 Roots.... 3 Roots will do well. Mira Mesa will do well as the more blue collar older owners move out by selling and retiring and refreshed with new owners. If SFH in MM are now over $1m, it's a entirely new demographics moving in now aint going back. In practice, when public schools in the area will continue to get better as the demographics changes.

Short of jumping on an IPO bandwagon or working for a company with decent RSUs or being in a double income earning family....that's what's going to be the new norm for new people, unfortunately.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 19, 2022 - 7:27am.

an wrote:
What's interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.

I don’t know about Redfin rent estimates but my neighborhood has rents around $6k now and prices are $2m+ ish

Submitted by Coronita on April 19, 2022 - 7:59am.

sdrealtor wrote:
an wrote:
What's interesting is, according to Redfin, the rent estimate for that Sunnyvale home is only ~$6k. Houses in Mira Mesa with similar rent estimate from Redfin (trying to keep variables as close to the same as possible) is going for ~$1.3-1.4m.

I don’t know about Redfin rent estimates but my neighborhood has rents around $6k now and prices are $2m+ ish

That estimate in redfin for 94086 is pretty close to reality. Speaking from experience. 4/2 1700sqft in Sunnyvale c rented for $5000/month
Roughly same time 5/3 2600 sqft in 92130 rented for $5000/month around the same time. 94086 tenant isn't planning to buy anytime soon because despite floating in Uber and Facebook stock grants, rent is still cheaper than buy by a lot and money saved, tenant sends kid to private school and very close to new tech campuses. But there it's pretty crazy, there use to be a large plot of dumpyard land next to the rail lines. Last time i was there, that scrapyard right along train tracks is now high density housing.

Both roughly $6k/month now.

That's why I said what I said. All else being equal, tenant gets more for their money here in SD, as long as they can work remotely most of the time. I don't need everyone to work remotely. I just need to find one that does, lol...92130 just renewed his lease for 2nd year and asked for an additional 2-3 years extension....I said we would talk about it when time is up.

I'm not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I'm not saying it isn't, I just don't know. Could be with the right house.

Submitted by an on April 19, 2022 - 8:00am.

Coronita wrote:
I'm not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I'm not saying it isn't, I just don't know. Could be with the right house.

$6k-6.5k is possible for the newer houses at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal as well as the 2500ish sq-ft houses in 3Roots and some of the view lots West of MM.

Submitted by Coronita on April 19, 2022 - 8:02am.

an wrote:
Coronita wrote:
I'm not sure if $6k/month in MM is doable yet. I'm not saying it isn't, I just don't know. Could be with the right house.

$6k-6.5k is possible for the newer houses at the corner of Camino Santa Fe and Calle Cristobal as well as the 2500ish sq-ft houses in 3Roots and some of the view lots West of MM.

I don't know this market well, so probably. Rent has dramatically increased here in SD the last year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 19, 2022 - 1:24pm.

Yeah Zillow has the rent estimate on my house at 7500 which just seems too high but what do I know? I haven’t seen a house go up for rent around here in a while

And even if it was that high I don’t think I could charge someone that in good conscience on my house

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