Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by XBoxBoy on March 29, 2022 - 5:25pm.

I sure would have thought we'd see a pretty big slow down with interest rates going up like they have. Particularly in an area like Mira Mesa. But so far, not seeing the increase in inventory or the drop in demand. Shows you how little I know... or maybe just how crazy the situation is. Either way, I find the situation pretty spectacular. Maybe it's still to come and deadzone will be right. But so far... not seeing it.

Submitted by oceanbreeze on March 30, 2022 - 2:48pm.

I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.

Submitted by limkotir on March 30, 2022 - 3:14pm.

oceanbreeze wrote:
I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.

Just looked, there is currently One (1) SFH on sale... start look at condos and townhouses as starter homes for now.

I think the MM neighborhood (or was it zip 92126) is the largest community in the City of San Diego (or County?), defined as west of the 15, east of Camino Santa Fe, and north of the industrial park of Miramar has about 80,000 people? Someone who has 2020 census data can correct me here... I'm too busy/lazy to look it up.

Submitted by an on March 30, 2022 - 3:21pm.

limkotir wrote:
oceanbreeze wrote:
I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.

Just looked, there is currently One (1) SFH on sale... start look at condos and townhouses as starter homes for now.

I think the MM neighborhood (or was it zip 92126) is the largest community in the City of San Diego (or County?), defined as west of the 15, east of Camino Santa Fe, and north of the industrial park of Miramar has about 80,000 people? Someone who has 2020 census data can correct me here... I'm too busy/lazy to look it up.


Make that Zero (0). Mira Mesa is officially sold out.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 30, 2022 - 3:22pm.

As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 30, 2022 - 3:24pm.

oceanbreeze wrote:
I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.

Congrats and best of luck in your home

Submitted by an on March 30, 2022 - 3:28pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims

I've been following Mira Mesa for almost 2 decades now and I have never seen MM sold out.

Submitted by limkotir on March 30, 2022 - 4:27pm.

an wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims

I've been following Mira Mesa for almost 2 decades now and I have never seen MM sold out.

From my perspective, and sdrealtor said it himself, MM is a bit "undervalued" zip area, given its location (no need to explain) and public school performance, relative to the social economic class (or housing hold income level).

Obviously, MM has its own share of baggages and downsides, which we'll save for another post...

On the public school performance, to buyers that care about such thing, instead of looking at the greatschools, USNews and all the school rating sites, I looked at the UC Admissions data for incoming undergrad freshmen for Fall 2021 (most recent data).

So I checked out how many kids applied vs admitted to Berkeley in the high schools in the within 10 mile radius of MM. (I did not include some high performing south bay and north county schools):

1. Canyon Crest - 53/359
2. Torrey Pines - 26/191
3. La Jolla High - 25/155
4. Del North - 22/187
5. Rancho Bernardo - 15/99
6. University High - 13/96
7. Westview High - 13/193
8. Scripps High - 10/124
9. Mira Mesa 11/69
10. Mt Carmel 9/82
11. Poway High 6/62

I am going to mine 5-years of data and look at UCSD and UCB admissions, obtain the zip household income, to see if which public high schools in SD County always punch above its weight class (social economically). Because we all know better schools is a function of who lives there and what social economic class they belong in -- let's normalize school ratings!

SOURCE (Tableau data table, takes a bit of time to load). https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/a...

California Public Schools only
Campus = Berkeley
Filter on county = San Diego

Submitted by oceanbreeze on March 30, 2022 - 4:41pm.

deleted without proper quoting.

Submitted by oceanbreeze on March 30, 2022 - 4:40pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
oceanbreeze wrote:
I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.

Congrats and best of luck in your home

Thanks. I rented it out with 5% annual return rate. This is not bad. I think in 2021 and beginning of 2022 (before rate hike), 92126 is the rare zip code along 56 corridor still investable.

Submitted by Coronita on March 30, 2022 - 4:45pm.

Too rich for my blood... lol

Now, if a 1/1 in 92126 can sell for $500k+

that would be sweet...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 30, 2022 - 5:49pm.

limkotir wrote:
an wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
As I said yesterday. I don’t make things up contrary to what deadzone claims

I've been following Mira Mesa for almost 2 decades now and I have never seen MM sold out.

From my perspective, and sdrealtor said it himself, MM is a bit "undervalued" zip area, given its location (no need to explain) and public school performance, relative to the social economic class (or housing hold income level).

Obviously, MM has its own share of baggages and downsides, which we'll save for another post...

On the public school performance, to buyers that care about such thing, instead of looking at the greatschools, USNews and all the school rating sites, I looked at the UC Admissions data for incoming undergrad freshmen for Fall 2021 (most recent data).

So I checked out how many kids applied vs admitted to Berkeley in the high schools in the within 10 mile radius of MM. (I did not include some high performing south bay and north county schools):

1. Canyon Crest - 53/359
2. Torrey Pines - 26/191
3. La Jolla High - 25/155
4. Del North - 22/187
5. Rancho Bernardo - 15/99
6. University High - 13/96
7. Westview High - 13/193
8. Scripps High - 10/124
9. Mira Mesa 11/69
10. Mt Carmel 9/82
11. Poway High 6/62

I am going to mine 5-years of data and look at UCSD and UCB admissions, obtain the zip household income, to see if which public high schools in SD County always punch above its weight class (social economically). Because we all know better schools is a function of who lives there and what social economic class they belong in -- let's normalize school ratings!

SOURCE (Tableau data table, takes a bit of time to load). https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/a...

California Public Schools only
Campus = Berkeley
Filter on county = San Diego

That will be cool and please share. I just found one thing that was really interesting to me.

UCSD 2021 applied/admitted/enrolled

Mira Mesa 153/71/47
Torrey Pines 207/95/37
Canyon Crest 397/177/71

They all have about 46% acceptance but 66% of the MM kids enroll vs about 40% of the CV kids. I guess that makes sense social economically as the MM kids are more prone to live at home and commute but still very impressive numbers

Submitted by limkotir on March 30, 2022 - 7:24pm.

8576 Andromeda Rd

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/s...
(Contains the old pic of the house)
Sold for $750K on 2/10/2022

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8576...
(Contains the new flip job pics)
Will list for $1.374m this Sat (~40 days later) with a flip job. Probably will sell around that price.

This is what people are battling in older neighborhoods such as MM.

Submitted by oceanbreeze on March 30, 2022 - 9:46pm.

limkotir wrote:
8576 Andromeda Rd

https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ca/s...
(Contains the old pic of the house)
Sold for $750K on 2/10/2022

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8576...
(Contains the new flip job pics)
Will list for $1.374m this Sat (~40 days later) with a flip job. Probably will sell around that price.

This is what people are battling in older neighborhoods such as MM.

The flip cost won't be more than 200K, so flipping old house in MM sounds a profitable business at least for this case.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 31, 2022 - 9:42am.

So this one Id potentially put into the category of primates at play aka monkey business. There are a bunch of large flipper companies that market to agents constantly. I hear from them everyday...every...single ...day.

It is a full time business to run an operation like that with staff constantly chasing opportunities and a full time crew to remodel them. The pitch is bring us your upcoming fixer listings off market and you can represent both sides of the transaction. If the deal is good enough they will also give you the listing post remodel which is the case in this one.

These houses are sold without ever being on the open market. The flipper company comes in with all cash, as-is and very quick closing and that is used to rationalize a less than open market price. Some sellers choose that route be it on their own or they are steered that way but suffice to say regular guy/gal on the street is not getting a house like that for a wholeslae price of $750K

On this one it looks like original owner moved to a nice part of SD almost 30 years ago and kept this a rental. These are likely older folks or their heirs. For whatever reason they opted for the fast and easy sale

Submitted by anxvariety on March 31, 2022 - 1:09pm.

All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 31, 2022 - 1:51pm.

anxvariety wrote:
All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.

Good luck with that. In a community of 70K plus located around one of the preeminent tech/life sciences cores in the country it doesnt take much to sell 4 houses a week

And this. Good article

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/...

Submitted by an on March 31, 2022 - 4:26pm.

anxvariety wrote:
All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.

You think speculators would put down 200-400k as a down payment?

Submitted by an on March 31, 2022 - 4:36pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
anxvariety wrote:
All speculative demand.. will vanish just as quickly as it appeared.

Good luck with that. In a community of 70K plus located around one of the preeminent tech/life sciences cores in the country it doesnt take much to sell 4 houses a week

And this. Good article

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/03/housing-dont-compare-current-housing.html


I bet one of those 4 houses already have 20+ offers as we speak.

Submitted by Coronita on April 1, 2022 - 1:03pm.
Submitted by sdrealtor on April 1, 2022 - 2:57pm.

Coronita wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7215-Rock-Canyon-Dr-92126/home/4544095

$1.7 million

Beverly Mesa!

Great joke! April fools!!!! Well maybe not but picture #9 is awesome

Submitted by an on April 1, 2022 - 5:46pm.

Coronita wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7215-Rock-Canyon-Dr-92126/home/4544095

$1.7 million

Beverly Mesa!


So close

Submitted by an on April 4, 2022 - 11:00am.

Latest phase for Lennar's Alta development @ 3Roots has the largest model priced at $1.79m. That's before upgrade and landscaping. I'm assuming that once you priced those 2 things in, you're looking at close to $2m home.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 4, 2022 - 12:02pm.

You might get in under but some will defintely go well over $2M when all is said and done. They are building a modern day country club community in the middle of the SD tech center. Brilliant!

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 4, 2022 - 12:48pm.

Complete fixer of a house listed in MM a few days ago. Offer deadline is today. Offers need to be all cash. They are over 20 offers already

Submitted by Coronita on April 4, 2022 - 1:04pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Complete fixer of a house listed in MM a few days ago. Offer deadline is today. Offers need to be all cash. They are over 20 offers already

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7852...

This one. 20 offers at least over $700k cash.

Seems like a lot of people have a lot of cash.

Submitted by an on April 4, 2022 - 5:15pm.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1048...

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.

Submitted by limkotir on April 5, 2022 - 7:19am.

an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.

Oh wow. Looking at the pictures, the home is remodeled tastefully, located in a cal-de-sac, and 1-min walk next to the new elementary school and park (both important to starting families).

I guess for first time buyers, start look at condos or townhouses to get exposed to the local market -- even homes in undesirable locations are being snapped up like hotcakes in this market, was hoping folks would leave those for first SFH buyers.

Which brings me to ask another question to those who are much experienced with the SD market. All things being equal, how much less should a Single Family House (SFH) be, each valued independently, versus a SFH which does not carry those unchangeable characteristics:

1) Next or close to a freeway (noise issue)
2) Located on a double yellow line neighborhood (traffic issue)
3) Zero lot line, red colored curb, in front of the house (no parking in front of the house)
4) No driveway (gotta use your garage for parking your car, lose storage use for garage)

I understand each person would value the above characteristic very differently based on their needs, just looking for some directional / general guidance.

Submitted by limkotir on April 5, 2022 - 7:19am.

sdrealtor wrote:
You might get in under but some will defintely go well over $2M when all is said and done. They are building a modern day country club community in the middle of the SD tech center. Brilliant!

https://www.lennar.com/new-homes/califor...

Alta's exterior modern style, may attract those younger and tech driven buyers.

Judging by the pictures on the developers sites, out of the 10 communities in 3Roots (4 townhouses, 1 bungalow, 1 condo, 1 villa, 3 single family homes), it appears only 3 communities have a driveaway, and probably nobody has curb front parking (just a guess).

I read many buyers and prospective buyers are already complaining about the parking situation in 3Roots, are looking for refuge across Camino Santa Fe where Quidel is located, which that company may take heartburns against during M-F wordays.

Submitted by Coronita on April 5, 2022 - 7:57am.

limkotir wrote:
an wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10484-Flanders-Pl-92126/home/6398700

Closed at $1.51m, $310k above asking.

Oh wow. Looking at the pictures, the home is remodeled tastefully, located in a cal-de-sac, and 1-min walk next to the new elementary school and park (both important to starting families).

I guess for first time buyers, start look at condos or townhouses to get exposed to the local market -- even homes in undesirable locations are being snapped up like hotcakes in this market, was hoping folks would leave those for first SFH buyers.

Which brings me to ask another question to those who are much experienced with the SD market. All things being equal, how much less should a Single Family House (SFH) be, each valued independently, versus a SFH which does not carry those unchangeable characteristics:

1) Next or close to a freeway (noise issue)
2) Located on a double yellow line neighborhood (traffic issue)
3) Zero lot line, red colored curb, in front of the house (no parking in front of the house)
4) No driveway (gotta use your garage for parking your car, lose storage use for garage)

I understand each person would value the above characteristic very differently based on their needs, just looking for some directional / general guidance.

2 and 3 are not a big deal.

1, if you live in 92130 or Mira Mesa, you're bigger issue is being next to Miramar. Hasn't stopped people from buying homes in 92130 or 92126.

4, not sure that would be a big deal. Price to pay for home ownership these days.

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