Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 17, 2022 - 3:32pm.

Dupe

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 17, 2022 - 3:32pm.

Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not

Submitted by bewildering on January 18, 2022 - 9:02am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not

Does the reassessment just look at vlue of addition? Or would it include land price?

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 18, 2022 - 10:39am.

bewildering wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Doing an addition, adding a pool etc would trigger reassessment. Painting , new flooring, new cabinets, counters, appliances, lighting, plumbing fixtures and the like not

Does the reassessment just look at vlue of addition? Or would it include land price?

Land would not get reassessed only the improvements built and the increase is typically well under what they cost.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 18, 2022 - 9:44pm.

And so it begins in earnest

New listings 3 (6) - not many, half last year

New Pendings of 2 (11) - nothing to buy

Closed sales at 6 -

Current inventory at 2 with median of 792K. Both small and likely sell over 800K

Keep it coming!

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 25, 2022 - 3:24pm.

So no one seems interested in moving away

New listings 3 (7) - less than half last year

New Pendings of 4 (5) - still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 5 -

Current inventory at 2

One of the listings is 2br/1ba 740 sf that Zillow overpaid for and is smaller than many 2br apartments. The other is nice one but seller looking to close quickly but not move out until end of May. Im gonna call that essentially nothing for sale

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 1, 2022 - 4:06pm.

More of the same

New listings 3 (6) - less than half last year

New Pendings of 2 (11) - still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 4 -

Current inventory at 3 (8) with median of 982K

New listings and inventory half what it was last year when we were already complaining

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 8, 2022 - 3:58pm.

New listings 6 (6) - back to last year

New Pendings of 5 (4) - still nothing to buy

Closed sales at 5 -

Current inventory at 7 (13) with median of 900K

With the exception of the <800sf 2/1 everything is on the market less than a week and will sell quickly

Market seems to be appreciating steadily but not in huge jumps

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 15, 2022 - 3:57pm.

New listings 6 (8) -

New Pendings of 9 (12) -

Closed sales at 4 -

Current inventory at 7 (10) with median of 940K (770K)

<800 sqft home in escrow. Anything on the market is on less than a week or as long as it takes to sort through offers. One to three motnh rent backs are typically post closing.

With such low inventory the median asking jumps around a lot but just the same is about 20% higher than last year

One thing Ive noticed is the quality is improving. In the past most of the listings seemed to be old homes in drastic need of a remodel but thats shifting. Now its more flips, long time owners that upgraded but are relocating/downsizing or buyers in the 3 to 10 years who are moving up. I havent seen much of a move up seller/buyer market here in the past but that seems to be changing as lots can sell and walk away with 300-500K or more. Perhaps some are going to3 Roots

Submitted by scruffydog on February 15, 2022 - 6:20pm.

At least there are listings in MM.
In the entire community of 92124 there are now ZERO listings.
Anybody care to guess how this madness ends?

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 15, 2022 - 7:34pm.

scruffydog wrote:
At least there are listings in MM.
In the entire community of 92124 there are now ZERO listings.
Anybody care to guess how this madness ends?

In fairness Tierrasanta is a very small market. Last year there were 252 sales as compared with MM which had 652 sales or the NCC (92009/92011/92024) which had 1914 sales. Its most similar in size to 92107 which had about 265 sales.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 22, 2022 - 3:47pm.

New listings 4 (5) -

New Pendings of 10 (12) -

Closed sales at 3 -

Current inventory at 4 (5) with median of 945K (750K)

More of the same. It seems like 1/3rd of sales are off market fixers sold direct to flippers and 1/3 of listings are remodeled flips of the same. I remember shoping with clients Fall 2020 and we would run into the same 10 buyers on every new lsiting. Its gotta be 20 to 30 now. No relief in sight and median price should continue ascent

Submitted by an on March 1, 2022 - 11:52am.

I keep on getting blown away about this prices this spring. I would have never imagined we're talking about low to mid $1m in Mira Mesa: https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1112...

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 1, 2022 - 4:13pm.

The party continues

New listings 4 (6) -

New Pendings of 5 (6) -

Closed sales at 5 -

Current inventory at 7 (7) with median of 1.075M (770K)

MM continues its steady climb. INventory is a little worse than last as things really tightened up earlier here than other markets. Its a more slow and orderly process as housing is so homogenous and there are few high end properties compared to the traditional homes but there is no mistaking what is happening. OF note we have our first M instead of a K on the median home price on the market

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 8, 2022 - 7:51pm.

New listings 6 (5) -

New Pendings of 7 (8) -

Closed sales at 7 (6) - median of 978K (762K)

Continues to be a very orderly market with volume at consistent levels y-o-y but prices steadily climbing. A year ago almost unheard for a house to close above $1M. In the first 10 weeks of the year there were ZERO above $1M. There have been 17 so far this year of which 7 were $1.25M+. Not your momma's MM anymore!

Submitted by an on March 10, 2022 - 3:07pm.

New high watermark for Mira Mesa: https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885...

Wonder when MM will have its first multi-million $ home.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 15, 2022 - 1:14pm.

New listings 8 (5) -

New Pendings of 6 (9) -

Closed sales at 10 (7) -

Inventory was 4 last week and 8 now so some improvement. But its all on market a week or less and likely in negotiations. It was 6 this time last year. The median list price is now $972K and was $727K this week last year.

YTD there have been 47 closed SFR sales with median of $1,011,000. Same period last year there were 65 closed sales and median was $760,000.

YTD there have been 7 sales below $850K of which 5 were off market. Any home placed on the open market is gonna be over $850K now.

MM continues its steady march up. No relief in sight

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 22, 2022 - 2:20pm.

New listings 4 (5) -

New Pendings of 9 (5) -

Closed sales at 5 (10) -

Inventory was 8 last week and 3 now all should go soon. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $1.15M and was $825K this week last year. Probably skewed a bit higher because of few homes on market but thats 40% higher so take from it what you will.

MM inventory flow has been very consistent for about 1 1/2 to 2 years. This is how markets change over to time to lasting impact.

Submitted by limkotir on March 23, 2022 - 4:39pm.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785...
Initially listed at $1.3m, then two days ago, changed to $1.65m. Is this the winning bid amount?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885...
Slightly smaller home but with backyard canyon view at the end of the cul-de-sac sold for $1.585m on 3/8

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1168...
Another similar home on a different street but within walking distance sold for $1.38m on 2/10... lost out on ~$200K in gains in 1 month?

Is this insanity we're observing here...? SDRealtor... your thoughts?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 23, 2022 - 5:38pm.

limkotir wrote:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024
Initially listed at $1.3m, then two days ago, changed to $1.65m. Is this the winning bid amount?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885...
Slightly smaller home but with backyard canyon view at the end of the cul-de-sac sold for $1.585m on 3/8

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1168...
Another similar home on a different street but within walking distance sold for $1.38m on 2/10... lost out on ~$200K in gains in 1 month?

Is this insanity we're observing here...? SDRealtor... your thoughts?

When you see a price raised like that it is generally a signal that is the winning bid or close to it.

One thing to note is that these 3 houses are probably best of the best location/lots for existing tract homes in MM. The are also bigger and newer homes than most. Of course 3 Roots will change that. These new high comps pull everything up a bit with them but they are exceptions.

Id say 90% of the sfr market here in MM is the standard 1000 to 1700 sq ft mostly 1 story homes that are still mostly between 800k and 1M. Ive done a fair amount of sales here and still think there are lots of good solid opportunities for buyers here. The key is knowing the lay of the land to get a good lot/location and floorplan to work with. The MM inventory flow has been steady but limited and the good ones are out there.

Submitted by limkotir on March 23, 2022 - 7:44pm.

3R will a nice master planned community when it up and running. I browse another forum where homeowners and would-be buyers actively discuss various topics.

Of course, what interests me the most is the current price action. And I do wonder if it is a better buy to purchase a newer / resale home in Sorrento Valley, or a home off of Calle Cristobal. Or go to PQ and Carmel Valley.

The entry price to live in 3R is quite steep:
-the purchase price, assume $1.8m for Alta Plan 3B
-1.46% property tax, which includes the SCIP. City of SD standard property tax rate is 1.23%; so another extra 0.23%, or $22,140 Std Prop Tax + $4,140 SCIP
-the $250 to $400 monthly HOA ($3,000 to $4,800)
-the required solar panels (one time $10,000)
-plus upgrades buyers may opt into (XXXX)

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/alta
Alta is the biggest SFH within the 3R community, and below are what's shared. I am not 100% certain, but I believe all 3R home builders have gone to "bidding style" purchase format.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/hudson
Hudson, which is attached townhouses, folks are saying they bid 20-30% above the starting price, and still did not hear back or get selected. INSANE!

Homesite 16 Residence 3B – approx. 3,463 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 5 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – FGS1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,720,900 ** Backyard depth average ~25 feet.

Homesite 68 Residence 3C – approx. 3,463 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 5 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – WS2.1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,702,900 ** Backyard depth average ~14 feet.

Homesite 13 Residence 2C – approx. 3,341 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 4 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – WS2.1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,705,900 ** Backyard depth average ~28 feet.

Homesite 71 Residence 1C – approx. 3,157 Sq.Ft. | 2 story | 4 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms |Bonus Room | CA Room| Deck | 3-Bay Tandem Garage EI Color Package – FGS1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,656,900** Backyard depth average ~17 feet.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 23, 2022 - 10:44pm.

They are basically building the equivalent of a country club community in the middle of the SD tech center. It’s hard to apply the old rules there as it’s a completely new category of living.

Which is better? That depends upon the specifics of your individual situation. If your trying to decide find someone capable of helping you figure out the answer. Not someone to tell you the answer but rather someone that fills the gaps in your knowledge base to help you make the best possible decision

Submitted by an on March 24, 2022 - 6:49am.

There's currently only 2 houses for sale in Mira Mesa right now. I don't think I've ever seen inventory this low in the spring.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2022 - 9:20am.

Negotiating offers I’m certain

Submitted by limkotir on March 24, 2022 - 12:31pm.

SFHs in MM is quickly running away from first time home buyers, at $1M house with 20% down, or $800k loan at 4%, the monthly mortgage is $3,800 per month, plus property taxes + prop insurance, we are looking at a fixed overhead cost of $5,000 per month, before even turning on lights, internet, gas and water.

In short, $5,000 housing cost commitment is probably in the dual income territory, one person pulling in $150k job, another making a more modest $75k or so.

SDrealtor, what is the social economic profile of your buyers in MM (and Kearny Mesa, Clairemont), if you can share such high level details.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2022 - 12:39pm.

Im just one guy and dont have enough to make a statement right now. Last two both grew up there and are techies. One bought his 1st home a year ago and is looking great. The other bought his 4th property there a few months ago and already looking great on it it He will soon own the whole town LOL

FWIW Ive had 1st time homebuyers put $500K+ down on their first home before. Its not uncommon for immigrant techies to live frugally in apartments while single or recently married and save tons between income and RSUs. Once the kids come and get near school age they buy houses. Thats not something you see in Kansas Toto

Submitted by limkotir on March 24, 2022 - 1:03pm.

Thanks for the additional colors there.

I also have been pulling down the names of those sold properties per the county property record database, then look up those folks on Google / LinkedIn.

One property sold late last year in Mira Mesa I had my eye on was bought by a VP at LPL (not sure if LPL hands out VP titles like candies), but if that is the type of folks first time home buyers are facing, along with the techies you mentioned from your POV, then most of my peers that are starting families in their 30s won't stand much of a chance.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 24, 2022 - 1:33pm.

One more thing to consider is that the path to homeownership here for most does not begin with a house.

It never has.

I bought my first place in Encinitas in 1997 for $190K scraping together a $10K down payment. It was a townhouse and I felt like the stupidest guy on the planet spending that much and not getting a house.

Two years later I sold it for 250K and was looking to take the next step up which was a starter house around 325K at the time.

I saw some new construction around here. It was the first in many years but it was a much bigger stretch. I would have to take 2 maybe 3 steps up to $400K for a new house. It would also require lots of post move in expenses not the least of which was $50K+ of landscaping. It was scary and a big stretch. But I recognized it was the opportunity of a lifetime to get an amazing place. One I could stay in for decades. Had I not done that I would never be where I am and here I sit.

I share this as an example that the path here unlike many places is a ladder to climb for most. It requires steps, patience, some luck, some good choices and yes some guts.

And in case you are wondering rates were around 9% back then which I couldnt have swung. I started with a 5/1 ARM at 7.5%

And VP's in financial services are a dime or dozen. Basically marketing title for financial advisors with several years of experience but no real management role over employees

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 29, 2022 - 11:10am.

Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. If anything there may be another pending or 2 by my normal data collection time each Tuesday as at least 4 of 5 have multiple offers on them they are negotiaitng on

New listings 2 (7) - market watchers this is # to follow.

New Pendings of 2 (8) -

Closed sales at 4 (4) -

Inventory at 5 but at least 4 if not all 5 working through offers. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $999K and was $829K this week last year.

Only 2 sfr listings this week is anemic. Thats a dead of Winter not a Spring peak selling season number. Anyone watching the market here needs to follow new listing numbers. Interest rates mean little in such a supply constrained market as there are plenty of high down buyers not overly impacted by rates.

Most houses seem to be closing between $50 and 100K over with the exception of the best of the best locations which can go much more.

Submitted by an on March 29, 2022 - 4:22pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Heading up to LA for a concert so early update. If anything there may be another pending or 2 by my normal data collection time each Tuesday as at least 4 of 5 have multiple offers on them they are negotiaitng on

New listings 2 (7) - market watchers this is # to follow.

New Pendings of 2 (8) -

Closed sales at 4 (4) -

Inventory at 5 but at least 4 if not all 5 working through offers. It was 7 this time last year. The median list price is now $999K and was $829K this week last year.

Only 2 sfr listings this week is anemic. Thats a dead of Winter not a Spring peak selling season number. Anyone watching the market here needs to follow new listing numbers. Interest rates mean little in such a supply constrained market as there are plenty of high down buyers not overly impacted by rates.

Most houses seem to be closing between $50 and 100K over with the exception of the best of the best locations which can go much more.


We definitely were not seeing $50-100k over asking price last year.

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