Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by jmw on October 6, 2021 - 5:15pm.

Can you easily search ibuyer activity? Sales with no listing

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 6, 2021 - 7:28pm.

jmw wrote:
Can you easily search ibuyer activity? Sales with no listing

What I can do is search a specific company in the tax records and tell you how many homes they own. Any you are interested in?

Submitted by jmw on October 9, 2021 - 8:55pm.

Redfin. Cuz they’re in the middle of a flip down the street

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 13, 2021 - 11:19am.

Sorry for delay, I missed deadline for sending my 1/4ly dues and mls got cut off. Paid it and should have it back shortly. I'll take care of it then

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 13, 2021 - 2:39pm.

jmw wrote:
Redfin. Cuz they’re in the middle of a flip down the street

So I ran numbers for Redfin and they only have about 26 in SD County. The big players are Opendoor which has about 130 and Zillow which has 242. Generally speaking these are mostly in lower and middle class areas or attached/condos. its hard to know exactly what zillow pays but they seem to be losing money on most of what they buy and sell and are tring to figuree out the business model rather than turn a profit

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 13, 2021 - 2:41pm.

New listings 10 -

New Pendings of 14 -

Closed sales at 6.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 16 with median price of $887K

Of the 16 houses on the market over half have offers and arte negotiating. If they moved faster pendings would be over 20. This is a very solid market

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 19, 2021 - 3:36pm.

New listings 4 -

New Pendings of 10 -

Closed sales at 7.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 12 with median price of $912K.

Most of what is active is in multple offers or tenant occupied which is slowing down the sale - Leased through June 2022, uncooperative tenant wont allow access, shown with accepted offer only...good luck with those. There is virtually nothing for sale here and the 912K median is skewed by a couple overpriced properties languishing on the market but come Spring that could be the new normal.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 28, 2021 - 3:27pm.

sorry got sidetracked posting but ran numbers on tuesday. I wonder if we will revert back to our typical seasonal pattern as I expect or if things will rage through year end like last year.

New listings 9 -

New Pendings of 9 -

Closed sales at 13.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 12 with median price of $929K.

For now new inventory has kept coming but should slow the next couple months if seasonality reigns. Generally speaking Im seeing nicer homes hit the market over time and flippers are active here which bodes well for continued appreciation

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 3, 2021 - 3:26pm.

Update time and MM just keep schugging along. Homes below 800K are rare and sales below seem to involve some shenanigans.

New listings 8 -

New Pendings of 8 -

Closed sales at 8.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $900K.

Inventory built a little but nothing that looks significant. Looks like buyer traffic dropping seasonally a bit while listing volume has stayed steady

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 10, 2021 - 1:12pm.

Update time and MM continues to be the model of consistently.

New listings 9 -

New Pendings of 9 -

Closed sales at 10.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 18 with median price of $857K.

Drop in median is just change in the mix and small sample size. No big deal. QCOM just had a big month and cant imagine soem of that wont get spread around here. This Spring I expect nicely remodelled homes will go 900K+ and some have already

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2021 - 8:17pm.

More of the same

New listings 8 -

New Pendings of 11 -

Closed sales at 13.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 14 with median price of $950K.

Median not only came back it soared to all time high for 3 reasons. The under $800K market is pretty much gone. The new listings skewed toward the high end bigger/newer homes. There are a handful of way overpriced homes sitting on the market

Submitted by an on November 19, 2021 - 10:42am.

It'll be interesting to see if we'll break the $1m mark for the median price by the spring.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 19, 2021 - 2:40pm.

wouldnt surprise me to see median list price hit $1M but I think median sales price of $1M is a bit away

Submitted by jmw on November 22, 2021 - 11:43pm.

Does Mira Mesa cease to be a first time homebuyer community at $1m?

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 23, 2021 - 10:40am.

I dont think so. I think it becomes and is becoming first time home for a new class of homebuyer. I've had first time homebuyers put down $500k with HH incomes well over $300k. Things a changin

Also many first timers start in condos and town homes here. Always have

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 23, 2021 - 3:31pm.

Wanted to get this one in early before holiday shutdown. We expect the market to be mostly shut down by now. Homes listed now are more than likely vacant. Who would want to list their home over the holidays if they didnt have to? Why not wait for the early Spring rush to begin at this point. Lets see what we got

New listings 4 - pretty much shutdown

New Pendings of 14 - buyers still chasing though!

Closed sales at 6.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 7 with median price of $969K.

Verdict: Of the 7 on the market 4 are negotiating offers and 1 cant be shown due to tenants. There are 2 overpriced homes sitting and one of which should sell in the next or at most two. Should be sluggish for rest of the year. This market is wrapped up for all intents and purposes

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 30, 2021 - 6:22pm.

New listings 1 - a vacant home owned by Redfin

New Pendings of 6 - buyers still out there

Closed sales at 13 - median sales price was $920K.

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 4 with median price of $981K.

Of the 4 on the market 2 are in multiple counters so basically gone. One has tenants and cant be shown. There's pretty much 1 house on the market. Its a nice home remodeled by one of the big flippers in town but the backyard is all pool and its about $1M. Shouldnt last much longer either way.

MM is closed for the year. There could be some drips and drabs of activity here and there but the shelves are/will be empty. Expect prices for a 3BR home to start at $800K+ when it re-opens in Mid January unless a house is a disaster.

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 7, 2021 - 6:54pm.

Welcome to sleepy time

New listings 1 - its already in escrow

New Pendings of 4 - cleaned up what was left last week

Closed sales at 10 -

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 2.

A probate sale you can wait in line to see next week on the one day tenats are allowing and submit one of many offers on it

A tenant occupied home home you cant see which has been sitting on the market that way 6 months. Submit a full priced offer sight unseen offer on an overpriced home and they may let you see it

The store is closed

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 14, 2021 - 5:22pm.

New listings 4 - 3 flips and perhaps someone trying to get ahead of the market

New Pendings of 3 - cleaned up what was left last week

Closed sales at 10 -

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 5 at median of 959K

Currently on the market. The long time tenant occupied you cant see, 3 vacant flipped homes (one is long time owner flipping their own home) and one sale looking for a rent back. The last one looks interesting. If its what I think thats a smart move. They are selling now and looking for a rent back which they should be able to get. This way when listing activity picks up in Jan/Feb they will have nothing to sell and cash in the bank so they will be strong buyers and have best chance of success. Kudos to them if that is what they are up to

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 22, 2021 - 10:26am.

New listings 4

New Pendings of 5

Closed sales at 12 -

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 3 at median of 935K

The market stragglers with challenging situations have now been cleansed from the market. Homes like that tend to come back ont he market at a higher rate but for now they are in escrow. The 3 on the market are very saleable and will go soon. They are likely negotiating offers now.

This is not a tiny niche market like OB, it is home to almost 90K residents and there are virtually no homes for sale. Astounding

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 30, 2021 - 9:45am.

Last of the year

New listings 1

New Pendings of 2

Closed sales at 3 -

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 2

The 2 for sale are owned by Zillow and Open Door who usually collect offers for a couple weeks before selling. I saw the one owned by OD when it was on the market before they took best offer to OD and got better net proceeds. OD painted interior and replaced carpet then put back on market for 70K more than they paid. I can see they did not replace any of the rotting fascia boards or rafter tails in their photos. House is still a mess but will sell quickly too

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 4, 2022 - 5:06pm.

Preseason begins

New listings 1

New Pendings of 1

Closed sales at 2 -

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 2

Zillow owned home still shows active but they dont update status. The Open Door home sold. Probate sale just came on at attractive price. needs work but nice house, location, lot and view so will get plenty of attention quickly

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 11, 2022 - 4:59pm.

First week of the season. Im gonna make one slight change going forward. Next to the listings and pendings each week I will include the figure from last year. That will start next week for this thread as I started tracking MM that week last year.

New listings 7

New Pendings of 4

Closed sales at 2 -

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 4 with median of 913K. The end of homes under 800K should come at some point if trend continues

All things considered this is a healthy start and in line with what we saw most weeks last year

Submitted by jmw on January 12, 2022 - 10:12pm.

MMMM
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…

Submitted by Escoguy on January 12, 2022 - 11:15pm.

jmw wrote:
MMMM
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…

When I see this, I realize my projection of 1400 sf in 4S at 1.2M isn't far off.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2022 - 6:24pm.

Escoguy wrote:
jmw wrote:
MMMM
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…

When I see this, I realize my projection of 1400 sf in 4S at 1.2M isn't far off.

As you know a 1400 sf 4S house is a detached condo and really more townhouse than sfr. Pricing is knocking on the door of that level and there is nothing for sale

I never saw this coming but feel like we are heading toward Silicon Valley pricing down here unless something changes quickly. I hope Im wrong

Submitted by an on January 13, 2022 - 8:46pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Escoguy wrote:
jmw wrote:
MMMM
If you had told me 10 years ago one of the standard models in Mira Mesa would sell for $1m…

When I see this, I realize my projection of 1400 sf in 4S at 1.2M isn't far off.

As you know a 1400 sf 4S house is a detached condo and really more townhouse than sfr. Pricing is knocking on the door of that level and there is nothing for sale

I never saw this coming but feel like we are heading toward Silicon Valley pricing down here unless something changes quickly. I hope Im wrong


I have my fingers and toes crossed that you're right :-D

Submitted by jmw on January 13, 2022 - 10:11pm.

Same. Crazy to think some of the original owners in MM may not even be paying $1,000/yr in property tax. While those moving in are paying $1,000/mo. Talk about golden handcuffs!

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2022 - 10:21pm.

So those houses were still around 100k new and many years of 2% tax increases so about $2k is the least anyone is paying. Not quite 10X but 5X certainly in the realm. I’ve been in my home 22 years now. House next door just resold and they’ll be paying 3X. I am old enough to move my tax basis now but like it where I am so that’s my bigger golden handcuffs

Submitted by bewildering on January 17, 2022 - 3:26pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I am old enough to move my tax basis now but like it where I am so that’s my bigger golden handcuffs

What does remodeling a house do to the tax basis? When I move back to San Diego I would probably remodel my SFH. I am guessing that would change the tax basis to current property values?

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