Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 5, 2021 - 8:43pm.

Just back from weekend in Newport Beach. It's a beach community like Encinitas and Carlsbad just wealthier. I itnever said would be as wealthy just that it would be our version of it which it is becoming. The NCC has more amenities including golf courses, restaurants, shopping and entertainment than any other part of SD. It has two of the Premier resorts in SD and many more very nice ones. Do you spend much time here? Do you spend much time in Newport Beach? I spend a lot of time there.

La Jolla is more comparable to Laguna than Newport Beach. Old money vs new money. Artsy vs Flashy. Tucked away with challenging access to transportation corridors.

Irvine is at least 15 minutes from the beach. Most of the housing is older. It's in the middle of an employment center. It's nothing like Carmel Valley.

Submitted by an on July 5, 2021 - 11:31pm.

I'd take either Irvine or Cupertino or even Sunnyvale as where MM is heading to.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 7, 2021 - 3:44pm.

Update time. Ran numbers a day late due to holiday brain fog

New listings 9 -

New Pendings of 9 -

Thats 0 change

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 23 with median price of $850K.

Inventory continuing to build. Prices stabilizing and dont seem to be rising. Could soften a little IMO but not a lot. Market seems to be returning to normal albeit with higher prices

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 13, 2021 - 2:18pm.

Update time. Back on schedule

New listings 10 -

New Pendings of 8 -

Thats +2 change

Closed sales at 11

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 25 with median price of $855K.

Slow inventory build continues. Market still very strong but more orderly. Very stable here

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2021 - 3:26pm.

Update time. Strong week for MM, maybe strongest all year.

New listings 7 - slight decrease over last few weeks

New Pendings of 18 - easily biggest week of the year. Part is there was more inventory but there was more inventory the last 3 weeks. Bit of a reversal here

Thats -11 change

Closed sales at 6. Sign of previous low inventoyr as things take 30-60 days to close

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 16 with median price of $850K.

Inventory had been building over last 5 weeks then boom. Things are cooking in MM again.

Submitted by ybitz on July 26, 2021 - 10:46pm.

you know anything about the new construction in Mira Mesa, the 3 Roots development? Wonder how that'll affect the existing Mira Mesa market.

Submitted by flyer on July 26, 2021 - 11:55pm.

Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don't know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

Submitted by an on July 27, 2021 - 9:04am.

flyer wrote:
Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don't know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

Don't tell that to the 14,000 families who want to be on the list for 1800 homes. I know many who can't even get on the list.

Lennar is going with "bidding war" sale, so have fun trying to be the winning bid. CalWest and Shea chose to do first come first serve for their first phase but it won't surprise me if they'll follow Lennar's lead and do bidding war for the following phases.

Submitted by an on July 27, 2021 - 9:20am.

ybitz wrote:
you know anything about the new construction in Mira Mesa, the 3 Roots development? Wonder how that'll affect the existing Mira Mesa market.

Mira Mesa is changing. 3Roots is the first of the many changes happening over the next 10-20 years. 3Roots will be fully built out over the next 5 years. Then Stone Creek, https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/ston..., immediately east of 3Roots will start. These 2 developments will change feel of MM. Then if you think even longer term, the city want to rezone MM to be a lot more dense, https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/city..., so 30 years from now, I'm betting that MM will be a much different place.

As you bring in more people who are buying $1-1.5m houses, school's test scores will change as well.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2021 - 9:50am.

To see what will happen in MM one only need look north at San Marcos. Twenty Five years ago its was widely disparaged around North County locals. Then San Elijo Hills and some other smaller communities were built and the sea tide changed. Today San Marcos home prices for comparable homes arent all that different than Carlsbads.

It will take time as an mentioned but with a central location, relatively affordable homes, nice all usable lots common and proximity to UCSD, Medical centers and tech/life science job centers I only see one way for this to end.

Right now most homes are selling over $800k. At those prices the people moving in are not the same as the people moving out or most of the current residents.

There are about 25k housing units in MM. 60% of those are owner occupied so lets call that 15K.

This year about 800 homes will change ownership with close to 500 of those single family homes. Thats 3% turnover. Most of those were built in 70's and 80's so original owners hanging on have been there 40 to 50 years and will be aging out. Expect the pace of the turnover to accelerate. Throw in a few thousand new homes which will be magnets for even wealthier residents.

In 2030 years years, I beleive around 50% of the homes in MM will have different owners than they did in 2020. Incomes and education levels are rapidly rising along with that.

If I was a young couple starting out and thinking about starting a family MM would most certainly be on my radar

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2021 - 9:52am.

an wrote:
flyer wrote:
Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don't know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

Don't tell that to the 14,000 families who want to be on the list for 1800 homes. I know many who can't even get on the list.

Lennar is going with "bidding war" sale, so have fun trying to be the winning bid. CalWest and Shea chose to do first come first serve for their first phase but it won't surprise me if they'll follow Lennar's lead and do bidding war for the following phases.

So the irony is a significant portion of the folks who buy in the top coastal school districts send their kids to private schools anyway. If i had to guess neither flyer nor his kids attended public schools

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2021 - 10:18am.

Good to hear all the feedback--really didn't know much about it. Our friends kids made their choice in CV and those who choose MM will make theirs. Hope it works out for all of them.

Submitted by an on July 27, 2021 - 10:21am.

flyer wrote:
Good to hear all the feedback--really didn't know much about it. Our friends kids made their choice in CV and those who choose MM will make theirs. Hope it works out for all of them.

1st world problem

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2021 - 10:23am.

So true.

Submitted by Coronita on July 27, 2021 - 11:22am.

flyer wrote:
Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don't know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

this is bullshit. I seriously doubt you sent your own kids to public school. My money says that like many other who bought in an area like Carmel Valley, you bought thinking you are getting the "best" elementary schools...For example..... Ocean Air and Sage Canyon, but 2-3 years after sending your kid there, you decided to put your kids into a private school anyway.

If your kids were really gifted, you would have found the instructions at even the CV public schools lacking like many parent found and eventually sent their kids to a private school.

Or maybe you skipped the CV public schools completely and did what many people did, and send them to LJ Country Day or Bishop school anyway, which makes the argument about the public school district lacking a non-argument. The only thing worth considering is ensuring the neighborhood is a safe neighbor, which I'm sure 3Roots will be fine. Concidentally, some of the biggest drug offenses happen to been in the more affluent areas where helicopter parents with money leave a lot of money to directionless spoiled brats who have nothing better to do than to vape and sniff. Wasn't that lady who got caught selling drug some mom from that private high school in Carmel Valley, Cathedral High???....

The teaching staff at DMUSD or San Dieguito is no better or worse than say Poway or up in Carlsbad. What makes a difference in the kid's education was parental involvement, whether it was hands on in the case of me or parents shelling out money for all the after school enrichment if either the parents were incapable of teaching their own kids (in subjects like STEM which many american parents limited education stops around 7th grade understanding. A lot of room moms I worked with as a room dad literally couldn't help their kids in math beyond 6th-7th grade. It was pathetic. So they have to pay money to get substandard tutor help, lol....and by the time they get into middle school, usually the kids get wrapped up into being popular that their education falls off a cliff anyway....more money wasted, lol)

Also, from a distance perspective, sending your kids to Bishop School or LJ Country day, it's a lot closer to do it if you are in 3Roots than CarmelValley. unless of course you are helicopter parent that is too lazy to drop your own kid off at school and have to pay someone to drop your brats off in a bentley at school

Actually, flyer, not sure why you would prefer Carmel Valley over 3 Roots. You can be the biggest fish in the small pond versus being a small fish in the big Carmel Valley pond.

Imagine in 3 roots, being the only guy on the area that complains about how your bentley can't fit into the substandard garage and applying for a architecture change request with the HOA board to extend your garage just so you can fit your bentley in it... Now, that screams, I've got money, you don't all the rest of you 3 Roots plebians!!!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 27, 2021 - 11:32am.

Coronita wrote:
flyer wrote:
Some friends inquired for their kids, and found the developments will, most likely, not be in their desired school districts, so they bought in CV. Don't know if that will become an issue for potential buyers in those MM developments, but for those who want specific school districts for their kids, as many do, it might.

this is bullshit. I seriously doubt you sent your own kids to public school. My money says that like many other who bought in an area like Carmel Valley, you bought thinking you are getting the "best" elementary schools...For example..... Ocean Air and Sage Canyon, but 2-3 years after sending your kid there, you decided to put your kids into a private school anyway.

If your kids were really gifted, you would have found the instructions at even the CV public schools lacking like many parent found and eventually sent their kids to a private school.

Or maybe you skipped the CV public schools completely and did what many people did, and send them to LJ Country Day or Bishop school anyway, which makes the argument about the public school district lacking a non-argument. The only thing worth considering is ensuring the neighborhood is a safe neighbor, which I'm sure 3Roots will be fine. Concidentally, some of the biggest drug offenses happen to been in the more affluent areas where helicopter parents with money leave a lot of money to directionless spoiled brats who have nothing better to do than to vape and sniff. Wasn't that lady who got caught selling drug some mom from that private high school in Carmel Valley, Cathedral High???....

The teaching staff at DMUSD or San Dieguito is no better or worse than say Poway or up in Carlsbad. What makes a difference in the kid's education was parental involvement, whether it was hands on in the case of me or parents shelling out money for all the after school enrichment if either the parents were incapable of teaching their own kids (in subjects like STEM which many american parents limited education stops around 7th grade understanding. A lot of room moms I worked with as a room dad literally couldn't help their kids in math beyond 6th-7th grade. It was pathetic. So they have to pay money to get substandard tutor help, lol....and by the time they get into middle school, usually the kids get wrapped up into being popular that their education falls off a cliff anyway....more money wasted, lol)

Also, from a distance perspective, sending your kids to Bishop School or LJ Country day, it's a lot closer to do it if you are in 3Roots than CarmelValley. unless of course you are helicopter parent that is too lazy to drop your own kid off at school and have to pay someone to drop your brats off in a bentley at school

Actually, flyer, not sure why you would prefer Carmel Valley over 3 Roots. You can be the biggest fish in the small pond versus being a small fish in the big Carmel Valley pond.

Imagine in 3 roots, being the only guy on the area that complains about how your bentley can't fit into the substandard garage and applying for a architecture change request with the HOA board to extend your garage just so you can fit your bentley in it... Now, that screams, I've got money, you don't all the rest of you 3 Roots plebians!!!

The most important thing for health is to be better than those around you. More stressful to be the small fish.

Submitted by Coronita on July 27, 2021 - 11:38am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

The most important thing for health is to be better than those around you. More stressful to be the small fish.

In america, what's great about this country is...no one really needs to give a shit how much wealthier anyone else it. It's not like it's a zero sum game that someone wealthier means you have a shittier life. It's like that in fcked up 3rd world countries and even parts of asia where literally if you aren't in the in crowd, you are totally fucked. But here, in umerica'... doesn't matter in the long run.

Everything they teach you about how it's not just how much you make but what you do with it, is so true. You can be a janitor would smart financial decisions and do pretty well. You could be someone making $300k/year and blowing every dollar and be piss poor... Anyone that looks down on someone because of the work they do... fuck them. kick them in the groin.... That's what makes this country great. Just look at Evelyn Lin....

Submitted by gzz on July 27, 2021 - 12:41pm.

As I recall MM had really high test scores even when it was a more downscale area.

The largest 3roots plan is 3,643 SF 5/4.5. So its high end overlaps with CV's midrange, and is ~20 years newer.

On the other hand, the boxy modern look of the larger 3roots homes is inferior to the more traditional Spanish/French med look of your typical CV place.

The 3R plan that I like the best are the three floor SFH Citrine. Its modern boxy look just works better when it is taller.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/citrine

If you've ever been to newer suburban areas of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Paris, a lot of them have this look, though not as heavy with the stone trim.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 27, 2021 - 3:18pm.

Coronita wrote:
Just look at Evelyn Lin....

Do you mean that literally, or figuratively?

Submitted by an on July 27, 2021 - 3:54pm.

gzz wrote:
As I recall MM had really high test scores even when it was a more downscale area.

The largest 3roots plan is 3,643 SF 5/4.5. So its high end overlaps with CV's midrange, and is ~20 years newer.

On the other hand, the boxy modern look of the larger 3roots homes is inferior to the more traditional Spanish/French med look of your typical CV place.

The 3R plan that I like the best are the three floor SFH Citrine. Its modern boxy look just works better when it is taller.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/citrine

If you've ever been to newer suburban areas of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Paris, a lot of them have this look, though not as heavy with the stone trim.


I personally like the Mediterranean/Spanish look more than the modern look. But the younger crowd do like the modern look more. So, I'm sure the builders have done their research based on their target audience and what they like. That might be one of the reasons why the level of interest is through the roof.

Submitted by Coronita on July 27, 2021 - 5:59pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
Coronita wrote:
Just look at Evelyn Lin....

Do you mean that literally, or figuratively?


Thats up to subjective interpretation

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2021 - 6:28pm.

My post was about our friends kids recently buying in CV vs MM, based upon their preferences. Good or bad, that was their choice. Others make other choices, which is probably great for them. We lived in CV many years ago, and still have rentals there, but haven't lived there for quite awhile.

Submitted by an on July 27, 2021 - 6:35pm.

flyer wrote:
My post was about our friends kids recently buying in CV vs MM, based upon their preferences. Good or bad, that was their choice. Others make other choices, which is probably great for them. We lived in CV many years ago, and still have rentals there, but haven't lived there for quite awhile.

This is the first time I've heard of anyone who cross shop CV w/ MM when school district is remotely on their radar.

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2021 - 7:34pm.

Exactly. I wondered about that, too, but that was what our friends told us. Guess they're happy with their choice, so it all worked out. As was mentioned, thankfully, we're all free to make our own choices in this Country.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 27, 2021 - 8:47pm.

I think you mean free to spend money as you elect, not like actually free to choose.

Why can't I choose to get psychedelic mushrooms at Costco?

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2021 - 9:36pm.

Right. Probably more accurate to say, of the choices available to each of us, we're free to spend money on them as we choose. Still a great option, imo.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2021 - 11:34pm.

an wrote:
gzz wrote:
As I recall MM had really high test scores even when it was a more downscale area.

The largest 3roots plan is 3,643 SF 5/4.5. So its high end overlaps with CV's midrange, and is ~20 years newer.

On the other hand, the boxy modern look of the larger 3roots homes is inferior to the more traditional Spanish/French med look of your typical CV place.

The 3R plan that I like the best are the three floor SFH Citrine. Its modern boxy look just works better when it is taller.

https://www.live3roots.com/homes/citrine

If you've ever been to newer suburban areas of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Paris, a lot of them have this look, though not as heavy with the stone trim.


I personally like the Mediterranean/Spanish look more than the modern look. But the younger crowd do like the modern look more. So, I'm sure the builders have done their research based on their target audience and what they like. That might be one of the reasons why the level of interest is through the roof.

Actually that Tuscan /spanish/mediterranean look has been on its way out for more than five years. They don't build much of that anywhere anymore. Houses with that interior have been viewed as fixer uppers for several years up here

Submitted by Coronita on July 28, 2021 - 12:39am.

an wrote:
flyer wrote:
My post was about our friends kids recently buying in CV vs MM, based upon their preferences. Good or bad, that was their choice. Others make other choices, which is probably great for them. We lived in CV many years ago, and still have rentals there, but haven't lived there for quite awhile.

This is the first time I've heard of anyone who cross shop CV w/ MM when school district is remotely on their radar.

dude, you are recycling what you say over and over again on just about every post about what you inherited and nobody cares. If you're trying to fish for complements on an internet blog to somehow make yourself feel better among people wealthier than you, its probably not working because no one either believes you or gives a shit. Everyone is a billionaire on the internet. Now excuse me. i need to figure out how to extend my garage so i can fit my cessna that my uncle just bought for me in there. Apparently the HOA doesnt like me just leaving it on the driveway...I mean, i prefer to leave it on tje driveway because it boosts my ego in my otherwise low self esteem among my billionaire friends, just so i can thumb my nose at all the plebians CarmelV folks that dont have a cessna.....

Submitted by an on July 28, 2021 - 8:38am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Actually that Tuscan /spanish/mediterranean look has been on its way out for more than five years. They don't build much of that anywhere anymore. Houses with that interior have been viewed as fixer uppers for several years up here

I don't know if it's on its way out for all target audience. I was looking at Toll Brother's in Robertson Ranch in Carlsbad as well as their development in Pacific Highland Ranch and they're both Tuscan /Spanish/Mediterranean style. All the while, houses across the way from TriPoint Homes (formerly Pardee) were all modern. So, I wonder if the cheaper builders are going modern because their target clientele are younger?

I personally don't like the modern exterior look but I like the more transitional (somewhat modern) interior with open concept. I think Toll Brothers homes strike a good balance for me.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2021 - 9:17am.

Toll shifted away from traditional Spanish/Tuscan in RR but that was a few years ago and planned years earlier than it was built. Inside very modern and no more tuscan. The shift is on

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