Mira Mesa Monitor

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:42pm

Im going to start tracking the SFR market here as it seems more of a bellweather and is very interesting. Early 2020 the starter 3BR homes were low to mid 600's but by late Summer market was low to mid 700's with every decent home hotly contested. The majority of the homes were built around the same time, around the same size by Pardee. Its as homogenous a market I can think of for SFR's with differences mostly attributable to which of the 4 quadrants it falls in and even more so lot size.

Ive got a bunch of friends and past clients there so lets start following it and see where it goes in the land of too many walls and lizards

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 14, 2021 - 11:32am.

Update time for week ended yesterday

New listings 10 -

New Pendings of 9 -

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 10 with median price of $782K

The slow steady drip of new inventory with buyers waiting for it. Id imagine the buyer pool must be growing larger. No relief in sight

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 20, 2021 - 5:38pm.

Update time for week ended today

New listings 4 - lowest number this year

New Pendings of 11 - one off highest number this year

Thats -7 change

Closed sales at 5

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 6 with median price of $799K

Inventory is not getting better. Demand is as strong as its been all year. We are heading into May which is one of our strongest months. Buyers gotta be shaking their heads hoping for some more inventory.

Submitted by an on April 20, 2021 - 10:52pm.

Inventory is worst today than in 2005

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 20, 2021 - 11:07pm.

Definitely. Certainly in MM, along the coast and in the 4S area.

Submitted by an on April 21, 2021 - 10:51am.

The numbers are even worst in Sorrento Mesa ;-).

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 21, 2021 - 10:52am.

Lol

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 27, 2021 - 11:55am.

Update time for week ended today

New listings 5 - lowest number this year

New Pendings of 8 - one off highest number this year

Thats -3 change

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 3 with median price of $765K

Inventory is really ONE! Two are currently working through multple offers. the one was listed too high and just reduced. There is basically no houses for sale in the newly rebranded Sorrento Mesa

Submitted by an on April 27, 2021 - 1:49pm.

It's pretty crazy if you think about it... For an area of 23k household and 74k people, there are 3 houses for sale.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 28, 2021 - 11:49am.

Beyond crazy

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 30, 2021 - 8:34am.

Client closed here in December and had to deal with a $20k appraisal shortfall. Four months later there is a comp almost 25% higher within spitting distance. Astounding

Submitted by an on April 30, 2021 - 10:39am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Client closed here in December and had to deal with a $20k appraisal shortfall. Four months later there is a comp almost 25% higher within spitting distance. Astounding

That's insane

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 5, 2021 - 12:33pm.

Update time for week ended yesterday. If we are gonna see any inventory build it should start soon

New listings 11 - highest number this year and as expected. Bring on more inventory as we are a month away from school year ending

New Pendings of 4 - lowest number this year and as expected. there was nothing to buy last week

Thats +7 change

Closed sales at 4

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 11 with median price of $800K. thats more than we have had in a long time. Not only more but nicer and bigger than we have seen in a while. Now will the market absorb it or will more pile on?

Next update should provide some feedback on that

Submitted by an on May 5, 2021 - 6:21pm.

Glad to see seller push the limit to find out what the market price is. IMHO, for a buyer, it's better this than a bidding war against 30 people and have to play chicken with a "Highest and best" offer.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 12, 2021 - 10:38am.

Update time for week ended yesterday. Inventory is not building at least nmot yet

New listings 10 - nice to see that number stay up and hopefully this continues but really need more

New Pendings of 12 - bring more inventory online and it sells, imagine that? Market has no issue absorbing new listings

Thats -2 change

Closed sales at 6

Price reductions at 3.

Current inventory at 11 with median price of $849K. Its not building but at least held up. Sellers are taking notice of comps and asking prices on the rise. Lets see what happens this week

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 18, 2021 - 1:59pm.

Update time. Inventory dropped

New listings 6 - nice to see that number stay up and hopefully this continues but really need more

New Pendings of 12 - no end to demand in sight

Thats -6 change

Closed sales at 14

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 9 with median price of $859K. Inventory dropped and we got fewer new listings. Its not looking like we will get any relief in MM. Maybe this week

Submitted by an on May 18, 2021 - 10:43pm.

And just like that, the median just increased to $875k a few hours after you posted this!

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 19, 2021 - 7:52am.

Data set is so small it bounces around. Big change is in January it was reliably in mid 700s. Now it's mid 800s

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 25, 2021 - 12:57pm.

Update time. Inventory jumped and is highest this year as it should be but still very notable

New listings 10 - one of highest counts this year as it should be

New Pendings of 5 - first sign of a slow down with more inventory available

Thats +5 change

Closed sales at 9

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $860K. Up until the beginning of May median was under 800K. Last 3 weeks its been in the mid 800's. Prices now start in mid 700's which was where the median was when the year started. We need a breather here. Could be the first signs of market saying enough is enough with price jumps here. Something to follow.

Will run NCC after I get back from appointment but not expecting to see this kind of relief there where it rages on. Will know soon enough

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 1, 2021 - 1:07pm.

Update time. Inventory jumped and is about the highest this year as it should be but still very notable

New listings 10 - one of highest counts this year as it should be

New Pendings of 15 - lots of pendings with more inventory to choose form. Highest figure this year. Peak demand time

Thats -5 change

Closed sales at 3

Price reductions at 2.

Current inventory at 17 with median price of $885K. Two things are going on there. Yes prices are rising but we are seeing more of the bigger homes finally starting to hit the market both of which are pulling the median higher.

With the longer weekend Id expect the negotiations to drag out an extra day. Should be a bunch more pendings in the next 24 hours

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 9, 2021 - 12:34pm.

Update time. Inventory jumped and is about the highest this year as it should be but still very notable

New listings 7 - back down to earth

New Pendings of 12 - lots of pendings

Thats -5 change

Closed sales at 8

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 14 with median price of $825K.

In the last 30 days there have been 4 homes closing at $1M or more. The floodgates are open now

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 17, 2021 - 10:51am.

Uggh, went to update and realzed computer shut down without me saving the numbers the last week. Bottom line more of the same

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 23, 2021 - 2:18pm.

Update time. I remember looking at numbers last week before I lost them and thinking no change. Ran numbers yesterday and trend remains.

New listings 9 - back down to earth

New Pendings of 11 - lots of pendings

Thats -2 change

Closed sales at 7

Price reductions at 0.

Current inventory at 18 with median price of $825K.

Slight increase in inventory but nothing of note

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 30, 2021 - 10:57am.

Update time. Market easing up here also

New listings 7 - falling

New Pendings of 6 - pendings falling

Thats +1 change

Closed sales at 15

Price reductions at 1.

Current inventory at 20 with median price of $850K.

Inventory starting to build. Prices stabilizing here also.

Wait until 3 Roots starts selling homes with people fighting to pay above $1M. Im bullish on MM over longterm. Gonna take 5 to 10 years for real impact to set in but I only see better days ahead for this once humble area

Submitted by jmw on July 2, 2021 - 9:32pm.

Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in "old" Mira Mesa?

My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don't get in to 3Roots won't have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don't see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 2, 2021 - 11:36pm.

jmw wrote:
Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in "old" Mira Mesa?

My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don't get in to 3Roots won't have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don't see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.

Did San Elijo Hills have any impact on San Marcos,? Did La Costa Valley change South Carlsbad? Did Encinitas Ranch change Encinitas? Did Eastlake change Chula Vista? Did 4S change Rancho Bernardo? You'll be proven wrong. Won't happen immediately but give me ten years. Will take any and all bets.

Submitted by an on July 3, 2021 - 12:31am.

sdrealtor wrote:
jmw wrote:
Will 3Roots have any impact on pricing in "old" Mira Mesa?

My thoughts are, no. There are 14k people on the waitlist. People who don't get in to 3Roots won't have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan. Also, I don't see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.

Did San Elijo Hills have any impact on San Marcos,? Did La Costa Valley change South Carlsbad? Did Encinitas Ranch change Encinitas? Did Eastlake change Chula Vista? Did 4S change Rancho Bernardo? You'll be proven wrong. Won't happen immediately but give me ten years. Will take any and all bets.

It also won't just be 3Roots that will affect MM. There's an even bigger development called Stonecreek that'll be about 5-10 years behind 3Roots. They're estimating that it'll start building by 2030 and will have ~2.5x more residential unit than 3Roots: https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/ston...

The city is also in the process of rezoning Sorrento Valley, Miramar and the current commercial (strip malls in MM) to be higher density and mix used. https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/city...

Not to mention all the business high rises popping up around UTC area. This will bring high income earners to the areas.

Mira Mesa will change drastically over the next 20 years.

With regards to 3Roots specifically, it'll definitely bring people who can afford $1-1.4m houses to the Southwest part of MM. Their kids will go to Jonas Salk & Challenger, which will change the demographic there and drive up the test scores and image of the schools. 3Roots will be building a huge trail system that will benefit residence of the SW part of MM as well.

Like you sdrealtor, I'm extremely bullish here in the medium to long term.

Submitted by an on July 3, 2021 - 12:38am.

jmw wrote:
People who don't get in to 3Roots won't have old Mira Mesa as their backup plan.

Maybe most don't, but I know one who does.

jmw wrote:
Also, I don't see a mass exodus from old Mira Mesa, to new Mira Mesa because why pay more in property tax and HOA.

Maybe not mass exodus, but I know a few who are part of the 14k applicants. One was too slow, so won't be part of phase 1. One is hoping to get on the list for Lennar if they go w/ first come first server. Several others are pondering buying there but no firm commitment.

Property tax and HOA are just part of the ownership and some old part of MM do have HOA.

Submitted by jmw on July 3, 2021 - 8:00am.

I hope there’s a pop in inventory some time in the next few years to provide another buying opportunity in this area, because I definitely agree with these comments about the long term outlook. 3Roots doesn’t appear to be that pop of inventory since they’re already spoken for. Maybe it’s when the last remaining original owner holdouts move out.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 3, 2021 - 10:01am.

Change comes much slower than people expect but it picks up inertia once it gets going and 3Roots will be the start of a big shift IMO.

I moved to Encinitas in 1997 and it was a pretty sleepy place back then. There was only one restaurant (The Roadhouse) that we could go out and have a nice sit down meal at 9 PM. That all started to change (albeit slowly) shortly thereafter with the arrival of communities like La Costa valley and Encinitas Ranch.

I started in real estate about 20 years ago. At the time I looked around at where I lived and saw everything in place for a momumental change. My friends and colleagues would laugh when I would say we have some bumps ahead but long term this place will become the Newport Beach of SD. I dont think there is any doubt any more that is where we are headed.

When I look at MM I see everything in place for a monumental change there also. Not a beach community but Irvine/Costa Mesa is the future of MM IMO

Submitted by gzz on July 5, 2021 - 12:21pm.

The Newport Beach and Irvine of SD are La Jolla/Del Mar and Carmel Valley/UTC.

It’s very hard to gain the cluster of amenities the very rich demand, I don’t see how Encinitas and Carlsbad will get them. They have too much tract housing and too little commercial areas.

More likely IMO is that as Encinitas and Carlsbad move upscale, they become more like Dana Point and Solana Beach.

For Mira Mesa, its gentrification is generated by tech workers so I think the best comparisons would be formerly middle class areas of SV like Cupertino and Redwood City.

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