May 2020 housing charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 22, 2020 - 9:12pm




















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Submitted by an on July 8, 2020 - 6:54pm.

Just wait, I think you'll be able to in 10 years. They're redoing the community plan right now. They're talking about rezoning both sorrento and Miramar to mix used in some area.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 10, 2020 - 1:22pm.

So the best house we looked in 4S just closed. The house was nice but when you were there the location on a cul de sac with park and views across from it felt kinda magical. I told my clients it would get a slew of offers. It was listed at $1.099M and I told them it would probably close around $1.2M. It garnered 18 offers. It just closed for $1.2M today. saw that one coming.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/17233-Golde...

Interesting note from the field is that in the last 4 weeks there has one new 4BR listings in 4S under 1.2M and its was just listed at 1.197M. That place heated up real fast and now there is nothing to buy there

Submitted by an on July 10, 2020 - 4:48pm.

sdr, I remember touring those models when they were new and IMHO, that's the best development w/in all of 4S. I definitely have a thing for double entry doors but the floor plan definitely feels a lot bigger than the sq-ft.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 14, 2020 - 1:43pm.

Update time!

New listings popped up by 5 which is back to more typical levels we have been seeing.

Pendings dropped by 4 also as there is less and less to buy.

Net-net another loss of -12 homes of inventory on the market. That makes seven consecutive weeks of falling inventory around my 3 zips.

There are more pending SFR's than actives. Inventory is now around 0.8 months.

Price reductions still minimal.

Closed sales dropped a little but still above April through June weekly numbers.

Rates at historic lows. I contacted a lender to refi and they are slow playing me as I suspect they are buried.

A hot market is the new normal this Summer.

Anecdotally looking into 4S Ranch and Del Sur still nothing coming on market in the $1Mish 4BR 2600+ sq ft plus range. The homes we wrote offers on a month or so ago continue closing. This one just closed. Nice house with tiny backyard and not much privacy. Had a multiple offers and closed $65K over asking.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1714...

Here's another in Torrey Meadows. Nice house with nice yard listed at $1.075M. It just closed $55K above asking at $1.13M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1336...

And another we flat out rejected in PHR barely in 92130 zip code. Nice house but detached condo with no real property and the noise from the 56 was deafening to us. My opinion was house should not sell for any more than $1.05M based upon comps and location. It closed for $1.13M.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/6608...

I always tell clients if someone wants to pay that much its fine. I just dont want it to be you or one of my clients. There's always another house and people deserve to live in a nice home when paying these prices.

This is what sizzling looks like. The first two and the others we missed out on had an average of 10 offers. That means there are plenty of "losers" still out there as well as more buyers entering the market daily.

Submitted by gzz on July 14, 2020 - 3:06pm.

SDR, your redfin links make me think we should boycott them for obnoxiously lowballing our properties.

The Albert Ave property you linked to Redfin says is worth 65k less than the price it just sold for. If that isn't the market price, what is?

All of my properties are severely underestimated. Two of them are off by more than 30%. My two bedroom condo with an ocean view is "Redfin Estimated" as worth less than 1 bedrooms in the same building without views have recently sold for.

I think they do this as an underhanded way to get people to register for their site.

Zillow tends to err downward too, but not to this absurd degree of saying 2-bedroom condos are worth less than 2019/2020 of 1-bedrooms in the same building.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 14, 2020 - 3:11pm.

Redfin estimates are based upon listing prices and then sales prices. These properties should adjust soon. Really who cares what these numbers say any way. We aren't selling. A bank appraiser would never use then. They are there for entertainment only

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 14, 2020 - 9:13pm.

I haven't looked for a while but Redfin consistently overestimates my house by about $150k (based on my own estimate which could of course be wrong). Interestingly, zillow consistently underestimates it by about the same amount... so we have a $300k spread between the two. That should be enough to tell you how useful these estimates are...

Submitted by gzz on July 15, 2020 - 1:50pm.

Rich, sounds like there's an element of your house that is hard to value. Perhaps a huge lot that is mostly unusable steep canyon.

Zillow is quite good for condos and single family in OB.

It does a bad job with smaller multifamily properties, failing to give them a premium for larger lots and valuing them as if they were single houses, but two 2/1s by the beach are more valuable than one 4/2.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 15, 2020 - 2:43pm.

Good guess, I am on a steep canyon (with a sidelong mission bay view to further confuse things)...

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 15, 2020 - 4:36pm.

And thank you both for being part of the restoration of order here. Check out the active forum topics. Nearly all RE related. What a quick transformation:)

Submitted by Coronita on July 16, 2020 - 3:06am.

I'm not sure I understand but PHR seemed to have become really popular in recent times in 92130. Not sure why. Is it just newer and closer to the new amenities in PHR or is it closer to the newer middle and high school or both? I don't know.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 16, 2020 - 11:34am.

I would guess newer and schools. The floorplans tend be more functional for todays living. The older homes offer larger lots on average but in CV they still are squeezed (very few large lots) so many decide they would rather have the newer home. Anecdotally many of the more recent immigrant families prefer not to have to deal with contractors either. They tend to worry more about getting taken advantage of.

FWIW prices up by me seem to have gone bonkers and are catching up to CV quickly. Model match to mine just closed at a price that is a good 15% above prices one year ago.

Submitted by gzz on July 16, 2020 - 1:56pm.

SDR, I wish I could say 92106/7 were also bonkers. In 92107 inventory is also very low, about 1 month. But no sales that are clearly higher than early 2020 prices. 92016 inventory is a normal 2-3 months.

The pace of sales is very strong, but new listings are almost keeping pace, except at the low end. Right now there is only one SFH in 92107 listed under $1 million out of 21 listings.

Part of this may be the gradual digestion of the Upper Voltaire project of 28 new construction townhouses in the 640-730k range.

That's about 6 months' worth of organic condo inventory hitting the market all at once. And they are big and nice enough they overlap with the lower end of the SFH market. Only 1 of the 28 units hasn't been sold yet. Here's pictures of the last unit:

https://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-190033617

I wonder if "Upper Voltaire" is an intentional pun on Upper Volta, the former name of the West African country Burkina Faso. The maps my elementary school had circa 1990 still had the old name on them.

I like the design. Almost like Streamline Moderne, like the OB Post Office on Santa Monica Ave, built in the early 60s.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 16, 2020 - 3:18pm.

I like the kitchen in those more than the rest of the home. Lots of angled walls seem like it would be a challenge to furnish. But they are new and people love new so they will all sell fairly quickly

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 21, 2020 - 9:05pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Redfin estimates are based upon listing prices and then sales prices. These properties should adjust soon. Really who cares what these numbers say any way. We aren't selling. A bank appraiser would never use then. They are there for entertainment only

And just like that the estimate is back in line. It takes them a week or so to adjust

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/1714...

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 21, 2020 - 9:17pm.

Update time! Gonna be brief tonight. Big celebration tomorrow to prepare.

New listings popped up by 10 to a number more typically seen in May during peak listing season. This time of year we traditionally see much lower numbers as folks are vacationing. Another example that the local RE world has been turned on its ear.

Pendings back up 4 and these counts continue to be very strong since June 1st

Net-net another loss of -6 homes of inventory on the market. If not for a surge in new listings the decline would have been even larger as high pendings continue well into Summer. That makes eight consecutive weeks of falling inventory around my 3 zips.

There are still more pending SFR's than actives. Inventory is still around 0.8 months.

Price reductions still minimal.

Closed sales level still well above April through June weekly numbers.

It still feels a little early to say this but it kinda feels like there has been a fundamental shift to higher price levels that are here to stay. Only time will tell but the persistence and strength of the market strikes me with a sense of permanance. Only time will tell.

Submitted by gzz on July 22, 2020 - 1:38pm.

SDR, Unfortunately SD City and statewide data are not as bonkers as north county. Still quite healthy though. I read a few days ago most of California is at a 2-3 month inventory.

Also, 10 year below 0.6% and silver at $23.23 an oz!

It would be odd if NC didn’t outperform right now. Economic stress is more in the low end purchase plus rental market. Those are less important in SDR’s territory than most areas.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 23, 2020 - 8:41pm.

If you'd like to suggest a second as submarket I'd be happy to track it also. I know you follow yours but maybe something like North Park, Hillcrest, Normal Heights, University Heights etc might be interesting. Ideas? Anyone?

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 26, 2020 - 12:13pm.

gzz wrote:
SDR, Unfortunately SD City and statewide data are not as bonkers as north county. Still quite healthy though. I read a few days ago most of California is at a 2-3 month inventory.

Also, 10 year below 0.6% and silver at $23.23 an oz!

It would be odd if NC didn’t outperform right now. Economic stress is more in the low end purchase plus rental market. Those are less important in SDR’s territory than most areas.

Just an fyi attached market not as strong as detached market here also. Urban not as strong as suburban.

What the data Ive seen up here represents is another data point verifying the ditching of the doorman for the cul de sac

Submitted by an on July 26, 2020 - 2:41pm.

For my area, w/in SD City, SFR current active is 16, pending is 33, and closed w/in the last 30 days is 28. Pretty insane stats IMHO.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 26, 2020 - 3:46pm.

Not surprising. It's both suburban and relatively affordable in MM

Submitted by an on July 26, 2020 - 4:23pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Not surprising. It's both suburban and relatively affordable in MM

I can't believe we're here saying $725-750k for a small 3/2-4/2 1100-1300 sq-ft house is relatively affordable. I'm not complaining, just sad for those kids who are just starting out.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 26, 2020 - 7:40pm.

Don't they still start in low to mid 600's?Also when I was starting out over 20 years ago a great rate was 7.125% on a five year fixed arm. The biggest obstacle now is the down payment more than ever

Submitted by an on July 26, 2020 - 8:03pm.

Mid 600s is available only if you don't have a view, on the east side of MM, and have not been upgraded.

If you have a view and are on the west side, it'll start in the low 700s now. I would have never guessed we're here 15 years ago.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 26, 2020 - 9:26pm.

Glad to hear that one just like that must've worked out well. Sounds similar to up by me in that location and lot are more important than the house in many if not most cases

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2020 - 1:56pm.

Update time again! Gonna be brief again.

Last weeks new listings were an aberration and they dropped almost in half this week from 39 to 21. Not only back to where they were but the lowest count since end of March when i started tracking and we were in shut down mode. Its vacation season so not completely a surprise. I got away for a few days last week and know others who did also.

Pendings fell by 10 to lowest number since May. There simply is very littel to buy and it had to hit the pendings eventually.

Net-net another loss of -14 homes of inventory on the market. That makes nine consecutive weeks of falling inventory around my 3 zips.

There are still more pending SFR's than actives. Inventory is still around 0.7 months.

Price reductions still minimal.

Closed sales were level and still well above April through June weekly numbers. The lack of inventory should show up in these figures in a few weeks too.

In my zip (92009) there are 35 actives and 73 pendings so less than 1/2 month inventory. I dont know that it ever got this low in 04.

Submitted by gzz on July 29, 2020 - 4:48pm.

Is there a public source for pendings by zip code?

Submitted by an on July 29, 2020 - 8:37pm.

Redfin

Submitted by gzz on July 29, 2020 - 10:38pm.

In 92107, the hottest part of the market is the high end of the condos (above $600,000) and the low end of the SFH (under $1.25m). The bottom and top of the market however is also doing fine.

Nationwide mortgage purchase applications are up 21% over the same week of 2019.

From an article in May 2020:

"The current spread between 10-year Treasuries and 30-year mortgages is about 260 basis points. Typically it's about 180 basis points, Fratantoni said at a virtual event the organization sponsored."

At the moment it remains about 260 points, 3.2% versus 0.57%.

Article from this month that includes a 5-year spread chart:

https://eyeonhousing.org/2020/07/treasur...

Note that the past few months have been the only time in the past 5 years it has been persistently above 2%.

While it is likely in my view to go back down, the foreclosure ban, extreme distress in commercial mortgages, and the sudden Covid forbearance quite plausibly could cause the high spread to persist. And there's no urgency for lenders to reduce their profits with demand so high right now.

More likely in the next few months, the Fed will shift its purchases to GSEs to get the spread back to normal amounts, and continue to keep Treasury rates at record lows.

Housing is the easiest part of the economy to goose, and it needs goosing. Thus, I think we'll see the national average rates below 3% soon, and 2.375% 0-point 30 years from the discount lenders to the best customers.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 4, 2020 - 3:53pm.

Update time!

Aaahhhh Summer! Late July/Early August...traditionally one of the sleepiest markets each year. Time to sneak in one last vacation before the kids head back to school. What no vacations? Kids not going back to school? So whats that done to the market????? Kabooooommm!!!

New listings back to 31 which is 10 more than last weeks low number but very much in line with what we have been seeing since mid-June.

Pendings? Up by 20! Easily the highest count of the year. Must be those young families rushing to get settled before end of Summer? NOPE 36 were priced $1.25M or higher! 40% were over $1.5M and the strength continues all the way up the price spectrum.

Net-net an astounding loss of -24 homes of inventory on the market. That makes ten consecutive weeks of falling inventory around my 3 zips.

Just to reset this data is for Encinitas 92024 and S Carlsbad 92009/92011. On average there were 2 houses that went pending every day between $1.5M and $2M and 1 house each day over $2M. This is unbeleivable strength and lest you think it is purely low interest rate driven? My clients closed a jumbo loan last week they were well qualified for and it was brutally tough underwriting for rates not near the low conventional numbers we are seeing. There has gotten be some serious cash changing hands in this market.

Which brings us to serious cash locally. Last week after having been pretty range bound between $50 and $80/share for the last decade our largest private sector employer QCOM's approx 13,000 San Diego employees are sitting at $110/share with analyst price targets as high as $140.

I remember arguing with old timers 10 years ago that SD had fundamentally changed. They would roll out the "its never different this time" tropes. Well they are all gone now and SD has fundamentally changed economically. Its no longer a sleepy beach town over reliant on the military and tourism as it was 20 years ago. Its an economy driven by high tech, life/health sciences with military tech on top of military personel and tourism. The shift to working from home will only drive others to relocate here for its quality of life vis a vis other high end job markets.

Need more proof? This is being built in Encinitas.

https://www.alilahotels.com/about-alila/...

This is not a resort for millionaires its a resort for those with eight, nine and even ten figures net worths. Thats billionaires folks. Rooms at this brands other hotels around the world start around $2000 a night. Dont know that they will go that high here but I would not expect to see average nightly rates below $1,000.

I said it before 10 years ago and I'll say it again. This place I call home is changing and changing fast. It feels like we are taking the next leg up with a new floor being laid. Now dont get me wrong, there are always cycles with bumps in the road. Prices could and should swing back down a bit at some point but my feeling long term remains. We've taken another step up the high end market ladder in the US and in the World.

Oh yeah, just to be complete. Closed sales up to 36 which is 5 more than last week and at the highest levels this year. Price reductions less frequent with sellers digging their heels in and often being rewarded for it.

In my zip (92009) there are 37 actives and 79 pendings so well under a 1/2 month inventory. End of the month last week so we had lots go from pending to sold so total pendings not up that much.

This market has been chewing bubblegum and kicking ass but it just ran out of bubble gum. Who knows what is next? Until next week....

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