May 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 16, 2015 - 6:07pm
Hi all.  Not much has changed from last month's update, so I'm just going to do a chart dump and dispense with the words.  Starting now.

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Submitted by poorgradstudent on June 18, 2015 - 9:42am.

Looks like volume is cooling off a bit, while inventory is creeping up a little. Active inventory is still below 2 months. It's looking like buyers aren't excited to pay the current prices but new sellers aren't jumping in to put downward pressure on prices.

Mortgage rates dipped a bit with the Fed's announcement this week, so that may prop things up for a bit. But whenever they actually raise rates I expect a fairly swift decrease in demand and increase in inventory.

Submitted by Escoguy on June 18, 2015 - 10:23pm.

I'm actually expecting rates to go lower, we may have seen the peak for the year already. Not that the economy is softening but it's also not picking up steam.

Almost every inflation uptick is offset by an efficiency gain.

Renewable energy will bring long term inflation down significantly and keep a lid on rates. The forecast is for solar to grow exponentially with costs dropping.

Submitted by spdrun on June 20, 2015 - 3:08am.

Renewable energy has almost nothing to do with mortgage rates, especially not at current costs.

We're still holding at 4% for the 30-year. Hope this hits 4.5-5% by year's end and that the economy continues in tepid fashion. Good enough for the Fed to raise rates a bit. Not good enough for even more people to want to buy :)

Submitted by brg654 on June 21, 2015 - 7:25pm.

@Escoguy - agree with your position on rates. the short-end of the curve will move up, but the long end won't - and there's no way the fed will invert the curve and put us back into recession. there's no inflation on the horizon, and we still have demographic factors in the developed world leading to low rates and a global search for yield.

Submitted by spdrun on June 21, 2015 - 8:48pm.

We're due for a good 'ol 'cession sometime in the next four years -- the US has never gone more than ten years without a blessed opportunity presenting itself.

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