San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
March 2018 Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 7, 2018 - 2:21pm
Apologies for the delay in updating the data... let's dive right in!
Home prices have been very strong so far this year, with the median price per square foot showing a big jump in February. Bear in mind that this is a noisy figure, but the fact that the single family median held firm in March strengthens the case that the price increase is "for real":
We'll know for sure when the Case-Shiller index is released. In the meantime, my proxy which uses the single-family median pr/sqft for the most recent 2 months is looking... robust:
Speaking of C-S, here's a thing... last month's figure was just shy of equalling the (nominal) bubble peak. I imagine the peak will be surpassed at the next release.
Closed sales were typical but pendings have been slightly weak:
And active inventory is higher than last year:
So months of inventory are higher than last year at this time, but right in line with the prior couple years:
...and quite low in the grand scheme of things:
Here's months of inventory overlaid with price changes... this shows both how scarce invetory is (the blue inventory line is inverted), and the fact that price changes track inventory reasonably well. The price surge in these past few months simply reflects the ongoing scarcity of supply vs. demand, if you believe this relationship still holds sway.
One thing worth watching will be interest rates. Between January and March, mortgage rates rose quite rapidly, from about 4% to 4.5%. The March price stats above are from homes that probably went into contract a couple months ago at this point. It will be interesting to see how that impacts things... perhaps it's responsible for the slight weakness in pending sales.
But it seems like it would take a pretty big change in supply, demand, or both to cause the trend to change.
Some more graphs below.
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