Lol, Party Like is 1999..

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Submitted by flu on November 4, 2019 - 9:43am

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 4, 2019 - 9:50am.

IMO the main difference is Dumb money is sitting this one out.

And interest rates are at historic lows and falling.
Plus no one seems interested in taking the punch bowl away.

Submitted by flu on November 4, 2019 - 10:11am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO the main difference is Dumb money is sitting this one out.

And interest rates are at historic lows and falling.
Plus no one seems interested in taking the punch bowl away.

I am not complaining, I'm laughing my ass off ...because I am probably dumb money...lol....

Submitted by flu on November 4, 2019 - 10:15am.
Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 4, 2019 - 10:24am.

Dumb money does not mean your dumb, it just means your a retail investor.

Smart money just means professional fund managers/agencies/brokers/banks etc...

IMO we are still a long way from 2004-7 as far as mortgages.

Submitted by flu on November 4, 2019 - 10:31am.

I know Shoveler... but in my case I think both definitions of dumb equally apply. And that's ok. In America, it took me many years to learn this is a country where really dumb people can still make decent money, often more so that smart people that do analysis to paralysis. I'll take dumb for the win.

Hey if Cardi B can make millions with a song like I like it like that, anyone can!

Submitted by burghMan on November 4, 2019 - 11:10am.

flu wrote:
I know Shoveler... but in my case I think both definitions of dumb equally apply. And that's ok. In America, it took me many years to learn this is a country where really dumb people can still make decent money, often more so that smart people that do analysis to paralysis. I'll take dumb for the win.

Hey if Cardi B can make millions with a song like I like it like that, anyone can!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pz9_OrDjwq4

Submitted by flu on November 4, 2019 - 11:31am.

When you are dumb or think you are dumb, life is much simpler. You don't constantly feel pressured to "out-do" all the other dumb people in the world that does better than you financially. that's the trap that many very intelligent people, PHD's and engineers, make. They think because of their superior intellect, they should have no problems mastering the day to day "easier" things other people are able to be successful with. And when they fall short or miss opportunity, it doesn't compute. "How could that be? I'm smarter...." Nope, not really. So just be dumb. Life is much .ore simple and happulier. and you'll probably do better too!

All the people that made a shitload of money on real estate. Do you think many of them even know about Case Shiller ?

And work wise the moment I stopped doing the really hard work of hands on detail oriented engineering only smart people do, I'm now doing much dumber tasks like most senior directors. I attend meetings, I coordinate, inremoce roadblocks other managers directors or situations create, I maken high level architectural decisions.
..my hours are better and I get paid a lot more for doing this, more than when I was doing a lot smarter work....

Dumb is good. Dumb for the win.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on November 4, 2019 - 12:40pm.

Are you saying merit is overrated and that luck (and all that encompasses) is more relevant to success? I suppose it depends how you define success

I say you want it all — good looks, good health, money, street smarts, intellect, knowledge, etc... If you can, why not?

Submitted by spdrun on November 4, 2019 - 2:40pm.

1999 was a fun year. Dot.bomb crash in 2000-1 was even more fun. Low rates aren't the savior that everyone makes them out to be -- if they were, Europe would be growing at 10% per year.

Submitted by gzz on November 6, 2019 - 9:42am.

Flu, I thought you were a conservative index funder? That didn’t make you 30% YTD did it?

Submitted by flu on November 6, 2019 - 10:24am.

gzz wrote:
Flu, I thought you were a conservative index funder? That didn’t make you 30% YTD did it?

I am.. Like I said before that portion of my portfolio is over at Vanguard and I dont touch and it beats my self directed accounts over the long period of time consistently.

However, this year I got lucky. It had a lot to do with selling Jan 2020 expiring AMD call options with a $15/share strike price I bought when AMD was still in the single digits, lol.

Skill had nothing to do with it. just dumb luck.

But proceeds from dumb luck, after taxes, goes to the passive accounts where I can't do something that stupid... or paying off mortgages (previously)...so less risky assets have no debt.

S&P500 actually is doing very well this year. It's 22.5% so it's not that much worse...less of a headache probably ... people who index probably would do better than trying to time the markets. investing $5000 is completely different than say investing $500k. you wouldn't be nearly as reckless with the later as the former.

Submitted by temeculaguy on November 7, 2019 - 12:04am.

Flu that is awesome! You keep living your best life and ignore the haters.

I've got all the grand kids college funds tied mostly to the S&P which makes me nervous because they are time certain withdrawals. I worry the winning streak cannot continue. I find it ironic that the enemy to their college fund is a socialist who promises free college. I try to convince myself that it is a win/win or at least a can't lose scenario. Then I'm reminded of the adage "you think it's expensive now, wait till it's free."

Submitted by flu on November 7, 2019 - 7:27am.

temeculaguy wrote:
Flu that is awesome! You keep living your best life and ignore the haters.

I've got all the grand kids college funds tied mostly to the S&P which makes me nervous because they are time certain withdrawals. I worry the winning streak cannot continue. I find it ironic that the enemy to their college fund is a socialist who promises free college. I try to convince myself that it is a win/win or at least a can't lose scenario. Then I'm reminded of the adage "you think it's expensive now, wait till it's free."

I don't think you need to worry as much if you have 20 years before your grandkids needs it....unless they will be using it for k-12 private school... Personally, for a 529k, I'm not trying for that maximum return year after year. I am just trying to beat that 4.25% cost of college increase each year in a tax advantage account. If I can do that, I win...With the oldest 529k account, I started out just doing the vanguard total stock market index and vanguard total international stock market inbex at roughly a 70/30 split....It's getting closer taking distributions from it and it will be the first of 3 accounts that will be used...I'm slowly moving elsewhere into other funds..

The problem with Vanguard's 529k... you can only have a maximum of 5 funds, and you can only reallocate twice per year. In the past, it wasn't a big issue because the allocation was only in two funds and not being able to make changes frequently was a good thing since I couldn't mess things up like I normally do... but now I'm trying to reduce the stock market allocation, it's a little bit more difficult to figure out where. Some of it went/is going into vanguard inflation protected securities.....I hate this bond fund or bonds in general. Part is going into Vanguard Star fund....not a big fan this fund too because it's basically a fund of funds.... And part of it is going into Vanguard income portfolio, which is basically more bonds.... The tiny allocation into the Vanguard High Yield (junk) bond was a mistake from not confirming my reallocation correctly and will be fixed next year. Whoops. Did I mention that I hated bonds? Lol...

Oh well. I barely noticed the slow monthly contributions throughout the years. Probably a few less eating lunch and dinner at a restaurants, a few less track days... so my kid has a option to go to a decent school somewhere and not be swamped with student debt ... well worth the hassle imho.

I'm not terribly worried about politics. Obama, Trump, Warren... it's just a shitshow that doesnt really put food on the table at the end of the day.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 7, 2019 - 8:45am.

temeculaguy wrote:
Then I'm reminded of the adage "you think it's expensive now, wait till it's free."

College ,

If it becomes free I am thinking of going back to get either an MBA or masters in political science.

We are already seeing degree deflation, just give it a few years after it's free.

I guess the cs guys will still get the bucks for the foreseeable future anyway.

Submitted by burghMan on November 7, 2019 - 9:13am.

temeculaguy wrote:
Then I'm reminded of the adage "you think it's expensive now, wait till it's free."

What we have now is perhaps the worst form of economics: private entities subsidized by public money.

College education is already socialist. The UC system is the biggest employer in California. Government backed private student loans have been a huge factor in rising college costs. Private, for-profit colleges have made billions from students using government guaranteed loans to pay tuition.

We'd be much better off with a direct form or socialism than the one we have today. If government provided college for free, there would be more transparency and fewer middlemen taking a cut.

Submitted by spdrun on November 7, 2019 - 9:30am.

The-Shoveler --

As far as degree deflation CUNY and SUNY have been free (given income < $120k/yr) for a few years, but nearly free for decades. This doesn't make their STEM degree programs any less competitive -- the difference is that the "weeders" of the system are very difficult classes at the beginning, not whose parents have how much money.

As far as going back to school, generally only the first bachelor's degree is free for states that have "free college." Master's won't be free. But, Ph. D. programs have been free for decades -- they often actually pay you for teaching and doing research.

It's not GOOD pay (like $30k/yr + $10k/yr housing stipend), but it's better than having to pay THEM.

Submitted by flu on November 7, 2019 - 9:44am.

There is already a free college program. We have in CA The Promise Program..

https://www.sdccd.edu/about/departments-...

Honestly, I'm on the fence of this topic. I am not against some financial assistance to otherwise people who cannot afford to go to a JC , trade school, vocational school, or even a state school if it makes their prospects of employment and being a productive and tax paying citizen better.

I just don't think free tuition should be a free for all for any degree. Like a free tuition to a bullshit Shakesperian History major that is unemploymable should not be state paid. Those majors are reserved for families that can support a kid via a trust fund. Also, US Citizens only or at least first. But the nice thing about the Promise Program is that it is partly funded by donations. I do understand we shouldn't make this a compulsory tax every has to pay

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 7, 2019 - 9:49am.

STEM degrees are not being deflated, but we are seeing Jobs like "sales clerk" requiring a 4 year degree in some places.

Submitted by spdrun on November 7, 2019 - 10:02am.

Here's the thing ... we've spent $7 trillion (that's with a T) sending our military bullies all over the world for the past 18 years. $400 billion per year. You should be complaining about tax money being bled from CA to support things like military thuggery abroad, the "War on Some Drugs", etc, not about the money actually being invested in the futures of Americans.

Say Harvard costs $70,000 per year. So a million bucks could send about 15 people to Harvard for a year. Multiply that by 400000 and that $400 billion could give 6 million students a year a full ride to Harvard. Isn't that better than buying corpses, cripples, and mental illnesses with that money? (Public universities tend to be cheaper, so the real number is higher than 6 million. Much higher.)

Fuck militarism, fuck endless war. Oh yeah. We killed some al Qaeda bigwig last month. So what? We've been killing people like him for almost two decades ... it doesn't seem to stop the next PoS from emerging. It's like a sick game of Whack-a-Mole, except that we never want to win. Endless war is too profitable for the defence contractors and their pet whores in Congress.

Imagine a country where promising students from lower-income backgrounds could go to college and get a career without selling their souls to the military...

Submitted by flu on November 7, 2019 - 10:35am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
STEM degrees are not being deflated, but we are seeing Jobs like "sales clerk" requiring a 4 year degree in some places.

Or a physical therapist requiring advanced degree

Actually as I said before, if educational cost is an issue, we should do something about the College Board and how expensive it is just to take an SAT or AP test. The CEO of that nonprofit milks over $1million/year and then comes up with some stupid idea of adversity hardship score to try to give brownie points to people who are at an economic disadvantage....Typical progressive hypocrisy.

Submitted by spdrun on November 7, 2019 - 10:45am.

^^^

Nationalize the SATs ... have something similar to the Baccalaureat exam in France or the Regents Board exams in NY state instead. Make it free as part of HS graduation.

Public schools in NY don't require SAT or ACT scores -- Regents and/or their own admission tests are considered good enough:

https://www.cuny.edu/academics/testing/t...

Submitted by gzz on November 7, 2019 - 8:22pm.

Flu, congrats on the AMD calls. I’d never have done that, I stay away from capital intensive competitive industries like that.

Closest thing was during the big recession I purchased SNDK for about 5 and was pleased when it went to 9 in a few months and I sold.

Four years later it hit 100, and was delisted when they were purchased for 76. I know that even if I had held on at 9, I would have sold at 11 or 15.

Might have happened again with UBER. After my profit on that short hit 25% I cut my position in half. And it has kept falling since. I am just not very good at holding onto big winners.

My favorite Vanguard funds are VWO and VYMI. I only went in a few weeks ago, so far slight outperformance of the benchmark VOO.

Submitted by flu on November 15, 2019 - 7:52am.

This never fails. Whenever I sell a part of my holdings and move it into cash to go for that safer path....Things go up.

Damn you AMD and the stock market. Who would have thought a single digit stock would end up at $39 a few years later. This sucks.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 15, 2019 - 11:42am.

Can't win them all flu, just need to win more than you lose.

You have a lot of company as well, a lot of retail investors are watching the market go up from the side lines.

Submitted by flu on November 15, 2019 - 2:10pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Can't win them all flu, just need to win more than you lose.

You have a lot of company as well, a lot of retail investors are watching the market go up from the side lines.

Dow up another 200+pts today.... Dang

Submitted by flu on November 16, 2019 - 1:10am.

This really sucks. My 401k allocation is all fvcked up now.

After my latest rebalance, only 36% is domestic stock, 14% is foreign stock. The rest is bonds (28%) short term (22%) and a bunch of minute stuff that doesn't matter. No wonder the 401k is underperforming everything else, only 19.2% ytd

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 16, 2019 - 6:20am.

I don't even want to look at mine LOL.

I am only about 30% stocks, 70% bonds so I will be lucky to get 10%.

I sold DIS at 120 last year so that is my biggest regret.

Submitted by flu on November 16, 2019 - 10:23am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I don't even want to look at mine LOL.

I am only about 30% stocks, 70% bonds so I will be lucky to get 10%.

I sold DIS at 120 last year so that is my biggest regret.

60/40 is generally my split between stock and and bonds+short term. "Because that's what they say." I don't know why I dipped below that Listening to doomsayers that constantly say the world is ending can be hazardous to one's retirement financial health.

I guess I'm in good company.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/about-...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 17, 2019 - 9:08am.

I was at a free stock seminar yesterday and I heard two things I thought were interesting.

1) The US FED was quietly keeping Europe banks and Deutsche bank particularly solvent by injecting 50 billion dollars "per-day" (already exceeding all the 2008-9 bail out over the last year). (not sure the above is true "it was a free seminar lol" but I thought it interesting).

2) The brokers have not completely figured out how to make money with free trading yet.

IMO No one seems interested in pulling the punch bowl away yet.

Submitted by spdrun on November 17, 2019 - 11:17am.

^^^ "Punchbowls" only have limited effect ... if they were great for ecahhhhhhnamies, Europe and Japan would be growing at 20% per year.

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