Left San Diego

User Forum Topic
Submitted by EconProf on June 10, 2021 - 6:59am

My previous forum topic, Leaving San Diego, got too long and unwieldy, so here is an update after two months of living in the St. George area that sticks to real estate investing.
We are in escrow to buy two side-by side condos for $335,000 each. 3 Br, 2 Ba, double garage, 20 years old, single story, great walkable neighborhood. Rents $1500 each--could be higher, but with these are long-term tenants so I will not raise for a year. On a monthly basis, HOA is $150, property tax $80 (under CA's vaunted Prop 13 would be about 1 1/4%/ year or $300).
Both rents and prices are jumping between 12-18% per year due to the influx of people, especially from CA.

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 9:32am.

Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

Submitted by Coronita on June 10, 2021 - 11:07am.

Quote:
We are in escrow to buy two side-by side condos for $335,000 each. 3 Br, 2 Ba, double garage,

What's the AGI of your average tenant pool there?

$1500/month on 335k rental, that's like 5% before cost... Not necessary better than here in SD.

For comparison. San Diego Mira Mesa 1/1 condo is $330k and rent is around $1850+/month now. And you only need to deal with 1-2 people tenant and someone with an AGI of $90-100k/year at least before RSU/stock/bonus.

So I wouldn't say this is a huge advantage in UT from a cash flow perspective.

Submitted by Coronita on June 10, 2021 - 11:06am.

deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 1:31pm.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

That is debatable and unproven but the point is don't count on an endless stream of CA emigrants to keep propping up the housing prices in St. George UT. If/When this current housing bubble crashes, places like St George UT are going to take it extra hard in the rear.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2021 - 3:16pm.

Here comes the Permabear who missed the opportunity of his lifetime bringing the bubble talk again already disproven over and over by Rich

Submitted by XBoxBoy on June 10, 2021 - 3:38pm.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I'm not saying it's not true, I'm just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I've seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that's not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 3:46pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Here comes the Permabear who missed the opportunity of his lifetime bringing the bubble talk again already disproven over and over by Rich

Here you go again with your realtor nonsense. Only a realtor or used car salesmen would use BS cliches like "opportunity of a lifetime".
Go ahead and believe we are not in a bubble. Ignore all the signs around you.

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 3:50pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I'm not saying it's not true, I'm just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I've seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that's not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2021 - 4:18pm.

Home Buying Opportunities over our lifetimes: Some from time to time I kid our resident permabears that they missed the opportunity of a lifetime. Last week I was on my weekly call with a SoCal housing economist who posted this.     It actually covers homebuying over our lifetimes. Hard to argue that buying a home around 2009 to 2012 was not the opportunity of lifetime looking at this. Also the increase in the median income is a bit stunningHome Buying Opportunities over our lifetimes: Some from time to time I kid our resident permabears that they missed the opportunity of a lifetime. Last week I was on my weekly call with a SoCal housing economist who posted this. It actually covers homebuying over our lifetimes. Hard to argue that buying a home around 2009 to 2012 was not the opportunity of lifetime looking at this. Also the increase in the median income is a bit stunning

I didn't say it is the opportunity of a lifetime. I'm not selling anything here. I said it was the opportunity of a lifetime. If this wasn't what was the opportunity of our lifetime?

As for a bubble. Rich has covered that on the main page with data ad infinitum

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2021 - 4:08pm.

deadzone wrote:
XBoxBoy wrote:
Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I'm not saying it's not true, I'm just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I've seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that's not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear 's anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words "taking it in the rear extra hard"

Submitted by XBoxBoy on June 10, 2021 - 4:21pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear 's anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words "taking it in the rear extra hard"

I'm not believing either version until someone puts up real data. (I'm also not saying either is wrong without data to disprove one side or the other. I'm just asking if there is real data. And btw, that question hardly seems like justification for the two of you to piss on each other. But I guess to each his own.)

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 4:25pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
deadzone wrote:
XBoxBoy wrote:
Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I'm not saying it's not true, I'm just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I've seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that's not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear 's anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words "taking it in the rear extra hard"

Not sure what you are arguing here SDR other than just trying to be a dick which is what you do. But since life is so great for you in your wonderful tract home utopia of NCC, why does it bother you so much when anyone on here mentions bubbles or crashes? That is kind of what this site is really about. People don't need to come on here for RE cheerleading, they can get that anywhere. I'll bet this site had at least 10x more traffic back in the bubble hey days in the late 2000s. That's what people are interested in, crashes and train wrecks. Your anecdotes about who is buying homes in your neighborhood, or what you heard from a friend of a friend are utterly boring.

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 4:33pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Cliff notes version. Don’t believe the anecdotes of people actually participating in the market, believe the Permabear 's anecdotes who’s been sitting on the sideline and using his own words "taking it in the rear extra hard"

I'm not believing either version until someone puts up real data. (I'm also not saying either is wrong without data to disprove one side or the other. I'm just asking if there is real data. And btw, that question hardly seems like justification for the two of you to piss on each other. But I guess to each his own.)

I have offered data, Case Shiller in fact, to prove that RE prices are on fire all over the country, from San Diego to Phoenix to St George UT to Bozeman Mt. That is evidence that the cause of this phenomenon can't simply be "everyone wants to live in San Diego" or "Californians are all leaving to go to St George UT or Bozeman MT".
On the contrary, the reason is a global financial bubble cause by the Fed buying everything.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetaryp...

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2021 - 5:31pm.

Not cheerleading.. Was referring to missed opportunity. Not cheerleading. Reporting on what I see. I'd be much happier if prices went down. They aren't.

No one is saying prices aren't up everywhere either. We are just taking about places where they are up much more than the averages.

If you want averages, buy index funds and call it day. We are trying to beat the averages not complain about what we can't control

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 10, 2021 - 6:03pm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1y7NGqfZteg

crash, by the primitves. this kinda sounds like a great bear anthem. you've definitely heard this on the radio somewhere or other, also the lego movie theme song....came out in 1988...i love it; !!!!

(if the market tanks, I'm just gonna play this song on a loop all day!)

not sure what the bull anthem is. eye of the tiger?

(Here you go way too fast
Don't slow down, you gonna crash
You should watch, watch your step
Don't lookout, gonna break your neck
So shut, shut your mouth
'Cos I'm not listenin' anyhow
I've had enough, enough of you
You know to last a lifetime through
So what do you want of me
Got no words of sympathy
And if I go around with you
You know that I'll get messed up too with you
Na nana nana na nana nanaaaa
Na nana nana na nana nanaaaa
Here you go way too fast
Don't slowdown, you gonna crash
You don't know, what's been goin' down
You've been runnin' all over town
So shut, shut your mouth
'Cos I'm not listenin' anyhow
I've had enough, enough of you
You know to last a lifetime through
So what do you want of me
Got no cure for misery
And if I go about with you
You know that I'll get messed up too with you
With you
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
With you, with you
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash
Na nana nana na nana nanaaa
We gonna crash

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 10, 2021 - 6:10pm.

eye of the tiger. proposed bullanthem. kinda cheesy but, it sorta works...

Rising up, back on the street
Did my time, took my chances
Went the distance, now I'm back on my feet
Just a man and his will to survive
So many times it happens too fast
You change your passion for glory
Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past
You must fight just to keep them alive
It's the eye of the tiger
It's the thrill of the fight
Rising up to the challenge of our rival
And the last known survivor
Stalks his prey in the night
And he's watching us all with the eye of the tiger
Face to face, out in the heat
Hanging tough, staying hungry
They stack the odds 'til we take to the street
For the kill with the skill to survive
It's the eye of the tiger
It's the thrill of the fight
Rising up to the challenge of our rival
And the last known survivor
Stalks his prey in the night
And he's watching us all with the eye of the tiger
Rising up straight to the top
Had the guts, got the glory
Went the distance, now I'm not going to stop
Just a man and his will to survive
It's the eye of the tiger
It's the thrill of the fight
Rising up to the challenge of our rival
And the last known survivor
Stalks his prey in the night
And he's watching us all with the eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger
The eye of the tiger

Submitted by Coronita on June 10, 2021 - 6:26pm.

deadzone wrote:
XBoxBoy wrote:
Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yet amazingly with so many folks supposedly leaving CA rent and prices in CA are also going up as much or more.

We've gone over this. Most of the people leaving the state are the lower income people who can afford to stay. Higher net worth/income people still move here.

and not all of CA is ridiculously priced..

Is there data to support the argument that the people leaving the state are lower income or is that something we just tell ourselves? I'm not saying it's not true, I'm just wondering if it is supported by the data.

(Worth mentioning, I've seen data that says lower income people are more likely to move than higher income people, but that's not the same as arguing that the pool of people in CA is changing because the lower income people are leaving and higher income people are moving here.)

No there is no data, this is just a theory pushed by two people on Piggington (who just happen to be the two most prolific posters) based purely on anecdotal evidence.

There might be some truth to it, but if so, it is due to foreign and Wall St. investment money buying in CA which in my opinion are the two main factors pushing up the extreme prices.

I don't know if you were were referring to me or not, but in case you were, I'm not really trying to push a theory or not. I'm just offering what I've seen at least based on what I've seen during the demand as applied to my own rentals. Carmel Valley was a pain in the ass to rent out 1 year ago for me because the tenant pool of people were pretty pain in the ass-ish...I guess when you ask for $4300/month, they feel they are entitled to the world and wanted a 6 month lease at best.

This year, post pandemic, got a lot of interest from people migrating south... A much less pain in the ass tenant pool at $5000/month...Some wanting to sign a 3-4 year lease, which obviously I said no.
Others renting homes at this price point said the same thing. Much easier to rent higher cost SFH now than it was 1-2 years ago.

if you really want to delve into this, I guess you can contact this journalist...

https://www.latimes.com/california/story...

Submitted by EconProf on June 10, 2021 - 6:56pm.

Whoa, guys, calm down.
Let's get back to my original thesis, that CA is now losing population (census bureau) for the first time in its history, and that will affect RE in the long run. Largely because of government policies at the state, county, city, and school board level, CA has the highest or next-to-highest taxes and regulations, delivers the worst services (schools, roads, prisons, etc.) compared to nearby states, and has the nation's highest poverty rate when cost of living is taken into account. These trends will only worsen as CA's policies attract the homeless, welfare-dependent people from colder states, and now, from the world. Incentives matter, and the poor move accordingly.
They will saddle CA taxpayers and businesses with an even greater burden in the future, so taxes will rise and the exodus will accelerate, especially for higher-bracket taxpayers.
CA's finances today look OK due to the flood of federal COVID largess and temporarily low interest rates. But history shows there is a reckoning in the form of stagflation in the near future combined with vastly higher interest rates. Long run, it does not bode well for CA real estate compared to its neighbors.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 10, 2021 - 7:10pm.

It's the eye of the tiger
It's the thrill of the fight
Rising up to the challenge of our rival

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 10, 2021 - 7:11pm.

Here you go way too fast
Don't slow down, you gonna crash
You should watch, watch your step
Don't lookout, gonna break your neck

Submitted by Coronita on June 10, 2021 - 8:35pm.

i dont know considering CA is a large state, i think its pretty amazing despite all the expenses, CA still managed to pull off a budget surplus. and now its pretty low in the infection rate.

Im happy for you that you moved to UT for your kids EconProf. its nice to be next to family wherever one may be.

i think you should be happy with that decision and stop feeling you need to find internet validation that you made the right decision.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2021 - 9:25pm.

My neighbor went to Idaho. He complained about all the things in CA he didn't like. Truth be told he made money here he never would have made anywhere else and now doesn't want to pay taxes or give back to the system that made him wealthy. He sucks. I'm glad he left

Utah is growing on the excess overflow of CA. If CA suffers Utah is toast. There is nothing unique or remarkable about it other than a few national parks

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 10, 2021 - 9:55pm.

Wait...why is homelessness a sign of a failing liberal state?

Isn't homelessness a sign of a ruthlessly capitalist society. Can't afford a roof? Fuck you. Sleep on the ground.

Sounds pretty brutally market oriented solution to high housing prices.

Submitted by flyer on June 10, 2021 - 10:29pm.

EP, glad to hear things are working out in Utah. Congrats on your investments. Those, along with the wealth you accumulated in CA should serve you and your family well for many years to come.

Even though the information you're sharing about your new investments is interesting, I honestly don't believe you're ever going to receive the validation you seek here, but you shouldn't care, because it seems you did the right thing for you and your family, and, regardless of mere opinions on an internet forum, that's all that really matters.

It's an interesting fact to note that, in the final analysis, none of us will even need a house, but it's nice to pass things along to family to enjoy--as we are now--and so the inevitable cycle goes.

Submitted by Coronita on June 10, 2021 - 11:03pm.

I think there's one huge advantage of CA over Utah. It's THE place to be if you want to be in the film industry... Especially in the adult film industry....And we know how lucrative the film industries can be, right flyer?

You can't do that in Utah, for various reasons...Something about religion and alcohol...I mean, if Evelyn Lin went to BYU instead of UCSD, there probably wouldn't have been an Evelyn Lin. What a tragedy that would have been

Submitted by Coronita on June 10, 2021 - 11:06pm.

...but personally, I can't wait for housing prices to crash across the U.S....I personally wouldn't mind a repeat of what we saw in 2009-2011...This time it will be different. I'll be racking and stacking as many houses as i can and won't be quibbling over $5000-10000k like I foolishly did last time. Those were penny foolish decisions last time. Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen to the extent it did again. That's really too bad.

Submitted by deadzone on June 10, 2021 - 11:17pm.

EconProf wrote:
Whoa, guys, calm down.
Let's get back to my original thesis, that CA is now losing population (census bureau) for the first time in its history, and that will affect RE in the long run. Largely because of government policies at the state, county, city, and school board level, CA has the highest or next-to-highest taxes and regulations, delivers the worst services (schools, roads, prisons, etc.) compared to nearby states, and has the nation's highest poverty rate when cost of living is taken into account. These trends will only worsen as CA's policies attract the homeless, welfare-dependent people from colder states, and now, from the world. Incentives matter, and the poor move accordingly.
They will saddle CA taxpayers and businesses with an even greater burden in the future, so taxes will rise and the exodus will accelerate, especially for higher-bracket taxpayers.
CA's finances today look OK due to the flood of federal COVID largess and temporarily low interest rates. But history shows there is a reckoning in the form of stagflation in the near future combined with vastly higher interest rates. Long run, it does not bode well for CA real estate compared to its neighbors.

Maybe in the long, long run these CA policies will have an impact but I definitely don't see that in the short term. Also, when the Federal covid bailouts go away and if interest rates go up, RE is going to get pummeled everywhere not just CA.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 10, 2021 - 11:59pm.

The top employers in Utah. First two started in other countries. #3 is local hospital system. #4 is an actual Utah born and bred enterprise. It's also an MLM scam

https://www.zippia.com/advice/largest-co...

Submitted by an on June 10, 2021 - 11:40pm.

Coronita wrote:
...but personally, I can't wait for housing prices to crash across the U.S....I personally wouldn't mind a repeat of what we saw in 2009-2011...This time it will be different. I'll be racking and stacking as many houses as i can and won't be quibbling over $5000-10000k like I foolishly did last time. Those were penny foolish decisions last time. Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen to the extent it did again. That's really too bad.

You and me both. I'm packed and ready. Bring on the repeat of 2008.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 11, 2021 - 12:00am.

Make that three

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